ATL / Portland Pondering

[evildallas]

Atlanta sends
Marvin Williams
Zaza Pachulia

Portland sends back
Martell Webster (or James Jones)
Joel Pryzbilla
#13 pick
#36 pick


Portland upgrades small forward and clears Pryzbilla's contract.

Atlanta gets a backup defensive 7 foot C, a SF who shoots the 3 to stretch the floor (either Webster or Jones does this), at #13 we can add either a project C or PG if one falls, at #36 we can take a chance on a bruising PF or Bill Walker if available.

Portland gives up so much quantity because they are getting the best player in the deal and cap flexibility in the C swap. I acknowledge Marvin is the best player in the deal now, but I still have my doubts on him stepping up to be a good long term investment for us. He may explode for them, but I doubt it. More likely he'll be a more complete SF than anyone else on their roster.

The draft picks:
It's a deep draft that is a little short on sure bet superstars. #13 seems to be a good spot to get a value pick because #7-#20 are considered tossups. #13 should be high enough to get our pick of the project Cs like DeAndre Jordan, Koufas, McGee, or Robin Lopez. An alternative would might be Westbrook or Augustin falling to there. Another possibility would might be Joe Alexander as a Marvin replacement at a fraction of the price. Personally, I don't think you can go wrong any of the 3 routes. A PG like Augustin or Westbrook would push Law (or replace) and give insurance for Bibby leaving at the end of the year. A project C wouldn't have to play immediately because of our depth at the position (Al, Pryz, Andersen, Solomon). A late lottery C can develop like Bynum or disappear like Swift, but it's a relatively cheap investment salary-wise and for a change isn't a desperate need. Joe Alexander would be an inexpensive Marvin replacement, which is my least favorite option. He has skills though and seems to have better intensity.

At #36 you can catch a player who falls like Bill Walker, Mario Chalmers, Ryan Anderson , Devon Hardin or an undersized, bruising PF like Joey Dorsey or DJ White. If used wisely you can get a contributor to the rotation on the cheap. Bill Walker still seems like a steal to me because of the injuries, but if we go big at #13 it might be hard to pass on a Mario Chalmers or Ty Lawson should they be there at #36 as PG insurance. If we go PG at #13 and don't have an option on Walker, a PF like Anderson, Hardin, Dorsey, or White could fill a needed role on the roster.

Possible new roster:
Mike Bibby/Acie Law
Joe Johnson/Bill Walker/Mario West
Josh Childress/Martell Webster/Jeremy Richardson
Josh Smith/David Andersen
Al Horford/Joel Pryzbilla/Solomon Jones/DeAndre Jordan

Childress in the starting lineup gives us an intangibles guy while the likes of Webster, Andersen, and Walker coming of the bench gives our 2nd unit some serious offensive punch. Pryzbilla at backup C really improves our overall team D by maintaining shot blocking when Smith is off the court.

Feel free to substitute your own preferences on the picks when evaluating. Am I selling out Marvin too cheap? Is Pryzbilla too expensive? If so, would taking out Pryz, #36, and Zaza and putting in Jarrett Jack make the trade better?

[killbuckner]

I wouldn't want to touch Marvin if I were the Blazers GM- he counts as a max contract next offseason when they are trying to be able to have big dollars in FA.

[CWell]

great trade.seems too good to be true though.

[HoopsGuru25]

I'd do that trade(although you probably need to throw in a future 1st to Portland to be fair). Pryzbilla is the type of player the Hawks have lacked since Theo Ratliff was healthy. I have little interest in burying the 13th and 36th picks on the bench though. I'd try to package those picks for TJ Ford if possible.

[perthwildcat]

I think your on the right track with this deal...

Im of the belief SF should be one of the easier positions to fill... Looking back most Championship teams had stars at the other positions and a good solid role player at SF...

Smith and Horford are our future...

And we upgrade depth...

Although with our Gms track record of drafting centers

[Harry10]

I think your on the right track with this deal...

Im of the belief SF should be one of the easier positions to fill... Looking back most Championship teams had stars at the other positions and a good solid role player at SF...

Smith and Horford are our future...

And we upgrade depth...

Although with our Gms track record of drafting centers

was Bird the last super star champion SF?

