Long term PG solutions?

[evildallas]

The world is full of options. Most are possibilities in the off season. What do you think is the best way to progress in the off season with respect to this crucial position? I've tried to list the pros and cons of each option. Understandably D and G are sketchy because I didn't narrow it to just 1 player. I left off the draft option since it unlikely for us to pick up a good pick. It is possible to chase A, B, or C and use other plans follow ups, or possibly even follow a restricted courtship with A (although unlikely to be successful) but this is what should be the primary option.

Plan A - Sign Gilbert Arenas
Pros - Unrestricted, marketing upside of already a star, creates his own offense, would alleviate a lot of pressure from Joe
Cons - Will cost the max, require renouncing Childress to make offer, may still refuse, his domination of ball could hurt development of other players, expense will result in thin bench

Plan B - Sign Jose Calderon
Pros - he's an offensive facilitator PG, shoots the 3 well, could be on the verge of a breakout
Cons - Restricted so he can be matched, require renouncing Josh Childress to make offer, salary likely to be 10M or higher per year (to not be matched), expense will result in thin bench

Plan C - Sign Monta Ellis
Pros - Could be the next Gilbert Arenas, excellent speed which creates half court advantage, can shoot from outside as well
Cons - Restricted so he can be matched, require renouncing Josh Childress to make offer, salary likely to be 10M or higher per year (to not be matched), expense will result in thin bench, not a proven PG, not known for his court vision

Plan D - Sign an inexpensive free agent PG
The first 3 are the biggies, but it is possible to sign a less expensive free agent like Chris Duhon, Beno Udrih, or Carlos Arroyo.
Pros - Lower cost allows greater investment elsewhere, could upgrade performance of the back court, doesn't require renouncing Josh Childress
Cons - Not a splash, doesn't necessarily improve the team.

Plan E - Sign AJ for another year
Pros - Cheap option, continue to develop on current lineup, allows investment elsewhere, buys Acie more time to develop
Cons - Least exciting option for the fan base, doesn't improve the lineup

Plan F - Turn the job over to Acie Law
Pros - Cheapest option, helps determine future prospects
Cons - Great performance risk if not ready, still requires signing backups, doesn't necessarily improve overall team

Plan G - Trade for a PG now
Pros - could help make the playoffs this year
Cons - limited choices, requires giving up assets, could limit other free agent moves, takes most other plans of the table

Plan H - Your own plan, please elaborate

[Rod700]

Thank you for posting this. No one has taken a comprehensive look at all the options that are out there. Alot of people seem to trash talk the trade ideas that are posted on this board with responses like: "we need a long term pg solution, not a short term one", "this player isn't enough of an upgrade to warrant giving up Chill", "this player isn't worth his contract", and even just flat out "no." Yet, the people leaving this simplistic remarks certainly don't have any better ideas. They demand that we get a stellar point guard for our expiring contracts, but don't realize how limited our options are, and are thus dissatisfied with every trade they see. It's time to realize there is no dream case scenario and figure out what our best options are. Just becasue a point guard is paid a little too much, or maybe isn't quite as much as what we'd like to get for Chill, doesn't mean he isn't still our best option. Every move has a potential downside, and even if a transaction isn't ideal, if there isn't a better one, it's your best bet.

[Rod700]

I guess I should contribute to the conversation as to what exactly we should do. I like Jose Calderon, but I'm not sure if we could wrench him away from Toronto without paying far too much. I would definitely take a shot at him first though. Beyond that, I don't think the free agent market is shaping up in our favor though. There aren't a lot of point guards worth signing in a starting role. Carlos Arroyo caught my attention back in the Olympics, so I wouldn't mind seeing if we could get him cheap. I also like the idea of looking at Steve Francis for a 3 to 4 year fix. His contract is affordable, and we could get him without having to give up much at all. Houston is flooded with PG's and is desperate for help at PF. Shelden for Francis + fillers makes sense. Even though we couldn't play him till next year due to an injury, we only have to pay him for one season and then decide whether or not to resign him. It's not like we would miss Shelden in the playoffs much anyway, and I think that after his experiences in New York and Houston, Francis would jump at the chance to start for a credible team, even if it means becoming a pass-first point guard.

