The 2019 NBA Draft Lottery Thread

[Buzzard]

I'm glad you're giving AH some laughs even if it's been at my expense. He's been cryin' and whinin' the past few hours. You're a good friend, @spud.

I've posted about 10 times about how I think this draft could still be a success and I'm still very pumped about this team's future.

I'm just not willing to tolerate anyone pretending yesterday was a good outcome.

It was like a blown layup that loses a game. It sucks. You'll be thinking about it for a while. But you pick up and move on because it doesn't determine the course of a season. I just won't suffer anyone saying, "it was actually a good outcome that we missed that layup."

(Also, I bet your BBQ is fantastic. No offense intended.)

From an odds perspective, we really did have bad luck. 8th pick was less likely than the #1 overall pick and 10th was also a much less likely outcome for the Dallas pick than the 9th pick. Still if we look at what we actually lost it really is not at all that significant in terms of value. Let's compare our results; 8th (.09% odds) and 10th(26% odds), to the most likely outcome statistically which is 7th (26% odds) and 9th (50% odds). Can anyone really argue that we are in a terrible situation compared to what the most likely scenario would have been? It's virtually the same thing. From an odds perspective, yes, it was a dropoff but from a value perspective, we didn't really lose a lot of value. I don't see any potential top 10 picks outside of the top 3 that is really a significantly better prospect than anyone else IMO.

The small chance to move up was underwhelming. Bigger chance to move down was obvious. We got lucky last year and maybe that put some rose colored glasses on a few fans. I am good with this and glad we kept the Dallas pick since we did not get extremely lucky and end up with Zion.

Travis is going to shock some people again. Trading down to add someone like Doumbouva, Langford, Fernando, Bol Bol, or Hachimura; while also adding a future pick comes immediately to mind. Maybe he just shocks people with our two picks by taking who he thinks is better instead of listening to all the BS thrown around for the next month. Whether its a trade or two, who he drafts, maybe both, the Hawks will make some noise again. I am looking forward to it.

[Hawkamanic81]

Read on Twitter

Yeah, if you consider 29 wins “alright”.

This rebuild is already a failure. This franchise is poop. I regret selecting the Hawks as my fav team as a child.

If you are this miserable as a fan (and misguided) then maybe give it up. Your takes here are nonsense.

You might not like what I say, but oh well.

This team has a couple of players that people think are building blocks, but thry’re not. Seriously, both Young and Collins are terrible defensive players. Both of them. Young is an inefficient scorer that also turns the ball over ton in addition to the horrible.

Collins offensive game is largely junk baskets and his sect for a front court player. He isn’t much of a passer or a traditional in the paint scorer. He doesn’t box out well and he doesn’t do too much on defense.

Hawk fan should tend to overvalue the players, but both of these players have issues. These playoffs show that defense does still matter if you want to win in the playoffs. You’re not winning with such bad defenders being your core places.

The Hawks now have a slew of mediocre draft picks. So, much help can’t be expected. Nobody of importance is coming via FA’s.

This is setting up to be a 1st or 2nd round exit at best.

[Hawkamanic81]

Yeah, if you consider 29 wins “alright”.

This rebuild is already a failure. This franchise is poop. I regret selecting the Hawks as my fav team as a child.

If you are this miserable as a fan (and misguided) then maybe give it up. Your takes here are nonsense.

You might not like what I say, but oh well.

This team has a couple of players that people think are building blocks, but thry’re not. Seriously, both Young and Collins are terrible defensive players. Both of them. Young is an inefficient scorer that also turns the ball over ton in addition to the horrible.

Collins offensive game is largely junk baskets and his sect for a front court player. He isn’t much of a passer or a traditional in the paint scorer. He doesn’t box out well and he doesn’t do too much on defense.

Hawk fans tend to overvalue the players, but both of these players have issues. These playoffs show that defense does still matter if you want to win in the playoffs. You’re not winning with such bad defenders being your core places.

The Hawks now have a slew of mediocre draft picks. So, much help can’t be expected. Nobody of importance is coming via FA’s.

This is setting up to be a 1st or 2nd round exit at best.

[D21]

For the first time, I'm questioning myself about the additions of odds.
Everybody, including journalists, were saying that we had 10.5+10.5+10.5+10.5=42% to get a Top4 pick

But is it real ? I may have a problem with these maths, but it looks to me that having 42% of the combinations in a single lottery is different than having 10.5% of the combinations in each of four lotteries

I have the feeling that we had 10.5% and not 42%
like NYK had the average of 14.0/13.4/12.7/11.9 and not the total of these four numbers (52)
The total of each team odds for Top4 should be 100%, and not more

I am wrong on it ?

