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the magic number seems to be 10 Million

i think fair market value is 8 Million, but fair market value means nothing if one team is willing to over pay, and i can imagine one bad team out their who will make a 10 Million offer for Marvlous.

you need to specify whether you are talking about averaging 10 million a year or starting at 10 million and raising up from there. If you are talking about averaging 8 million a year then thats a 6 year 48 million dollar deal which starts at 6.4 million. Remember that Marvin's QO is 7.3 million dollars which gives him a lot of leverage. If you are talking about 8 million a year starting out then thats the 6 year 60 million dollar contract.

8M isn't going to be enough for the Hawks to keep him. He'll want Deng's, Iguodalla's type of money. I do not think he's worth it, just like these two guys I mentioned are not, but that's what happens when let a guy become a RFA.

We'll have to wait and see which teams have money. Of the teams that currently have money, only Portland has any kind of need at SF, and even that is debatable.

Detroit - Prince
Memphis - Gay
OKC - Durant

I personally think the Hawks should offer a five-year deal starting around $7M (slightly below his QO) and see what other teams do. It helps that Marion, Artest, and Turkoglu are unrestricted FA's.

I think the Hawks are in position to play hardball with Marvin. However he is definitely helping his case by hitting crunch time 3s and hitting the boards.

Last night he was 2-5 from 3 and i couldn't help but feel like he was off.

Here's a nightmare scenario: what if Marvin decides he's better suited for the 4? What if Marvelous, Smoove AND Horford turn out to be PFs?

I know our defense is being lauded for our versatility, that is, because we have so many players the same height who can rotate easily. Horford can defend 5/4. Smoove can defend 3/4/5. Marvelous can defend 2/3/4. Let's not forget Joe, who can defend 1/2/3/4.

Buuuuut, what if MW, JS AND AH were each to decide that his career goals would be better served by playing PF? If that were to become the case, Marvin might leave no matter what we did.

parson wrote:Here's a nightmare scenario: what if Marvin decides he's better suited for the 4? What if Marvelous, Smoove AND Horford turn out to be PFs?

I know our defense is being lauded for our versatility, that is, because we have so many players the same height who can rotate easily. Horford can defend 5/4. Smoove can defend 3/4/5. Marvelous can defend 2/3/4. Let's not forget Joe, who can defend 1/2/3/4.

Buuuuut, what if MW, JS AND AH were each to decide that his career goals would be better served by playing PF? If that were to become the case, Marvin might leave no matter what we did.

Uh..i am definitely not feeling the logic on this one. Marvin's big improvement has been his 3 pt shooting so i don't see how that would make him better suited at the 4. He still struggles with contact and can't finish inside very well. He still gets pushed around by bigger players.

Plus he is restricted.

I just don't see what Marvin would gain by signing a "reasonable" contract. He would be far better off taking the 1 year QO at 7.3 million dollars and then hitting UFA in an offseason when everyone is dying to get caproom - and to spend it on players who likely will go elsewhere. He would be positioned to get severely overpaid after someone else misses out on plan A.

killbuckner wrote:I just don't see what Marvin would gain by signing a "reasonable" contract. He would be far better off taking the 1 year QO at 7.3 million dollars and then hitting UFA in an offseason when everyone is dying to get caproom - and to spend it on players who likely will go elsewhere. He would be positioned to get severely overpaid after someone else misses out on plan A.

I echo killbuckner's sentiment. If the Hawks play hard ball with Marvin, he could just sign the 7.3M QO and then be unrestricted at the same time as LeBron, Wade, and Bosh. With so many saving cap space for a big free agent play that year there will undoubtedly be teams with cash forced to adopt a plan B. Marvin could be in line for a big payday as a consolation price for a team that misses out on LeBron, etc. if his game continues to improve. Of course there is a lot of season left to establish Marvin's value long term for both him and the Hawks. That'll go a long way in determining what the market is for Marvin this off-season.

tontoz wrote:Uh..i am definitely not feeling the logic on this one. Marvin's big improvement has been his 3 pt shooting so i don't see how that would make him better suited at the 4. He still struggles with contact and can't finish inside very well. He still gets pushed around by bigger players.

Plus he is restricted.

I was really just making small talk. But the point was that Marvin has played better at the 4 - both in these last 2 games and during the few times we've played him at the 4 in the last few years. His ballhandling problems aren't so noticeable when he's being defended by PFs and he has the same quickness advantages against them as Smoove has. He has rebounded much, much better while playing the 4, as well. I imagine that he never played SF until he became a pro.

Plus Marvin has a wider frame than Smoove and will probably end up bigger. He's already taller by about 1/2 of an inch.

My point wasn't that we should play him at the 4, but rather that he MIGHT think his value was greater there.

They, all THREE of them, may decide that their value would be greater playing the 4. Then what?

then you tell one of them to play center, one of them to play SF, and the other to play PF and what are they going to do about it? Or you just stop calling them PF, SF, and CEnter and just say you have 3 forwards on your team.

parson wrote:

tontoz wrote:Uh..i am definitely not feeling the logic on this one. Marvin's big improvement has been his 3 pt shooting so i don't see how that would make him better suited at the 4. He still struggles with contact and can't finish inside very well. He still gets pushed around by bigger players.

Plus he is restricted.

I was really just making small talk. But the point was that Marvin has played better at the 4 - both in these last 2 games and during the few times we've played him at the 4 in the last few years. His ballhandling problems aren't so noticeable when he's being defended by PFs and he has the same quickness advantages against them as Smoove has. He has rebounded much, much better while playing the 4, as well. I imagine that he never played SF until he became a pro.

Plus Marvin has a wider frame than Smoove and will probably end up bigger. He's already taller by about 1/2 of an inch.

My point wasn't that we should play him at the 4, but rather that he MIGHT think his value was greater there.

They, all THREE of them, may decide that their value would be greater playing the 4. Then what?

Marvin's results at the 4 have been mixed. Sure he is scoring more but i think that is because the Hawks have played weak teams lately and Smith has been out so there are more shots available. But he can't guard post players at all. I see him as a natural 3 who should play the 4 only in desperate times or against small lineups.

As far as Smith and Horford go the problem is a little stickier because they are both clearly better suited for the 4. If Horford was able to make other teams pay by taking advantage of bigger, slower players then it wouldn't be as much of a problem. But there is no question in my mind that the Hawks needs more size, if for nothing else than to compliment those two.

I certainly would look to draft a center if one is available. If not i would look to maybe sign Foster or Rasho next summer, or maybe SNT Bibby to the Cavs for Varejao. Making a move like that and letting Zaza go would shore up the Hawks interior D and rebounding problems.

However it is certainly possible that a choice will have to be made down the road between Smith and Horford. right now i am 100% in the Smith camp.

If you make the sample size larger than 2 games, Marv has been weak at the 4. The offense is a little better but he is a weak team defender, a weak post defender, and is generally a weak rebounder (although I'm happy he decided to have two of his best rebounding games ever, we needed them).

Sund almost certainly plays hardball with Marvin this year. It is his pattern as a GM which he followed last year with Smith and Childress. Restricted free agency gives teams a big advantage, few players manage to do what CHildress did and turn the tables on a team. I expect Sund to wait out Marvin, wait for someone to sign him to reasonable deal, and then match it.