2020 NBA Draft Lottery

Post #1 » by **Jamaaliver** » Tue Aug 18, 2020 3:42 pm

graymule · Post #2 » by **graymule** » Tue Aug 18, 2020 4:44 pm

The lower we go, the higher our odds become until we reach 7th. Very low odds for #8.
One of the few things that Hawk fans has to look forward to right now is the draft.
We find out where we fall and then we wait and wait!!

:nod:

_s_t_u_r_t_ · Post #3 » by **_s_t_u_r_t_** » Tue Aug 18, 2020 6:24 pm

Better than 50% chance we're lower than #4, of course. But dang, we are SOOOO overdue for that #1, aren't we? Is Anthony Edwards the 2020 version of David Skywalker Thompson? And can we safely say there will be no ABA competing with us for his services, if it came to that?

Spud2nique · Post #4 » by **Spud2nique** » Wed Aug 19, 2020 7:13 am

I predict #2. :nod:

I got a 6th sense!

shakes0 · Post #5 » by **shakes0** » Wed Aug 19, 2020 1:05 pm

I don't understand. We have the 4th worst record, why do we have the best odds for getting #6 pick?

_s_t_u_r_t_ · Post #6 » by **_s_t_u_r_t_** » Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:49 pm

The math makes it so the most likely scenario is that, of the 4 options that would displace us from the #4 to something lesser (ie, either 1, 2, 3, or 4 teams from below us leap into the top 4, forcing us down), the most likely is that there would be 2 instead of 1, 3 or 4.

Post #7 » by **Jamaaliver** » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:17 pm

shakes0 wrote:I don't understand. We have the 4th worst record, why do we have the best odds for getting #6 pick?

It's just the math on probability.

We're still more likely to get a top-4 pick, but of all the individual slots -- because of so many possible scenarios of teams leap frogging us -- #6 has a 25% chance.

But based on sturt's chart above, we have a 48% chance of selecting 1, 2, 3 or 4. That's the most important thing.

(Similarly, GSW and CLE are each most likely to end up with the 5th pick than any other individual selection. Because there are so many possible scenarios.)

shakes0 · Post #8 » by **shakes0** » Wed Aug 19, 2020 3:25 pm

Jamaaliver wrote:
shakes0 wrote:I don't understand. We have the 4th worst record, why do we have the best odds for getting #6 pick?

It's just the math on probability.

We're still more likely to get a top-4 pick, but of all the individual slots -- because of so many possible scenarios of teams leap frogging us -- #6 has a 25% chance.

But based on sturt's chart above, we have a 48% chance of selecting 1, 2, 3 or 4. That's the most important thing.

(Similarly, GSW and CLE are each most likely to end up with the 5th pick than any other individual selection. Because there are so many possible scenarios.)

Thanks Jamaal, this is why I went to law school...no math. :lol:

Post #9 » by **Jamaaliver** » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:23 am

NBA Draft Lottery Preview: What's at Stake for All 14 Teams

Atlanta Hawks (20-47)

Odds to win: 12.5%

Odds of top-four finish: 48.1%

Having made trades in the lottery in consecutive drafts under Travis Schlenk, at this point it’s sensible to view the Hawks’ pick as movable and fluid, regardless of where it lands. If Atlanta wins the No. 1 pick, it’s hard to see it passing on a potential hometown star in Anthony Edwards (who was personally scouted by Schlenk and owner Tony Ressler on at least one occasion this season). But the Hawks love to pick up draft assets and maximize flexibility, and with a young star in Trae Young and developing talent at every position, could be open to moving around in the lottery. Young’s presence makes it tough to see them ending up with one of the available guards, but it’s unclear whether their trade for Clint Capela (intended to bolster their defense and accelerate a playoff push) would preclude them from taking a younger big like Wiseman or Okongwu.

SI.com

Worst_to_First · Post #10 » by **Worst_to_First** » Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:27 am

Good luck tomorrow guys!

jayu70 · Post #11 » by **jayu70** » Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:50 am

Worst_to_First wrote:Good luck tomorrow guys!

You too. Go get that #2 pick :wink:

Post #12 » by **HMFFL** » Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:55 am

We need it as much as you do.
Cheers to both of our teams.

Worst_to_First wrote:Good luck tomorrow guys!

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

_s_t_u_r_t_ · Post #13 » by **_s_t_u_r_t_** » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:11 am

At least this time, there's no Patrick Ewing hanging in the balance.

tbhawksfan1 · Post #14 » by **tbhawksfan1** » Thu Aug 20, 2020 10:40 am

A little lottery love would be perfect to conclude our rebuild lottery picks.

DirtybirdGA · Post #15 » by **DirtybirdGA** » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:14 pm

Yes we don't want to see ms Jamie in that capacity anymore...unless a trade would happen.

lethalweapon3 · Post #16 » by **lethalweapon3** » Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:42 pm

It can't possibly be a Draft Lottery Day unless a certain something goes down! lol

Rest in Power to Mrs. Pollin, but let's hope Mrs. Gertz gets to make a face like this tonight!

(I don't really want #1 this year, but moving up and staying ahead of most of the Eastern clubs once more would be nice!)

Go Hawks!

~lw3

King Ken · Post #17 » by **King Ken** » Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:05 pm

As usual, things go down on big-time days.

jayu70 · Post #18 » by **jayu70** » Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:15 pm

King Ken wrote:As usual, things go down on big-time days.

Un-freakin-believable

Spud2nique · Post #19 » by **Spud2nique** » Thu Aug 20, 2020 3:50 pm

lethalweapon3 wrote:It can't possibly be a Draft Lottery Day unless a certain something goes down! lol

Rest in Power to Mrs. Pollin, but let's hope Mrs. Gertz gets to make a face like this tonight!

(I don't really want #1 this year, but moving up and staying ahead of most of the Eastern clubs once more would be nice!)

Go Hawks!

~lw3

DRAFT DAY!!! :nod:

I can’t believe it’s gonna be our last year participating. Awww

marco102 · Post #20 » by **marco102** » Thu Aug 20, 2020 7:00 pm

Haha, I was thinking the same thing. At least we have our backup. I'm not going to watch the draft lottery. I'll just check in here about 8:59 and follow the carniage.