Mavs & Cavs Draft Pick Watch

Post #1 » by **Jamaaliver** » Mon Oct 8, 2018 11:44 pm

Just a place to discuss the standings in relation to the teams that owe us protected picks in 2019...

I expect both picks to convey next summer. It's just a matter of how lucky we are and where they fall. The best case scenario is for Mavs to miss playoffs by a large margin giving Atlanta a second top- 10 selection. Cavaliers would essentially need to just miss out on the playoffs, giving us another draft pick in the late lottery.

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Post #2 » by **Jamaaliver** » Mon Oct 8, 2018 11:44 pm

HMFFL, is this you, bud?

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Post #3 » by **Jamaaliver** » Tue Oct 9, 2018 3:04 am

If these predictions were to hold, we would only see two selections convey.

Our own top-4 selection and the Mavs selection between 10-14.

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jayu70 · Post #4 » by **jayu70** » Tue Oct 9, 2018 1:59 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:If these predictions were to hold, we would only see two selections convey.

Our own top-4 selection and the Mavs selection between 10-14.

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Question - who is this guy? Said he's a golf odds maker? Does he do basketball odds too. Just asking.

Post #5 » by **Jamaaliver** » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:06 pm

How the Mavericks could make the playoffs … or lose 50 games

Dallas, last season, was historically bad in close games. That 24-win squad played in close games 50 times, the second-most in the league, and won just 12 of them, by far the worst percentage among any NBA team last year. (Close games are defined by a five-point margin either way within the final five minutes.)

They underperformed their net rating by about nine games, which was the second-worst result for any team in the past 15 years. In a normal season, the Mavericks should have finished 33-49, according to expected win/loss formula. Consider that, and consider the team adding two new starters, and it’s no surprise this roster might have the most variance in the entire league.

The Mavericks, barring catastrophe, won’t tank this season. It’s almost certain they’ll lose their draft pick, a top-five protected first rounder owed to Atlanta due to the Luka Doncic trade. The over/under most commonly cited for this team is 34.5 wins, but Dallas sees itself clearing that number easily.

The Athletic

socialsavant · Post #6 » by **socialsavant** » Fri Oct 12, 2018 3:18 pm

I think people are really overrating the Mavs this year. I don't think they finish bottom 5 (I think the pick conveys) but I think they finish far away from the playoffs. You don't go from winning 24 to 40 by adding a rookie and an aging big man. The western playoff teams in no particular order, in my opinion, are as follows, GSW, LAL, SAS, OKC, POR, HOU, UTA, and NOP. I think fighting for spots will be DEN and MIN. Therefore, I don't think the Mavs finish above 10th in the west. I'm curious as to why people think they'll be so much better this year. It can't simply be the additions of Doncic and Jordan.

Post #7 » by **ATL Boy** » Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:44 pm

I won't sticky just to avoid jinxing anything. But this is definitely going to be one of the threads I visit most often this season.

ChokeFasncists · Post #8 » by **ChokeFasncists** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:10 am

socialsavant wrote:I think people are really overrating the Mavs this year. I don't think they finish bottom 5 (I think the pick conveys) but I think they finish far away from the playoffs. You don't go from winning 24 to 40 by adding a rookie and an aging big man. The western playoff teams in no particular order, in my opinion, are as follows, GSW, LAL, SAS, OKC, POR, HOU, UTA, and NOP. I think fighting for spots will be DEN and MIN. Therefore, I don't think the Mavs finish above 10th in the west. I'm curious as to why people think they'll be so much better this year. It can't simply be the additions of Doncic and Jordan.

Growth of the sophomore DSJ I suppose.

But it's the wild wild west, too competitive.

macd-gm · Post #9 » by **macd-gm** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:55 pm

socialsavant wrote:I think people are really overrating the Mavs this year. I don't think they finish bottom 5 (I think the pick conveys) but I think they finish far away from the playoffs. You don't go from winning 24 to 40 by adding a rookie and an aging big man. The western playoff teams in no particular order, in my opinion, are as follows, GSW, LAL, SAS, OKC, POR, HOU, UTA, and NOP. I think fighting for spots will be DEN and MIN. Therefore, I don't think the Mavs finish above 10th in the west. I'm curious as to why people think they'll be so much better this year. It can't simply be the additions of Doncic and Jordan.

Agree that the West has too many good teams for Dallas to get in. Although we have to remember that Dallas was tanking hard. Cuban even got something like a trillion dollar fine for not so subtlely sending the message to lose. Still there are definitely 10 teams ahead of them.

steady · Post #10 » by **steady** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:41 pm

Cavaliers pick -- top ten protected. Chances of the pick ending up in top ten is more likely than not right now, and if that happens, it would not convey to Hawks. So I am not sure whether to root for Cavs to win or lose right now.

Is it better for Hawks to lose when Hawks play the Cavs this year to make it more likely the Cavs make it out of bottom ten teams?? Hawks have two early games against them ...

Re Mavs pick, almost no chance the pick does not convey since it is only top 5 protected and Mavs are expected to be a much better basketball team than they were last year.

If that were not enough, Hawks have particular incentive to defeat Mavs because of Trae- Luka trade, and the resulting comparisons that will dog both of them.

Therefore, 10/24/18 at the new State Farm Arena, against Mavs, will be one of the early important games in season for Hawks

ChokeFasncists · Post #11 » by **ChokeFasncists** » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:40 pm

steady wrote:Cavaliers pick -- top ten protected. Chances of the pick ending up in top ten is more likely than not right now, and if that happens, it would not convey to Hawks. So I am not sure whether to root for Cavs to win or lose right now.

