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Things to watch in the 2021-22 season as Trae Young's Hawks look to build on their conference finals run

Atlanta vastly exceeded expectations last season, but can they do it again?

What happened in Atlanta isn't supposed to happen. Stars aren't supposed to make a title push in their first playoff run. The basketball world expected the Hawks to earn a bottom-four seed and lose in the first round because that's what basketball history has conditioned it to believe. Trae Young nearly stole a championship with half of a roster.

So the question then becomes… now what? There's this temptation to write off Atlanta's run as a fluke. There's something to that. Team growth isn't linear. The Hawks might be better than they were a year ago, but still lose a round or two earlier because of circumstances or luck or any number of a billion other factors. That's probably the consensus… but do you really want to bet against Young after what you saw in the playoffs?

1. Trae vs. the world

Spoiler:

In an effort to curb blatant foul-hunting, the NBA is cracking down on contact initiated by offensive players. Young can live without the free throws. Dipping from nine per game to six or seven isn't going to do much to slow him down. No, the real impact is going to come on the plays that won't include fouls. How much more aggressively can defenders chase Young into the paint if they don't have to worry about his whistle-drawing shenanigans? Might they be more comfortable chasing him over screens? Will he have to move more off of the ball to create the space that might now be lost to him?

That's star-level basketball. Teams adjust, the star adjusts back, it's an endless dance and Young is far too crafty to rely solely on that one trick. Fans are going to be the winners here. Necessity is the mother of invention, and with his favorite trick presumably now off of the table, Young is going to have to come up with new ways to torture opponents.

2. A tale of two teams

Spoiler:

The Hawks started 14-20. Teams generally don't go below .500 for half of a season and then push for the title. But Lloyd Pierce's ouster cleared the way for Nate McMillan to turn the Hawks into the contenders they were destined to become. Atlanta went 27-11 down the stretch and won two playoff series without home-court advantage.

Is that going to sustain? Well, the short answer is no. That's a 58-win pace over a full season, and teams with one star tend not to win 58 games. But the McMillan Hawks were probably slightly closer to reality than Pierce's. But the weight of expectations doesn't answer to context. The Hawks made the Eastern Conference finals last year. They played at the level of a 58-win team for half of the season. Is that going to make a more modest 48-50-win season feel like a disappointment? Building on last season's success doesn't have to be as simple as winning more games or going further in the playoffs, but keeping players happy when they don't include those things is a good deal harder.

3. The bill comes due

Spoiler:

Kevin Huerter is extension-eligible right now. Reddish and Hunter will join him next offseason, and then Onyeka Okongwu after that. Danilo Gallinari is only partially guaranteed for the 2022-23 season. Delon Wright and Lou Williams are on expiring deals.

There's an obvious financial component to this. It's no secret that Atlanta looked into dealing Reddish this offseason to land a pick that could reset their rookie extension clock. The cost of keeping this roster together for the long haul is going to be astronomical unless a 2025 cap spike bails Atlanta out. Even then, the Hawks are probably looking at multiple years in the tax before that.

It's worth asking what their endgame is here as far as averting financially-induced roster attrition. Is Reddish still available? Will they play the restricted free agent game with Huerter in an offseason light on cap space? Or could the Hawks be looking into a consolidation trade? Paying Bradley Beal $45 million per year is cheaper than giving Hunter, Reddish and Huerter $60 million.

The short-term concerns are more grounded. There's the disease of more potential here with so many players fighting for contracts. Young is among the NBA's very best distributors, but he's got a whole lot of mouths to feed here, including the two players best positioned to take the Hawks from the fringes of the Finals to the top of the mountain.

4. Can these wings fly?

Spoiler:

Two-way wings are the rarest archetype in basketball, and Atlanta was wise to devote multiple lottery picks to getting them, but Hunter and Reddish struggled mightily in their debut seasons. Rookies tend to. The samples were small in Year 2 thanks to injuries, but they were much more promising. Hunter entered the NBA as a projected 3-and-D player, but last year he dabbled in individual shot creation. Reddish was up-and-down, but he answered the bell when the stakes were at their highest by leading the Hawks in scoring in their Game 6, season-ending loss to the Bucks.

These upside flashes are fine in Year 2. They aren't enough in Year 3. Atlanta got dangerously one-dimensional at times last season, even when they were winning. Clint Capela was the entire defense. Trae Young, at times, monopolized the offense. There's possible support for each of them on the roster, but only Reddish and Hunter stand out as players capable of easing both of their workloads. Versatile wings are worth their weight in gold.

