What direction do the Hawks go now? (Offseason Meditations)

[Jamaaliver]

To become like Heat, Hawks need major changes



The Heat made it to the 2020 NBA Finals, were swept by Milwaukee in last year’s opening round and then dominated the Hawks in this year’s first round. The Hawks say they can follow Miami’s example of getting back up after getting beat down. They aim to do the same after they followed a run to the 2021 Eastern Conference finals with a five-game clunker against Miami in this year’s first round.

The Hawks won’t do it if they stand pat.

The Heat tried that last season and got diminishing returns, same as the Hawks this season. Taking the next step for the Hawks will require general manager Travis Schlenk to strategically shake up the roster, and not just on the edges. That’s necessary now that it’s clear that the ceiling for the current group is well short of the NBA Finals. The Heat came to a similar conclusion after last season. They finished fifth in the East before the Finals run. They were the sixth seed when the Bucks swept them from last year’s playoff. They are the No. 1 seed this year.

Unlike the Heat, the Hawks don’t yet have a baseline organizational identity. The Hawks are built to score, but so much of that relies on Young. Once Miami made scoring tough, the Hawks had no defensive grit to carry them. Adding players won’t be simple for the Hawks. Their payroll will approach the luxury-tax threshold once Young’s contract extension kicks in next season.

Spoiler:

The Hawks can reasonably expect internal development. They are a young team with room to grow. Five of their key players will be 25 years old or younger next season: Young, John Collins, De’Andre Hunter, Kevin Huerter and Onyeka Okongwu. The Hawks would be a good team in 2022-23 with those players plus long-time veterans Clint Capela, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Danilo Gallinari.

But the Hawks wouldn’t be a true East contender if they stand pat. They have plenty of good players under contract for next season. They don’t have the right mix of players to beat teams like Milwaukee and Miami.

The current Hawks group doesn’t have a high-level scorer and passer to make opponents pay for loading up against Young. There aren’t enough guys willing or able to dig in on defense for every possession. It’s asking a lot for the Hawks to get those needed elements from the same players. The more realistic way to do it is to bring in players who have the attributes the team needs.

The Heat did that when they acquired Lowry and Tucker before last season.

The Heat acquired Lowry in a sign-and-trade with the Raptors. They parted with declining veteran Goran Dragic and Precious Achiuwa, who they picked 20th overall in the 2020 draft. Lowry is a great fit for the Heat. It’s possible the Hawks can make a similar trade for a standout veteran.

They have players more valuable than Dragic and Achiuwa that they can include in trades. Plenty of teams could use, say, Collins or Bogdanovic. The Hawks also own an extra first-round draft pick. The Heat committed $90 million over three years to Lowry, who will be 38 years old at the end of the deal. That kind of risk is necessary to get a player of his stature.

The Heat’s acquisition of Tucker was more straightforward. He signed a free-agent deal for two years and $14.4 million with a player option. This summer the Hawks will have the same salary-cap exception Miami used to sign Tucker. Schlenk likely would have to shed payroll to use it while not paying the tax. One option: waiving Gallinari before June 30 so only $5 million of his $21.45 million salary counts against the 2022-23 cap.

The clear goal for the Schlenk in any moves he makes is building a team around Young. He’s a special talent. That’s why the Hawks signed Young to the maximum extension as soon as he was eligible. Young’s ability to control games with the ball is why the Heat built their game plan around denying it to him and preventing him from getting to his signature floater.

The challenging part about building a team around Young is that his relatively small stature means only certain complementary players will do. Ideally, the Hawks need multiple big wing players who can score off the bounce, pass and defend. Those type of players are difficult to acquire.

Young will have to be better, too. He had an awful series against the Heat. It happens to the best of them. It’s not an indictment of Young’s ability to take the Hawks places they’ve never been since moving to Atlanta. Nearly ever great player fails in the playoffs before they win big (LeBron James is, as usual, among the exceptions). However, the Heat series did highlight some of Young’s bad habits.

He tends to seek out mismatches at the expense of offensive flow. All players complain to officials, and Young’s gripes are sometimes legitimate, but he does it to the point of distraction. Young’s size means he’ll never be a great defender. He could be much better. His smarts and feel for the game are reasons why he’s an elite offensive player. Young can use those same traits to become a defensive nuisance. It’s up to Young to refine his game. He also needs more help.

