RealGM

My chart on playoffs teams or teams in general is this:

1. Fit

2. Talent

3. System 

4. Star player, usually top impact guy

5. Depth

6. Experience - which is usually important BBIQ and execution, not that big of a deal for RS success.



Fit is the most critical piece to team building. You can have LeBron and still lose a lot without it.

Talent, you must have the talent. You don't have to have the best but you must have enough. The least talented team of all time considering the era of competition to win 60 games was the Hawks lead by Horford, Sap, Teague, Korver and DMC.

System is not critical like fit is but it's important. You must have a system, without one, you look like OKC where its player based. Guys with marginal talent or impact could severely struggle in this situation.

Usually your best player usually tells me where you are at especially in today's NBA. Just by that, I can project if you are underrated or overrated. While it's not as important as 1-3. It's still important, especially for the playoffs.

While depth is more important for the regular season than the playoffs, it's still has a level of importance. The better you are, the better your chances of winning RS games is for unit optimization.

Experience is the least important. Does it help yes especially in the playoffs. But for the RS, it's not that important outside of chemistry and execution. That's where experience is important. For the playoffs where execution is critical is where experience is most important.

Based on my chart

1. Milwaukee 100% - they have everything on this and are the best team in the NBA for a reason. Will not miss Malc as much as people think.

2. Philly 95% - People question fit, I don't especially wo Jimmy. Depth is an issue. The most talent in the NBA.

3. Boston 90% - They took a major step back in talent and experience but made a major step up in fit and system. Expect great things. For contending, they need more experienced talent. 

4. Orlando 70% - Fit, system and depth and experience is here but talent and star player is lacking. You can't win big with Vooch as your ace.

5. Brooklyn 55% - They made tremendous progress in talent, system and experience while taking steps back in fit and system. They will be interesting.

6. Atlanta 55% - Hawks got 1-3 and 4 is critical as Trae rise makes Hawks feast or fandom. 5-6 will see Atlanta likely be easy exits in the playoffs.

7t. Chicago 50% - They are decent at 1-6 but not good at anything. Their lack of overall weaknesses should put them in.

7t. Toronto 50% - Talent is getting much worse and you gotta question the brain drain that is the NBA. Strong 3, 5 and 6 should give them a shot.

7t. Pacers 50% - With Dipo, this might be a lock got 4-5 but without him, they are lacking in most areas especially depth and high end talent but fit and system is always good for them and with Dipo, they have talent and the star

10t. Heat 49% They have more questions than answers but I like Butler. I like 2 more than hate it. They have depth. But likely an under .500 team.

10t. Pistons 49% - They have more questions than answers but I like Griffin. I like 2 more than hate it. They have experience. But likely an under .500 team

10t. Wizards 49% - They have more questions than answers but I like Beal. I like 2 more than hate it. They have 2 more than others in the same tier. But likely an under .500 team

13. Knicks 2% - Build around R.J., like Atlanta did with Trae, take as long as needed. Just having that guy, it means 4 is in a good place even unproven.

14. Cavs 1% - Kevin Love is the best thing about this team and it shows they are on massive decline as the best player. They have to mix Garland and Sexton. Should struggle y1.

15. Hornets 0% - They are in a Similar situation to the Hawks a couple of years ago. No aces. Vets on one years. Lost a great guy and hope isn't in the Bazemore signing of the class in Rozier. That Hawk team overachieved because of the system but I don't think this Hornets team will be as fortunate. They suck at every category, the worst situation in the NBA.



If you fail 1-4, the best score you can get is a 3%. 

I don't have one for the west but I think 9 teams will make the playoffs even though only 8 can. The Spurs are my 9th team. I feel they will make it no matter what and one of the top 1-8 teams will have injuries which will ruin their season.

Team I have out that made it last year- OKC

Teams I have in - LAL and SAC

I expect both teams to have massive jumps.

I expect the West to be much better than last year top to bottom.

The only really bad teams are in the east.

Knicks, Cavs and Hornets

I wouldn't be surprised if Charlotte only won 15 games.