[Buzzard]

For the first time, I'm questioning myself about the additions of odds.
Everybody, including journalists, were saying that we had 10.5+10.5+10.5+10.5=42% to get a Top4 pick

But is it real ? I may have a problem with these maths, but it looks to me that having 42% of the combinations in a single lottery is different than having 10.5% of the combinations in each of four lotteries

I have the feeling that we had 10.5% and not 42%
like NYK had the average of 14.0/13.4/12.7/11.9 and not the total of these four numbers (52)
The total of each team odds for Top4 should be 100%, and not more

I am wrong on it ?

Your math is right but the outcome was what the odds leaned to, us dropping. 42.1 % chance to move up. About a 57 % chance to move down. With the way the odds were slated, moving down was a bigger possibility for more teams in the top three and five than in previous years. This is exactly what the NBA wanted to curb tanking. Tank Races to last place are hopefully a thing of the past now.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

I've posted about 10 times about how I think this draft could still be a success and I'm still very pumped about this team's future.

I'm just not willing to tolerate anyone pretending yesterday was a good outcome.

It was like a blown layup that loses a game. It sucks. You'll be thinking about it for a while. But you pick up and move on because it doesn't determine the course of a season. I just won't suffer anyone saying, "it was actually a good outcome that we missed that layup."

(Also, I bet your BBQ is fantastic. No offense intended.)

From an odds perspective, we really did have bad luck. 8th pick was less likely than the #1 overall pick and 10th was also a much less likely outcome for the Dallas pick than the 9th pick. Still if we look at what we actually lost it really is not at all that significant in terms of value. Let's compare our results; 8th (.09% odds) and 10th(26% odds), to the most likely outcome statistically which is 7th (26% odds) and 9th (50% odds). Can anyone really argue that we are in a terrible situation compared to what the most likely scenario would have been? It's virtually the same thing. From an odds perspective, yes, it was a dropoff but from a value perspective, we didn't really lose a lot of value. I don't see any potential top 10 picks outside of the top 3 that is really a significantly better prospect than anyone else IMO.

The small chance to move up was underwhelming. Bigger chance to move down was obvious. We got lucky last year and maybe that put some rose colored glasses on a few fans. I am good with this and glad we kept the Dallas pick since we did not get extremely lucky and end up with Zion.

Travis is going to shock some people again. Trading down to add someone like Doumbouva, Langford, Fernando, Bol Bol, or Hachimura; while also adding a future pick comes immediately to mind. Maybe he just shocks people with our two picks by taking who he thinks is better instead of listening to all the BS thrown around for the next month. Whether its a trade or two, who he drafts, maybe both, the Hawks will make some noise again. I am looking forward to it.

Our odds of getting the #1 were 10.5%. That is low and shouldn't be expected. If it hits it is an extreme bit of good luck.

Our odds of moving into the top 5 were over 44%. That isn't low. That is a roughly coin flip. You can't count it but it is ok to feel let down when it comes up tails and you called heads. Shrug your shoulders and move on.

Our odds of getting a top 6 pick were roughly 64%. Anything less than this is a disappointment.

Our odds of getting a top 7 pick were over 90%. Anything less than this is an extreme bit of bad luck.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

For the first time, I'm questioning myself about the additions of odds.
Everybody, including journalists, were saying that we had 10.5+10.5+10.5+10.5=42% to get a Top4 pick

But is it real ? I may have a problem with these maths, but it looks to me that having 42% of the combinations in a single lottery is different than having 10.5% of the combinations in each of four lotteries

I have the feeling that we had 10.5% and not 42%
like NYK had the average of 14.0/13.4/12.7/11.9 and not the total of these four numbers (52)
The total of each team odds for Top4 should be 100%, and not more

I am wrong on it ?

We had a 10.5% chance at landing at any particular spot 1-4 but a 42% chance at landing at any spot 1-4. NY had a 14% of getting the first pick and a 27.4% chance of getting a top 2 pick and a 40.1% chance of getting a top 3 pick, etc. If you look the numbers of each team add up to 100% but you have to add not just the odds for the top 4 but the odds for all spots at which they could conceivably land. The odds reflect not just your chance to move up but where you are likely to fall based on the odds of every other team. That is why we have odds assigned to our pick for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9 but the Knicks only have odds for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. We could have finished anywhere 1-9. They could do no worse than 5.

