ImageImage

Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo)

Moderators: dms269, Jamaaliver, HMFFL

_s_t_u_r_t_
Starter
Posts: 2,077
And1: 553
Joined: Jun 13, 2007
     

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together 

Post#21 » by _s_t_u_r_t_ » Wed Sep 9, 2020 6:48 pm

Ball4life32 wrote:But I’m confused here....you’re saying people are harping too much on the poor 7 games during the bubble (which I don’t disagree)...but should we be taking the even shorter sample (5 games) more seriously?


The answer to that question is, no.

But I believe the question accepts a premise that probably isn't correct, ie, that the writer was proposing extending Lonzo on the basis of just those 5 games.

Do you believe that premise? I'd be surprised if you do.

A more holistic understanding of what he was saying, seems to me, is that Lonzo was already having a head-turning season and that the most recent games had begun to show what he's actually capable of doing as he continues to develop... that, as have other top 10 picks on occasion, he's begun to show, albeit a few seasons beyond being drafted, what got him drafted that high in the first place, and that the projections maybe were spot on after all.

No? That's not your take on what he was asserting?

Ball4life32 wrote:Problem is Lonzo can’t get to the line....yes he needs to improve his shoot FT % but how does that blogger expect him to add 4-5 more ppg by just improving the %? He only shoots 1.2 FT per game this past yr & for his career (Huerter is at 1.1 in 2 less min for example)...Like I was saying before I’m already skeptical on his shot but I see nothing to suggest he can up his FT volume to even potentially add those 4-5 ppg ...


I do not disagree.

I would only temper that by saying there is some hole in practically every 22 year-old's game where he could stand to grow... and that sometimes, not always of course, it happens that they do, indeed, grow. This particular area seems significant, but at the same time, not the most arduous in which to improve.
Ball4life32
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,980
And1: 1,537
Joined: Dec 05, 2013

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together 

Post#22 » by Ball4life32 » Wed Sep 9, 2020 8:08 pm

_s_t_u_r_t_ wrote:
Ball4life32 wrote:But I’m confused here....you’re saying people are harping too much on the poor 7 games during the bubble (which I don’t disagree)...but should we be taking the even shorter sample (5 games) more seriously?


The answer to that question is, no.

But I believe the question accepts a premise that probably isn't correct, ie, that the writer was proposing extending Lonzo on the basis of just those 5 games.

Do you believe that premise? I'd be surprised if you do.

A more holistic understanding of what he was saying, seems to me, is that Lonzo was already having a head-turning season and that the most recent games had begun to show what he's actually capable of doing as he continues to develop... that, as have other top 10 picks on occasion, he's begun to show, albeit a few seasons beyond being drafted, what got him drafted that high in the first place, and that the projections maybe were spot on after all.

No? That's not your take on what he was asserting?

Ball4life32 wrote:Problem is Lonzo can’t get to the line....yes he needs to improve his shoot FT % but how does that blogger expect him to add 4-5 more ppg by just improving the %? He only shoots 1.2 FT per game this past yr & for his career (Huerter is at 1.1 in 2 less min for example)...Like I was saying before I’m already skeptical on his shot but I see nothing to suggest he can up his FT volume to even potentially add those 4-5 ppg ...


I do not disagree.

I would only temper that by saying there is some hole in practically every 22 year-old's game where he could stand to grow... and that sometimes, not always of course, it happens that they do, indeed, grow. This particular area seems significant, but at the same time, not the most arduous in which to improve.

Honestly wouldn’t doubt if it’s part of the reason (even if it’s small) but definitely the false premise of just improving the FT shooting to add 4-5 ppg & become an all star is probably a big reason why he thinks he’s worth the max imo.

Also he says his only real weakness is FT shooting -

Lonzo .442% inside the arc (2pt%) on low volume (4.2 per game)....ranked #118 out of #128 qualifiers this past year. Aligns with his career %’s as well. Definitely another weakness.

