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Chris Kirchner wrote:Projecting Hawks’ future: Playoff outlook, most ideal matchup

The Hawks are just six days away from wrapping up their regular season, but there’s still plenty to play for. Atlanta has yet to solidify its seeding in the Eastern Conference. I’ve seen a lot of fans say this team can make it to the Eastern Conference finals. I’m not close to saying that I think they’re one of the best four teams in the NBA, but I do think no matter who they end up playing in the first round — whether it’s the Knicks, Celtics or Heat in the 4-5 matchup, they can advance and face Philadelphia, Brooklyn or Milwaukee.

John Hollinger wrote:I agree that Atlanta looks like a very tough out if they’re fully constituted for the playoffs, especially if De’Andre Hunter gets all the way back. We haven’t seen them at full strength the entire season, but you’re looking at a potential playoff rotation where Huerter is the least threatening offensive player at positions one through four. That’s pretty potent.

How to guard that? This team has so many options at full strength! Of equal importance is the lack of players you can leave open to double-team Young (or Collins or Gallo in the post). No matter how they line up, they’re going to be a headache for opposing defenses because there’s a lot more here than just the Trae Young Show.

I think Atlanta definitely has the talent and opportunity to win a first-round playoff series. They don’t quite have the A-list talent that the Celtics or Heat do, but they have a major depth advantage and can throw a lot more different things at them. The biggest reason some will bet against them isn’t even the players, it’s Nate McMillan’s playoff history.

The second round is where I get off the bus.

John Hollinger wrote:That said, if all these teams are at full strength and the Hawks could choose their opponent, I think Atlanta might prefer facing Milwaukee. That matchup seems like one that can work in Atlanta’s favor, because the Hawks can put Capela on Giannis Antetokounmpo and still have some size (Collins) guarding Brook Lopez.

Chris Kirchner wrote:Even though the Hawks have looked competitive in their matchups against the Nets, that should be the team they should least want to see. Especially if Hunter isn’t available, I don’t think they have enough defensive talent to stop Kevin Durant, James Harden and Kyrie Irving. I think the Sixers would present a tough matchup with their size, but I do like the Hawks’ bench more so than I do the Sixers’. Atlanta would be a massive underdog — no matter if it’s Milwaukee, Philadelphia or Brooklyn — but just to be in this position this quickly would be a success for this team.

Why a potential Hawks-Knicks playoff matchup would be ideal for both teams



[I]f this ends up being the four-five matchup in the East...it’s the best-case scenario for both organizations. These are two teams that haven’t been in the playoffs in a few years — the Knicks not since 2013 — and it would guarantee that one of them would be in the second round likely facing Brooklyn or Philadelphia. I don’t think either of these teams have much of a chance in beating either of those teams, but getting to the second round would be a massive success.

It’s got lots of juice in Trae Young and Julius Randle — two long-range bombers — and it would be two teams that win in different ways. It would also be great because it would guarantee that the Hawks or Knicks — again, the Hawks or Knicks — would get to play in the second round.

The first place I’d start, a little boringly perhaps, is wondering how each team would defend the other team’s star.

Michael Cunningham wrote:Hawks shouldn’t fear the deer if they draw Bucks in NBA playoffs

I would not like the Hawks’ chances against the Nets. I don’t like any team’s chances against the Nets. Good luck slowing James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving in a seven-game series. But I’m convinced the Hawks could give the Bucks trouble now that all their rotation players are healthy.

That’s a lot different than saying the Hawks should want a first-round series against the Bucks. They obviously would have much better odds of beating the Knicks, who stand fourth in the East. That wouldn’t be easy. Knicks power forward Julius Randle is a tough matchup because he can bully defenders inside, shoot from outside and pass. The Knicks are a great defensive team.

Those things matter less than one thing: The Bucks have a superstar player, and the Knicks don’t. Randle is having a career year. Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, league MVP for two years running, is a franchise player. Antetokounmpo is the main reason why the Bucks would be heavy favorites against the Hawks.

And yet we’ve seen Antetokounmpo’s Bucks flame out as favorites for two consecutive years in the postseason. The Raptors (2019) and Heat (2020) both used a similar strategy to slow the “Greek Freak.” Build a “wall” with multiple defenders so there’s little room for Antetokounmpo to drive to the basket. The Raps and Heat prevailed by doing that and making shots. The Hawks could do the same.

Spoiler:

I’ve watched a lot of Bucks games this season, including their loss at the Spurs on Monday. I haven’t seen much evidence that Antetokounmpo and ex-Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer are closer to an answer for the wall. Opponents still pack the lane and bait Antetokounmpo into taking jumpers. He still seems determined to prove he can make them even as his accuracy shows no signs of improvement.

Antetokounmpo lets Bucks opponents off the hook when he does it. His athletic ability and impossibly long strides and arms mean one defender can’t hope to keep him away from the rim. Deploying extra bodies and making Antetokounmpo pass is risky because he’s good at it, and the Bucks have a lot of shooters. That’s still a better option than allowing Antetokounmpo a chance to swoop through the lane and drop the ball in the basket.

The knock on Budenholzer is that he hasn’t adjusted when playoff foes take away his preferred plan. Maybe that changes this year. Meanwhile, the Bucks will continue to see the “wall” for Antetokounmpo until they prove they can beat it. The Hawks have the personnel to pull it off, especially with De’Andre Hunter recently off the injured list.

The Hawks have some leeway to allow points because they are tough to stop. The Bucks aren’t as strong on defense in Year 3 with Budenholzer. Some of that probably is related to Budenholzer, like all NBA coaches, having little practice time to build cohesiveness during the COVID-19 season. Mostly it seems Milwaukee’s defense has slipped because Budenholzer’s philosophy of protecting the paint at all costs hasn’t been as effective as usual.

Milwaukee’s defensive profile is typical for a Budenholzer team. Opponents don’t take or make many shots around the basket and see few put-back chances. They get plenty of looks from 3-point and midrange. The difference this season is that Bucks opponents are making those jumpers at a higher rate. Milwaukee ranks 29th in 3-point accuracy allowed and 27th in opponent percentage on mid-range shots, according to Cleaning the Glass (garbage time excluded).

That shooting is what would give the Hawks a puncher’s chance against the Bucks in a seven-game series.

There’s a template for the Hawks to beat the Bucks. Make the 3-pointers that surely would be available, build a wall for Antetokounmpo in the halfcourt and prevent Milwaukee from running much. It’s easy to envision the underdog Hawks playing loose and free, which is when they are at their best.

The Bucks are under pressure to contend for an NBA championship. The Athletic reported last week that Budenholzer needs a “deep playoff run” to save his job. He left the rebuilding Hawks in 2018 to coach a contender. Imagine the noise around the Bucks if they were to have problems putting away the Hawks in the first round.

The knock on Budenholzer has been a failure to adjust in the playoffs when his initial plan isn’t working. I didn’t fault him for that in 2015 with the Hawks. What could he do about good shooters missing open shots? Budenholzer didn’t have that excuse in either of his past two postseasons. He had the league MVP both times. The Bucks won 60 games in 2018-19 and 56 of 73 games in 2019-20. They were heavy favorites to win the East both years. They didn’t come close.

The Bucks won’t be the top seed this year. Maybe that means Milwaukee will have more left for the playoffs. The Hawks wouldn’t have to find out until later in the postseason if they finish fifth or better in the East. Should the Hawks slip to sixth and face Milwaukee in the first round, I see no reason why they should fear the deer.

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