Now these are odds for the total universe of possibilities before the draft. The actual odds will change with every pick. When NO won the #1 spot, the odds would shift so we would have a 0% chance to get the #1 pick and our chances of landing at #2-4 become less likely than pre-draft because the teams with the most chances are all still there. In contrast, if NY had gotten the #1 spot then our odds of landing 2-4 would have increased because now one of the teams with more combinations in play is out of the running. Since we don't see the actual lottery roll out, the most meaningful numbers for us are the total pre-lottery odds you are talking about and the way people described it was correct: 10.5% chance at 1, 21% chance at top 2, 31.5% chance at top 3, 42% chance at top 4.

[Buzzard]

From an odds perspective, we really did have bad luck. 8th pick was less likely than the #1 overall pick and 10th was also a much less likely outcome for the Dallas pick than the 9th pick. Still if we look at what we actually lost it really is not at all that significant in terms of value. Let's compare our results; 8th (.09% odds) and 10th(26% odds), to the most likely outcome statistically which is 7th (26% odds) and 9th (50% odds). Can anyone really argue that we are in a terrible situation compared to what the most likely scenario would have been? It's virtually the same thing. From an odds perspective, yes, it was a dropoff but from a value perspective, we didn't really lose a lot of value. I don't see any potential top 10 picks outside of the top 3 that is really a significantly better prospect than anyone else IMO.

The small chance to move up was underwhelming. Bigger chance to move down was obvious. We got lucky last year and maybe that put some rose colored glasses on a few fans. I am good with this and glad we kept the Dallas pick since we did not get extremely lucky and end up with Zion.

Travis is going to shock some people again. Trading down to add someone like Doumbouva, Langford, Fernando, Bol Bol, or Hachimura; while also adding a future pick comes immediately to mind. Maybe he just shocks people with our two picks by taking who he thinks is better instead of listening to all the BS thrown around for the next month. Whether its a trade or two, who he drafts, maybe both, the Hawks will make some noise again. I am looking forward to it.

Our odds of getting the #1 were 10.5%. That is low and shouldn't be expected. If it hits it is an extreme bit of good luck.

Our odds of moving into the top 5 were over 44%. That isn't low. That is a roughly coin flip. You can't count it but it is ok to feel let down when it comes up tails and you called heads. Shrug your shoulders and move on.

Our odds of getting a top 6 pick were roughly 64%. Anything less than this is a disappointment.

Our odds of getting a top 7 pick were over 90%. Anything less than this is an extreme bit of bad luck.

Yep the difference between getting 6 or 7 vs 8 was a big % and a bad luck of the draw. I will take this as a glass half full since we did keep the Mavs pick. My thinking, I would rather have 8 and 10 vs 6 or 7 and no Mavs pick. I understand some will think differently; but from where I sit and think, we got half lucky.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

I stated in numerous post before and after the draft lottery that I didn't care what drafting position the Hawk ended up with in this particular draft. Only people like you do.

And our owner and GM who both made it clear they were disappointed. I would fire my GM on the spot if he didn't care about what draft pick he had. "Trade our #5 for your #14? Sure. Why not. It doesn't matter what position we draft!" Saying only people like "me" care about what position they are drafting is crazy. There is no one working for an NBA team front office that doesn't care what draft position their team is picking.

And I also predicted that the lottery winner would outside the teams that finished with the 5-6 worse in the league last year.

I'm confused by this. The top 6 teams had a 74% chance of winning the top pick. That means an unlikely but very possible 26% chance a team outside of the top 6 wins the lottery. Are you claiming the lottery is fixed and not random and that this proves you have superior insight into the inner workings of the lottery and this result bears proof of that insight? Or are you crowing because you decided to bet against the odds on a totally random event and the random numbers came up that way?

Unless you think the lottery is fixed and your view is now proven out, this is like taking a bet that flipping a coin twice will come up with heads both times and going "nailed it!" when that happens. Heads twice in a row will happen 1 out of 4 times. Better odds than roulette certainly but unless you are getting a juiced payout ($3 for every $1 you bet will get you to break even over a large sample size assuming you get your bet back if you win) then I'm not sure what significance this is supposed to carry. Everyone knew this would happen roughly 1 out of every 4 drafts under the new system. Next year it will be a 26% chance to happen again. That is just the system now. Less incentive for the teams at the top to tank. More incentive for the teams near the middle of the league to tank.