1. Fit

2. Talent

3. System 

4. Star player, usually top impact guy

5. Depth

6. Experience

Point Chart: 35 + 30 + 20 + 12 + 2 + 1

Added more details

1. Milwaukee 100% - They have everything needed to win a title.

2. Philly 95% - They are 99% RS team but a 95% playoff team. Depth is severely lacking and they need more shooting.

3. Boston 90% - They are a 100% lock for the playoffs but their lack of playoff experience and star player quality for the playoffs severely hurts them. 80% playoff team.

4. Orlando 70% - They got everything but championship experience and high end talent. A pretender but a good one.

5. Brooklyn 55% - Lacking on system and fit hurts a lot but if they can solve those issues, this team could be a top 3 seed without Durant. Just imagine with Durant.

6. Atlanta 55% - Via my points system, I am much higher on the Hawks then most people are. I think of them as a 44 wins min team with potential to really impact the East. SAC, LAL and ATL are my big movers for 2019-2020. Expect a short playoff run even if they win in the 1st round.

7t. Chicago 50% - They are decent at 1-6 but not good at anything. Their lack of overall weaknesses should put them in.

7t. Toronto 50% - I am not big on the fit honestly. Siakam is not a #1 option. He struggled anytime Green wasn't on the court and was at his best with Leonard. Lowry is regressing as is Gasol. I see this team being the Pistons team that won 39 games in 2008-2009. An end of an era. I am not big on their talent either. Not high on O.G. as the starting 3. I am still high on their depth but it's not on par with 2017-18 which was elite by ATG standards in the RS. I see a lot of issues. I do like Coach Nurse but he sometimes tries to coach too much which is good when you got Leonard but not always so good otherwise. I think this team will miss Green more than Leonard in terms of RS. He was more valuable to all of their rotations from my charts. Leonard just broke the charts in the playoffs on some Bron ish. That's what super-superstars do.

7t. Pacers 50% - I love this team with Dipo. I think Indy is as good as anyone talent wise with Dipo but without him, I am not a fan.

10t. Heat 49% Depth/Start player and system is what they got. Not in love with it but don't sleep on Jimmy Buckets. His +/- was been through the roof in the last 3 seasons outside of Philly last year.

10t. Pistons 49% - I see them and Miami being equals. It's about who do you think is better? Griffin or Butler. Otherwise, these two teams got similar flaws and strengths. Overly reliant on their star.

10t. Wizards 49% - I actually like Washington's talent. Even without Wall. Issue is depth, experience, system and fit. But they got the star and the talent with Rui and Bryant. I can't wait till Wall is back to see if he improved.

13. Knicks 2% - The only thing that saved them from 0 is having R.J. as the franchise player. Build around him like Atlanta did with Young. Otherwise, they don't fit. Talent is there but it's not winning talent. System? Star is a rook. Depth is here but how can they help you win? They can't... Experience? LOL! This team got one thing going for them. R.J. Barrett. They have pieces, they just need to make it all work.

14. Cavs 1% - Their one is for their depth which is good. Surprisingly good for a bad team. Other than that, this team is starting a rookie PG. Sexton is being moved off of the ball. I don't have faith in Love's health or TT's health. That said, the depth is good. Winning depth as well. Cavs will shock some people.

15. Hornets 0% - They are one of the worst teams I've seen in awhile. No real up and coming stud. No real depth. No winning experience. A lot of negative rotation guys. iffy youth. Rozier to make matters worse. This team is in the sweepstakes for Edwards/Ball/Anthony/Wiseman and I hope they get at least one.

I like it Supes.

In the east if put the Hawks over the Magic and the Knicks over the Wizards.

West I’d go:

1. Clippers
2. Nuggets
3. Rockets
4. Jazz
5. Lakers
6. Blazers
7. Spurs
8. Warriors

Spud2nique wrote:I like it Supes.

In the east if put the Hawks over the Magic and the Knicks over the Wizards.

West I’d go:

1. Clippers
2. Nuggets
3. Rockets
4. Jazz
5. Lakers
6. Blazers
7. Spurs
8. Warriors

I like your take as well for the west.

I can't take the Knicks up or the Magic down. For me, Orlando is probably the best team who isn't a contender in the east. They are legit on defense, they have added the right depth and they have a good system. Especially defensively. Hard to say that Atlanta is going to be better than that in 2019-2020 but it's possible. We got a great system, fit, talent and a potential superstar in Trae Young.

