RealGM

NBA Draft Big Board: Jabari Smith Jr. Is the New No. 1



Headlining this first big board is Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr., who has come on strong over the past five weeks and earned his place atop the list ahead of Duke’s Paolo Banchero, who was previously my top prospect. That decision wasn’t really a reflection of Banchero’s play but was spurred on by how evident Smith’s immense potential is, particularly after watching him play in person over the weekend in Atlanta. It’s still entirely possible that Banchero winds up the top pick come June.

Consider these the first official player rankings of the season, which, per usual, is primarily based off my own player evaluations, both live and on film, which in many cases date back to their high school careers. The board is also strongly informed by ongoing conversations with executives and scouts around the NBA, as well as others around the industry.

1. Jabari Smith Jr., F, Auburn | Freshman

Height: 6' 10" | Weight: 210 | Age: 18

Spoiler:

There’s no clear consensus this early in the process, but most around the NBA agree that Smith will have a strong case as the top pick by the end of the season. He arguably boasts the highest upside of anyone in this draft and has already made quite an impression: He’s an incredibly natural shooter with legit size, he has terrific scoring instincts and he has few bad habits at an early stage of his development. He is a very focused player for his age and doesn’t turn 19 until May.

His lanky frame offers plenty of room to put on muscle. He also projects as a good positional defender. As he continues to clean up his footwork and add to his scoring repertoire, Smith could be a near-impossible cover by the time he hits his prime years. There simply aren’t many players with his combination of jump shooting, body type and movement skills. And his mature approach to the game has many executives believing he’ll make the most of his considerable ability. Banchero and Smith are both terrific prospects, and they’re close in the minds of many, but if I had to make the pick today, Smith would be the guy.

2. Paolo Banchero, F, Duke | Freshman

Height: 6' 10" | Weight: 250 | Age: 19

Spoiler:

Banchero has built a strong case as a potential No. 1 selection, showcasing his wide array of offensive abilities during the season’s first month. He’s a powerful athlete with an advanced feel for scoring and high-level ball skills for a player his size, let alone his age. He is making progress as a jump shooter and looks like someone who can efficiently anchor an NBA offense, particularly if his playmaking skills blossom and the shot falls more consistently.

Banchero can play all over the floor on offense but will primarily have to defend bigger forwards. He isn’t a rim protector by trade, which likely caps his defensive value in the long run. He’s not a super athlete either, but he’s strong and extremely coordinated. In an offensive-minded league that’s skewing toward taller, more skilled lineups as the norm, teams view Banchero as a highly reliable prospect who comes with minimal risk and starry scoring upside as he matures.

3. Chet Holmgren, F, Gonzaga | Freshman

Height: 7' 0" | Weight: 195 | Age: 19

Spoiler:

Holmgren is the most unique prospect in this draft class, as a talented shot blocker with guard-like skills wrapped up in a 7-foot package. There aren’t many bigs who can protect the basket, handle the ball, make plays in a pinch and space the floor—and Holmgren does all of those things.

There are salient concerns around the NBA as to exactly what degree all of his strengths will translate, due to the fact Holmgren is somewhat slow-footed, lacks physical strength and has struggled in key opportunities against Duke and Alabama. Most scouts agree he projects better as an oversize forward than at center, which should better play to his abilities. While he’s clearly behind Smith and Banchero for many league executives, Holmgren’s upside as a rim protector with a variety of offensive skills should help solidify him as one of the first players off the board.

5. Johnny Davis, SG, Wisconsin | Sophomore

Height: 6' 5" | Weight: 195 | Age: 19

Spoiler:

Davis has arguably raised his profile more than any college prospect, going from NBA curiosity to likely lottery pick in short order. He’s a polished scorer, physical defender and quality run-jump athlete with an appealing competitive streak. It appears Davis’s confidence has grown in concert with his role, and he’s been remarkably consistent in putting up numbers game to game—though he does take a lot of tough shots, which has an impact on his individual efficiency.

Teams will want to see him sustain this level of play, but right now there’s not much reason to believe he won’t keep it up, as he’s always been reputed as a terrific shooter and added to his game skill-wise. Davis should be taken seriously as one of the draft’s top guard prospects and has earned himself quite a bit of credibility around the league.

