Rookie of the Year Watch

[Jamaaliver]

We got ourselves a legit contender for the award.

Luka's more polished.

Ayton has the NBA-ready body.

Trae's just got natural feel for the game...and a green light to shoot all day.

It should be fun to watch all season, knowing our boy should be among the contenders for this award all season.

Ranking the Top 10 NBA Rookie of the Year Candidates for 2018-19

1. Deandre Ayton, C, Phoenix Suns



Along with obvious talent and skill, NBA Rookies of the Year also need the physical strength and opportunity in terms of minutes and shots. Every box is checked for Deandre Ayton, the draft's No. 1 pick who's 7'1", 250 pounds and appears locked into a high-usage starting role.

Debuting with 24 points, nine rebounds and three blocks, it's already looking easy for the Phoenix Suns' new center of the present and future. Even if the Suns finish at the bottom of the standings, Ayton's individual numbers will be too much in a vote that favors statistics.



2. Luka Doncic, G/F, Dallas Mavericks



Last year's Euroleague MVP, Luka Doncic is as prepared as anyone for the 2018-19 NBA season. But will he score enough to win the Rookie of the Year award?

He'll build a case by checking boxes across the board with versatility that touches the assist, rebound, three-point and steal columns. Doncic must ultimately follow Ben Simmons' recipe for success to earn votes.



7. Trae Young, PG, Atlanta Hawks



Inefficiency and losses will make it difficult for Trae Young to compete for Rookie of the Year with the other top picks in the draft.

He'll still lead the class in assists and experience games when he catches fire and scores in bunches. Young's playmaking and passing should be there every game, though, and he'll go through streaks when his three-ball is on and his confidence is high that lead to 20-point efforts.

The production will be there for Young, but it will be overshadowed by a potentially brutal field-goal percentage and the Atlanta Hawks' record, which will be one of the worst in the league.

Bleacher Report

[Jamaaliver]

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[~Wretch~]

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I found this interesting on my feed this morning. I don't like direct player comparisons and I never will, but he's in some good company here. Now it's just a matter of consistency. Which...he looked a lot better picking his shots and attacking the lane, but I still have concerns about consistency on his shot. If he does get the nod, I think it'll be because of his playmaking - which is very consistent.

If it weren't for that nagging "Hawks doubt" feeling regarding his consistency, I'd have picked him. As it were, I have Doncic as ROY. I think he'll be more consistent and his team is built better for a few more wins than us.

[jayu70]

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I found this interesting on my feed this morning. I don't like direct player comparisons and I never will, but he's in some good company here. Now it's just a matter of consistency. Which...he looked a lot better picking his shots and attacking the lane, but I still have concerns about consistency on his shot. If he does get the nod, I think it'll be because of his playmaking - which is very consistent.

If it weren't for that nagging "Hawks doubt" feeling regarding his consistency, I'd have picked him. As it were, I have Doncic as ROY. I think he'll be more consistent and his team is built better for a few more wins than us.

This is such a real thing. I want to not temper my excitement regarding Trae but in the back of my mine - I'm like 'this is so AWESOME but it's only one game, relax'. But I'm thinking ahead to how great he can be .
It's tough being a Hawks fan, but when you're in, you're in.

[macd-gm]

Luka seemed to be abusing .....Derrick Rose? I guess he was getting switched onto him?

[Jamaaliver]

Luka seemed to be abusing .....Derrick Rose? I guess he was getting switched onto him?

YES!!

They are running 1-4 PnR with Luka as the mismatch PF.

His post game is extremely ugly...but seemingly effective. I suspect we'll see Trae switched on him a time or two on Wednesday.

[Jamaaliver]

Trae as the best offensive rookie and absolute worst defensive rookie through the first few days.

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[macd-gm]

Trae as the best offensive rookie and absolute worst defensive rookie through the first few days.

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Tell me again what stats they use to gauge individual defensive rating in this chart. I'm still at a loss.

[Jamaaliver]

Trae as the best offensive rookie and absolute worst defensive rookie through the first few days.

Tell me again what stats they use to gauge individual defensive rating in this chart. I'm still at a loss.

I've always assumed it was cumulative +/- of some sort.

Their website is somewhat unclear. I only became aware of it last season, and it seemed in line with what most other metrics confirmed (and what the eye test concluded).


Again, nothing too definitive, but helpful as a guide to strengths and weaknesses of specific players.

[socialsavant]

Cumulative + / - is not a good stat. Worthless stat that doesn't account for a player's team.

[macd-gm]

Here's what i found:
As such, the formula for TPA is rather simple. It’s broken down into two parts—offensive points added (OPA) and defensive points saved (DPS)—and each is calculated in the same vein.

OPA is derived by adjusting offensive box plus/minus (OBPM) to account for the number of possessions the player in question is present for. Similarly, DPS is derived from a similar adjustment of defensive box plus/minus (DBPM) with that same number of possessions. OBPM and DBPM, both calculated by Basketball-Reference.com, estimate the per-100-possessions value of a player on either end of the court.

Still kind of strange to me though. A starter who's getting heavy minutes is going to be on the floor when you get beat pretty bad. Like the Hawks are 1-2 and got beat by 20 in the two losses. So seems like anyone who played heavy minutes in those games is going to have a bad DPS.

[Jamaaliver]

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And now...