Orlando is just a sure thing for me.

I am higher on the Wizards than most. For me, it's all about Beal and Rui. I am higher on Rui at this time than most. I think Rui can do for Washington what Mitchell did for the Jazz but they still need Wall. That's unquestionable.

As for the Knicks. They have more overall talent than most of the eastern conference but can they win is the question. They got guys at 3rd string that I like. They got the talent but it's about making it functional. Once the Knicks do that, then we can put them in higher regard.

KK's, players I am expecting to make a major jump this year (no rookies on this list since they haven't played yet). Just 2nd year and up: These are players I am expecting to exceed their expectations and be possible candidates for most improved player.

Eastern Conference only

1. Milwaukee - Donte D and D.J. Wilson.

2. Philly - Zhaire Smith

3. Boston - Jayson Tatum, Kemba Walker and Jaylen Brown

4. Orlando - Fultz and Bamba

5. Brooklyn - LeVert and Joe Harris

6. Atlanta - Trae Young, John Collins, Jabari Parker and Alex Len

7t. Chicago - Lauri, WCJ, and Hutchinson

7t. Toronto - No one

7t. Pacers - Myles Turner, T.J. Leaf, Aaron Holiday

10t. Heat - Winslow

10t. Pistons - Kyri Thomas, Bruce Brown, Derrick Rose and Luke Kennard

10t. Wizards - Thomas Bryant, Bradley Beal, and Troy Brown Jr.

13. Knicks - Frank N, Mitchell Robinson and Wayne Ellington

14. Cavs - Collin Sexton and Tristin Thompson

15. Hornets - Miles Bridges

I am expecting massive jumps for bench players: Fultz, Bamba, T.J. Leaf, Bruce Brown, Frank N. and Zhaire Smith

I am expecting massive jumps for starters: Trae Young, Lauri, John Collins, Thomas Bryant, Collin Sexton, and Jayson Tatum

I am expecting superstar status jump for: Bradley Beal and Kemba Walker.

Shocked and surprises

East only

1. Milwaukee -

1. Shocked if Giannis isn't even better at shooting and passing.

2. Shocked if Coach Bud can start rest management.

3. Shocked if Eric Bledsoe is not at least a decent open shooter this upcoming season.

1. Surprised if Donte D can fully replace Malcolm Brogdon

2. Surprised if Coach Bud is willing to adjust in the playoffs like Coach Nurse.

3. Surprised if Middleton improves from his banner year in 18-19.

2. Philly -

1. Shocked if Ben Simmons isn't a better shooter this upcoming season. I just can't see him being that bad again.

2. Shocked if Tobias Harris isn't an ideal fit this upcoming season w/ Al Horford and Josh Richardson on board.

3. Shocked if Zhaire Smith isn't an impact player off the bench.

1. Surprised if Embiid can stay fairly healthy with his style of play.

2. Surprised if they can shoot well enough to be a real championship force in the playoffs.

3. Surprised if Coach Brown can get back to the same defense that Coach Pierce implemented the season before.

3. Boston -

1. Shocked if Kemba isn't a perfect fit in Stevens' system.

2. Shocked if Tatum doesn't take a jump as a legit #2 option in year 3.

3. Shocked if Grant Williams doesn't have success as a rookie for Boston

1. Surprised if Boston has real playoff success with that frontcourt.

2. Surprised if Jaylen Brown makes a massive jump. I think he can make a major jump but a massive one, I don't see it like I do with Tatum and Walker.

3. Surprised if their defense can be top notch without Horford.

4. Orlando -


1. Shocked if Bamba and Fultz doesn't make a major jump

2. Shocked if they did not build on their 2nd half of season in 2019.

3. Shocked if Vucevic doesn't build upon his success in 2019

1. Surprised if Evan improves in 2019-20.

2. Surprised if Fultz starts over Augustin in 2019-20

3. Surprised if they become more than a pretender.

5. Brooklyn -

1. Shocked if Kyrie isn't more motivated in 2019-20 than last year.

2. Shocked if LeVert and Prince don't improve this season and more shocked if the offense isn't better this upcoming season.

