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Play-In Preview

Three keys for a Hawks victory

The Atlanta Hawks travel to Orlando to take on the Magic tonight in a “win and you’re in” Play-In Tournament bout between the seventh and eighth seeds in the Eastern Conference. The Hawks are no strangers to this (relatively) new postseason format, with tonight marking their fourth consecutive Play-In Tournament appearance*, while the Magic are making their Play-In debut.

Ahead of tonight’s game, let’s outline a few keys to victory for the Atlanta Hawks.

1. Efficiency From Inside the Arc

Spoiler:

It’s no secret that defense is Orlando’s calling card. During the regular season, the Magic ranked 27th in offensive rating and second in defensive rating, allowing their opponents to score just 109.1 points per 100 possessions.

While the Magic like to pressure opposing ball handlers — and they force turnovers at the second-highest rate in the league — another critical component of their defensive strategy is to take away the three ball and funnel their opponents to the interior as you can glean from their defensive shot profile below.



With Orlando allowing the lowest opponent three-point attempt rate in the league, it’s obviously going to be vital for Atlanta to score efficiently from inside the arc in order to come away with a victory tonight.

Fortunately for the Hawks, their interior efficiency has been solid since the trade deadline, with the team shooting 49.6% from floater distance* and 66.5% at the rim** over their last 31 games per cleaningtheglass.com.

That being said, if we look at their first three matchups* against the Magic specifically (all of which occurred after the trade deadline), while they maintained their impressive efficiency from floater distance, there were still some major question marks regarding their ability to finish at the rim.

Per pbpstats, in the three meaningful games they played against Orlando this season, the Hawks shot 45-for-85 (52.9%) from floater range and a disastrous 33-for-64 (51.6%) at the rim.

2. Keep Both Bigs Out of Foul Trouble

Spoiler:

Another defining characteristic of the Orlando Magic is their size. Orlando have four players in their projected rotation (five if you include Goga Bitadze) that are 6’10” or taller in Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. and Jonathan Isaac.

Meanwhile, the Hawks have just two players that are 6’10” or taller on their active roster in Onyeka Okongwu and Mouhamed Gueye. While I wouldn’t call it a death sentence for Atlanta if one of Okongwu or Gueye gets into early foul trouble, it would certainly make life much more difficult for them on the defensive end of the floor.

The Hawks like to deploy Okongwu as the primary defender on Banchero*, leaving Okongwu’s frontcourt partner with the responsibilities of guarding Orlando’s ‘5’ (typically Carter Jr.) and serving as the primary rim protector.

Given how big Orlando is across the board, and the fact that they are far more efficient from inside the arc than they are from beyond the three-point line*, defending the paint (and specifically the rim) is going to be pivotal for Atlanta’s success on the defensive end of the floor tonight. This task becomes much easier for the Hawks if they are able to deploy their “double-big” lineup worry-free, for as long as is required.

*Orlando ranked dead last in three-point percentage (31.8%) during the regular season

3. Dyson Daniels Must Exploit Mismatches

Spoiler:

Dyson Daniels has had a spectacular season so far. The defensive clinic that he’s put on this season will undoubtedly earn him consideration for both the Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player awards this season. His offense, which was a significant question mark entering the season, has been better than expected, and his scoring efficiency has been trending up for most of the season.

That being said, over his three contests against Orlando this season, despite drawing some of the less intimidating matchups on the offensive end*, Daniels has averaged just 11.7 points, 3.0 assists and 1.7 turnovers per game while shooting just 15-for-35 (42.8%) from the floor, including 0-for-5 from three.

*Against Orlando, Daniels has typically been guarded by Cory Joseph or Cole Anthony

After rewatching his field goal attempts from these games, I see little reason why Daniels can’t give Atlanta some more on the offensive end in tonight’s contest.

One way they could look to do this is by tapping into Okongwu as the playmaking hub some more. As seen in a few of the clips above, with Okongwu handling the ball on the perimeter, this draws Orlando’s big man out of the paint which creates easier finishes for Atlanta’s perimeter players off a cut or a drive.

For Daniels, whose offensive game is still a work in progress, this could help get him more comfortable looks shot attempts.

HMFFL wrote:Orlando beat us inside.

Points in the paint:
Orlando 58
Atlanta 52

Jamaaliver wrote:

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Geaux_Hawks wrote:And I get that we're shorthanded on the frontline, but Gueye should've saw 40+ minutes with how good he played Paolo.

Jamaaliver wrote:

Geaux_Hawks wrote:And I get that we're shorthanded on the frontline, but Gueye should've saw 40+ minutes with how good he played Paolo.

Gotta leave those clips empty...

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Geaux_Hawks wrote:Which brings me to OO. He's good, but we're undersized if he is at the 5. A legit 7 footer is desperately needed. Too many times Orlando was able to score right under the basket.

Like I mentioned above, Niang should probably never see more than 15 minutes on the floor, and that problem will get solved with JJ coming back.

• Niang will be an expiring contract and adds three point shooting to a team in need of some serious floor spacing.
• Goga is a big bodied (near) 7-footer who's over qualified to be Orlando's backup center (and can platoon with Okongwu.)
• Their annual salary is almost an exact match.
• Hawks might have to throw in a conditional 2nd rounder to get the job done.