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Ochai Agbaji | Kansas | Wing

A senior who took a major leap to become a potential lottery pick. He can guard multiple positions and drain 3s, but has been a streaky shooter throughout his career.

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Height: 6'5"
Weight: 214
Age: 22
Year: Senior

Shades Of: Jae Crowder

PLUSES

• Agbaji attended the 2021 NBA combine before returning to college to refine his offensive game, but he was already on the draft radar because of his defense. He has a strong 215-pound frame and long arms, giving him versatility on the positional spectrum. He’s even strong enough to battle in the post against bigs.
• Made major improvements as a shooter his senior year. He’s making 41.1 percent of his 3s and is at his best in transition, making 7 of 14 shots off the dribble. He is dynamic with crossovers, creating space for his shot.
• Dangerous when attacking against a rotating defense as a secondary ball handler. He is so strong with the ball and respectable enough of a dribbler to muscle his way into the paint.
• Aware off-ball cutter with the leaping ability to throw down lobs.

MINUSES

• Still an inconsistent shooter. He made 45.6 percent of his 3s over his first 22 games of this season but only 31 percent over his past eight leading into the conference tournament. In the half court, he is shooting only 27.1 percent on pull-up 3s and 29.4 percent on pull-up 2s.
• Lacks a degree of shiftiness off the dribble, which hurts him when finishing around the basket. He’s sometimes contact-averse.
• When his offensive role was less demanding, he hustled harder on defense. But the energy isn’t there as often anymore.

19.8 PPG 3PT: 41% FT%: 76.7%

Atlanta Hawks: Ochai Agbaji, Kansas

Position: G

Height and weight: 6-foot-5, 215 lbs.

Age: 21, Senior

It's rare to see a senior in the lottery these days, but Agbaji has shown his improvement is worthy of NBA consideration. He's a scoring threat from all three levels of the floor, starting with his ability as a knockdown shooter from 3-point range. His ball handling has developed and he's gotten more comfortable attacking off the dribble, pairing well with his strong frame and steady body control when he gets to the basket. His age could be seen as a negative, but Agbaji should be ready to enter an NBA rotation immediately as a 3-and-D option.

A Hot Start from Ochai Agbaji Sets the Tone Early

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Kansas led wire-to-wire in an 81-65 victory over Villanova in the first game of the day. Center David McCormack (25 points, 10-of-12 shooting) had arguably his best game of the season, and All-American Ochai Agbaji (21 points, 6-of-7 3PT) had his best game of the tournament.

The 6'5" senior averaged 18.9 points per game with an impressive 18 20-point performance in 33 games heading into March Madness. However, he had a lackluster showing through his first four games of this year's NCAA tournament, averaging 12.3 points and posting a season-low five points against Providence in the Sweet Sixteen.

He came out firing against Villanova, drilling four early three-pointers to help propel the Jayhawks to a 19-8 lead with 11:48 to play in the first half. He hit two more threes before his first miss of the night, finishing with 21 points on an extremely efficient 6-of-8 shooting night.

While he had his struggles to start the tournament, Agbaji once again proved on Saturday that he's the type of player who can lead his team to victory.

A senior who took a major leap

2022 NBA mock draft

16. Atlanta Hawks

Ochai Agbaji | Kansas | 6-6 | SF | Age: 21.9



Agbaji was named the NCAA tournament's Most Outstanding Player, largely on the back of two phenomenal performances in the Elite Eight and Final Four in which he scored 39 points on an efficient 14-for-20 shooting from the floor with excellent one-on-one defense.

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His contributions were more muted in the four other tournament contests, scoring 43 points on 16-for-45 shooting, demonstrating his limitations as a ball handler and passer while having too many lapses with his off-ball awareness and rotations, showing his just-average feel for the game.