3. Shocked if Durant plays in 19-20.

1. Surprised if their system effectiveness improves after the offseason moves for 19-20.

2. Surprised if Coach Atkinson will enjoy 2019-20 as much as 2018-19

3. Surprised if they defend better this year.

6. Atlanta -

1. Shocked if Trae Young does not improve on his post all star break success. I expect better shooting, better defense, more communication and building upon his skill-set.

2. Shocked if Jabari Parker doesn't build onto his 6th man success with the Wizards on the Hawks.

3. Shocked if Cam Reddish is less than a perfect fit with the starting 5. Cam has everything to be an instant performer with our core on offense. He will be a great perimeter defender as a rookie with any team.

1. Surprised if De'Andre Hunter is ready offensively on the wing by mid December. I have him as a player who won't be ready offensively to be consistently on the wing till next season. If he can make the growth like Kevin H did, he could exceed my expectation.

2. Surprised if Alex Len could played solid defense this season.

3. Surprised if John Collins meets his expected defensive value in 2019-2020. I strongly feel his expected defensive value is highly unlikely but if he can meet it, WOW!

7t. Chicago -

1. Shocked if they aren't one of the more improved teams in 2019-20.

2. Shocked if Otto Porter Jr doesn't get some AS recognition.

3. Shocked if Coach Boylen doesn't put his mark on this squad.

1. Surprised if Lauri and WCJ fit

2. Surprised if Kris Dunn finish the season as the starting PG.

3. Surprised if Kris Dunn improves with the Bulls. He just isn't a fit and it's not the right role for him at this stage.

7t. Toronto -

1. Shocked if Siakam doesn't improve.

2. Shocked if Coach Nurse doesn't coach his ass off this year.

3. Shocked if Masai doesn't make his stamp on this squad.

1. Surprised if Lowry and Gasol play at the same level as 2018-19. Expecting major regression.

2. Surprised if FVF becomes more consistent.

3. Surprised if chemistry drops. I do see this team as one of the most stable in terms of leadership and focus.

7t. Pacers -

1. Shocked if T.J. Leaf doesn't take a leap.

2. Shocked if Aaron Holiday isn't the starting PG come the playoffs if they make it.

3. Shocked if Dipo comes back sooner than Jan with his type of game.

1. Surprised if Turner and Sabonis fit

2. Surprised if they can have a winning record without Dipo

3. Surprised if Brogdon can play the point at an effective level.

10t. Heat -

1. Shocked if Herro doesn't play a major role for 2019-20.

2. Shocked if Butler doesn't fit the Miami team culture.

3. Shocked if Coach Spo can't get this squad to .500 ball

1. Surprised if Bam lives up to the hype

2. Surprised if they don't feel the lost of Whiteside

3. Surprised if Miami isn't looking for a PG by December.

10t. Pistons -

1. Shocked if Griffin doesn't build on his success in 18-19.

2. Shocked if Reggie Jackson doesn't have a good year for his standards since it's his contract year.

3. Shocked if youngins don't make big leaps, Coach Casey is one of the better player development coaches in the NBA. Plus they got a new falicity.

1. Surprised if Griffin is healthy

2. Surprised if Drummond becomes more verstiale. I strongly feel his a net nuertal player which isn't worth more than 10 mil in this market at his position. He is killing DET potential.

3. Surprised if they could stay healthy. A lot of injury prone guys on this squad. Seriousness from the players is always a question for me. Some teams you just wonder if they really want to be here. This is one of them.

10t. Wizards -

1. Shocked if Bradley Beal doesn't jump into superstardom. Kyrie Irving respect level.

2. Shocked if Rui isn't the Donovan Mitchell of his class. I think Rui in this system can take a major jump.

3. Shocked if Coach Brooks don't get his respect back. This team has potential. Ish Smith is the perfect comp with Beal being the primary.

1. Surprised if Griffin is healthy

2. Surprised if Isaiah Thomas is decent. If he could even be an effective 6th man, he would have suppassed my expectations.

3. Surprised if their depth is better than the 2nd half of the season last year. I can see them regressing on that end, AGAIN.