You can ask Young to trust his teammates with the ball, but which of them have shown a consistent ability to go get baskets or set up teammates for easy scores? After the Heat eliminated the Hawks, Young said he’s willing to play off the ball more, but added that “it’s just really about putting in the right system for me to be off the ball, too.” Add that to coach Nate McMillan’s to-do list.

For his team to go further, Travis Schlenk needs to add better players who fit the team’s needs. That’s the main lesson the Hawks should take from the Heat drubbing them from the playoffs a year after not winning a postseason game.

AJC

[jayu70]

NBA Twitter seems onboard with Hawks acquiring Gobert. Maybe TOO onboard.

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Spoiler:

for a 1 way player whose impact just isn't felt in the playoffs for $40 mil?. He will have the same issue here as in Utah unless the Hawks sure up the defense on the wings

[jayu70]

The Starter each team could replace

Atlanta Hawks: John Collins



Yes, the Hawks just signed John Collins to a five-year, $125 million pact before the season, but they seemingly second-guessed the deal soon after it was signed. The two sides ironed out the contract in August, and by January, his name was already bouncing around the trade rumor mill.

The issue isn't Collins himself. He's a 24-year-old who's been good for 18.5 points and 8.7 rebounds since the start of 2018-19. In most situations, his age and ability might lock him into building-block status.

In Atlanta, though, his close-range finishing overlaps with starting center Clint Capela's skill set. While Collins can stretch the floor, he has never been a high-volume shooter. This season, just 27.3 percent of his field-goal attempts came from the perimeter, and that was a career high.

When the Hawks re-signed him, they were investing in young, ascending talent. Now, it's time to prioritize fit and team needs. While other clubs could covet Collins' finishing and glass-cleaning, Atlanta would elevate its roster by flipping him in a deal that brings back a dynamic wing defender who can create his own shot.

Bleacher Report

Pity they didn't list the wing defender that can create his own shot we would get.

[dms269]

I feel like with Collins is that he is a good 4th/5th option player. If Trae is being shut down we need someone who can step up consistently.

Instead we are left with 1-6 Huerter.

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[HMFFL]

I feel like with Collins is that he is a good 4th/5th option player. If Trae is being shut down we need someone who can step up consistently.

Instead we are left with 1-6 Huerter.

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Collins seems to believe bes a first or second option. He wants more touches.

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[Jamaaliver]

An argument against major roster changes:

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[Jamaaliver]

An excerpt from ESPN Insider.

How the Atlanta Hawks can fix what went wrong

How can Trae Young & Co. get deeper in the playoffs in 2023?



It was only last July that the Atlanta Hawks were two wins away from the NBA Finals. However, that momentum has all but disappeared after a season that saw Atlanta finish ninth in the East then lose in the first round to the Miami Heat.

Expect ownership and the Hawks' front office to now complete a full audit on what went wrong.

There are plenty of reasons to explain what went wrong.

The logical answer is that Atlanta could not recover from a sluggish first half of the season (17-25 in the first 42 games), injuries to key players and a porous defense.

The Hawks' inefficient fourth quarters are largely to blame for their slow start...prior to January 17, Atlanta ranked 28th in fourth-quarter net efficiency and 26th in fourth-quarter offensive efficiency. Last year they ranked second in fourth-quarter net efficiency after Nate McMillan took over.

Injuries certainly took a toll on the roster also. The starting lineup that lost in the Eastern Conference finals (Trae Young, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Kevin Huerter, John Collins and Clint Capela) started only nine games this year, going 8-1. Collins, Bogdanovic, Capela and Huerter combined to miss more than 50 games.

Their defense ranked 26th in efficiency and was an Achilles heel all season. The Hawks had a 115.0 defensive efficiency with Young on the court and 108.0 when he was off. Going forward, Atlanta will need to balance the lineup when Young is on the court. Young is not going anywhere, but the humility from this season should be a warning sign that the front office will not rely on roster continuity, something the Hawks did last offseason.

The Hawks will have a first-round pick to add to the roster, but little flexibility beyond that.

Despite the shortcomings this year, there is still enough proof that the Hawks can be successful with their core players. While this season is viewed as a disappointment, Trae Young, John Collins and Kevin Huerter have not yet reached their 25th birthday and last year proved that, when healthy, Atlanta is a top-six team in the East.