[perthwildcat]

was Bird the last super star champion SF?

?? Dunno probably...

Im just thinking of the teams in the last 10-15 years and i cant think of many championship teams where the teams built around the SF spot...

[Harry10]

Barkley came close.

i can't even think of a super star champion PF, it just depends how you view Duncan.

this also makes me think that Lebron might be the next Dominique, but not in a good way.

[evildallas]

Barkley played more PF (even at 6'4"). Pippen was probably the top SF on championship teams, but San Antonio, Miami, LA, Detroit, Houston, Detroit (90-91) all invested relatively lightly in SF. Prior to that you have James Worthy and Larry Bird as title winning, big time SFs.

Normally the big time wing is in the SG position (Ginobli, Wade, Kobe, Jordan, Dumars). Even Houston got more from Vernon Maxwell in their title years than Mario Elie at SF. Earlier San Antonio teams were all about the big 2 and the wing wasn't the thing.

[Skyhawk1]

That'd be a great deal for the Hawks. I'd love for it to happen, then we could draft J. Alexander with the 13th pick if he's still there, which I think would be a bargain.

[evildallas]

My trade suggestion is more about balancing skill sets on the team than it is about abandoning SF for less expense. We don't have a defensive force in the middle when Josh is on the bench making our defense ineffective (there is always a hope that Solomon develops). Marvin doesn't stretch the court enough (although that could develop). The trade improves both of those areas and gives us some additional pieces in form of the picks.

The picks aren't about filling a starting role this year or even major rotation role. If we have that big of a hole then we aren't a true playoff team (you should be pleasantly surprised by their contributions not dependent on them). They also aren't about getting younger. I'd love more vets, but they don't come around cheaply until you look like the best bet for them to get a ring and we aren't there yet. The picks are to strengthen the bench even if not in the active rotation and are an attempt to foster full roster development. They are about cap management and having options to improve the team down the road.

I'm open to various possibilities with them because there is more than one way to skin a cat. When a GM singles in a specific course of action without considering alternatives you wind up with Shelden Williams and Speedy Claxton on your roster instead of Brandon Roy and Reggie Evans. If the right PG is available at #13 I would go that route with an eye on after Bibby. Of course, if you have 2 late lottery picks at PG you are committed to not extending Bibby (I still don't think a fair price that appeals to both sides could be reached).

If not that route, I take the risk on the big who I feel can become a stud with the understanding that it won't happen right away (I'm looking for double-double stats in year 3 or 4 provided the minutes are available like Bynum and Biedrins have done). I'd work them all out and interview each one in hopes of making the right decision. If the deal didn't have Pryzbilla in it I would probably don't swing for the fences and play it safe on Robin Lopez because I think he could step in and be that backup C right away and give some rebounds and blocks.

That 2nd rounder gives a perfect compliment to the lottery pick. It could be a serviceable PG at a discount (I expect Mario Chalmers and Ty Lawson to drop into that range) or instant contribution PF like Dorsey or White. However, it could be a pure value pick which is what I think Walker is. He was projected as a top 10 talent before his injury (some had him top 5). He lost a season to injury and played well last year although obviously not fully recovered. I think his rookie year will show some flashes, but still be a time of working back to where he needs to be. In year 2 I think he'll be a force. If I'm right he'll be a low dollar, big payoff player which is what most people hope to find in round 2.

[evildallas]

That'd be a great deal for the Hawks. I'd love for it to happen, then we could draft J. Alexander with the 13th pick if he's still there, which I think would be a bargain.

While I've been pushing other guys at #13, that is one way to go and I agree that he'd be a bargain there and a strong potential stud. One of the reasons I am so keen on moving Marvin is that I saw more recognizable signs of stardom out of Thaddeus Young as a rookie for Philly than I did from Marvin as a 3rd year player. Joe Alexander strikes me as the next person in that mold with good physical skills like Marvin but with more drive and attitude. Getting good production from that rookie deal will help offset the big contracts at SG, PF, and PG we have this year and he'd still be under rookie deal when we extend Al.

Like I said there is more than one way to build a winner.

[Village Idiot]

As a Portland fan this makes little sense.