13. Knicks -

1. Shocked if R.J. doesn't have the best offensive raw numbers of all rookies.

2. Shocked if Morris isn't a fit

3. Shocked if they end the season in a worse place than they came into 2019-2020 in. They need to start Frank with R.J.

1. Surprised if they can figure the rotation out.

2. Surprised if they win more than 25 games.

3. Surprised if they are a top 20 shooting squad.

14. Cavs -

1. Shocked if Sexton doesn't build on his 2nd half success in 18-19.

2. Shocked if their not a top 10 bench unit.

3. Shocked if Garland doesn't flash a lot of quality in the 2nd half of the season in 2020.

1. Surprised if Love and TT is healthy

2. Surprised if build onto this squad and not tear it apart.

3. Surprised if Beilen has year 1 success. I am not expecting much but small victories. The NBA is a hard adjustment.

15. Hornets -

1. Shocked if Miles Bridges doesn't take on a bigger role in 2019-20.

2. Shocked if MJ/Mitch sits on his roster if a good trade is offered.

3. Shocked if they are patient with Rozier

1. Surprised if Rozier is effective

2. Surprised if they have expectations more than 15 wins

3. Surprised if they perform at their expected levels.

Just lurking and came to post that this is very solid analysis and that I appreciate all the effort you put into it.

SmartWentCrazy wrote:Just lurking and came to post that this is very solid analysis and that I appreciate all the effort you put into it.

Thank you SWC! I always enjoyed your commentary on the Celtics and the NBA in general.

The west, I have 9 teams making the playoffs

No order
Jazz
Lakers
Clippers
Rockets
Kings
Nuggets
Blazers
Warriors
And
Spurs getting in due to another team above having injury issues.

Pelicans, Suns and Mavs all have a shot

Not expecting Minny and OKC to make it

Memphis has no shot

First of all, i like the thread and in general most of OP's takes. . I agree for the most part with your team assessments and i like the thought process on the 6 things you sort a team by... youve got the hawks way too high and the pacers way too low but in general i mean

3. Boston 90% - They took a major step back in talent and experience but made a major step up in fit and system.

Disagree strongly here. The loss of Horford/Baynes is going to cripple Boston defensively and the spacing and efficiency loss they will suffer on offense is being far underestimated. Kanter could not be a worse fit with Kemba. Now you have an easy 1/5 PNR to attack all game long and Boston will have to lean far too heavily on their athletic wings to cover up those deficiencies will lead to easy perimeter looks. Horford masked a lot of bad habits and defensive deficiencies. Not to mention Kanter offers zilch in terms of spacing and he's ineffective in the PNR where kemba thrives. Expect Kemba to be the victim of a lot of traps which will leave Boston with a lot of late clock isoball from their wings...


On average, Approximately 80% of wins can be "explained" by your top 3 players.... and about 95% by your top 6 players. So yeah you're on the right track with your assessment of depth not being nearly as important in the postseason as every team gets on the same rest schedule and rotations shrink.

BigRedDog wrote:First of all, i like the thread and in general most of OP's takes. . I agree for the most part with your team assessments and i like the thought process on the 6 things you sort a team by... youve got the hawks way too high and the pacers way too low but in general i mean

3. Boston 90% - They took a major step back in talent and experience but made a major step up in fit and system.

Disagree strongly here. The loss of Horford/Baynes is going to cripple Boston defensively and the spacing and efficiency loss they will suffer on offense is being far underestimated. Kanter could not be a worse fit with Kemba. Now you have an easy 1/5 PNR to attack all game long and Boston will have to lean far too heavily on their athletic wings to cover up those deficiencies will lead to easy perimeter looks. Horford masked a lot of bad habits and defensive deficiencies. Not to mention Kanter offers zilch in terms of spacing and he's ineffective in the PNR where kemba thrives. Expect Kemba to be the victim of a lot of traps which will leave Boston with a lot of late clock isoball from their wings...


On average, Approximately 80% of wins can be "explained" by your top 3 players.... and about 95% by your top 6 players. So yeah you're on the right track with your assessment of depth not being nearly as important in the postseason as every team gets on the same rest schedule and rotations shrink.