Agbaji looks like a plug-and-play 3-and-D NBA caliber wing with his strong 215-pound frame, 6-10 wingspan, 41% 3-point shooting, high-intensity level and ability to score in transition on straight line-drives, especially coming off screens. It was important for him to get back on track from beyond the arc as the tournament progressed as he was mired in a deep slump from the perimeter, hitting 26% for 3 in the 10 games prior to the Elite Eight. When Agbaji gets into rhythm and is playing with confidence, he looks like one of the most dynamic shot-makers in college basketball, rising up smoothly pulling up in transition, ducking behind handoffs and sprinting off pin downs or staggers with outstanding footwork.

The senior won the last 11 games of his college career, was named a First-Team All-American, and likely secured a spot for his jersey to hang in the rafters of Allen Fieldhouse in the process. That should also translate to a spot in the green room on draft night and potentially hearing his name called in the lottery by NBA commissioner Adam Silver.

Hawks' 2022 Draft Needs

The Hawks will settle in the middle of the first round, just outside the lottery, with the No. 16 overall pick.

The Hawks are the second-best three-point shooting team in the league, which is obviously a big reason why their offense is so successful.

Given their need to improve on the defensive end, they may be best-suited drafting a player who can shoot threes and help the team raise its defensive profile.

Recommended Draft Pick:

Kansas G Ochai Agbaji

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Ochai Agbaji steadily improved his three-point shooting during his four years with the Kansas Jayhawks, topping out at 40.9 percent during his senior year. He notably went 6-of-7 from three in an 81-65 win over Villanova in the Final Four.

The 6'5" guard has received much praise for his defensive efforts. NBADraft.net noted he "has experience defending the other team's best wing and is effective switching all over the perimeter, with promising on-ball defensive skills."

Kyle Irving of Sporting News also wrote that "he's looking like one of the best 3-and-D prospects this year's draft class has to offer" thanks to his improvement shooting from the outside.

With Delon Wright and Lou Williams headed for free agency, Agbaji could provide much-needed guard depth.

Ochai Agbaji (Kansas, SG/SF, Senior)

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Signatures: Bounce, shooting, defense

Archetype/projected role: Three-and-D

A national champion and improved shooter each year at Kansas, Ochai Agbaji has reached a level where scouts now see an NBA three-and-D wing.

He finished at 40.9 percent from deep and joined Mikal Bridges as the only NCAA players on record with 100 threes and 35 dunks in a season.

While shooting will have to be Agbaji's offensive moneymaker, he still excels at finding ways to score by tapping into athleticism for cutting, offensive rebounding and slashing.

Creating offense remains a challenge (1-of-8 isolation), and a career 9.4 assist percentage tells teams not to bank on Agbaji for ball-screen offense or playmaking. He also remains limited as a scorer off the dribble, having shot just 26.7 percent on pull-ups and an ugly 4-of-23 on runners.

However, he has a translatable, simple package of skills for a defined role. The 22-year-old senior figures to jump right into an NBA rotation by playing to his strengths as a catch-and-shoot weapon, finisher (71.3 percent) and defender.

Vecenie’s 2022 NBA Draft Big Board 2.0

11. Ochai Agbaji | Kansas| Wing | 6'5" | Senior



This is probably the highest you’ll see Kansas wing Ochai Agbaji on a public draft board, which is a pretty real reversal from where I was a season ago. I did not love Agbaji during his first three years at Kansas because I didn’t think he showcased high-level feel for the game regularly. He couldn’t really handle the ball well enough, and the gears in his head seemed to be turning a bit too much. I believe I had him ranked somewhere in the 60s or 70s by the time he pulled out of the draft. This year, though, he’s been one of the five best players in the country and would unquestionably be on my first-team All-American ballot right now. Why? Because his skill-development has really come along. He’s much more comfortable putting the ball on the deck. He plays much more often at his own pace. He looks so much more comfortable out there and has morphed into one of the five best scorers in the country because of it.