7. Keegan Murray, F, Iowa | Sophomore

Height: 6' 8" | Weight: 215 | Age: 21

Spoiler:

Murray has delivered on the promise he showed last season and emerged as one of the top players in college basketball, proving he can handle a larger offensive workload and impact winning in a range of ways. His long frame and instincts make him a highly versatile defender, and he’s adept at finding ways to contribute positively in the flow of the game.

He’s an older prospect, but Murray looks like a ready-made NBA contributor considering his athletic tools and basketball IQ. He still has a ways to go as a scorer—his jumper is a bit inconsistent and creating his own shot doesn’t come naturally—but he makes good decisions and should add positive value on that end. Forwards with his size, feel and skill are always in demand, and his production has put him in the lottery conversation.

9. Patrick Baldwin Jr., F, UW-Milwaukee | Freshman

Height: 6' 9" | Weight: 220 | Age: 19

Spoiler:

Baldwin has already become one of the draft’s most polarizing prospects, as an elite high school recruit and tall perimeter shooter marooned on a 2–8 Horizon League team. His lack of consistent production has been a concern for NBA teams, but he’s playing in a context where he hardly ever gets easy looks, due partially to opponents keying on him but also because his guards don’t really share the ball.

Choosing to play for his father at Milwaukee certainly hasn’t helped Baldwin’s draft stock, but it’s unfair to blame the player for how suboptimal his circumstances have become. Baldwin is still highly skilled as a handler and passer, has a large frame and is a high-level jump shooter, though not an explosive athlete or physical defender. He has to perform against lesser competition the rest of the season to stabilize his draft range. But he still has a clear pathway to being a useful NBA role player, at minimum.

10. Trevor Keels, G, Duke | Freshman

Height: 6' 4" | Weight: 220 | Age: 18

Spoiler:

After breaking out in the season opener against Kentucky, Keels has gone cold over the past few weeks, struggling to hit jumpers and score the ball efficiently. To be fair, he is playing an outsized role for Duke and logging a ton of minutes, and he’s been able to make plays for teammates and has shown a better all-around game than many expected.

He has a huge frame for a combo guard but may need to slim down a bit more to maximize his ability in the long run, as well as improve his handle. Keels is a better jump shooter than he’s shown and has a good platform to potentially land in the lottery, particularly if his individual play improves, but it’s certainly not a foregone conclusion he’s drafted this high. The fact he’s one of the youngest prospects in the draft helps separate him a bit from some of the other guards in this range.

11. Bennedict Mathurin, SG, Arizona | Sophomore

Height: 6' 6" | Weight: 210 | Age: 19

Spoiler:

Mathurin has hit his stride as Arizona’s go-to scorer and had several impressive performances to start the year, building on his promising freshman season. He’s an explosive leaper and a quality transition scorer and spot-up threat, and he has proven he can score reliably and rebound. Mathurin isn’t a naturally creative passer, nor the most consistent defender and his game can be a tad one-dimensional at times. But he has clearly improved on the whole and continues to look the part as a potential lottery pick. Arizona’s team success ought to boost his case a bit, as Mathurin is in a highly favorable situation on a team that thrives playing up-tempo.

14. Jalen Duren, C, Memphis | Freshman

Height: 6' 11" | Weight: 250 | Age: 18

Spoiler:

Duren has some of the best physical tools in the draft, with a chiseled frame, long arms and a strong base that should make him a quality rebounder and play-finisher. But scouts largely seem to be down on him in the early going, noting his poor displays of feel and an inconsistent motor that lead to him being less productive than he should.

It’s fair to note that Duren should be a high school senior right now and is dealing with a learning curve. But he is not supremely skilled and hasn’t shown signs of shooting the ball well, creating an existential question of what he’s really worth in the NBA, as is the case for most centers who fit those criteria. Duren should figure it out, but he’s smaller than his listed 6' 11​​" and isn’t a great leaper in tight spaces, which also casts some aspersions on what exactly will translate. He is still a first-round talent but not one that every team will be excited about.

17. Wendell Moore, F, Duke | Junior

Height: 6' 5" | Weight: 215 | Age: 20

Spoiler:

Moore has rejuvenated his standing as a prospect with consistently strong performances and leadership as the elder statesman on a prospect-laden Duke team. After struggling for most of his first two college seasons, Moore’s confidence and all-around game have taken off, and he projects as a useful complementary player in the long run. He is a capable ballhandler and terrific passer, has made strides as a perimeter shooter and has the length and strength to match up defensively with a wide range of opponents. While he’s not especially tall for a wing, Moore’s traits fit well into a positionless philosophy, and his floor as a useful, team-first contributor could keep him climbing up the ladder if he keeps playing this well.