First and foremost, thank you for your response.

2. While Boston took a major step back in talent and experience, Stevens has always ran a system centric style of play similar to Coach Bud. Because of this style, it always benefits system players who fit into what he likes to do more than anything. Kyrie for Kemba is a stepback in talent and three steps up in system and fit. That's a significant upgrade for a high level coach like Brad Stevens. PG position is the most critical position in ALL Brad Stevens based systems and the one that yields the highest grade. As a Hornets fan, Kemba was not just special for you in the last two seasons but he was a floor raiser. So many starting Hornets have + grades or replacement level grades when with the eye test, my notes, and scouting reviews, it listed them as benefiting from Kemba a lot more than being productive role players on average. Batum, Zeller, MKG. All three came up as below replacement level with Kemba and by a significant margin. Kemba is one of the best floor raisers for a PG in the NBA from my data. The fit of Stevens and floor raising has massive impact onto the success of Boston.

Grant Williams is a tremendously underrated draft pick and his system fit was always his greatest strength as a draft fit. I always said, his value for a team like Washington is a 2nd rounder while his value to a team like Boston is worth a lottery pick. He does well in hedging, PnR coverage, movement reads, communication and decision making on both ends of the court. He will be an instant impact. Now obviously he can't replace Al Horford, no one can. But he still fits the system need for Stevens, system centric style. Kanter showed decent value with Portland in a drop setting and I would imagine Boston will just do the same. His advanced metrics for the regular season and playoffs weren't that bad and he is in a system where he has players around him like Marcus Smart, Grant Williams and Jayson Tatum so his defense will be less prone to issues than it would at Portland which he wasn't bad in. The drop system is saving the centers of centers like Nurk, Kanter, and soon Whiteside.

I do agree with one thing, they won't overcome this in the playoffs. Teams will expose their drop coverage as they have more talent in the playoffs, better schemes and obviously better matchups but Portland proved in the drop system, Kanter is a net positive and a decent center in the RIGHT scheme.

Hawks got everything you need to win games. They have great system fit. Anytime Collins was on floor, the Hawks were 8th in the NBA with ORTG. Trae Young who had a -5.9 BPM before ASB dragged by his November and early December woes and time without Collins had a .4 BPM and was posting top 15 player post all star offensive numbers leading his team PACE to a blistering 105.38. From what I've seen, I am expecting Trae to have a big jump from his 2nd half of the season which he showed defensive communication, he was our top perimeter player in terms of shot contest post ASB, decision making in the half court, picking his spots better, you know, the typical things players improve on in year 2. Add better shooting metrics, he shot 34.8% post ASB on 7 3s a game and playing 36 mpg which is 3 ticks up from 33.1mpg he played post asb as mentioned by LP.

I have them winning 44 games min as long as those three (Kevin, Trae, and John) are healthy. Offensively, they are too good. They project out as a top 5 offense by all of my projections. Of all top 5 offenses in the NBA. In the last five years, only one missed the playoffs Denver Nuggets in Jokic 2nd season and of the teams with a top five ORTG and bottom ten DRTG which if the rookies can't fix, is looking like the path for Atlanta.

Minny Wolves last year - 47-35
16/17 Nuggets - 40-42
14/15 Toronto Raptors 49 33
Cleveland Cavaliers last year 50 32
Cleveland Cavaliers 16/17 51 31

When you have top 12 post all star break numbers like Trae Young as a rookie and you have a season ORTG which is 6th in the NBA like John Collins, it makes you extremely difficult to beat as Atlanta has pace and momentum figured out. Kevin H is more of Mike Miller type. Not as skilled, not as versatile but a better young shooter, with great range and is a great decision maker on the ball. He took a leap every two months. He was shooting 5.2 threes after ASG. He just continued to take leaps on both ends of the court. A great fit and a system fit.

Talent wise, how many teams are as talented as the Hawks? Two exceptionally high end offensive talents. Two high end overall talents in Hunter and Reddish. One of the better role playing wings in Kevin Huerter who had a top 20 season for a SG by most metrics and kept improving after ASB. Hawks had the 8th highest ORTG with John Collins on the court. Without John Collins. 29th. Obviously, the Hawks had massive issues with backup PF's. Poythress and Humprhies were horrendous, other replacements or players at the 4 was a disaster and VC while effective at times is still 42 years old. He can only play so many mins without hurting the team.