[conleyorbust]

My favorite topic.

Option A: Not gonna happen, don't necessarilly like it anyway.
Option B: Would love it, the only reason I would endorse not getting a new pg now would be if we were going to make a serious (8 figure) number to Jose and commit to resigning Smith.
Option C: Ellis is loved by GSW; their fans would want to trade for Smith straight up leaving a gaping whole where our shotblocker was and putting a shooting guard into our point guard spot.
Option D: Might prefer to trade for one of these guys now to get a test run and help us move into the playoffs. I doubt BK keeps the current core regardless so I'm assuming that this is what ends up happening. Would help if we knew whether Acie can ever be a starter.
Option E: = BK better be done
Option F: Won't happen while Woody is here, for better or for worse Woody has to win (hopefully its a given that this is his last season here, he probably wants a playoff team on his resume though) and his thought is that it won't happen with Law getting significant minutes. If Law gets the reigns now it'll be because Woody is gone which I wouldn't necessarilly be averse to.
Plan G: I'd love it. Miller, Watson, Arroyo, Udrih, and Duhon should all be pursued today. The last 3 are FAs and if we could land them we would be able to evaluate them for the remainder of the season and they'd help us get in the playoffs. Watson could plug in at the biggest defensive hole in our starting lineup as well as be a solid setup man. Miller would actually be the "missing link" on this team, we would be able to consistently push the pace and play to our strengths and he would be a voice of experience and professionalism in the locker room. This would almost guarantee playoffs.

Therefore I'm a plan G guy with an asterisk if the FO would make a serious run at Calderon. Of course they might just offer him $7m a year, say, "we tried" and call it a day, so I'd prefer going after Dre now and hitting the playoffs with some positive momentum.

[evildallas]

I agree that they may want to pursue one of the main free agents with an offer too low to be serious like 7M for Calderon. I tried to use realistic numbers in my estimates of the free agents. The only way we sign Gilbert is to give him the max and he still may say no to us. Jose and Monta are loved by their respective teams so the only way to get them is to offer to pay out the nose and get them on an offer sheet. Even then you still might not get them because they can be matched. Realistically, investment in any of those 3 PGs will probably might mean that we make a hard choice with one of our young core down the road. There's a limit to the number of 10M+ players one team can employ.

BTW, I didn't write these is order of preference, I just started typing. In the interest of brevity I didn't go into great pro and con depth. For instance, a case against Arenas is that Arenas, Jamison, and Butler didn't make it very far. Would Arenas, Joe Johnson, and Josh Smith do any better?

Another lower price free agent that I didn't list was Louis Williams. Is he ready to step up to Monta Ellis level? How much is it worth to take that gamble?

[conleyorbust]

Louis Williams and Monta Ellis are both great players but neither would fit in well with this group, especially with this coach. Both are penetrating guards who are great at finding their own shots and, while not exactly selfish, aren't great as setup men. Either would be upgrades, but for the money, we'd be better off with a lower key guy whose specialty was passing or defense.

I don't see ASG making the type of offer it would take to get Jose, certainly not Gilbert. Its possible that they have more money than we think and they have been trying to rebuild "the right way" through the draft. That is very unlikely though, I don't imagine most ownerships would be willing to offer two huge contracts to RFAs in one summer.

I honestly don't know what it would take to get Miller but I have to think that ASG will match Smith regardless and having Miller on contract for one more year doesn't put the Hawks in any sort of precarious position regarding the cap. If they are actually too cheap to shell out for Miller, I'd still like to see a run at Watson, Udrih, Arroyo, or even Duhon as all of them can bring the same positives as the current crew but add in another element (Watson and Duhon are solid defenders, Udrih can create his own shot, Arroyo can push the pace).