19. Nikola Jović, F, Mega Basket (Serbia)

Height: 6' 10" | Weight: 210 | Age: 18

Spoiler:

Jović is in the midst of a productive year in Serbia and has plenty to offer teams as a huge forward with guard-like perimeter skills. He is an awesome passer and has looked like an improved shooter in the early part of the season, which has garnered him added buzz among scouts. Jović is not especially athletic but has a knack for creating shots, and there’s a lot to like about his offensive game. The biggest issue for him will come on the defensive end, where he is unlikely to make a serious impact and isn’t well suited to guard bigs or wings in the NBA. Still just 18 years old, Jović may see his stock benefit from what’s been a somewhat underwhelming college class.

20. MarJon Beauchamp, G/F, G League Ignite

Height: 6' 6" | Weight: 200 | Age: 21

Spoiler:

Among this season’s pleasant surprises has been Beauchamp’s generally steady play with the Ignite, where he’s revived his stock as a prospect after a wayward journey out of high school. He is a talented scorer with a good frame for a wing and has been productive in other facets without dominating the ball or playing too selfishly. His defense has also been better than expected. After dominating in community college last year, Beauchamp has been effective against pretty good competition in the G League and should receive proper credit from execs for what he’s done so far. He’s pretty firmly in the first-round picture right now.

34. Ochai Agbaji, SG, Kansas | Senior

Height: 6' 5" | Weight: 215 | Age: 21

Spoiler:

After several seasons on the fringes of the draft, Agbaji looks ready to make the jump, beginning his senior year with a new level of confidence and looking like an improved three-point shooter. While not a flashy player or especially tall for a wing, Agbaji should be able to fill a complementary role in the NBA by continuing to knock down shots and playing reliable defense. He is a solid athlete and looks much more comfortable in all facets this season. It won’t be surprising to see him earn some first-round consideration if he keeps this up.

35. E.J. Liddell, F, Ohio State | Junior

Height: 6' 7" | Weight: 240 | Age: 20

Spoiler:

Liddell has worked himself into excellent shape, which has made him noticeably more agile and helped his case as an undersized stretch four. He’s a well-rounded player with good length and smarts and an improved shooter. He’ll need to continue expanding his face-up game, but he’s been among the top players in the country and added value on both ends. If Liddell can help defensively on bigger wings and smaller bigs while knocking down jumpers and embracing the dirty work, there should be a place for him in the league. He impacts winning in a range of ways in college and has a shot at a long-term NBA role.

38. Tristan Vukčević, C, Real Madrid (Serbia)

Height: 7' 0" | Weight: 230 | Age: 18

Spoiler:

Vukčević hasn’t earned consistent rotation minutes for Madrid yet, but he’s an intriguing stretch-five prospect with terrific size and skill potential. He isn’t a bad athlete and has a lot of room to add strength to his huge frame. Madrid has one of the top player development programs in the world, and Vukčević has been a beneficiary—while the center position has been devalued a bit in the NBA, he has the type of skill-oriented game that could potentially play up. Scouts will want to see more production in the opportunities he does get, but he’s one of the more intriguing European prospects in the long run.

Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga, PF/C, Freshman)



The No. 1 discussion right now includes three bigs, with Auburn's Jabari Smith gaining steam on preseason favorites Chet Holmgren and Paolo Banchero. We're still giving Holmren the edge, however, as Detroit and others may see too much upside and two-way impact tied to his scoring versatility and defensive tools.

He's shooting a ridiculous 78.6 percent on two-point attempts with nine three-point makes. Aside from his special finishing tools and promising shooting range, Holmgren also adds value as a fast-break initiator and passer.

In only 253 minutes, Holmgren already has an incredible 38 blocks, while Banchero and Smith have 10 blocks combined. The Gonzaga freshman ranks second nationwide in box plus-minus.

Paolo Banchero (Duke, PF, Freshman)



While Jabari Smith's draft case has gotten stronger by the week, NBA teams will be drawn to Paolo Banchero's shot creation for their frontcourt.

Banchero doesn't have Smith's shooting stroke, but he's the bigger threat to get his own shot or bucket in the half court. Aside from his isolation game (83rd percentile), he's also generated at least 20 points off post-ups, spot-ups, cuts and transition.

