IF report is true, the tank-itude in the front office is now over and done

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

I see a few have replied since last night... unfortunately, I'm short of time this morning. But I believe this probably lends a lot of substance to the conversation that was being had, because it's not apparent that people have a good handle on just how much more advantageous it is to own a #1-#5 pick, and disadvantageous it is to count on getting lucky with a #6-#15 pick.

[Geaux_Hawks]

I see a few have replied since last night... unfortunately, I'm short of time this morning. But I believe this probably lends a lot of substance to the conversation that was being had, because it's not apparent that people have a good handle on just how much more advantageous it is to own a #1-#5 pick, and disadvantageous it is to count on getting lucky with a #6-#15 pick.

I understand the logic. I just don't see it possible to trade 5 & 6 this year for a hope of getting in the top 5 next year. On top of that, projecting next year to be a strong draft. We're better off just tanking again and using our own pick.

[graymule]

Drafting our cornerstone? I'm all for that IF WE CAN. Players are not robots, so you just never know what you're getting.
In any year, you ask "Is this player going to be better than any of the 12 or so on our active roster?" If not, you pass.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

I see a few have replied since last night... unfortunately, I'm short of time this morning. But I believe this probably lends a lot of substance to the conversation that was being had, because it's not apparent that people have a good handle on just how much more advantageous it is to own a #1-#5 pick, and disadvantageous it is to count on getting lucky with a #6-#15 pick.

I understand the logic. I just don't see it possible to trade 5 & 6 this year for a hope of getting in the top 5 next year. On top of that, projecting next year to be a strong draft. We're better off just tanking again and using our own pick.

To say that "it isn't possible" is a pretty strong statement in light of the point that we just traded a #3 for a #5 and something Schlenk says his people projected to be in the range of #6-#10.

That on its own, without digging back into the history of NBA trades into the top 5, suggests strongly that it's not that unreasonable to be able to take a #5 and what might be a #6 and get something projected to be top 5 next off-season.

And if you go back a few pages in this very thread, you have someone protesting the exact opposite of your assertion... saying in effect that we can somehow already know that the draft inventory for 2020 is at least as bad as 2019.

No one can really say. It's too early.

But one thing we can really say. There is very little talent in THIS draft that very many people project to become eventually elite.

So, what choice do you really have then, if you're Travis Schlenk?

[EazyRoc]

What if you do that and your pick lands even later and further away from 1-5 ?

Trading out of drafts is such a crapshoot. Probably why you don’t see guys trading out of drafts all together.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

Just a very few posts back, I acknowledged that weakness in my argument. And I pointed out the weakness of your side of the argument.

There is no no-risk move you can make. Making a move is risky. Standing pat is risky.

But the difference-maker, assuming you trust your GM's ability to assess the draft inventory (and that's the one thing I do trust Travis Schlenk to do well), is to assess what you know.

And if what you know is that your GM doesn't perceive a way to acquire an elite/cornerstone talent out of this current inventory, then the decision makes itself... you go into draft night looking for the best offer you can get.

Though, that's not to say you give the picks away, either... if you can't get what you can judge to be equivalent value, then you are, indeed, left to have to turn the picks into warm bodies and hope that maybe somehow you can trade them or other assets for a high pick in 2020, realizing that this is almost certainly your last time finishing with a bad-enough W/L record to draft high on your own merits.

Mind you, though, there are only so many good stats to go around, given the limitations of a 48-minute game, and only 5 players on the floor at a time.... you might very well gain something exciting in this draft, but only to see another talent like Trae or Collins diminish in value partially as a result of having added the new blood. In fact, that is routinely what happens. So that's also not without it's drawback, in the quest to acquire the pick that will deliver to your roster the elite/cornerstone guy.

[jayu70]

I see a few have replied since last night... unfortunately, I'm short of time this morning. But I believe this probably lends a lot of substance to the conversation that was being had, because it's not apparent that people have a good handle on just how much more advantageous it is to own a #1-#5 pick, and disadvantageous it is to count on getting lucky with a #6-#15 pick.

I understand the logic. I just don't see it possible to trade 5 & 6 this year for a hope of getting in the top 5 next year. On top of that, projecting next year to be a strong draft. We're better off just tanking again and using our own pick.

To say that "it isn't possible" is a pretty strong statement in light of the point that we just traded a #3 for a #5 and something Schlenk says his people projected to be in the range of #6-#10.

That on its own, without digging back into the history of NBA trades into the top 5, suggests strongly that it's not that unreasonable to be able to take a #5 and what might be a #6 and get something projected to be top 5 next off-season.