On another note, Philly posters act like they have already acquired Smith on some of their topics.

[JoshB914]

I like Calderon. But handing the job over to IV (NEXT SEASON) and signing a cheap vet PG (it could be AJ but we should shoot higher to begin) is the best optiion. We have put a lot of stock into IV, we'll see what we've got next season.

[Jamaaliver]

I'm with you, Josh. It seems waaaay too early to be giving up on Acie.

3 months into his career we haven't really seen exactly what he's capable. We are in the middle of a playoff push. We don't exactly have the benefit of letting Acie learn on the court right now.

I do foresee him having the starting job by next season.

Unless it's a veteran all-star PG talent (Jason Kidd anyone?) i think it's too early to be handing the keys to the franchise over to another young PG.

Although Calderon has made me a fan as well.

[CAM]

Calderon would be the best option. He would suit this team and make it better. So that's what I voted. I don't see it happening though. Toronto can't afford to let him go and I doubt we fork up the money required for both him and Josh Smith.

Second best, but most feasable option I feel would be to start Law and sign Duhon. Law still has potential and should be looked at as the future starter. He can start as of next year so he gets used to player with our starting unit, but Duhon would probably get more minutes playing off the bench as our AJ like PG security.

If AJ was happy here to sign cheap, I would be all for bringing him in as a cheap third stringer next year.

[Skyhawk1]

I think we should try ti trade for ine now. A. Miller is my 1st option. I doubt Arenas would take us over pretty much any contenders and the Wizards, a team that can offer him more than anyone else. The Raptors are high on Calderon. They'll match whatever for him, just like we apparently will for J. Smith. M. Ellis isn't a PG. The reason why I think we got to trade for a PG now is due to Law's development. I'm very disappointed with his game. I expected him to be better prepared, more aggressive, and want this PG position more than anything. His confidence isn't just there. The fact Lue has been getting most of his minutes proves how poorly he's played. So, we only have one option, that's a trade.

[killbuckner]

The hawks didn't spend lots on Acie- he was picked outside of the top 10. if you are able to get a quality backup in that spot you have done better than most teams in recent drafts. Acie simply hasn't shown enough to make people think he can be a quality starter next season. At this point it has to be considered a bonus if he does develop into that, it just can't be counted on.

I have advocated trading Marvin for calderon in the past but that simply isn't an option anymore. If I thought the Hawks could get Calderon thats what I would look to do but I just don't think the Raptors will let him go with the injury stuff hanging over him.

Likewise I don't think that the Hawks have any reaslitic shot at Arenas or Ellis.

I have been the one talking Andre Miller for a long time- thats still what I would do.

[Jamaaliver]

Acie will dominate. It's early. How can he learn or gain confidence without playing time. Remember how bad J Smoove, Marvin and Childress looked as rookies? Now look at how they've developed.

Even T-Mac, KG, Kobe, Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups, Jose Calderon took time to develop. Plus PG is the hardest position in basketball.

Give him time.

[killbuckner]

Jamallover- Acie has been probably the worst PG in the league this season. He could dramatically improve and still just be an OK backup. Seriously out of 298 NBA players on pace to play over 500 minutes he has the 4th worst true shooting percentage. This from a guy who was a 4 year player in college and was drafted because of his scoring ability.

[CWell]

I think we should try ti trade for ine now. A. Miller is my 1st option. I doubt Arenas would take us over pretty much any contenders and the Wizards, a team that can offer him more than anyone else. The Raptors are high on Calderon. They'll match whatever for him, just like we apparently will for J. Smith. M. Ellis isn't a PG. The reason why I think we got to trade for a PG now is due to Law's development. I'm very disappointed with his game. I expected him to be better prepared, more aggressive, and want this PG position more than anything. His confidence isn't just there. The fact Lue has been getting most of his minutes proves how poorly he's played. So, we only have one option, that's a trade.

um no that just proves how horrible our coach is.especially now,Acie has been playing alot better lately and he got rewarded with the bench.