Yes he did shoot better from 3 this year (.375 on high volume) but for his career he’s @ .341 from 3. Not saying it’s impossible, but I’m still not convinced at all that he’s going to be a consistently above average or even average 3 point shooter from now on like I’m assuming the writer is suggesting since it doesn’t sound like he thinks it’s a weakness. Guys that have to change their form scare me. And considering he’s shoots more 3’s than 2’s + struggles to get the FT line, I think he will struggle to score without a consistent shot....
_s_t_u_r_t_
Starter
Posts: 2,077
And1: 553
Joined: Jun 13, 2007
     

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#23 » by _s_t_u_r_t_ » Wed Sep 9, 2020 9:11 pm

All well-taken. There are going to be differences in how individuals project a player's future development.

Repeating myself, I'm just asserting that there was no shortage of enthusiasm, pre-bubble, for Lonzo's future.

If he were 27, or even 25, I'd be more inclined to write-off that enthusiasm as just hyperbole destined to crash land eventually.

But at 22, I'm persuaded there's some good reason for investing in him, particularly so beside Trae, who I'm persuaded would be so much more complementary than Jrue or Rajon have been (...as Schmitz' assessment outlined in the screenshot on the previous page).
Ball4life32
Sixth Man
Posts: 1,980
And1: 1,537
Joined: Dec 05, 2013

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#24 » by Ball4life32 » Wed Sep 9, 2020 9:30 pm

Yeah don’t get me wrong, I’d love to have him if Schlenk could get him in the right deal. Fits the timeline perfectly.
Radioblacktive1
Senior
Posts: 583
And1: 463
Joined: Jun 26, 2017
   

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#26 » by Radioblacktive1 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:26 pm

What could we give up for him? I don’t wanna break up the core and I don’t wanna give up the 6th. Could we package some 2nds?
jayu70
RealGM
Posts: 11,146
And1: 8,048
Joined: Mar 11, 2014
   

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#27 » by jayu70 » Sat Sep 12, 2020 6:43 pm

Radioblacktive1 wrote:What could we give up for him? I don’t wanna break up the core and I don’t wanna give up the 6th. Could we package some 2nds?

OKC 2022 1st, lottery protected then 2 2nds.
raleigh
Lead Assistant
Posts: 5,561
And1: 94
Joined: Oct 23, 2004

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#28 » by raleigh » Sun Sep 13, 2020 2:36 pm

jayu70 wrote:
Radioblacktive1 wrote:What could we give up for him? I don’t wanna break up the core and I don’t wanna give up the 6th. Could we package some 2nds?

OKC 2022 1st, lottery protected then 2 2nds.


No thanks.

A 4th year player who:

*Is on the last year of a rookie deal
*Doesn't get pts via free throws
*Is most effective with the ball in his hands
_s_t_u_r_t_
Starter
Posts: 2,077
And1: 553
Joined: Jun 13, 2007
     

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#29 » by _s_t_u_r_t_ » Sun Sep 13, 2020 4:18 pm

The beauty of obtaining Lonzo at this moment in time is

(a) at least among NOP fans, there seems to be some contentment with letting him go for cheap based on the bubble performance,

(b) if Jay Williams is to be believed, that contentment is also somewhat reflective of the thinking going on in the NOP front office,

(c) Schlenk has given insight into his off-season plans, and one quote is specifically indicative of interest in players that are coming off of their rookie deal,

(d) assuming a right price w/ Griffin can be negotiated, Schlenk effectively gets a former #2 pick on a one-year "prove-it" deal, or it remains in-play to sign him to a team-friendly extension of some kind,

(e) every player has holes in his game... the question is largely whether the player's age and mental make-up allow reason to believe improvement may occur... in this case, Lonzo's 22... the YouTube video is indicative of someone who isn't satisfied and wants to get better... and, what's more, as pointed out in the graphic above, there's history that Lonzo can be significantly more effective at drawing fouls.

As Schmitz wrote in the earlier post, Lonzo is a "five-tool guard," who "simply put... needs to be next to another guard who can score and playmake in pick and roll."

But as much as he's an exceptional facilitator and can be an exceptional perimeter shooter (https://fadeawayworld.net/2020/03/06/lonzo-ball-is-shooting-better-from-3-than-trae-young-devin-booker-bradley-beal-and-luka-doncic/)... my enthusiasm is only what it is on the basis of his defensive highlight reels. His hands are so quick. His instincts are so exceptional.

