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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Atlanta Hawks: Three things to watch



Will this magical run by the Atlanta Hawks end here in the NBA playoffs, or will Trae Young & Co. pull off yet another upset against the Milwaukee Bucks?

It's an Eastern Conference matchup no one predicted, with the upstart Hawks -- famously 14-20 before naming Nate McMillan the interim head coach and jump-starting their run to the playoffs -- taking on two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks, who needed overtime in Game 7 to overcome the Brooklyn Nets. What can Young and the Hawks do on offense against the best defense in the league? Does Atlanta have an answer for Giannis?

1) Jrue Holiday covering Trae Young

Things are not going to get easier for Trae Young.

He spent the last series with 6’11” of Ben Simmons draped all over him — the guy second in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Young still averaged 29 points and 10.9 assists a game against the 76ers, but he wasn’t efficient doing it, shooting 39.2% overall and 32.3% from 3 for the series. Look at it this way, Young’s 53.9 true shooting percentage against Philly was five percentage points lower than his regular season average.

Now Young will see Jrue Holiday — an All-Defensive Team member himself who is both physical and has quick feet — every game. Behind Holiday is a better connected defensive team in the Bucks than the Hawks saw last round. Both Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo serve as rim protectors and a difficult second line of defense. The Bucks will primarily use a drop coverage that opens up Young’s floater game and some lobs to John Collins and Clint Capela, but overall, the Hawks face a team that has been better defensively in these playoffs five points per 100 possessions better — than the 76ers.

Young is not going to win the Hawks a series on his own, he’s going to need big games from the Hawks supporting cast.


2) Can the Hawks slow down the Bucks in transition?

When the Bucks get out and run — when Antetokounmpo gets rolling downhill — they are far more difficult to stop. The Greek Freak gets to the rim, and if he gets walled off, he has become more adept at finding shooters at the arc to make opponents pay for collapsing into the paint.

Atlanta has seen teams run against them a lot this postseason — Philadelphia wanted to play fast — but have done a respectable slowing them down, giving up a 123.8 defensive rating on transition plays in the postseason (ninth in the league; stats via Cleaning the Glass). They will need to do even better this series.

The Hawks have shined defensively in the halfcourt, including keeping teams from getting easy buckets at the rim. Teams are shooing just 60.8% against them in the restricted area this postseason (third-best rim defense in the league). It’s been the same in the rest of the paint. The Hawks must keep that up this series, if the Bucks get their easy baskets at the rim they will take this series running away.


3) The Hawks need to thrive from downtown

Despite playing their first two series against the defending Eastern Conference champion Heat and Kevin Durant's Nets, the Bucks still boast the best defensive rating among all postseason teams, giving up just 102.8 points per 100 possessions.

Scoring on the Bucks is a tall order, but if you can make 3s, you can do it. Milwaukee is famous for giving up clean looks from downtown, and when opponents take advantage of that, they can beat the Bucks. That's a concept that has proved true in these playoffs: The Bucks are 7-0 in the postseason when their opponents hit 12 or fewer 3-pointers; they are 1-3 when they make more.

The bad news is that the Hawks' offense has crossed that particular threshold just three times this postseason, and with Bogdan Bogdanovic's status uncertain, and with De'Andre Hunter on the shelf, Atlanta will need players such as Kevin Huerter, Danilo Gallinari and of course Young to provide this team with both high volume and reliable efficiency from downtown.

If those shooters can knock down tons of 3s, the Hawks can compete. If not, Milwaukee will go to the Finals.-via ESPN

MaxZaslofskyJr wrote:Nets fan since 1967 here now living in the Atlanta area for 18 years.

Just dropped by to say that If Brooklyn can't win that I hope the Hawks find a way.

Good Luck!!!

jayu70 wrote:

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