RealGM

Just how many of these last year contract guys actually get moved in their restricted year? There are so many out there that aren't coming to terms, and I was just wondering how serious GMs/owners would be to present an offer for them.
Do they just prefer to let them run out their contract and then put them under serious consideration? A quick list of them:

Smoove
Chills
Okafor
Iguodala
Deng
Gordon
Monta Ellis
Biedrins

I remember the JJ scenario, but he wasn't a franchise player either when that deal took place. The Hawk probably don't want to revisit that sceario again.

only one that will prob get moved is gordon and that's more because of his team lucking into the number one pick than anything.

all of these teams have the space to pay their players, and i think that the GM's have informally come together and said that they aren't having their teams ruined by agents that are trying to drive up prices for players. they'll rather have this go into august than have to suffer through 5 years of a bad contract.

I still think that Childress is pretty likely to take the QO this season. Its a good amount of money and he can hit FA again next season as an unrestricted free agent. And I just can't imagine that he would lack for MLE offers next season.

if he wants the MLE then he might as well sign with the hawks. the only reason he should take the QO is if he wants over 7-8 mil a season.

I believe he will think he can get more next offseason as an UFA. I just mention his MLE offers next season to mean that he doesn't have much risk in taking the QO. If he can always get the MLE but has the potential to get more next offseason then he doesn't have much reason to settle for his worst case scenario this offseason.

I thought I would chime in with their qualifying offers

Smoove 3.167M
Chills 4.844M
Okafor 7.082M
Iguodala 3.800M
Deng 4.452M
Gordon 6.404M
Monta Ellis 1.001M
Biedrins 3.609M

With the MLE at 5.58M, I wouldn't expect any of them to sign an offer sheet for that because it would be 3-5 years at that approx. price level. Childress can sign for 1 year at 4.84M and possibly make more than the MLE next offseason or at least make the MLE with the ability to determine his destination. For that matter, I don't understand why Ben Gordon hasn't already just signed for the QO. He doesn't have anyone bidding his value up, so he's pretty much in the same boat as Childress.
The only other guy I think the QO helps is Okafor. Charlotte can't low ball him or he could take the 7M and be free next year to negotiate with anyone. Of course he has greater health issues than anyone else on the list. The other guys have low enough qualifying offers that it helps the team in negotiating something in the 7-10M range for starting salary. It's a lot to pass on 45-65M in salary over 5 years to play for less than 4M for 1 year now to gain your freedom. You could get injured or have a bad season and risk having to settle for less overall.

Good input. Another factor in the Gordon situation is that he might not get the opportunity/minutes that he wants on the Bulls next season.