They have a tremendous system. It showcases the guards and wings playmaking, turns most of the bigs into PnR/PnP guys and Trae is the ultimate driving machine in terms of controlling pace. When you have a team that fits, they have a great system and they have a lot of talent especially in 2019-2020. I really don't see how the sky isn't the limit with this team.







As far as depth, they have improved the backup PG position from Jaylen Adams to Evan Turner. Evan is probably not going to like it but he is basically a 12-15 mpg player moving forward.

They didn't have a 6th man last year or a PF and added Jabari Parker. A player who as a 7th man showed that he is a tier below M. Harrell. It will be interesting to see how he does in moreso the 7th man role in our system. Parker was horrific as a starting PF and should always be a 7th man but this is value we didn't have last year. We didn't have a backup PF at all. Nique stated this about Parker. I am not as optimistic.

“He going to surprise a lot of people. People don’t really know how good this kid is,” said Wilkins. “This kid can play. I mean plain and simple, Jabari Parker has talent. I think you’re going to see an amazing young player.”

I see a team that has 1-4. Fit, talent, system and a star player in Trae Young. So I am higher on the Hawks. I was higher on the Kings last year for similar reasons. I am higher on the Kings again for similar reasons. I based all of my measures off of this system. It's the only system that tends to match my eye test. I watch a lot of teams via LP. I have a good fit for most of the league. Teams I don't have as good of a feel for is PHX, new OKC and SA. Other than those three. I do.

I'll make it quick on Indy.

Not a believer in the fit which I was a believer in last year. While I do like some of the players they added, I feel like they get in the way more than last year. To be frank, I was high on the guys they lost. Bogdan was one of my highest reviewed role players of last year. He passed the eye test even more than his data shows. Thad Young always is an eye test star for me. Collison lost will be huge. I like the players they added, just don't like them without a star. None of them honestly. With Dipo, I am much more higher on them. Brodgon fits Dipo. Him at the 3 and Dipo at the 2 with an upped tempo and their style of defense is tough to stop in the RS. But neither is a 1. Holiday who I am expecting to make a major jump, still might not be ready for what's to come. Sabonis and Turner together metrics aren't good at all. Sometimes you can add more talent but get worse fit and system wise. Ask Boston about this. I am not high on them without Dipo. Dipo can carry them into the playoffs, he is just that good with the style of play of Indy but without him, tough sledging. I personally think Brodgon metrics are fugazi just from the eye test. He is not that good as a main piece. His value is being a top end complimentary piece. That's his best value. Robert Covington for example is case and point.

Indy will miss those guys they lost for now but probably not for long. Once Dipo is back, he has a better shot now at winning in the playoffs. Still needs a legit SF but Turner really shadows well so it's not as big of a deal as it generally would be. They are built to be a long term team. For that reason alone, Indy had a TREMENDOUS offseason.

Edit: Add WCJ to massive jump list. I must have forgot to add him to that list too.

Here is a great article about him: https://www.thestepien.com/2019/08/06/wendell-carter-second-year-breakout/

King Ken wrote:Edit: Add WCJ to massive jump list. I must have forgot to add him to that list too.

Here is a great article about him: https://www.thestepien.com/2019/08/06/wendell-carter-second-year-breakout/

I love Wendell Carter, Jr.


IMO, he's the perfect addition to this lineup. The ideal starting Center next to Trae and Collins.

Based on your own parameters I'd probably drop Atlanta below all the 7t teams and above the 10t teams. I think you got a pretty good handle on everything they got but you understate thier inexperience.

They're inexperienced enough that one might question some of thier talents at times. Will thier rookies even contribute this year in a meaningful way? Last year you guys got lucky. 2 players from one draft that both contribute in a big way in thier rookie years? If all your rookies work out this year the Atlanta Hawks are the best drafting team since the Warriors.

None of that changes my opinion on the Hawks longterm view. I got my own stuff to deal with with the Knicks but I think the Hawks are gonna be the funnest team to watch this year, probably be a little better than last year, fighting for the 8th seed. After that watch out. They're gonna have all those attributes.


