2) At the same time, the talk about the potential for amnesty, if it proves correct, would allow some teams in especially dire circumstances to take a machete to their payroll by whacking off a player whose salary is ridiculous in comparison to their contributions.
Plausibly those two factors mainly counteract each other such that the teams with the cap space capacity to make large contract offers beyond the MLE (~9m) will remain at about 6-7. But where it helps ATL lies in the potential that someone gets amnestied that ATL could then, go after in free agency and score a very reasonable deal.
Would we amnesty Dedmon? Probably not, but we could if the right situation emerged and Schlenk felt he had to pounce.
3) Another major factor that almost certainly will affect a handful of teams is the pandemic's affect on the majority owner's other businesses. The most glaring one is someone who was already facing a downward slide due to the evolving nature of retail away from shopping malls--ie, Herb Simon, the aging owner of the Pacers and one of the largest commercial real estate tycoons in the nation. The long term rating on his business was already bearish, but since the beginning of the pandemic, the value has tanked by about 2/3. He may not be alone. Not that the Simon family will be seeking food stamps anytime soon, but budget tightening had already begun to occur in IND (shrunk by $5m b/t last and this year payroll), and now it's just that much more likely, of course.
So where does that leave us?
Schlenk probably has about the same or a little better chance through all of this to exploit the situation to add a significant talent to the roster. But/and what he's said in the last 24-ish hours is that he is open to renting cap space once again, and that suggests he's going to be very content to wait at least until next season's trade deadline and perhaps up through next off-season's free agency period for that significant talent. But there seemed to be some implication by virtue of the context of him saying that, that he could be persuaded to package a deal involving the #6 pick and taking back a rental salary--ostensibly in return for some player who couldn't be had w/o accepting the rental salary in the deal.
But let's say nothing emerges on the cap space rental front that is attractive, or for that matter, on the trading front period... what might the roster look like if all of the additions come via draft and free agency?
Here's one vision of what could happen.
In this scenario, the big assumption is that Schlenk values Christian Wood as a budding star, and would move to outbid the Pistons. Personally, I had Wood pegged at ~$20m in pre-pandemic dollars, but I've been reading where some think the price will be closer to $15m. So I split the difference. I still think he will be a hot commodity.
The other big assumption is that Hayward would become available via amnesty, and could be signed then for a more practical number. As I've said earlier today in another post, Hayward would be an ideal add to this roster even if this injury would prove to be more difficult to come back from than anyone is currently suggesting. That's because ATL doesn't expect to win a championship in 2021, but does expect to make giant strides beyond where they've been. On a reasonable contract, Hayward could fill a role similar to Uncle Vince for 2020-21, and there could be a toehold established that would keep him in ATL beyond that.
Finally, the new kid would not be thrown into the fire the way his predecessors have been. I envision a progression at back-up point guard that begins with Teague receiving most of those minutes early, but then Shaq Harrison mostly taking over, and toward the end of the season, Haliburton gets some minutes there. But overall, Haliburton's first year is divided between mop-up SG and mop-up PG duties.