He is what I would hope Halliburton would prove to be, if we were to draft him... and while there is an argument that says, "why not do that instead," I think we're entering a phase in the team evolution now that is better advanced by adding players with some degree of real NBA experience under their belt. So, really, it becomes an issue that is the same issue as adding Oladipo; but whereas the price for Oladipo seems likely to be unreasonably high given IND's perspective and that context, it's much more likely that NOP would not be nearly so unreasonable. In fact, if they were to go for #13 plus Lonzo for #6, to the contrary, that's practically a no-brainer in my book.

Addendum

Now, some may feel there are better options. I hear that.

Mind you, I was among the first (as far as I've had reason to read) to assert that Schlenk needs to score a top-tier talent (equate to the GSW acquisition of Iguodala at just the right time), and preferably this off-season over next b/c of the lesser competition in view of ATL's bad history (perhaps mostly due to team ownership/leadership, but arguably b/c of the market size) of attracting elite talent. Moreover, as I was making that assertion, I was led to it largely by a literature review of what the man himself has said, both recently and in the lead-up to and during past off-seasons with regard to his philosophy on roster building and talent acquisition.

In other words, it wasn't actually my idea, it was Schlenk's to begin with.

Stating the obvious--it's not clear that there are any elite talents that can be acquired, or at least not without significantly dipping into the "young core" that we know Schlenk has also indicated with some passion that he wants to see play together, particularly now that Capela--who I refer to as Schlenk's Bogut--has been obtained.

Best opportunity is Brandon Ingram, but NOP and NYK are both almost certainly ahead of us in that line. (Failing a NYK offer, though, the only reason for Schlenk not to pursue Ingram would be if he views Ingram as fool's gold... which, in reality, is plausible, but not probable.)

Next best opportunity is trading for Victor Oladipo, but that's even less likely to occur if one is prone, like I am, to believe that IND isn't going to accept what a player in his condition and for only one year of contract is soberly worth.

Next best opportunity is Gordon Hayward, but that's even still less likely to occur, essentially for the same reason that a Dipo trade isn't likely. The only shot at Hayward, in my calculus anyway, is if somehow the amnesty thing evolves into being, he's let go, and then we would bid, and win that bid. So as convoluted as it would be to get Dipo for something close to his real value in his condition, Hayward is a step beyond that because it would require a whole other development that for now is not developing.

So, I circle back to what Schlenk has said. Again. Which is that he's explicitly interested to look for players at the end of their rookie contracts and that his scouting and that of his staff has rendered as being on the cusp of taking the next significant step in their development.

Again again... not much to pick from, even when you drop back to that list. Starts with the RFAs. Dunn... Beasley... Saric... Poeltl.

And whatever you do, given that that tier of players are not elite, it has to be done in a contract that doesn't impose on the potential to still yet acquire next off-season an established top-tier player.

Dunn, imo, will end up with a starter role somewhere again, and probably a larger contract than makes sense for our purposes, given that Trae's minutes are sacred--hence the more reasonable approach to identify a talent that legitimately can get minutes both as Trae's back-up and at SG.

Beasley, imo, is not a serious consideration for the reason just stated, but also b/c whoever that guy is, he needs to be a considerable defensive asset, and the research on Beasley suggests he's just "meh." We need better than "meh" beside Trae, period.

Saric, imo, isn't someone at this point that seems likely to be anything more than he already is. So, yeah, he might be acquired I suppose, but he's well down the shopping list.

Finally, while I fully suspect Schlenk will continue to pursue Poeltl (as he reportedly did in February) to my mind, it's not that he's perceived as a possible top-tier talent of the future, but that he's an exceptional 20-ish minute guy to spell Capela's down time.



So who else can we consider?

Yep. By the process of elimination, the optimal option... for now, at least, but we'll see what fire sales might transpire once the post season is completed... is Lonzo Ball. Well, actually, no, there's two. Christian Wood has given reason for belief that he's set to ascend the ladder in a big way. I like that you can likely obtain both w/o actually imposing on your capacity next off-season to still pursue yet another high-tier talent if either or both of them don't continue to develop at the same trajectory as this season hinted they would.