Throw those in with the skills we already know he has — high-level shooting acumen and positive defensive contribution — and it’s really hard for me to understand what public evaluators are missing. He’s a young senior who doesn’t turn 22 until after this collegiate season ends, and he’s 6-foot-5 with a 6-foot-10 wingspan, great physical strength and a frame that looks like that of an NBA player. He hits 45 percent from 3 on seven 3-point attempts per game while averaging over 21 points and five rebounds per game. On top of that, he’s a plus on-ball defender who isn’t quite elite but does a good job on his man and has real switchable attributes one through four at the NBA level. Those guys stick in the NBA for a long, long time. And those guys tend to be lottery picks. Most NBA teams I’ve talked to have Agbaji somewhere in the 10 to 18 range right now because he’s one of the few players in a draft full of question marks who ticks a lot of boxes that suggest he’ll be able to play a role early on in his career.

CP War Hawks wrote:He resembles Bane from a physical standpoint 6-5 215, pure 2 guard. I think his at best ceiling is someone like Josh Richardson which isn't bad at all for a mid 1st rd pick.

For me, I would want to shoot for a higher ceiling player with the risk of it busting, pause. I kind of see shades of Dosunmu. I need to see how he measures at the combine. I'd consider him but he's much lower on my shortlist.

Red Flags We Can't Ignore

Agbaji's Unprecedented Lack of Playmaking for a Wing



Ochai Agbaji couldn't win over NBA scouts during his first three years at Kansas. He did this season during Kansas' championship run, and now he's viewed as a prospect who could wind up in the back half of the lottery.

So, what exactly did he add or improve to cause the sudden spike in interest? It wasn't creation or playmaking. Corey Kispert is the only senior wing who's been selected in the first round with an assist rate lower than 10.0 percent. Agbaji's 8.7 assist percentage will be the lowest. And he finished the season 1-of-8 out of isolation.

His shooting improvement is the obvious draw (40.7 percent from deep). However, even a career-best 74.3 free-throw mark seems low (career 71.4 percent) for a perceived shooting specialist. He also missed 19-of-23 floaters, which highlights some questionable touch.

Long and athletic, Agbaji was an effective cutter, but his offensive value still revolves mostly around shot-making, and he still made only 26.7 percent of his pull-ups.

These red flags aren't deal-breakers in terms of Agbaji's chances of sticking in the NBA. But using a lottery pick on a 22-year-old wing who doesn't provide any shot creation, passing or off-the-dribble scoring may mean drafting him over higher-upside or better long-term prospects.

Ochai Agbaji | 6-6 wing | 22 years old

13.5 PPG | 4.4 RPG | 1.6 AST | 44.8 FG% | 37.3 3PT% | 71.4 FT%

Agbaji fits as a 3-and-D wing. Until this past season, he was never a guy who could do much off the bounce. He improved drastically in that area, but his biggest strength is still making catch-and-shoot 3s. He gets them off quickly and backing up to the NBA 3-point line shouldn’t be a problem. He’s not likely to be a primary scorer at the NBA level, but he’ll be a guy who can go off every once in a while when he’s hot. When he’s really cooking, he makes 3s as effortlessly as layups.

His handle is strong enough now that he’s much better attacking a closeout. He’s also really good at turning the corner off a pindown when his defender locks and trails.

Spoiler:

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Agbaji developed a great feel for reading these screens and knowing when to come off shooting or curl toward the basket. When he decides to turn the corner, not a lot of guys have a burst like he has. He was also one of the best lob threats in the country. If it was anywhere close to the basket, he was going to go get it.

Spoiler:

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Agbaji will grade out as high as anyone in any draft when it comes to character. Both his parents played college basketball at the University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee and never allowed any entitlement to set in. Everyone in K.U.’s program loved Agbaji because he cared about all the right things and treated everyone with respect. He will immediately find the veterans on the team that drafts him and pick their brains on how to succeed in that city and in the NBA.

Agbaji took the feedback from a year ago, mainly that he needed to show he could be a dominant college player and improve his ability to make plays off the bounce, and he put in the work to make himself an All-American and first-round pick. His game is much more well-rounded than it was a year ago. Through the first couple months of the season, I kept finding myself saying, “He never would have done that before,” again and again and again. He’s able to do things now that I never would have imagined he could do before.