[peoriabird]

I stated in numerous post before and after the draft lottery that I didn't care what drafting position the Hawk ended up with in this particular draft. Only people like you do.

And our owner and GM who both made it clear they were disappointed. I would fire my GM on the spot if he didn't care about what draft pick he had. "Trade our #5 for your #14? Sure. Why not. It doesn't matter what position we draft!" Saying only people like "me" care about what position they are drafting is crazy. There is no one working for an NBA team front office that doesn't care what draft position their team is picking.

And I also predicted that the lottery winner would outside the teams that finished with the 5-6 worse in the league last year.

I'm confused by this. The top 6 teams had a 74% chance of winning the top pick. That means an unlikely but very possible 26% chance a team outside of the top 6 wins the lottery. Are you claiming the lottery is fixed and not random and that this proves you have superior insight into the inner workings of the lottery and this result bears proof of that insight? Or are you crowing because you decided to bet against the odds on a totally random event and the random numbers came up that way?

Unless you think the lottery is fixed and your view is now proven out, this is like taking a bet that flipping a coin twice will come up with heads both times and going "nailed it!" when that happens. Heads twice in a row will happen 1 out of 4 times. Better odds than roulette certainly but unless you are getting a juiced payout ($3 for every $1 you bet will get you to break even over a large sample size assuming you get your bet back if you win) then I'm not sure what significance this is supposed to carry. Everyone knew this would happen roughly 1 out of every 4 drafts under the new system. Next year it will be a 26% chance to happen again. That is just the system now. Less incentive for the teams at the top to tank. More incentive for the teams near the middle of the league to tank.

I guess so because I was right and y'all were wrong! You're only confused because you are a tanker and tankers only think inside that tanker box. lose and you will be rewarded with the better pick which means better players. Thank God some aren't wired like tankers

[kg01]

Ya know what's really funny. What if the Cavs had dropped out of the top 10 and we got their pick this year too. Heh, it could've happened.

Actually, considering teams'll stop all-out tanking, we have a good chance of getting their pick next year right?

That Gilbert kid -er- man was not happy this year.

[kg01]

Geez, peo. You're like that guy on the battlefield who closes his eyes and unloads a clip, hits the opposing general by pure a** accident. Then turns to everybody bragging about what a great shot it was.

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

I stated in numerous post before and after the draft lottery that I didn't care what drafting position the Hawk ended up with in this particular draft. Only people like you do.

And our owner and GM who both made it clear they were disappointed. I would fire my GM on the spot if he didn't care about what draft pick he had. "Trade our #5 for your #14? Sure. Why not. It doesn't matter what position we draft!" Saying only people like "me" care about what position they are drafting is crazy. There is no one working for an NBA team front office that doesn't care what draft position their team is picking.

And I also predicted that the lottery winner would outside the teams that finished with the 5-6 worse in the league last year.

I'm confused by this. The top 6 teams had a 74% chance of winning the top pick. That means an unlikely but very possible 26% chance a team outside of the top 6 wins the lottery. Are you claiming the lottery is fixed and not random and that this proves you have superior insight into the inner workings of the lottery and this result bears proof of that insight? Or are you crowing because you decided to bet against the odds on a totally random event and the random numbers came up that way?

Unless you think the lottery is fixed and your view is now proven out, this is like taking a bet that flipping a coin twice will come up with heads both times and going "nailed it!" when that happens. Heads twice in a row will happen 1 out of 4 times. Better odds than roulette certainly but unless you are getting a juiced payout ($3 for every $1 you bet will get you to break even over a large sample size assuming you get your bet back if you win) then I'm not sure what significance this is supposed to carry. Everyone knew this would happen roughly 1 out of every 4 drafts under the new system. Next year it will be a 26% chance to happen again. That is just the system now. Less incentive for the teams at the top to tank. More incentive for the teams near the middle of the league to tank.

I guess so because I was right and y'all were wrong! You're only confused because you are a tanker and tankers only think inside that tanker box. lose and you will be rewarded with the better pick which means better players. Thank God some aren't wired like tankers

Hey more power to you. You bet on a 26% outcome and feel like that happening validates your world view. Enjoy that validation at the expense of the Hawks.

So glad we don't have a GM who thinks like this.

Travis Schlenk, GM Atlanta Hawks: Obviously, we were hoping our pick would have moved up.

Yes, Travis. It is super obvious. Now go forward and maximize the value from the picks we got!