[conleyorbust]

I'm with you, Josh. It seems waaaay too early to be giving up on Acie.

3 months into his career we haven't really seen exactly what he's capable. We are in the middle of a playoff push. We don't exactly have the benefit of letting Acie learn on the court right now.

I do foresee him having the starting job by next season.

Unless it's a veteran all-star PG talent (Jason Kidd anyone?) i think it's too early to be handing the keys to the franchise over to another young PG.

Although Calderon has made me a fan as well.

I don't think Calderon is a realistic option but it wouldn't necessarilly be "giving up on Acie". To this point Acie hasn't shown us that he will ever be nearly as effective as Jose. It it were possible to get a player that complemented our team as well as Calderon would, I'd say do it.

That being said, I don't see it happening. Personally, I think Kidd would be a ridiculous signing for this franchise. He makes a boatload of money and wouldn't put us over the top in the next two years which is probably the amount of time he has left in his body (look, I know he is still impressive but he is obviously in decline and he is already old).

I'd like to see this team make a push for this season and it wouldn't require us giving up our core to do so. If we could get a player of Miller's caliber without giving up our core, we have to do it. This franchise hasn't had real fan support in ages and making the playoffs by default isn't the way to gain it back. Even a guy like Watson or Arroyo could help get this team to the next level.

Law still has time but having another guy on board for the future (AJ and Lue are gone soon, remember?) will help. Acie is 23, older than most rookies, Shelden showed flashes last season with 17 rebound games and such. Flashes don't always accurately predict the future. I'm not saying Acie will be as bad as Shelden, I think he has many more tools. I'm just saying that we can't bank on Acie at this point and there is no reason to not make a move this season just because we took him with a late lottery pick.

[CWell]

The hawks didn't spend lots on Acie- he was picked outside of the top 10. if you are able to get a quality backup in that spot you have done better than most teams in recent drafts. Acie simply hasn't shown enough to make people think he can be a quality starter next season. At this point it has to be considered a bonus if he does develop into that, it just can't be counted on.

I have advocated trading Marvin for calderon in the past but that simply isn't an option anymore. If I thought the Hawks could get Calderon thats what I would look to do but I just don't think the Raptors will let him go with the injury stuff hanging over him.

Likewise I don't think that the Hawks have any reaslitic shot at Arenas or Ellis.

I have been the one talking Andre Miller for a long time- thats still what I would do.

he's shown me enough as well as mike woodson to know the situation and having seen young players coming up before.Acie will be fine.Deron Williams looked like a totally different player his 2nd year,beginning in the summer league.I bet he'll be one of the guys putting on a show at the rookie-sophomore game next year.

[tontoz]

The only concern i had about Acie coming into the season was his outside shot and that is still my only concern. He has shown that he can break down the defense easily and find the open man. He just needs to hit his open jumpers.

It is funny but Calderon couldn't shoot a lick in his rookie year. He shot 16% from 3. Now he is shooting 46% from 3.

I don't see any chance of getting him though.

[CWell]

The only concern i had about Acie coming into the season was his outside shot and that is still my only concern. He has shown that he can break down the defense easily and find the open man. He just needs to hit his open jumpers.

It is funny but Calderon couldn't shoot a lick in his rookie year. He shot 16% from 3. Now he is shooting 46% from 3.

I don't see any chance of getting him though.

yeah.I think it's funny how guys biggest problem with him is him missing shots.DUMB reason to be doubting someones future only a few months into his career with no consistent minutes.He'll look like a totally different player next year,starting with the summer league,everyone does pretty much.

[raleigh]

My preference is to acquire a relatively inexpensive PG to allow Acie another year or two to adjust to the speed of the NBA before the Hawks make a decision on him.

I like Duhon, Watson, and Blake.

[killbuckner]

mrhonline- are you OK with missing the playoffs for the next 2 seasons in order to see what the Hawks have in Acie?