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Ryan Dunn
Team: Virginia
Size: 6'8", 216 lbs
Age: 20

Notable early numbers: 85.7 percent at the rim, 7.1 steal percentage, 11.6 block percentage

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Ryan Dunn is trending toward outlier status with defensive potential that could create enough value to offset his scoring limitations.

After playing just 12.9 minutes last year, he's building a reputation as the most impactful non-center defender in the country, currently ranked No. 2 nationally in defensive box plus-minus, No. 4 in defensive win shares and No. 6 in steal percentage. He's even blocking 2.5 shots per game with mostly a wing's body, though NBA coaches willing to think out of the box could envision him playing stretches as a small-ball 5.

The eye test backs up the numbers. Scouts love how many different ways he can influence possessions with either ball pressure, court coverage, reaction time or playmaking.

According to Synergy Sports, opponents are shooting 3-of-27 on Dunn when he's considered the primary defender. Nobody has yet to convert a field goal on him at the rim.

Scouts are starting to see a potential defensive difference-maker for the next level, particularly in ball-screen situations, where he's shown an outrageous mix of foot speed to hedge and awareness/speed to recover back to roll men and contest around the basket.

Offensively, despite showing little dribble creativity, he's still giving Virginia 10.3 points per game, mostly by tapping into his explosiveness for play-finishing off transition, cuts, rolls and putbacks.

Scouts still want to see some signs of shooting potential, even if the most realistic, hopeful outcome will be for Dunn to reach Herb Jones' level of capable. Just posing a threat to hit a catch-and-shoot three will affect spacing, as we've already seen instances of opposing defenses leaving Dunn open to help elsewhere.

The fact that he's taking twice as many threes per 40 minutes (3.4, up from 1.6) is encouraging, as is his decent start from the free-throw line (69.0 percent). Regardless, the combination of age (20), 6'8" size, special athleticism and elite defense should ultimately buy Dunn extra time with scouts.

Ryan Dunn



School/Team: Virginia
Position: SF/PF
Age: 20, Sophomore
Size: 6'8", 216 lbs
Pro Comparison: Herb Jones

Ryan Dunn is making defensive plays at a rate we've never seen. And at 6'8" with elite-level explosion and foot speed, scouts are seeing translatable defensive playmaking and court coverage.

The question is how high it can push him up boards, since he's just 4-of-19 from three and hasn't demonstrated any real handle, creation or passing.

In the mid-first round, however, there aren't a lot of prospect who offer certainty. And Dunn does with his defensive versatility and play-finishing, a combination that can be valuable in a specific role for a team that gets enough scoring.

Ryan Dunn | Virginia

6'8" | 216 lb | Forward | 21 years old | Sophomore

The best defender in this class, a player who can lock down multiple positions and get stops anywhere on the floor.

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Shades of: Herb Jones, Andre Roberson

PLUSES

• Special defender who disrupts plays in every way. He can shade toward a ball handler, then recover to his man before the ball even gets there. He has closing speed to run shooters off the line, or block drivers from behind in the paint. He’s intelligent, often blowing up opponents’ plays. And with his versatility, he can switch to effectively contain opponents of any shape or style.
  
• Elite rim protector from the wing position with immaculate timing when helping inside. Plus, he rebounds well for someone his size, which allows him to play some power forward.
  
• Understands his offensive role. He isn’t a creator but he limits mistakes, and keeps the ball moving.
  
• Athletic at-rim finisher with solid skills attacking closeouts in a straight line, a knack for running the break, and a great feel for cutting in the half court. He can use touch finishes with either hand, or put defenders on a poster.

MINUSES

• Limited shooter who lacks any semblance of a midrange game. Opponents don’t show him respect when he’s spotting up from 3. He bricks open looks, and hasn’t shown any better touch from the line. Unless he makes significant improvements, he’ll need to be used closer to the rim or as a screener, and in lineups that feature a lot of shooting around him.
  
• Has shown no ability to create his own shot, aside from straight-line and transition drives, and he won’t be asked to generate offense for others. Even when he’s in the open floor, or covered by a slower player, he tends to just look to move the ball.

Jamaaliver wrote:Seems like he gets a ton of no-calls at the collegiate level because of his reputation as a defender.

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Jamaaliver wrote:An elite defensive weapon on the wings.

I'm curious, is the only difference between Dunn and the Thompson Twins is that Dunn is simply less athletic?

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Sam Vecenie wrote:Ryan Dunn | 6-8 wing | 21 years old | Virginia



This is all about defense. If anyone across college basketball has a vote for the National Defensive Player of the Year award and you’re considering giving it to someone else, you’re wrong. Dunn is the most impactful defender in the country, and I’m not sure it’s all that close. He can do everything you ask of him on that end and more. He can guard one through five in college and projects to guard one through four in the NBA. He is an elite defensive playmaker who is averaging 1.5 steals and more than two blocks per game. He’s always available as a weakside rim protector, and he can run any ball-screen coverage you want.

The issue for Dunn is on offense and trying to figure out what you do with him. He plays hard, crashes the offensive glass and is a sharp cutter. But the jumper has been rough throughout his two years at Virginia, and in recent games, he’s been a bit less confident in taking it. The defensive side of the floor is so strong that it’s hard to imagine him not playing in the NBA for a while, but he needs to find a role on offense. If you’re the Suns Hawks, are you a bit more willing to take a chance on an All-Defense upside player at the expense of offense given the roster build?

Jamaaliver wrote:

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Jonathan Givony wrote:2024 NBA draft rankings

24. Ryan Dunn | SF/PF | Virginia

6-8 | Age: 21.1

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Dunn's case will be an interesting litmus test for where executives stand amid the NBA's offensive explosion, which has seen scoring records shattered annually. He is unequivocally the best defender in college basketball, but Dunn has not taken the step forward many hoped he would on the other end of the floor, as he currently ranks among the bottom of the class in usage and scoring rate while hitting just 7 of 32 attempts from 3 and only 53% of his free throws.

Dunn's offensive struggles have been magnified by Virginia's futility on that end of the floor, as the Cavaliers failed to crack 50 points in four of their past five games. Dunn will need to show more offensive potential during the pre-draft process once outside the confines of Virginia's conservative schemes to assuage worries about his ability on that end of the floor.