[peoriabird]

Geez, peo. You're like that guy on the battlefield who closes his eyes and unloads a clip, hits the opposing general by pure a** accident. Then turns to everybody bragging about what a great shot it was.

I just think that while going through the season how ridiculous it was to root for their team to lose thinking that would guarantee good things at the end of the season. And when the tankers were reminded that it was luck and not science that would prevail in the lottery, they continued to arrogantly claim to know it all. Now they are all upset because they were totally wrong and can't even admit maybe their strategy was a little off.

[fuzzy1]

Things didn't turn out that well, but I still trust Schlenk.

And, on the positive side, a couple of busts will get picked ahead of us (Barrett, Culver), some players that I think will be solid but don't fit will get picked ahead of us (Garland, Morant, possibly White), so we'll have some solid options at 8/10 who we probably would have wanted to pick anyway. The big one I'm bummed out on is Deandre Hunter, who I'd be willing to move up for.

[Jamaaliver]

Read on Twitter

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

Geez, peo. You're like that guy on the battlefield who closes his eyes and unloads a clip, hits the opposing general by pure a** accident. Then turns to everybody bragging about what a great shot it was.

I just think that while going through the season how ridiculous it was to root for their team to lose thinking that would guarantee good things at the end of the season. And when the tankers were reminded that it was luck and not science that would prevail in the lottery, they continued to arrogantly claim to know it all. Now they are all upset because they were totally wrong and can't even admit maybe their strategy was a little off.

No one thought this. Everyone knew it was all about odds and that odds don't equal a guarantee unless they are 100%.

[High 5]

And I also predicted that the lottery winner would outside the teams that finished with the 5-6 worse in the league last year.

That’s not how probabilities work. There is no “predicting” when going against the odds. You’re just hoping at that point. The overwhelming odds had last night going better for us and we simply got unlucky.

[Atlantaholic]

From an odds perspective, we really did have bad luck. 8th pick was less likely than the #1 overall pick and 10th was also a much less likely outcome for the Dallas pick than the 9th pick. Still if we look at what we actually lost it really is not at all that significant in terms of value. Let's compare our results; 8th (.09% odds) and 10th(26% odds), to the most likely outcome statistically which is 7th (26% odds) and 9th (50% odds). Can anyone really argue that we are in a terrible situation compared to what the most likely scenario would have been? It's virtually the same thing. From an odds perspective, yes, it was a dropoff but from a value perspective, we didn't really lose a lot of value. I don't see any potential top 10 picks outside of the top 3 that is really a significantly better prospect than anyone else IMO.

The small chance to move up was underwhelming. Bigger chance to move down was obvious. We got lucky last year and maybe that put some rose colored glasses on a few fans. I am good with this and glad we kept the Dallas pick since we did not get extremely lucky and end up with Zion.

Travis is going to shock some people again. Trading down to add someone like Doumbouva, Langford, Fernando, Bol Bol, or Hachimura; while also adding a future pick comes immediately to mind. Maybe he just shocks people with our two picks by taking who he thinks is better instead of listening to all the BS thrown around for the next month. Whether its a trade or two, who he drafts, maybe both, the Hawks will make some noise again. I am looking forward to it.

Our odds of getting the #1 were 10.5%. That is low and shouldn't be expected. If it hits it is an extreme bit of good luck.

Our odds of moving into the top 5 were over 44%. That isn't low. That is a roughly coin flip. You can't count it but it is ok to feel let down when it comes up tails and you called heads. Shrug your shoulders and move on.

Our odds of getting a top 6 pick were roughly 64%. Anything less than this is a disappointment.

Our odds of getting a top 7 pick were over 90%. Anything less than this is an extreme bit of bad luck.

Yup, it's bad luck. Still is top 5, or 6 or 7 that much better than 8th? I'm arguing it's not; not this year at least. Huichimura, Langford, Reddish, Nassir Little etc. etc. have as much of a chance at going 5,6, or 7th as they do 8th. This wasn't a favorable outcome for us odds-wise, but we are gonna end up with two players that will be extremely comparable to what we could have gotten with any combination of the 4-10 picks. Only two outcomes that would have been for sure much more valuable would have been ending with a top 3 pick and keeping Dallas Pick, or of course winning the Zion sweeptsakes... Still both of those were huge longshots.

[peoriabird]

So if you understand that the desired results depend on luck ... why are you whining and complaining??? People only whine and complain about not getting what they think they are owed or deserve... not about something unexpected