And if you go back a few pages in this very thread, you have someone protesting the exact opposite of your assertion... saying in effect that we can somehow already know that the draft inventory for 2020 is at least as bad as 2019.

No one can really say. It's too early.

But one thing we can really say. There is very little talent in THIS draft that very many people project to become eventually elite.

So, what choice do you really have then, if you're Travis Schlenk?

Traded DOWN 2 spots and received additionalcompensation , not totally OUT.
Entirely different from your initial proposal to not pick at all.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

Excuse the question, and the natural observation that follows...

Was the trade...

Definite #3 for

Definite #5 plus a 2019 pick conditional on being below #5, and that Schlenk has told us that his staff projected to be in the 8-10 neighborhood?

Then...

That's not so different from...

Definite #5 plus definite #6 for

Something that your staff projects to be in the 1-5 neighborhood in 2020

... that one should consider it "not possible."

Those two trade frameworks are similar in nature.

Yes, it takes two to tango. I've already addressed the point that you don't know until draft night exactly who is willing to come to the table, and what they'll be willing to offer. But it ***is*** altogether possible.

And to my point... reasonable.

[jayu70]

Trading 1 pick for 2 picks is the same as trading 2 picks for 1.... OK ....I'll see myself out.....again.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

I suppose you think that's a clever comment, but I can't be concerned with that.

Dallas thought that trading those 2 picks that they did--and more specifically, the picks as identified above, in order to gain a player that their people evidently considered to be a future elite--was worth it.

Atlanta traded their one #3 pick because, according to Schlenk when he talked about it, they considered Young and Doncic to be about as likely as the other to become a future elite... so they considered it to be more valuable to have the 2 picks that Dalllas offered.

Who's wrong? Who's right? Both? Neither?

Doesn't matter to this conversation.

The very fact that two NBA GMs thought THAT deal was reasonable validates that a deal with something very similar to those same assets could be exchanged again in June. It *is* reasonable.

[Geaux_Hawks]

I see a few have replied since last night... unfortunately, I'm short of time this morning. But I believe this probably lends a lot of substance to the conversation that was being had, because it's not apparent that people have a good handle on just how much more advantageous it is to own a #1-#5 pick, and disadvantageous it is to count on getting lucky with a #6-#15 pick.

I understand the logic. I just don't see it possible to trade 5 & 6 this year for a hope of getting in the top 5 next year. On top of that, projecting next year to be a strong draft. We're better off just tanking again and using our own pick.

To say that "it isn't possible" is a pretty strong statement in light of the point that we just traded a #3 for a #5 and something Schlenk says his people projected to be in the range of #6-#10.

That on its own, without digging back into the history of NBA trades into the top 5, suggests strongly that it's not that unreasonable to be able to take a #5 and what might be a #6 and get something projected to be top 5 next off-season.

And if you go back a few pages in this very thread, you have someone protesting the exact opposite of your assertion... saying in effect that we can somehow already know that the draft inventory for 2020 is at least as bad as 2019.

No one can really say. It's too early.

But one thing we can really say. There is very little talent in THIS draft that very many people project to become eventually elite.

So, what choice do you really have then, if you're Travis Schlenk?

I didn't say that it's not possible. I said I don't see it possible. There's a lot of variables in trading 2 picks that are # 5 & 6 for a low chance at finding the actual teams that will pick top 5 in a draft that is a full year and some change away. Let's say we did identify that there's 3 elite prospects next year. Now you have to determine who in the top 5 teams will have the best odds at picking top 3. We're going to assume you have to be in the top 3 to get one of the 3 elites of course.

Keep in mind that the 2020 season hasn't started. Don't know who will get hurt. Who's going to overachieve. Who's going to get in on the tank mission for top 3. Who might make some moves to improve. What free agents are going where. What player(s) might get traded from or to another team mid=season Don't know how the ping pong balls will actually drop etc.. Oh by the way, we don't even know what will happen to those elite prospects over the course of the college season, but just to eliminate the college season being a factor, we'll just say the 3 retain the elite status all season.

Like even with such a given of knowing that there's 3 elite prospects next year, who's really going to go out on a limb and trade their pick without top 3 protection?! That's a move that will get a GM fired the moment he agrees to do the trade without top 3 protection. So not only do we have to find a possible team with a top 5 pick willing to trade their pick with zero to little protection, but we also have to convince them to do that with picks 5 & 6 in what is considered to be a weak draft. We're asking another GM to just had over his job to essentially do us a favor.