Przybilla > Zaza
Marvin = Outlaw = Webster
13 + 36> nothing

I like Marvin Williams a lot and think he'd fit in but I don't think this is a good deal for Portland.

Przybilla, s+t Jones, Jack

for

Marvin and Zaza

is the best offer we'd make if and only if we have another deal lined up with one of Outlaw or Webster going out in a deal to get a starting PG.

[killbuckner]

Marvin is worth more than Webster, he isn't worth a lottery pick more. I do think the Blazers would give up something to trade Przybilla for Zaza just so they can clear more money under the cap next offseason.

[Village Idiot]

Marvin is worth more than Webster, he isn't worth a lottery pick more. I do think the Blazers would give up something to trade Przybilla for Zaza just so they can clear more money under the cap next offseason.

Marvin is probably a slightly better all-round player but Webster is an outstanding 3pt shooter which is more valuable to Portland with Oden and Aldridge in the low-post.

By all accounts Portland isn't looking to trade Przybilla and certainly aren't going to add assets to move him. His contract is reasonable commensurate to production and next year will in all probability be the best back-up C in the NBA.

[killbuckner]

Prz has a reasonable contract, but the Blazers would almost certainly rather have 6 million in caproom. I don't think they would give up something big, but I do think they would toss in a second round pick or some cash to get someone to take him for an expiring contract.

[Village Idiot]

I disagree. Portland will have plenty of cap-space with or without Przybilla.

[td00]

Please explain how Portland has cap room? Did you see their list of salaries?

Steve Francis - $17.1M
Raef Lafrentz - $12.7M
Darius Miles - $9M
Pryz - $6M w/2 more years at $6.8M & $7.4M

I see $75M committed for a roughly $58M salary cap. Am I missing something?

Regarding a trade with Portland: Evil has made a couple of good suggestions, but they look very favorable only to the Hawks IMO. I don't think Marvin/Zaza brings that much value to get 2 draft picks along with Pryz and Webster. Roster wise, I know the Blazers need to move some salary and preferably it would be the expiring contract of Lafrentz and Miles, who is all but finished in the league. Those 2 contracts does get you under the cap and they then have a good nucleus to work with to compete for a playoff spot.

To me, and this is from the Hawks' prospective, unless you get a SF who is a defensive presence, a la Artest or Prince, or unless Marvin starts to become a defensive presence (I haven't seen much of that so far), this team probably isn't going to go much further than Round 1 or 2. Orlando has the same dilemna. They didn't match up well with Detroit, but both the Hawks and Magic need to inherit a defensive stopper at the SF.

The analogies about very few great SF was an excellent point to what is needed here in Atlanta. While Marvin has good mid-range skills, he lacks in the 2-3 areas we need improvement:

- 3 pt threat
- strong rebounding (Rondo gets better numbers than Marvin, who averages 4 measly rebounds)
- our team's defensive presence

This to me is what we are missing. I like the Robin Lopez potential, but you gotta get a pick for that to happen. Is Aaron Gray available or someone who came out the last 2 years and really hasn't gotten a lot of time to show his skills?

Improving our 3 pt strategy and getting a stopper is key here. Do you take a risk and go with Artest? I wish that were possible, but the Bibby trade null and voids that potential move I'm sure. Artest makes more sense for this team going forward than any other SF out there.

So, outside of that, we probably are going to have to take on a bad contract to get someone of value to put into the starting lineup, whether we move Smoove to the 3 and increase the size of the frontline.

Could Damien Wilkins or Adrian Griffin in small spurts be an option and how do you think he would do with this group (note that neither are 3 pt threats)? I have seen flashes of Wilkins and he may fit here well. I'm not sure how many minutes he would be productive however.
Several Golden State players are up for new contracts as well. Perhaps Marvin or Chills could fit in well on the bay? Personally, I could see Matt Barnes or O'Bryant for frontcourt depth would be useful here.

All the names above are from West Coast teams that seem to have more depth than the East teams. I think it is more likely we could find options there instead of say the Wizards or Pistons. It is very hard to get a East team to help you improve your team when you have to match up with them so many times during the year.

[massey1992]

Not going to happen for the Blazers.

[killbuckner]

td- the blazers are set to be under the cap next offseason when Lafrentz, Miles, and Francis are all removed.