Few players of this size offer the same level of scoring versatility or offensive upside as Banchero. Bigs in the 6'10", 250-pound range don't usually self-create and shoot off the dribble (41.7 percent) like the Duke freshman, who has also made nine threes in eight games and is shooting 83.8 percent from the line.

Wendell Moore Jr. (Duke, SG/SF, Junior)



There was always pro potential in Wendell Moore Jr. Once projected No. 16 on our 2020 preseason mock draft before his freshman season, he drifted away from the draft conversation after two underwhelming seasons.

Moore is back now, looking completely revamped as a point-wing, Duke's lead initiator and a 38.6 percent three-point shooter. He also won't turn 21 until after the draft, making him the same age as many college sophomores.

Since his freshman year, Moore has more than doubled his assist rate (28.4 percent) to become Duke's most effective facilitator. He's improved both his ball-handling skill and his passing IQ. He's also shooting an outstanding 73.3 percent at the rim, showing off strength for contact and body-controlled finishes that appear translatable to an NBA floor.

Moore hit all four of his threes Thursday against Appalachian State, which marked the sixth time in Duke's first 10 games that he made at least two. Shooting is his obvious swing skill.

But if he can continue making outside shots and convince scouts that his shot will be a threat, Moore will possess enough versatility for NBA teams to picture an easy fit.

Wendell Moore Jr. (Duke, SF, Junior)

It took until Moore's third season to look comfortable, but he's still the age (20) of most sophomores, and he's developed coveted versatility for a wing. Averaging 5.6 assists, he's become Duke's most effective facilitator with 6'5", 216-pound size for slashing, finishing (72.0 percent at rim) and defending (2.0 steals per game). His shooting must keep improving, but making eight of his first 19 pull-ups feels like a promising sign.

E.J. Liddell (Ohio State, PF, Junior)



E.J. Liddell has made notable strides in morphing into more of a modern big from an old-school one.

Post scoring (91st percentile) is still his bread-and-butter, but after improving his body and perimeter skill, he's become a legitimate spot-up (94th percentile) threat and fastbreak weapon. He's shooting 42.9 percent off the catch and 8-of-17 shooting off the dribble with 23 transition points in 10 games. Last season, he made six pull-ups and recorded 27 transition points all season.

The difference in Liddell's defensive playmaking may still be the most staggering. The 6'7" "big man" has more than doubled his block rate to 10.5 percent (3.0 per game). It may help NBA teams picture a 240-pound small-ball 5 who can create for himself around the block and eventually stretch the floor if his shooting continues to improve (35.3 percent 3PT).

Averaging 20.6 points on 56.0 percent from the floor, Liddell has been dominant to start his junior season. Between his impact, how advanced he is in the post, signs of a more mobile, confident face-up player and the wild defensive numbers, scouts don't sound as worried about whether he's fit in today's NBA.

Johnny Davis (Wisconsin, SG, Sophomore)



Davis has transformed from an off-ball role player to a shot-creating lead scorer. And at 6'5" with a strong frame and explosion driving through lanes, scouts see a pro now that his ball skills and shot-making match his NBA physical/defensive tools.

Davis' combination of burst and pull-up shooting have turned him into one of the nation's top ball-screen weapons (91st percentile). He's making 44.7 percent of his pull-ups with 21 makes (nine games), some of which are coming off more advanced, self-creation moves out of isolation.

Averaging 22.6 points over Wisconsin's last seven games, Davis suddenly appears to possess translatable three-level scoring ability, as long as his three-ball (37.8 percent on 4.1 attempts per game) continues to show promise.

Johnny Davis (Wisconsin, SG, Sophomore)



Unless Johnny Davis hits a wall that makes his hot start appear fluky, he appears headed toward the 2022 lottery based on his early production, improved skill level and NBA tools.

Davis has scored at least 20 points in six of Wisconsin's last seven games. He has flashed explosiveness driving right and left, and he's emerged as one of the nation's most prolific pull-up shooters, having already hit 21 jumpers off the dribble at a 44.7 percent clip.

Grading in the 91st percentile as a pick-and-roll handler, he's become dramatically sharper in creation situations. And at 6'5" with a strong build, defensive IQ and competitive edge, NBA teams could think about Davis as an interchangeable, two-way wing.

Jabari Smith (Auburn, PF, Freshman)



No. 3 overall is starting to look like the lowest Jabari Smith will go. Scouts are beginning to wonder if he's a legitimate No. 1 overall candidate after his fifth 20-point game of the season on Saturday.

