RealGM

First let me say that I don't expect a big trade to occur involving us. Would anyone else be willing to send them either Zaza or Shelden for Keyon Dooling?

Even though it would make us thinner in the front court (if it's Zaza), I would gladly do it just to clear that little extra salary for free agent maneuvering. Getting Dooling to take minutes at PG could be a bonus.

I would love to make it as one of several moves, but that is far too much to hope for out of this front office.

Not conclusive, but interesting stats on Dooling while at PG
http://www.82games.com/0708/07ORL3C.HTM

What say you?

Never trade big for small unless you're trading a scrub for a potential All-Star.

Says I.

Well, we have the scrub portion of the equation met.

I like Keith very much but doubt Orlando moves him. I on the other hand would really love for us to acquire Luther Head.

What would Houston be looking for in a deal? I've not heard much in the rumor mill involving them at all.

Dallas

I know that teams like Phoenix, Dallas and Toronto use this system when evaluating players and was looking over this site yesterday at possible pgs from all over the league...

You seem to have a pretty good grasp of the site can you explain to me the overall NET +/- on this page?

http://www.82games.com/0708/0708ATL.HTM

Lets take Anthony Johnson for example...

This Roland rating is just a number taking in to account yeah?

AJ's +.08 how does that compare to Dooling's -.09?

How do things like quality of the team around a player, minutes actually spent on the floor (are those minutes spent playing Steve Nash or Marcus Banks, or garbage time) affect these rating's?

I think when Orlando says they want a big they mean a serviceable on. Shelden and Zaza don't fit into this category.

I'll do my best in trying to explain it. On Court +/- is the team's net points with the player on the floor. Off Court +/- is the team's net points when the player isn't on the court. Net On Court / Off Court +/- is simply the difference between the 2 numbers. Some use this as synonymous with Roland Rating, but I believe the Roland Rating numbers are taken on per 100 possession basis. A bad team will have mostly negative scores while a very successful team will have mostly positive scores. If you add up the entire on column you should get the per game +/- of the team.

What you take from the this number are 2 things. How the player does in comparison to other players at that position on the team. Secondly, you can take it as an approximation of how well a player fits what a team is trying to do. Although both of these summations ignore the quality of teammates on the floor. It isn't like 2 PGs on the same teams get to play with the same 4 other players all the time. Depending on rotation patterns and game situations there may be a lot of mitigating factors. They don't really allow for comparison across teams at all because the mitigating factors are even greater. Like PG for Boston will have a lot better +/- numbers than PG for Miami regardless of how good the individuals might be because the team is much better. The net numbers are negative for a lot of the Boston bench because the starters are so strong.

For AJ and Lue, their net numbers are boosted by Law's bad numbers. It actually indicates that when AJ is on the court that we outscore our opponents by 1.1 PPG. When Lue is on the floor we outscore our opponents by 2.0 PPG. When Law is on the floor we are outscored by 6 PPG. If In Orlando, it would contrast Dooling with Nelson and Arroyo and the point and Evans and Bogans at the 2. Orlando outscores their opponents when Dooling is in the game, but outscore them even more with him off.

The production field is perhaps better for comparing players on different teams, but it is still not perfect. For instance a team with strong shot blocking actually boost the defensive performance of the guards statistically because of erasing mistakes. If you look at AJ and Lue they both approximately are worth 14 in production offensively, but whomever Lue is playing against tends to score more (18 to 15.5). AJ is a more effective performer although not positive. If you look at Dooling he contributes and allows 15.5.

If you click on AJ and then on by Position, you'll see the vast majority of the time he is at PG. In fact he is credited as Atlanta Hawks PG 42% of the teams minutes. During this time he functions at 13.8 PER while his opposing PG function at 14.5 PER. The same check on Dooling shows only 15% of the Magic PG minutes with a PER of 18.7 while allowing 10.6 to his opponent. Those are gaudy numbers, but in a relative small time. I just use these numbers to give me a general idea. High PER for indicates good offensive skills. Low PER against would indicate good defensive skills, but not always (depends whom who are covering). Good NET PER means that you are better than your opponent. Josh Smith and Amare Stoudamire both have the same NET PER of 7.9. Amare does it by having gaudy offensive numbers of 29.8 while allowing 21.9. Josh Smith's own PER is 22.9 but is allow only 15.1 against.

Another example to look at is Andre Miller. If you look at the +/- numbers you realize that Philadelphia is performing better with him off the floor. If you look at production his PER is greater than his opponent. That combined with the fact that he has 75% on court leads me to believe that when his backup in on the floor the situation is such that it allows for better net numbers albeit garbage time or that possibly the Sixers 2nd units is slightly better than opponents 2nd units. Since starters generally play 70% of the time the quality of your 1st unit is a greater indicator of won-loss record and +/-.

To quickly hit your other questions:
Quality of team around a player definitely affects the numbers as does situations because these are numbers of how the whole team does when the player is on the court. There is nothing to accommodate the effect of garbage time. There is an indication next to a players numbers for the percentage of court time he has.

That's the best I can throw together given my understanding. Hope that helps. These stats are definitely not perfect but can help as a comparison at least within teams.

I've always liked Dooling's game. He's a pretty good defender and is very quick and athletic. I think he could really find his game here, if Zaza or Shelden is all it took than I would do it.

Dooling will be a UFA this summer so i can't see trading for him now.

Also Orlando has Evans and Bogans who will be UFA's this summer. Either one of them would be useful here.

tontoz wrote:Dooling will be a UFA this summer so i can't see trading for him now.

Also Orlando has Evans and Bogans who will be UFA's this summer. Either one of them would be useful here.

Just curious, why is that a drawback on Dooling?

evildallas wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Just curious, why is that a drawback on Dooling?

In order to get him we have to give up something they want. We aren't going to get him for nothing. Therefore we are giving something up for a 2 month rental basically.

Why do that when we could just make an offer this summer?

I'm looking for help down the stretch this year and they want a big body. I'll admit our bigs aren't the sexiest, but we aren't asking for a lot for one of them. There are players that would make a bigger impact, but would also cost them a lot more to acquire.

Once summer time comes I think there are better free agents to pursue, but it may come down to adding inexpensive pieces like Dooling when we fail to make a big move.

but we aren't asking for a lot for one of them.

I think we can get more for Shelden or Zaza than just an expirer, and i am not fond of either one of them.

I see Dooling as an expirer that can contribute this year not just any expirer.

I hope you are right and Shelden or Zaza can command more but I just don't see that. They are at low ebbs in production right now and I can't see them even getting showcased for a trade to drive up values.

Cheers for that, Wasn't expecting such a detailed response... Much appreciated!

perthwildcat wrote:Cheers for that, Wasn't expecting such a detailed response... Much appreciated!

I make his words mine. Excellent exlanation, evil, TY.

tontoz wrote:

but we aren't asking for a lot for one of them.

I think we can get more for Shelden or Zaza than just an expirer, and i am not fond of either one of them.

Thank you.

Both are still young and have some value.