Team needs

Defensive minded backup point guard and small forward

Resources to build the roster

The draft: First-round pick

[HMFFL]

Brian Windhorst: ‘I think Pascal Siakam potentially could be available for the right trade. I don’t know if it’s for Rudy Gobert, though. To me the team that makes the most sense is Atlanta. Because their defense is horrific, it’s holding them back. Trae Young has got to get better defensively. We understand he’s not going to be Gary Payton, but he has to improve, he’s got to try.’

 

– via Apple Podcasts


https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/significance-of-harden-time-for-change-in-utah/id293376147?i=1000559110238

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[Geaux_Hawks]

I'm pretty sure Golden State used a jump in the salary cap to sign Kevin Durant as their second star...

Right, but I was more talking about before KD, as they were good enough to win a title without him and still be contender without him.
KD at GSW was what we could consider the second step after getting first to the next step.

It's not that I don't want to add a star, just that I think the cost will make it loosing on several other points, and I'm not sure it would overall be a better thing.

Coming out of college, the only real knock on Klay was that he wasn't an overly impressive athlete. Average at best is what I kept hearing. The thing with him was he had everything you wanted from a 2 guard prospect outside of that. Everything he does now, was apart of his game at Washington St. So it only made sense that he developed and became who he is now. It's a reason him and Steph transcended the game.

De'andre Hunter for lack of better words, is what he is. Always considered a jack of all trades kind of guy. Versatility was his calling card. Many knew before even being drafted that he was only going to be like your 3rd or 4th best player on a championship team. so for anyone believing Hunter just needs more time to develop, then I say you'll be waiting for quite a while for him to be that good to where he's your best player or even 2nd best.

John Collins is the same way. Everybody knew he was an explosive 2 foot jumper. Nothing much else besides that though or at least hasn't shown enough consistency doing certain things. He lacked in so many other areas. Some even thought he'd primarily be a center in the league because that's exactly what his game mimics. A modern day 5 on offense. I give him Kudo's for showing he has some range, but not much else has become of him.

I mean I could literally break down every player, but the point is, we've got a bunch of good to great role players, and that's okay. It doesn't suggest Schlenk is bad at drafting considering he came out positive on most of the guys he's drafted. Guys developed the way they were supposed to, and some still need some more seasoning, but lets face it, we're not getting a 2nd star out of the bunch. We got Trae, and that's good enough considering a lot of teams don't even find a Trae. We need to consolidate and readjust the plan.

[D21]

All these rumors and discussion based on ATL defense are half stupid. It would make sense if it has been two seasons in a row, but it was only this year. If Capela and Collins had been healthy in playoffs, the regular season and playoffs would have been totally different.

Yes, it's not the best defense, but we know what they were capable of last season in the playoffs.
So the first thing to change is having all healthy, and a better coaching.

Regarding the Gobert rumor, I smell it from last season, but I would not have thought that he would sign for this contract. A big contract, yes, but not that high

Right, but I was more talking about before KD, as they were good enough to win a title without him and still be contender without him.
KD at GSW was what we could consider the second step after getting first to the next step.

It's not that I don't want to add a star, just that I think the cost will make it loosing on several other points, and I'm not sure it would overall be a better thing.

Before KD, there was Andre Iguodala...a guy that was an 18/6/6 guy in his Philly days...a guy that could handle the ball, get his own shot and create for others and play defense.

If Hunter could develop into a CONSISTANT 18/6/6 guy we may have something there as a secondary creator. He'd have to have an offseason for the ages tightening up his handles and becoming a playmaker...tall order.
If he's gonna be our Klay, we would still need another ballhandler/offensive creator....we couldn't beat a simple full court press.

Iguodala was a beast in defense, and it will hard to get that, but I think the 18/6/6 guy should be more Bogi than Hunter.
Trae as Curry, Bogi as Iguodala and Hunter as Thompson. Now, as they would not be as good in defense, we would need better defense on other spots.

[Jamaaliver]

[Jamaaliver]

Anybody up for a TP reunion at an extreme discount?

Under-the-Radar 2022 NBA Free-Agent Bargains

Taurean Prince, Unrestricted Free Agent



Taurean Prince popped early, averaging 14.1 points and getting noticed for his wing defense in his second season. He then quickly became a bit overrated as a stopper and a little overpaid with a two-year, $25 million deal from the Brooklyn Nets in 2019.