The 6'10" forward is now shooting 44.7 percent on 5.2 three-point attempts per game and 84.6 percent from the charity stripe. Even as a 19-year-old NBA rookie, he'd give any NBA frontcourt a sure-thing shooter given how convincing and translatable his range and touch appear.

But flashes of grab-and-go ball-handling and shot-making versatility suggest Smith offers far more creation potential and scoring upside. An 18.0 assist percentage and 3.7 steal rate are just extra NBA indicators.

Elite shooting, strong passing IQ and defensive mobility help paint Smith as an easy NBA fit.

Jabari Smith Gives 2022 NBA Draft Another Potential Star



NBA scouts initially viewed Duke's Paolo Banchero and Gonzaga's Chet Holmgren as the true prizes of the 2022 NBA draft. They're now on the verge of adding Auburn's Jabari Smith to the headliner card.

The early tape includes some staggering highlights for an 18-year-old who's roughly six months younger than Banchero and a year younger than Holmgren.

"I knew he was good, but not this good," has been a common sentiment echoed by scouts.

They hadn't seen much of Smith since the 2019 U16 Americas Championship, when he was 6'9", 190 pounds. Now 6'10", 220 pounds with even more of a jumbo-wing skill set, his evolution and modernized offensive package have scouts wondering how high they should move him up the board.

Unique Initiator Potential

Spoiler:

Smith's possessions that have generated the most stunned reactions have come in transition. He seemingly can't wait to grab a defensive board and showcase his handle and scoring ability in the open floor. Assuming his 13.3 rebounds per 40 minutes aren't fluky, he should continue to have grab-and-go opportunities to initiate the offense before defenses can set.

At his size, he demonstrates uncommon fluidity navigating through traffic and gathering into a finish on the move.

Not many bigs shoot off the dribble in general, but it's even more unusual to see one pull up in transition. He has already hit two of them with obvious confidence that makes you think it's a skill he's worked on and earned a green light to attempt.

Self-Creation, Shot-making

Spoiler:

Shooting has always been a key selling point for Smith, who shot 7-of-19 from three for USA in 2019 and over 38 percent during each of his final two seasons at Sandy Creek. His NBA offensive archetype could mirror Jaren Jackson Jr.'s. The shooting looks real based on his 7-of-15 start from deep and 7.7 attempts per 40 minutes.

But it's the shot-making versatility that separates him even further from other bigs. We've already seen threes off the dribble, pick-and-pops and contested catch-and-shoots. Another level of upside kicks in if he continues to build on the flashes of self-creation into dribble jumpers.

Without hesitating after the catch, Smith took two dribbles forward, one crossover backward and rose up for a fallaway 18-footer. Aside from the fact that he hit the shot, it was the decisiveness and sharp execution of self-creation that stood out most.

While he has proved he can initiate offense in the open floor, step-backs like these suggest he offers go-to option scoring potential in the half court. He should have plenty of opportunities this season to continue showing off and experimenting with self-creation around the perimeter, particularly since 245-pound Kessler Walker will be occupying the paint all season for Auburn's offense.

As much as he likes his jumper, he's also shown he can put the ball down and attack in straight lines. Again, the zero-hesitation pops on his moves, as he unleashes a quick first step and coordination finishing off one foot.

Defensive Timing

Spoiler:

Though Smith doesn't have the longest wingspan (reportedly in the 6'11" to 7'0" range) or the quickest feet, his timing has translated to defensive playmaking.

Seven steals indicate fast, active hands and anticipation for his man's dribbles. As a shot-blocker, he's shown off his timing by swatting a step-back three-pointer and a fastbreak attempt at the rim while backpedaling. He only has four fouls in 78 minutes.

He may possess enough defensive feel to maximize the effectiveness of his physical tools. Scouts will be eyeing his lateral mobility guarding wings and 4s. Looking competent sliding his feet in space could help eliminate any perceived risk in drafting Smith top two or three.

Areas to Improve

Spoiler:

He can become too ambitious trying to pull off an NBA move, resulting in low-percentage shots. He's rushed some jumpers and forced tough fallaways. He has missed nine of his first 15 two-point attempts, which may create some concern when evaluating a big if he continues to rely on tough looks and struggles to earn easy baskets.

And while his handle looks good in the open floor, it's not as tight when pressured. He's lost the ball a few times trying to make a move in one-on-one situations.