An example of this would be when the Clippers traded their lottery pick projected to be mid lotto and it ends up at #4 in 2011. Just imagine if the Cavs had picked Kawhi at 4 that year(which it was mocks considering him that high). Very few picks are gift wrapped like that to another team. The ones that have, resulted in the GM not sticking around to long afterwards.

[Geaux_Hawks]

I suppose you think that's a clever comment, but I can't be concerned with that.

Dallas thought that trading those 2 picks that they did--and more specifically, the picks as identified above, in order to gain a player that their people evidently considered to be a future elite--was worth it.

Atlanta traded their one #3 pick because, according to Schlenk when he talked about it, they considered Young and Doncic to be about as likely as the other to become a future elite... so they considered it to be more valuable to have the 2 picks that Dalllas offered.

Who's wrong? Who's right? Both? Neither?

Doesn't matter to this conversation.

The very fact that two NBA GMs thought THAT deal was reasonable validates that a deal with something very similar to those same assets could be exchanged again in June. It *is* reasonable.

Huge difference here. Dallas KNEW who they were actually getting. We don't even know if a player we're seeking will even be available considering we're just doing a mulligan on the draft.

[_s_t_u_r_t_]

I understand the logic. I just don't see it possible to trade 5 & 6 this year for a hope of getting in the top 5 next year. On top of that, projecting next year to be a strong draft. We're better off just tanking again and using our own pick.

To say that "it isn't possible" is a pretty strong statement in light of the point that we just traded a #3 for a #5 and something Schlenk says his people projected to be in the range of #6-#10.

That on its own, without digging back into the history of NBA trades into the top 5, suggests strongly that it's not that unreasonable to be able to take a #5 and what might be a #6 and get something projected to be top 5 next off-season.

And if you go back a few pages in this very thread, you have someone protesting the exact opposite of your assertion... saying in effect that we can somehow already know that the draft inventory for 2020 is at least as bad as 2019.

No one can really say. It's too early.

But one thing we can really say. There is very little talent in THIS draft that very many people project to become eventually elite.

So, what choice do you really have then, if you're Travis Schlenk?

I didn't say that it's not possible. I said I don't see it possible.

So, you're saying, "Just because it's my perception doesn't mean that I fail to understand my perception could be flawed."... ?

Okay. That's actually refreshing in its own way. But too bad that distinction wasn't made clear in the original post, or maybe I wouldn't have had to go down that path to begin with.

There's a lot of variables in trading 2 picks that are # 5 & 6 for a low chance at finding the actual teams that will pick top 5 in a draft that is a full year and some change away. Let's say we did identify that there's 3 elite prospects next year. Now you have to determine who in the top 5 teams will have the best odds at picking top 3. We're going to assume you have to be in the top 3 to get one of the 3 elites of course.

Keep in mind that the 2020 season hasn't started. Don't know who will get hurt. Who's going to overachieve. Who's going to get in on the tank mission for top 3. Who might make some moves to improve. What free agents are going where. What player(s) might get traded from or to another team mid=season Don't know how the ping pong balls will actually drop etc.. Oh by the way, we don't even know what will happen to those elite prospects over the course of the college season, but just to eliminate the college season being a factor, we'll just say the 3 retain the elite status all season.

Like even with such a given of knowing that there's 3 elite prospects next year, who's really going to go out on a limb and trade their pick without top 3 protection?! That's a move that will get a GM fired the moment he agrees to do the trade without top 3 protection. So not only do we have to find a possible team with a top 5 pick willing to trade their pick with zero to little protection, but we also have to convince them to do that with picks 5 & 6 in what is considered to be a weak draft. We're asking another GM to just had over his job to essentially do us a favor.

An example of this would be when the Clippers traded their lottery pick projected to be mid lotto and it ends up at #4 in 2011. Just imagine if the Cavs had picked Kawhi at 4 that year(which it was mocks considering him that high). Very few picks are gift wrapped like that to another team. The ones that have, resulted in the GM not sticking around to long afterwards.

I skimmed this, admittedly, because I have appointments this morning, but I don't think I have any qualms... absolutely, there's a LOT to be taken into account.

But what you continue to seem so stubborn to admit remains... there is also risk to standing pat, and if there is NO ONE in THIS draft who qualifies in YOUR AND YOUR STAFF'S PROJECTIONS as becoming that elite guy, then THERE IS NO ALTERNATIVE but to first and foremost ATTEMPT to find that team who is a good trading partner.