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After being traded for each other in a draft-night swap, No. 3 overall pick Luka Doncic and No. 5 pick Trae Young are destined to be connected throughout their NBA careers. Though it's far too early to draw any conclusions, as Doncic and Young prepare to square off for the first time on Wednesday in Atlanta's home opener, let's check in on how both top prospects have started their NBA careers and what that says about their potential.

Young finding the range off the dribble

Thus far this season, just two players have attempted more pull-up 3-pointers per game than Young (6.0), according to NBA Advanced Stats: James Harden (8.7) and Kemba Walker (8.3). Of course, there was never any doubt Young would attempt those kinds of long 3s off the dribble, a signature dating back to his high school days. The question was whether they would go in.

The Hawks have relied heavily on Young, who is finishing 26 percent of the team's plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover and handing out an assist on nearly 10 percent more, the league's 12th-highest combined usage among players with at least 100 minutes through Monday. Given that, it's surprising how sure-handed Young has been, turning the ball over just 2.7 times per game.

Young could certainly stand to get more involved on the defensive end, where he has accumulated just two steals thus far. Atlanta has allowed a 117.5 defensive rating with Young on the court, per NBA Advanced Stats, as compared to 89.6 points per 100 possessions when he sits -- though it's too early for those numbers to stabilize.


Doncic prolific, though mistake-prone

Unlike Young, Doncic has experienced the typical rookie struggles with turnovers, coughing up the ball 13 times in three games -- a full 20 percent of the plays he's finished.

I wouldn't really attribute Doncic's turnovers to forcing the issue. He's been called for traveling four times, including a rare carry, and has a couple of times simply failed to connect with DeAndre Jordan on passes. Those plays are unlikely to continue as Doncic adjusts to the NBA and his teammates. That's good news, because, after a 5-of-16 debut where he looked heavy-legged, Doncic has made 50 percent of his field goals the last two games with an effective field-goal percentage of 61.7 percent thanks to seven 3-pointers.

Unlike Young, whose 3s off the dribble typically come either out of pick-and-roll or while waiting for one to come, Doncic gets most of his pull-up 3s on stepbacks in isolation.

Both Doncic and Young could stand to get to the free throw line more often, something that helped both players pad their efficiency last season when shots weren't falling. Skeptical scouts believed Doncic and Young were getting the benefit of favorable whistles, and so far neither player has gotten to the line at even a league average rate.

ESPN Insider

[Jamaaliver]

How do you think ROY is going to play out? -- Salil Goorha

These related questions are happily not irrelevant to the Grizzlies, of course. It’s early. No team has played even five games yet. But check out these early game averages from this year’s Top 5 picks:

• Deandre Ayton: 14-11-4 (21.2 PER)
  
• Marvin Bagley III: 13-7-1 (18.4 PER)
  
• Luka Doncic: 18-4-6 (11.5 PER)
  
• Jaren Jackson Jr.: 15-6-1 (21.7 PER)
  
• Trae Young: 23-8-3 (19.4 PER)

as for early ROY predictions. Today I’ll go with this, a slight change from my season preview: 1. Deandre Ayton, 2. Luka Doncic, 3. Trae Young, 4. Jaren Jackson Jr., 5. Marvin Bagley.

Daily Memphian

[Jamaaliver]

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what was billed as one of the marquee rookie matchups of the year ended up being a sloppy, disjointed affair, which is actually fairly appropriate. The rookies looked like rookies, with the exception of a few moments of brilliance. Doncic started out on fire, with 12 points in the first six minutes of the game. But he cooled off tremendously after that, finishing with 21 points, nine rebounds, two assists, and three turnovers on 7-of-18 shooting...

On the other side was Trae Young, who finished the night with 17 points, five assists, four rebounds, and five turnovers. He had the opposite night of Doncic, starting off 1-for-9 from the field before finishing 3-of-12 and doing well late to get to the free throw line, where he was 10-of-13 to help ice a comeback win for Atlanta.

Young’s finish was to the Hawks what Doncic’s start was — a lift from the star rookie within a huge run.

For those hoping Wednesday would provide some referendum on who won the draft-night trade, I’m sorry to disappoint you. That was never going to be the case, no matter the outcome, but even the most ardent supporters of either would have a tough time coming away from Wednesday’s battle feeling the confidence to say their guy was significantly better than the other.

Spoiler:

Some highlights:

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[Jamaaliver]

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The Wednesday night clash between the Atlanta Hawks and Dallas Mavericks didn't just result in a 111-104 comeback victory for Atlanta. It also highlighted the glaring differences between two of the league's more promising backcourt talents as they went head-to-head for the first time in their professional careers—differences that stem not just from their current styles, but also their histories.

What concerns us most is the continued discrepancies in the two disparate styles, as early returns have made it abundantly clear we're dealing with a steady, consistent contributor who's already adjusting to the NBA and a boom-or-bust guard capable of exploding like few other first-year players.

Despite his shooting struggles in the Hawks' only scheduled appearance on national television, Young has already proved he belongs. He demonstrated his ability to create space against tight defense, and he was able to maintain a simultaneous focus on calling his own number and hitting his teammates right between the numbers. Young will need to develop a floater to maximize his offensive arsenal and keep defenses honest, but his distributing is so precise that he can still make a positive impact while misfiring.