Hawks offense in Year 2 under Lloyd and Trae

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Shooting woes, poor defense and Trae Young: The analytics behind Atlanta’s 4-16 start

It has been a disastrous start for Atlanta, a team that some believed could potentially sneak into the Eastern Conference playoffs this season. Playoff talks are paused, as the Hawks are currently on a 10-game losing streak and tied for the worst record (4-16) in the East alongside the woeful New York Knicks.

Q. Three-point shooting continues to be a concern for the Hawks, and entering Monday’s game against Golden State, they’re second-to-last in the league at 31.2 percent and their number of attempts from last season are down. Is this a result of just shots not falling or are they not getting clean looks? Or could it just be the construction of this roster doesn’t feature shooters who are as good as last year’s roster?

A. Some of both. Last season, 65.4 percent of the 3s the Hawks generated were taken with at least 6 feet of space to the nearest defender. This year, that number is 47.2 percent; this represents a massive shift in overall shot quality.

But Atlanta also has less talented shooters taking those open shots they generate. In 2018-19, Atlanta was 16th in “average shooter quality,” as measured by their weighted career average accuracy on open 3s of 37.7 percent. So far this year, they are down to 28th, with an average of 36.2 percent.

The Athletic

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Collins is one of the best young big men in the NBA. He’s an athletic player who finishes strong at the rim, runs the pick-and-roll efficiently with Trae Young and acts as a defensive anchor in the paint. His absence presented a bit of a dilemma for Hawks head coach Lloyd Pierce, as he sought to find an answer to temporarily replace Collins in the lineup.

“I think John and Trae are the most dynamic pick-and-roll tandem in the league. To not have John, we miss a big part of our offense,” Pierce said before a recent game against the Los Angeles Clippers. “I say it all the time, John is the most significant part of what we do because of his ability to force defenders to come and help when he rolls, and his ability to catch lobs. What that does is it opens up three-point shooting.”

“The pick-and-roll aspect, it’s trying to get behind the defense. As coach always says, watch whenever Trae is coming off. Trae’s a great passer, he finds open guys and makes everything easier on the court,” Damion Jones told Basketball Insiders. “It’s been playing defense, finding different areas to get open, finishing when Trae or whoever throws a lob. Or off the pick, finishing at the rim and stuff like that.”

When Jones arrived in Atlanta, he felt as if the offensive system the Hawks ran was similar to what he was accustomed to. In his second year, Young is one of the most explosive point guards in the league who loves getting out in transition. Jones felt like he could definitely build upon his production with the Warriors playing in this system.

“The system here is not too far from what I was used to in Golden State,” Jones told Basketball Insiders. “I’m just trying to carry that over to where I am now. It’s been good so far.”

Basketball Insiders

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Touches on Trae, Huerter and The 3 rooks.

Pierce sat with Reddish and Hunter on the plane ride to Atlanta from Chicago last week and asked them how they were feeling after 25 games in the NBA. Hunter and Reddish looked at each other and smiled, and both said how hard the league is. They still couldn’t figure out back-to-back games yet or how to be consistent on a nightly basis.

Reddish said the NBA kind of reminds him of AAU basketball, in which teams play multiple games per day sometimes and numerous times in one weekend tournament. He feels like he’s becoming more used to the travel demands and the daily grind, but he, too, has struggled.

The Hawks enter Tuesday’s game against the New York Knicks with a 6-21 record, and the totality of losing and personal struggles have weighed heavily on Reddish, but he has been trying to keep a positive mindset.

“It’s difficult. It’s different than anything I’ve ever been in,” Reddish said. “In this process, the one thing I will never do is question God’s timing. We just have to stick with it and continue to trust the coaches and each other. I feel like we have the potential to be very good in the future. We have to get used to each other, and that is going to take time. I feel like we’re improving each and every day. We just have to stay with it.

“I think things are definitely getting better for me on and off the court. I feel like I’m becoming more of myself. I just have to stick with it and continue to grow.”

Spoiler:

Bruno Fernando couldn’t sleep on the short flight from Phoenix to Los Angeles a month ago. Even if he wanted to get a short nap in, he couldn’t. His thoughts felt suffocating. He arrived at the team’s hotel in Beverley Hills, went to his room and crawled into bed. He still couldn’t sleep. His mind raced and wandered.

Fernando needed help but felt like he was in a situation where the solution he sought didn’t rise from a particular problem he was facing, and it scared him. He couldn’t figure out what he needed to do and couldn’t pinpoint what was really causing his on-court struggles.

He wasn’t injured. He wasn’t out of shape. He still had the same skills he possessed at Maryland, the ones that got him drafted in the second round. Why couldn’t he find his footing in the league, he wondered.

He couldn’t control his thoughts the night before the Hawks were blown out by the Los Angeles Clippers. He stayed up all night. He wanted to text head coach Lloyd Pierce late at night but didn’t want to bother him as he slept, so he waited until 6 a.m. to ask if they could chat in Pierce’s room. They talked for more than an hour about basketball, how to navigate adulthood and everything a young player has to do to last in the NBA.

“Every player wants to be successful and wants things to go their way,” Fernando said. “That’s not always going to be the case right away. I was thinking about everything I put into getting to this point. I was thinking about everything I’ve done in my career so far. I was thinking about the struggles I’ve been having and how I can get better. I learned that I needed to be patient and not rush anything. I can’t seek perfection if I’m not willing to give it time. He gave me an example of Trae (Young) struggling in November and not to get discouraged with myself just because I was struggling. It’s hard when you’re struggling and you just can’t figure it out. It’s different when you’re going through struggles and you know the reason for them, but it’s totally different when you’re struggling and you don’t know why. That’s where I was at that night, and the conversation helped me a lot and made me realize I just need to relax and be patient.”