But with so little tape from last season, it's just not easy to tell how much development these two still have in front of them. If Hunter's shooting reverts to its collegiate levels and he continues to grow as a shot-creator, he's going to be an All-Star. Reddish is still mastering the little things, and his effort needs to be more consistent. But the talent is there. Most teams would kill for just one young talent at forward like Hunter and Reddish. The Hawks have two, and they're their best chance at giving Young an internally developed co-star.

Jamaaliver wrote:

... Or could the Hawks be looking into a consolidation trade? Paying Bradley Beal $45 million per year is cheaper than giving Hunter, Reddish and Huerter $60 million

HMFFL wrote:Ir will be interesting to see how Trae adapts to the new foul baiting rule. I believe he will be fine but I hope to see him evolve more as a player. He's exceeded expectations to this point.
A healthy Hunter with Trae Young will also be good to see.

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

shakes0 wrote:

HMFFL wrote:Ir will be interesting to see how Trae adapts to the new foul baiting rule. I believe he will be fine but I hope to see him evolve more as a player. He's exceeded expectations to this point.
A healthy Hunter with Trae Young will also be good to see.

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

I don't see how the new rules can stop Trae from doing his favorite foul baiting move in the lane. There's no way the NBA can start saying it is illegal to come to a complete stop while dribbling. It's a natural move that has been in the game since dribbling existed.

The ones where he pump fakes on the 3pt line, gets a defender in the air and then jumps into him is a different story. If the jump is not a natural jump you would take to shoot a jump shot I doubt those will be called fouls anymore. But, those aren't nearly as big a part of Trae's game as the stop in the lane.

So overall I don't think this will affect Trae nearly as much as people think.

kg01 wrote:

shakes0 wrote:

HMFFL wrote:Ir will be interesting to see how Trae adapts to the new foul baiting rule. I believe he will be fine but I hope to see him evolve more as a player. He's exceeded expectations to this point.
A healthy Hunter with Trae Young will also be good to see.

Sent from my SM-N975U using RealGM mobile app

I don't see how the new rules can stop Trae from doing his favorite foul baiting move in the lane. There's no way the NBA can start saying it is illegal to come to a complete stop while dribbling. It's a natural move that has been in the game since dribbling existed.

The ones where he pump fakes on the 3pt line, gets a defender in the air and then jumps into him is a different story. If the jump is not a natural jump you would take to shoot a jump shot I doubt those will be called fouls anymore. But, those aren't nearly as big a part of Trae's game as the stop in the lane.

So overall I don't think this will affect Trae nearly as much as people think.

I've been saying all along those rules don't actually impact Trae as much as many fans think (wish/hope) they do.

I agree backing or jumping into a defender shouldn't be a foul, but objective observers can see that's not what Trae does. It most certainly IS what imitators like the Quickley kid do as they try to emulate what Trae has been doing. But that has nothing to do with the Hawks.

Also agree jumping unnaturally into a guy on your jumper should be a no-call but, as you said, that's not a thing Trae does as much as folks think.

The one that could definitely impact him is the play where he's dribbling, gets contact with the defender's chest/belly, then goes up looking for the foul. There's a strong argument that should be a no-call. It's tough though because guys can't just body you and impede movement.

So, as usual, refs will have a tough job to do. Do you want to muddy the game by allowing guys who can't move their feet defensively to just use their belly to direct guys in the same way hand-checkers used to impede movement?

There's a reason they did away with hand-checking, right? That's uglier than the parade to the free throw line they're allegedly trying to stop. But I guess we're supposed to ignore the fact that the reason the parade to the free throw line happens is because refs are too gutless to swallow the whistle in favor of stars. (Oh no he di'nt say that)

shakes0 wrote:

kg01 wrote:

shakes0 wrote:

I don't see how the new rules can stop Trae from doing his favorite foul baiting move in the lane. There's no way the NBA can start saying it is illegal to come to a complete stop while dribbling. It's a natural move that has been in the game since dribbling existed.

The ones where he pump fakes on the 3pt line, gets a defender in the air and then jumps into him is a different story. If the jump is not a natural jump you would take to shoot a jump shot I doubt those will be called fouls anymore. But, those aren't nearly as big a part of Trae's game as the stop in the lane.

So overall I don't think this will affect Trae nearly as much as people think.

I've been saying all along those rules don't actually impact Trae as much as many fans think (wish/hope) they do.