Defensively, he's looked vulnerable on certain possessions attempting to contain quicker ball-handlers. His shot-blocking numbers have never been overwhelming, and coaches are most likely to picture him at the 4 next to a true rim protector. Working on his footwork to match up with forwards figures to be a priority over the next few seasons.

John Hollinger wrote:Upperclass NBA draft prospects who’ve caught my eye

Jaden Ivey, sophomore SG, Purdue



Regarded as a potential lottery pick entering the season, Ivey likely moved himself deep into the top ten on many draft boards with his athletic playmaking and seemingly improved shooting. His per-100-possession triple crown stats are off the charts through five games: 31.0 points, 14.3 rebounds and 9.1 assists.

Moreover, he’s doing that on a Purdue team that wants to pound the ball into the post rather than play through its guards (the Boilermakers’ center, sophomore Zach Edey, is basically the Yao Ming of the Big Ten). They don’t spend much energy featuring his skillset on the perimeter, especially in the halfcourt.

And then there’s just the raw eye test. NBA scouts have to be salivating over putting this kind of first-step quickness into an NBA spread pick-and-roll scheme.

There are still some warts there to chew over as teams make their evaluations. For starters, teams will want to see a bigger sample of shooting success. He’s showing more willingness to launch from deep off the dribble, but overall is 7-of-22 this season and 26.9 percent for his college career. Also, his push shot requires space to launch, and at 6-foot-4 he’s not exactly towering over other guards.

Finally, if we’re looking at him inside the top ten, the bar is higher for what scouts need to see. Can he get downhill going left? Is his handle tight enough to play point guard full-time? Can he show more verve fighting through screens and physicality with his thin frame? All those are questions scouts will be doubling back on as the Boilers move into Big Ten conference play.

Can Jaden Ivey be the first guard drafted?

Suffice it to say that not every widely predicted prospect breakout comes true—nevertheless, Jaden Ivey appears to have made the leap we hoped for. His strong finish to his freshman year led into a big showing at the FIBA U19 World Championships over the summer, and through his first six games, the question appears to be not whether he lands in the lottery, but how high he can rise. Ivey has started to prove he can play a pass-first style and led Purdue to an undefeated start, including last week’s signature neutral-site wins against North Carolina and Villanova.

There’s always been a lot to like with Ivey: He’s a stellar defender and great all-around athlete who plays a high-energy style and covers a ton of ground both operating and guarding in space. But as he continues to prove he can function as a lead playmaker, the perception surrounding his upside has gone from high-level glue guy to potentially more than that. He shoots a low-release push shot that gives scouts pause but has made 37% of his threes so far this season, owns a 60.4% true shooting percentage and has been efficient on the whole. I’ve gathered some mixed optimism amongst front-office personnel surrounding the jumper, but simply making enough threes to keep people honest elevates Ivey’s ceiling substantially. There’s not usually a ton of risk with high-motor, athletic guards with size who play both ends, but making shots consistently tends to be the difference between that type of player being a legitimate starter versus a high-end reserve.

Considering his tools, makeup and dynamic athleticism, Ivey’s future may fall somewhere along the lines of a Jalen Suggs– or Marcus Smart–type of all-around useful support guard. For what it’s worth, those guys went No. 5 and No. 6 in their respective drafts. While scouts will want to see him keep proving it and will watch his shooting splits carefully, it’s certainly not out of the question Ivey could wind up the first guard drafted in June. Purdue draws another pair of good tests this week with home games against Florida State (the most athletic opponent it's faced so far) and Iowa in the conference opener. With the Boilermakers looking like favorites to win the Big Ten and Ivey’s stock soaring, NBA teams will closely monitor how he handles the rising pressure moving forward.

Breakout upperclassmen to watch as the season heats up

Ochai Agbaji | 6-foot-5 wing | Kansas | 21 years old | Senior

Key numbers: 22.4 points, 4.1 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 57.5/49.1/72.4 shooting line

Spoiler:

The game has clearly slowed down for Agbaji. He’s more confident and comfortable. The shooting was already there, as he made 38 percent of his 3s last year on nearly seven attempts per game. In a hot start to this season, Agbaji is averaging 22 points per game while shooting 45 percent from 3, though that probably won’t keep up (although I don’t think 40 percent over the rest of his season is out of the question). On top of that, he’s always been an elite transition player due to his high-level athleticism and leaping ability, as well as a terrific cutter for whom Kansas consistently runs interesting backdoor sets under Bill Self. All of that is still there. The leap, however, has occurred in his ballhandling and with the speed of the game. Agbaji, especially out in the semi-break, is making plays with ease with the ball in his hands. There is no panic, and his footwork is stronger. He’s a professional playing college basketball now. Throw in that he’s a good defender on the wing with the quickness and strength to be able to deal with a variety of different player types, and it’s kind of an easy fit for a modern NBA role. The only thing Agbaji still isn’t bringing is passing.