He does enough now in the shot-creation department to have a counter if someone runs him off the line. His pull-up game is solid, and he’s got a more diverse finishing package from his work with Beckner. He’s not going to be someone to run isolation plays for, but Kansas ran plays for him where he’d get the ball coming off the move — see the pindown above, for instance.

As a senior, Agbaji put the ball on the floor with confidence. He put the work in to get there, and NBA trainer Phil Beckner really helped him grow the mental side of his game. One great example was the NCAA Tournament, when Agbaji was in a shooting slump. He never seemed to let it affect the rest of his game, and he stayed positive. After going 2-of-12 from 3 in the first three games, he made both 3s in the Elite Eight against Miami and then set a Final Four record by nailing 5 of 6 attempts against Villanova. That kind of shooting display was a prime example of how his 3-ball can completely change a game.

Agbaji’s mindset offensively was different from his first game as a senior. He seemed to figure out he could be a dominant scorer at the college level, and his team needed that from him. But his defensive confidence seemed to grow throughout the year. He made fewer mistakes and also realized he could change games on that end. He is prone to fall asleep off the ball and get back-cut on occasion, but he’s such a quick-twitch athlete that he can sometimes recover in those moments. He’s also going to put the time in on scouting reports and ask questions. His self-awareness and willingness to admit when he needs help is one reason to bet on Agbaji. His pride is never going to get in the way.

One mistake talent evaluators used to make is figuring that a guy at 22 was pretty much a finished product. Turns out, guys can still improve in their 20s. Agbaji has always had the athleticism, but he was a late bloomer when it comes to the skill side of the game. He made huge improvements last season, and it’d be silly to assume he’s not going to continue to improve in the areas where he got a lot better a year ago.

Most-ideal prospects for Atlanta to consider

Ochai Agbaji, 6-5, G, Kansas, 22 years old



Where I like Agbaji’s potential fit is what he showed on the defensive end of the floor. He’s a tough perimeter defender who excelled at the point of attack, and he’s quick enough to play in space and hang with faster guards. The Hawks need more players who don’t take plays off defensively, and Agbaji has shown that he will give maximum effort on that side of the floor.

Offensively, what makes his fit with the Hawks intriguing is how good he was off the ball, a must if he’s going to play with Trae Young. He finished in the 89th percentile for catch-and-shooting and in the 97th percentile in cutting. Agbaji made 40.7 percent on 3-pointers on nearly seven attempts per game this past season for the NCAA champions.

He was also named the Most Outstanding Player at the Final Four.

There are players projected in the middle of the first round who have higher ceilings than Agbaji, but becoming a solid rotation player isn’t a bad outcome for your 16th pick. Teams are likely not drafting him thinking he’ll be a star or the second option, and that’s perfectly fine for what the Hawks need.

Ochai Agbaji | 6-5 senior | SG | Kansas

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The defining case of this year’s shooting guard crop: A really, really good college player who doesn’t offer a lot of excitement for how his game might translate up. At the most basic level, he’s a 6-5 guard who can shoot 3s and won’t beat himself, so getting to back-end-rotation-caliber usefulness wouldn’t be shocking. Anything beyond that would be gravy; there’s just not a lot in his profile that hints at that caliber of player.

In particular, the “indicator” stats of rebounds, assists and steals are all worryingly low for a guard, especially a senior. Despite a 6-10 wingspan, it was hard to find evidence of its use on the floor.

Agbaji can shoot, hitting 40.7 percent of his 3s in 2021-22 on high volume, but don’t get carried away: He’s also a 71.4 percent career foul shooter. As a creator off the dribble, I don’t see much, although he was able to get to pull-ups fairly effectively.

On defense, it’s a similar story. He’s not impactfully as far as getting hands on balls or flying out at shooters on shot contests, and he’s not capable of true ball pressure. However, he’s a good feet-slider who works hard to keep dribblers in front of him and plays angles and scouting reports; it was notable in the tape that he’d crowd some players much tighter than others based on their ability.

Overall, he’s a classic “won’t kill us” guy. But I’m not sure there’s much upside either.