I agree backing or jumping into a defender shouldn't be a foul, but objective observers can see that's not what Trae does. It most certainly IS what imitators like the Quickley kid do as they try to emulate what Trae has been doing. But that has nothing to do with the Hawks.

Also agree jumping unnaturally into a guy on your jumper should be a no-call but, as you said, that's not a thing Trae does as much as folks think.

The one that could definitely impact him is the play where he's dribbling, gets contact with the defender's chest/belly, then goes up looking for the foul. There's a strong argument that should be a no-call. It's tough though because guys can't just body you and impede movement.

So, as usual, refs will have a tough job to do. Do you want to muddy the game by allowing guys who can't move their feet defensively to just use their belly to direct guys in the same way hand-checkers used to impede movement?

There's a reason they did away with hand-checking, right? That's uglier than the parade to the free throw line they're allegedly trying to stop. But I guess we're supposed to ignore the fact that the reason the parade to the free throw line happens is because refs are too gutless to swallow the whistle in favor of stars. (Oh no he di'nt say that)

yea I forgot about the move where he drives to his left, feels contact on his right side and pulls up for a runner and draws contact. Refs will probably crack down on that and give more no calls than before.

NBA Teams on the Brink of a Breakout

Atlanta Hawks

Trae Young is one of maybe a half-dozen players in the league who basically assures his team will score at elite levels when he's on the floor, regardless of the personnel around him. The Hawks finished ninth in offensive efficiency last year but scored at a rate, 118.2 points per 100 possessions, that was higher than the Brooklyn Nets' league-leading overall figure when Young was in the game.

The 2021-22 Hawks will field an offense at least as good as last year's, and there are plenty of good reasons to believe they'll bump their defensive rating, 18th this past season, up toward the top 10.

Clint Capela led the league in rebounding last season, and he's the anchor on that end. A healthier De'Andre Hunter, who looked like a blossoming three-and-D star before knee issues effectively ended his season in late January, will be a massive help. He's the shutdown one-on-one stopper and a key to any switching Atlanta might want to employ.

Onyeka Okongwu, whose recovery from shoulder surgery is progressing faster than expected, flashed seriously elite defensive potential in limited minutes as a rookie. If he's able to contribute in a rotation role, the Hawks' defensive ceiling lifts considerably. His rangy athleticism and quick feet could allow for five-position switching without compromising rim defense. Capela will still eat up most of the minutes, but Okongwu could be a grossly overqualified reserve weapon, strangling the life out of opposing second units.

Price in moderate, experience-driven growth from the Hawks' cadre of young guards and wings, plus John Collins' postseason embrace of a dirty-work role, and Atlanta could become one of the league's most balanced operations.

Sure to be dominant on offense as long as Young is healthy and poised to make progress on D, the Hawks could be a sneaky long-odds pick to win the East and return to the conference finals. Only this time, they won't arrive as plucky, happy-to-be-here overachievers. They'll be contenders.

That's the most consequential kind of breakout there is, the one that propels a team to a title shot.

Every team’s largest issue heading into next season

Atlanta Hawks



Burning Question: Can they maintain success when Trae Young is off the court?

Trae Young is one of the most valuable pieces in the NBA right now. Atlanta is a deep team, but he led the charge and willed that team into the Eastern Conference Finals. Offensively, he does not have a lot of holes in his game. He facilitates their offense, can shoot from anywhere on the court and can slither to the rim with ease. His passing is what makes this team so dangerous in my opinion. They love to run screen and rolls with their bigs and if they set a good screen, it frees Young up for an easy floater opportunity or a lob at the rim.

The Hawks can compete with any team in the league with him on the floor but without him, they take a dramatic dip. Their conference finals series with the Bucks was knotted at two apiece until Young tripped over a referee's foot, and the Bucks never looked back since.

It’s obvious when your main star is not on the floor, your team will be worse off but they have to find a way to maintain some level of production until Young gets back in the game. It’s tough to gain a lead when that star is on the court and then lose it by the time he gets back on. When that happens, the starters have to exert more energy to regain the lead and you would like that energy to be spent extending the lead.

The Hawks mirror the Denver Nuggets in many ways. They have a very talented point guard and center combo along with depth at other positions, but do they have enough to overtake the best teams in the conference? On any given night the Hawks can beat the best of teams, but in a seven games series, the concern turns to the consistent production of others on the floor. Not many teams can stop Young from facilitating offense and also getting his own buckets, but if the surrounding cast can strike fear in opponents as well, this is a dark horse team to return to the Eastern Conference Finals.