Prince bounced around after that, playing for three teams in the last two years. He's not a reclamation project at age 28, but he's exactly the kind of overlooked contributor that a shrewd front office could scoop up. Even if he's not going to be the first-unit combo forward some expected earlier in his career, Prince proved this season that he can provide value to a winner in a limited role.

For the first time since his rookie year in Atlanta, Prince mattered for a playoff team. He averaged 20.7 minutes per game for the Minnesota Timberwolves after the 2022 All-Star break and remained part of the postseason rotation. He's even had some surprising displays of shot-creating skill—intriguing, even if any team signing him will be happy with solid three-and-D play.

Prince is a career 37.1 percent shooter from distance, and he ranked in the 83rd percentile among forwards in points per shot attempt in 2021-22. He's not perfect, but he is 6'7", reasonably mobile and can make an open three. That package is worth more than the minimum, which is all Prince may be in line to get on his next deal.

Bleacher Report

[Jamaaliver]

If we move on from Gallinari this summer, this is the off the bench replacement I'd pursue using the MLE.

Under-the-Radar 2022 NBA Free-Agent Bargains

Otto Porter Jr., Unrestricted



Otto Porter Jr.'s 2021-22 numbers don't look all that different from the ones he produced the season before, when he looked out of shape and slipped into obscurity with the Orlando Magic after coming aboard in the trade that sent Nikola Vucevic to the Chicago Bulls.

The 28-year-old, signed to a minimum deal with the Golden State Warriors, averaged 8.2 points, 5.7 rebounds and 1.5 assists in 22.2 minutes per game—no better on the surface than the 9.7 points, 5.4 rebounds and 2.0 assists he put up between the Bulls and Magic.

Look a little deeper and you'll see why Porter should be in much higher demand this offseason than last. For starters, he took a larger share of shots from beyond the arc than ever before, and he was especially deadly above the break, where he drilled 39.0 percent of his attempts. Slimmer and more mobile, Porter also finished at a career-best 72.0 percent clip at the rim.

The biggest change was positional, as Porter completed his transition from wing to small-ball big. He played zero minutes at the 3 for the first time in his career and actually spent more than a third of his court time as a center in Golden State's downsized attack. He was an integral rotation piece on a contender and stayed healthy enough to log 63 games, his most since 2017-18.

Porter remained a phenomenal rebounder for his position and continued to post elite steal rates, using his length and active hands to disrupt opposing offensive players.

Between his ho-hum counting stats and the stigma of playing on a minimum deal (plus an ugly injury history that may still be on teams' minds), Porter could find it difficult to secure a significant raise. The tax-hit Warriors know how valuable he is, but they may not have the stomach for a pay bump. Smart teams will realize Porter is worth something close to the mid-level exception and pounce.

Bleacher Report

[GetBucketsATL]

......

[Jamaaliver]

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[CP War Hawks]

Trav waited too long to move some pieces. Like Huerter had a strong playoff run previously and in theory could've demanded more that offseason.

I guess they are running it back with Nate wasting another prime year of Trae. If Charlotte lands Atkinson, that'll be a tough pill to swallow.

[HMFFL]

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Spot on. Now, let's see some upgrades.
While.I would like another true star talent I also would be content with some skilled bullies like Bobby Portis. I realize he won't be an option but we need players like him.

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[Jamaaliver]

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Spot on. Now, let's see some upgrades.


While I would like another true star talent, I also would be content with some skilled bullies like Bobby Portis. I realize he won't be an option but we need players like him.

Crazy eyes Portis is exactly the kind of player we need!!!



Intense player, strong defender, three and D skill set.

[D21]

We need guys like Portis, Tucker,... and guys like Gary Payton II
Unless Nate can play Cooper, which won't fix the size problem on PG, I would keep Delon and try to get Gary Payton II even if it cost Huerter to make room.
After that, maybe Whiteside as backup C, Otto Porter Jr. as backup PF if they cut Gallo
I would also look at Malik Monk but he brings more on offense than defense.
One of Jeremy Lamb, DiVincenzo if SAC doesn't keep him (we never know with SAC) or Terence Davis (still has 4M for next season) but all are not very tall guys

[jayu70]

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