I liked your analysis Ken

Nazrmohamed wrote:Based on your own parameters I'd probably drop Atlanta below all the 7t teams and above the 10t teams. I think you got a pretty good handle on everything they got but you understate thier inexperience.

They're inexperienced enough that one might question some of thier talents at times. Will thier rookies even contribute this year in a meaningful way? Last year you guys got lucky. 2 players from one draft that both contribute in a big way in thier rookie years? If all your rookies work out this year the Atlanta Hawks are the best drafting team since the Warriors.

None of that changes my opinion on the Hawks longterm view. I got my own stuff to deal with with the Knicks but I think the Hawks are gonna be the funnest team to watch this year, probably be a little better than last year, fighting for the 8th seed. After that watch out. They're gonna have all those attributes.


I liked your analysis Ken

I didn't rate the rookies on average even if I have personal expectations of each player. I really tend to avoiding rating them but if I don't like them, I do mark them as a net negative. I think the only rookie I rated in the east was R.J. Mainly due to the fact that I know he will be in a face of the franchise role as Trae Young was for Atlanta last year. When I like them a lot, I usually have them at replacement level. Which is where I have Hunter, Reddish, Grant Williams, Tyler Herro and Rui H. I actually have R.J. as less than replacement level as I did with Trae as a rookie but the fact that I rated him means I believe his ceiling/role will play a massive role in how NY goes from here.

I am a strong believer that youth isn't a sign of wins/losses in the RS just based on data. That fit, talent, and system reigns supreme. Having a strong star player does as well. That's why I was higher last year on Sacramento than most. Why I am much higher on them than most this year. Why I was much higher on Denver last year than most. I follow trends. I strongly value your team's 2nd half of the season. I don't put too much stock into playoff performances for RS projections. Since I've answered this...

Let's go to your point about Atlanta. They are in one of the highest percentiles of projections while being more closer to the middle than the top. They rate highly in my four critical areas. They added players in major weak areas where even replacement level is a massive upgrade so even there weaknesses aren't at high as previously seen. As I've stated, I am much higher on Trae Young expecting a big jump from his 2nd half of 2018-19 and a massive jump from his expected projections based on 2018-19.

I think Atlanta got lucky last year based on how quickly those two (Trae & Kevin) adjusted. I had them as rawer prospects. I marked Kevin for Erie and Trae to be one of the worst players with his MPG in the NBA and in the 2nd half, show flashes like De'Aaron Fox did as a rookie. Trae adjusted sooner than expected (Mid Dec) and Kevin was ready in Dec which was a shock to even LP considering LP had him marked for no mins to beginning the year. I actually like Cam and De'Andre a lot. Both are plus defenders day 1. Cam is going to his optimal situation after playing in his least effective role in Duke than probably any other college in the NCAAs. De'Andre is one of versatile players to enter the NBA in years.Both players were exceptionally high on my Hawks big board. Cam was #2 behind Zion. Hunter was #4 beyond R.J. I have much higher expectations for them than I had for Trae and Kevin as rookies.

That said, I just have them as replacement level players for this chart. 24-27 mpg players with + defense and - offense on this projection. My expectations is much higher. Especially for Cam Reddish which is for another topic. I personally think Cam is rare. For me, him and Lonzo Ball are two of my favorite prospects but they have to be in very good situations and ideally, a perfect one. Zo who was in a very good situation at UCLA is was in an average to below average one in LA. Now in NO, his situation is not that much better. Cam was in an awful situation at Duke for his game. I mean, he could have went anywhere and it would have been better. Anywhere! But it actually wasn't too bad, they made him develop his defense more and he learn to become a movement player to a degree. Now, he is in the optimal situation. This is what makes guys turn into stars and superstars and in the opposite locks guys into role playing roles which they were much more talented for.

That said, none of that matters for projections. The Hawks are purely based at 44 wins min by me simply based on my system. If that's 8th seed or better or worse, then that's where I expected them to be at worst if healthy.

That's a big jump, I had them last year at 26 wins at most and that's without taking into account tanking which is all so common that time of the year. I have them at +18.