He’s a clear first-rounder on my board right now. I see him as a top-20 guy. Every team needs shooters who can defend. As long as the decision-making continues to hold up, it’s hard to see Agbaji failing to at least become a good rotation wing at the next level.

Wendell Moore Jr. | 6-foot-5 wing | Duke | 20 years old | Junior

Key numbers: 17.4 points, 5.9 rebounds, 5.1 assists, 1.6 steals, 58.3/40.0/70.6 shooting line

Spoiler:

Wendell Moore has finally seized on the potential that evaluators thought he had back in 2019, when he was considered a potential one-and-done prospect, and become the kind of player NBA teams are interested in. I’ve spoken to scouts for multiple teams who have a mid-to-late first-round grade on Moore right now. He’s essentially been the do-it-all glue for the Blue Devils. Moore has been a pretty capable scorer this season, averaging 17 points per game.

Overall, Moore is putting up an awesome stat line of 17.4 points, 5.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists. Typically, this type of all-around play from a wing-sized player with a nearly 7-foot wingspan is something I’d be pretty in on, rating Moore as a first-rounder myself. The Duke junior processes the game well now and seems to really have a great sense of how to play at every critical moment. There are few guys who have helped themselves as much as he has — especially given the disappointment of his sophomore season.

Right now, though, I see Moore as more of a top-40 type as opposed to a top-25 type. Why? I’m a bit less sold on his combination of athleticism and shooting.

If Moore does show some upside as a shooter throughout the rest of the year, I’ll be much more inclined to see him in the way the aforementioned NBA scouts I’ve talked to do. His already-apparent passing and defense combination would allow him to carve out a real rotational role if he can be an average shooter. But Moore’s shooting truly is his swing skill. Without it, he’s a tough sell as a role-playing wing. With it, he’s the kind of wing a lot of teams are looking for due to the well-rounded nature of the rest of his game. If you believe in him becoming a league-average 3-point shooter, I get the first-round grade on Moore. I’m just not quite there yet.

2022 NBA Draft Big Board: Who Are the Top 50 Prospects Entering the New Year

1. Chet Holmgren (Gonzaga, PF/C, Freshman)
2. Paolo Banchero (Duke, PF, Freshman)
3. Jabari Smith (Auburn, PF, Freshman)
4. Jaden Ivey (Purdue, SG, Sophomore)
5. Kendall Brown (Baylor, SF, Freshman)
6. TyTy Washington Jr. (Kentucky, PG/SG, Freshman)
7. Bennedict Mathurin (Arizona, SG, Sophomore)
8. Patrick Baldwin Jr. (Milwaukee, SF/PF, Freshman)
9. AJ Griffin (Duke, SF/PF, Freshman)
10. Johnny Davis (Wisconsin, SG, Sophomore)
11. Jean Montero (G League Ignite, PG, 2003)
12. Jalen Duren (Memphis, C, Freshman)
13. Keegan Murray (Iowa, PF, Sophomore)
14. Kennedy Chandler (Tennessee, PG, Freshman)

Johnny Davis (Wisconsin, SG, Sophomore)



Averaging 20.9 points per game, Johnny Davis has blown up into a lottery prospect by improving his self-creation skills and scoring off the dribble.

Through nine games, he's made 21 pull-ups at a 44.7 percent clip. He's generating offense from three levels, shooting 50.0 percent in the mid-range and 37.8 percent from three.

In terms of projecting to the NBA, it would feel more comforting if he took more than 4.9 three-pointers per 40 minutes. But he's elevated his shot-making (14 threes) while converting 82.6 percent of his free throws. Plus, his strong physical tools, quickness and explosion suggest the 6'5" guard's effectiveness as a driver and defender can carry over.

Geaux_Hawks wrote:I'm probably the only one down for a blockbuster trade up in the draft for a top 2 pick, but this a strong year for top big men. Banchero, Holmgren, and Smith all have big time ability as bigs, and have a lot of what we lack in terms of go-to offense in the frontcourt...