Patience is challenging for each of the young players on the roster — and especially for Fernando because he plays the least out of the rookies and second-year players. There are nights when Fernando sits for the first three quarters and is inserted late in the fourth quarter for garbage time. He might be fully rested by the time he goes in, but learning how to be impactful in meaningless minutes has been difficult for the rookie.

“Not knowing when you’re going to play or if you’re going to play is the hardest part,” Fernando said. “Just being ready whenever your name is called is tough. Sometimes, you’re sitting in the first, second and third, and then your name is called in the fourth to come in and make an impact with everyone else who has been on the floor already. You just have to get yourself in that mindset to get ready, and I feel like that’s the most challenging part for me right now.

“Every athlete wants to play and do whatever it takes to help their team win. At the same time, with this situation I’m in, I understand every decision the coaching staff makes. It’s a matter of time, and I have to stay patient, and when I do get my opportunity to try and perform the best I can to do whatever I can to help the team win.”

[Jamaaliver]

...I just decided to write down a few of my thoughts:

Stop jerking 3PT shots from the logo, it's not gonna help you. Period.

Obviously, Lloyd Pierce needs to learn TONS of basics.

I saw this article, OLIGO, and immediately thought of you.

Enjoy.

How deep, audacious 3-pointers are taking over the NBA

There's no formal definition for deep 3s, but let's label them as non-heave attempts that occur at least 3 feet beyond the 3-point arc. The numbers behind these jumpers from 26.75 feet or farther are startling.

Go to an NBA game in 2019 and you're more than twice as likely to see a 27-foot jumper than a 16-footer. In 2013-14, those numbers were complete opposites: Midrangers were more than twice as popular as deep balls.

Spoiler:

The deeper the shot, the harder it gets to keep the ball straight.

"The ball can go left or right," says Damian Lillard. "You can air-ball. It's far out, so there's more room for error."

Lillard now routinely sinks 80% or more of his deep 3s in practice. By the time the 2019 playoffs rolled around, those bold attempts were paying huge dividends. And a move like this? There's a reason Dame made it look so easy.

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...since his workouts in the 2018 offseason, nobody in the NBA has made more deep 3s than Lillard has. But he's not alone in deep space.

The league is suddenly full of players who are able to hit jump shots from way downtown, including two of the brightest young stars in the game. Trae Young and Luka Doncic lead the league in deep-3 activity this season, according to Second Spectrum data. Doncic is 20 years old and launching 6.2 deep 3s per game. Young is 21 and shooting 6.3.

And this phenomenon extends beyond just superstar shooters. More and more players are launching more and more deep 3s. Just six years after only three NBA players averaged at least one long 3 per game, there are now 44 players crossing that threshold.



This season, an average 27-footer has yielded 1.05 points per shot, while an average 16-footer nets a pathetic 0.80 points per attempt, according to Second Spectrum tracking data. Of the 12 players who have tried at least 50 deep 3s in 2019-20, seven are shooting 36% or better, and four are shooting over 40%.

The shooting skills of NBA players have exploded. Sharpshooters such as Curry and Lillard captured the hearts and minds of young players around the globe. Just as a young Kobe Bryant wanted to be like Mike, the prodigies of today seek to shoot like Curry and Lillard. That means one thing for the future of the NBA: more deep-range splashes.

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Jesus

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Plays like this is why I miss Dedmon at the top of the key.

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Kevin Huerter admits that it can be hard sometimes to stay engaged in the game with how ball-dominant Young is. Young is fourth in the league in usage rate...With how the Hawks’ offense is engineered, Young is going to have the ball in his hands, and it’s up to everyone else to figure out how to fit in with him.

“It’s just one of those things though that you say whatever converts to winning basketball. That’s really the goal going into it," said Huerter. "He’s up there with the usage rate, but he’s really good with the ball in his hands. At the end of the day, he’s good. As a teammate, you have to fit into your role, and that’s what winning teams do.”

The Hawks have changed their primary offensive action a few times this year so Huerter’s role has changed. They started the season running lots of high ball screens and then changed to getting him the ball down low off of pin-downs, and now they are using lots of dribble handoffs so Huerter can come down and get the ball on his right hand.

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With the NBA season more than half over, what does each team’s offense look like? Which offenses need fixing?

Synergy uses tracking data to break scoring plays down to 11 basic forms: cuts, handoffs, isolations, plays off screens, pick-and-roll ball-handler, pick-and-roll roll-man, post-ups, spot-ups, transition plays, putbacks, and misc. Ignoring putbacks and misc plays, we can achieve a basic understanding of how each halfcourt offense is run.

How to read the graphs

The height of the circle represents the team’s points per possession for the given play-type.

The size of the circle depicts the frequency with which the team uses the given play.

The color of the circle shows the team’s points per possession (PPP) vs. league average for the play.

More red = better than league average.

More blue = worse than league average.

Atlanta Hawks

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I see Huerter mentioned in this stat and I do wonder why we don't run Huerter off more off-ball screens to get him open for catch and shoot jumpers.

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I appreciate that he's a capable secondary ball handler when teams double Trae, but I'd love to see more action where he starts on the weakside, gets a screen then sprints to the opposite side of the court for the catch and shoot.

It could be especially useful when Capela gets back since he otherwise won't be much of a threat from outside.

Running KH off of curls and having the screener dive to the rim could give Trae multiple options to pass for easy/open shots.

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Well, I'll be damned

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