Circling back to where this started... I hear that, yes, but I am not impressed that there are any other options that check the boxes. And I'm not impressed that anyone is actually legit who presents him/herself as having more insight into what Schlenk is thinking than what Schlenk himself is on the record as having explicitly said.

Maybe insight into what someone on the periphery perceives (?), but that's what we call hearsay, and there's a reason hearsay doesn't qualify as credible intel in courtrooms where big decisions are made. It's fun to see others' speculation, but at the end of the day, I feel entirely confident that Schlenk's thinking and whatever inner circle has special knowledge of his thinking are behind a fairly thick firewall.
_s_t_u_r_t_
Starter
Posts: 2,077
And1: 553
Joined: Jun 13, 2007
     

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#30 » by _s_t_u_r_t_ » Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:21 pm

Things that make you go "hmmmmm"... the sequel...

Read on Twitter
kg01
Head Coach
Posts: 6,288
And1: 8,214
Joined: Jun 28, 2017
 

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#32 » by kg01 » Mon Sep 14, 2020 3:42 pm

Radioblacktive1 wrote:Dear Trae,

Please tamper.


Ya know, with the money Klutch as gotten turds like Tristan T, Bledsoe, KCP and others, I'm not so sure I want Trae to tamper here.

Lonzo makes sense for us on paper but if they're looking to get him (over)paid, that no longer works for us in reality.
king01 :king:
Radioblacktive1
Senior
Posts: 583
And1: 463
Joined: Jun 26, 2017
   

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#33 » by Radioblacktive1 » Tue Sep 15, 2020 1:55 am

kg01 wrote:
Radioblacktive1 wrote:Dear Trae,

Please tamper.


Ya know, with the money Klutch as gotten turds like Tristan T, Bledsoe, KCP and others, I'm not so sure I want Trae to tamper here.

Lonzo makes sense for us on paper but if they're looking to get him (over)paid, that no longer works for us in reality.


Right right, so you’re saying tamper harder so Lonzo fully buys into the team concept? I like the way you think.
King Ken
General Manager
Posts: 8,856
And1: 5,093
Joined: Jul 01, 2014
   

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#34 » by King Ken » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:41 pm

Sturt, love ya but some of your guys you like to push just don't move the needle, DeRozan, Dipo, Ball, etc. Especially for how much you value them compared to how we see them
King Ken
General Manager
Posts: 8,856
And1: 5,093
Joined: Jul 01, 2014
   

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#35 » by King Ken » Tue Sep 15, 2020 12:47 pm

jayu70 wrote:
Radioblacktive1 wrote:What could we give up for him? I don’t wanna break up the core and I don’t wanna give up the 6th. Could we package some 2nds?

OKC 2022 1st, lottery protected then 2 2nds.

This is a reasonable deal for the OKC 2022 1st
_s_t_u_r_t_
Starter
Posts: 2,077
And1: 553
Joined: Jun 13, 2007
     

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#36 » by _s_t_u_r_t_ » Tue Sep 15, 2020 8:55 pm

Ball4life32 wrote:if Schlenk could get him in the right deal


I see a theme developing here. :)
_s_t_u_r_t_
Starter
Posts: 2,077
And1: 553
Joined: Jun 13, 2007
     

Re: Things that make you go "Hmmmm" dept | Look who's training together (Trae & Lonzo) 

Post#37 » by _s_t_u_r_t_ » Wed Sep 16, 2020 5:57 pm

I've previously noted that Klay @ age 22 was statistically a whole lot like Lonzo @ age 22, and what's more, in a world where Lonzo achieves something closer to his UCLA freshman year in terms of free throw production, the nod would clearly break toward Ball over Thompson.

Came across this blogger's thoughts on when is it safe to say you "know" player X's ceiling and what he'll be capable to contribute to a championship run.

https://sircharlesincharge.com/2020/01/14/how-quick-it-too-quick-nba-lonzo-ball/

Image

Return to Atlanta Hawks