Is it better for Hawks to lose when Hawks play the Cavs this year to make it more likely the Cavs make it out of bottom ten teams?? Hawks have two early games against them ...

Lower frpick is better than no pick or srpicks. Love be healthy! Sexton for ROTY!

Post #12 » by **Jamaaliver** » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:12 pm

Western Conference tiers, and a league scout’s team-by-team take

Dallas Mavericks

Outlook: If nothing else, the Mavericks will be fun to watch because it could be Dirk Nowitzki’s swan song (once he gets healthy, of course). But there’s much more to the Dallas roster than that – much more. And while it won’t lead to a playoff berth, it should be enough to put them in the right direction after last season’s 24-win campaign.

Scout’s take: “Well, they do have some hope because they have two very good players in the backcourt to look forward to building with. Doncic is the real deal. He plays with a flair. He plays to the crowd. He’s a phenomenal passer. He’s not scared of a big moment. He’s young, but he doesn’t care. He’s not going to be intimidated by the moment at all. He plays with a swagger that’s really kind of beyond his years. And with (second-year point guard) Dennis Smith, that gives them some hope going forward. Now Harrison (Barnes) isn’t ready to start the year yet (the veteran small forward is recovering from a right hamstring injury)…so that’s a question mark. And then obviously they have upgraded at center with (DeAndre Jordan). Dirk, he’s not anywhere near even being ready to play yet (he has an ankle injury). And when he does, it’s going to be tough on him physically.

So not a playoff team, but there is some hope there because of their young backcourt.”

The Athletic

steady · Post #13 » by **steady** » Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:59 pm

The Mavs and Cavs picks are tantalizing. but also important to remember how weak the 2019 draft class is. So importance of FRPs is not to the level it was this past summer. ...

hawkmanreturns · Post #14 » by **hawkmanreturns** » Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:43 pm

steady wrote:The Mavs and Cavs picks are tantalizing. but also important to remember how weak the 2019 draft class is. So importance of FRPs is not to the level it was this past summer. ...

If the Hawks get 2 or maybe even 3 Lottery picks in the Draft, there is no down side to that even in a 'weak' Draft. Those picks are all very tradable assets. If the Hawks get 2 in the top 10, that's 2 VERY good prospects.

Post #15 » by **ATL Boy** » Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:11 am

Both teams lost tonight.

Cavs lost in Toronto, that's not much of a surprise.

Mavs getting blown out by Phoenix makes me hopeful about that pick. They aren't bad enough to have higher lotto odds than the bottom-rung teams (like Atlanta), but they don't look like a playoff team in that Western Conference. I said it in the offseason, and they showed it at least on opening night.

ChokeFasncists · Post #16 » by **ChokeFasncists** » Thu Oct 18, 2018 5:34 am

I suppose the Mavs need Barnes back bad, Dirk would have helped as well.

CP War Hawks · Post #17 » by **CP War Hawks** » Thu Oct 18, 2018 6:02 am

steady wrote:Cavaliers pick -- top ten protected. Chances of the pick ending up in top ten is more likely than not right now, and if that happens, it would not convey to Hawks. So I am not sure whether to root for Cavs to win or lose right now.

Is it better for Hawks to lose when Hawks play the Cavs this year to make it more likely the Cavs make it out of bottom ten teams?? Hawks have two early games against them ...

Re Mavs pick, almost no chance the pick does not convey since it is only top 5 protected and Mavs are expected to be a much better basketball team than they were last year.

If that were not enough, Hawks have particular incentive to defeat Mavs because of Trae- Luka trade, and the resulting comparisons that will dog both of them.

Therefore, 10/24/18 at the new State Farm Arena, against Mavs, will be one of the early important games in season for Hawks

Just about everything you said is true. The team is still in tank mode, so losing just about every game makes sense right now vs. the Cavs and lesser extent the Mavs. Dallas just isn't that good this year, considering they have next to no bench. Doncic could be a stud, but he should be inconsistent for the next 2 years as DSJ is still very inconsistent. If one of their top guys go down, it should be tank season for them so it's better to get that pick asap perhaps.

Fully expect that pick to be 6-10 as I could name a good 4-5 teams that will lose more than them. At this point I'd rather the Cavs tank and be just good enough for that pick to convey in 2020.

atlantabbq99 · Post #18 » by **atlantabbq99** » Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:53 am

Smith and Doncic looked really bad on both offense and defense in the first NBA game together, they will get better in the season, but hopefully when Barnes gets back he can win some games for the Mavs to keep the pick alive for the Hawks.

Post #19 » by **Jamaaliver** » Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:37 am

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steady · Post #20 » by **steady** » Thu Oct 18, 2018 3:19 pm

Trae
33 minutes 14-6-5 on 5-14 shots with a 3 pointer and 4 FTA

Doncic
32 minutes 10-8-4 on 5-16 shooting with 0-5 3 ptrs and 0 FTA

After starting with 6 points and 3 assists in first quarter, Doncic noticeably cooled down. There were long stretches where he was invisible then when he tried to make move to basket he missed numerous floaters. His D was ok but not amazing. He s not that fast. He infrequently had the ball or had people try to attack his defense, unlike Trae who it seened was in the Knicks crosshairs for much of night on both O and D

I stand by my prediction that Trae is going to be fine

Edit - also Suns looked good. Ayton was a force, Josh Jackson and Ariza both had great moments, they seemed cohesive, Booker just back from injury was his same self, Suns led by 10-15 for almost all of night. Mavs by contrast looked discombobulated -