Claxton impact on ATL 09' summer

[D21]

Boozer announcing he'll opt out made me think about next summer possibilities for the Hawks.
I don't know what kind of money Boozer wants (even if I can imagine...), and not sure he would be the best F.A. for ATL. but I wanted to see if it was possible to sign a solid player like him.

So, for 2009 summer, the guaranteed contracts counting against the cap are:

$14,976,754 Joe Johnson
$10,800,000 Josh Smith
$4,307,640 Al Horford
$2,500,000 Maurice Evans
$2,216,160 Acie Law
$855,189 Randolph Morris

Total: 35,655,743

If we need a big, better than Zaza, he will be released, so no cap hold.

Bibby will have a huge cap hold, but if ATL choose to keep him, he can be sign in ASAP to a new contract, and if first year will be his new amount counting against the cap.
The way he's palying now, no doubt some teams will be offering MLE contract. So to get him ASAP, ATL need to pay him more, maybe $1-2M more than MLE.
MLE will certainly be at about $5.8M, so it would need $7M or more to sign him in early July. But more than a higher salary for two or three years, he migt seek a 5yrs contract to get more guaranteed money.
So let's say a $40M/5yrs starting at $6,611,570 would make it happen.

Now, Marvin: he won't get the same money than Smith, but keep in mind that a 45M/5yrs only start at the same salary than his Q.O., so Marvin might choose it and see what happen in 2010 summer when lots of teams will have room.
But let's say he can sign for 50M/5yrs, starting at $8,264,462.

With Bibby and Marvin added, it gives a total of: 50,531,775

It can be higher, or lower, but fact is that ATL has a possibility to get $10.5M of ca room (salary cap should be at about $61M next year), so enough to start a 8% increased 60M/5yrs contract, certainly not enough for Boozer, but enough for other F.A.

It would also need to renounce to Childress rights, AND... have Speedy retired for medical reasons.

We can't know if Bibby and Marvin would agree to sign ASAP and for this kind of money, there are also few interesting F.A. in 2009 compared to 2010, but for sure, keeping Speedy adds 5,209,454 and make cap room lower than the MLE.

Now, we know that Speedy is definitely killing our flexibility for the 2009 F.A. market

[raleigh]

There are those who are expecting the cap to drop a bit this coming summer at worst, to stay the same at best.

Also, don't forget Zaza's cap hold and the draft pick...

[D21]

Even if the cap stays at the same level, Speedy's contract still hurts.
About Zaza, I did not forget (but thought he would be released in this case where ATL would sign a big).

But you're right on the the pick, I forgot

[killbuckner]

This is based on the idea that Marvin would sign a "reasonable" contract early in FA. HE has absolutely no reason to do so. He can wait and see if some team who misses out on their first target will overpay him as plan B. Or if he doesn't get any offer to his liking he can take the QO and hit UFA next offseason (which is what I would do unless I got at least Josh Smith money).

[raleigh]

This is based on the idea that Marvin would sign a "reasonable" contract early in FA. HE has absolutely no reason to do so. He can wait and see if some team who misses out on their first target will overpay him as plan B. Or if he doesn't get any offer to his liking he can take the QO and hit UFA next offseason (which is what I would do unless I got at least Josh Smith money).

What team currently under the cap would need him other than Portland, though. (And even Portland has Webster).

[killbuckner]

Every season at the trade deadline teams that are out of it break it apart to clear caproom. We'll see then who has caproom for this offseason. If marvin continues to be a 3 point threat there are a whole lot more teams that could use him. And I don't think that anyone is going to clear space for Marvin- I just think that if they miss out on their primary target Marvin might get offered that money as a plan B. I still think most likely is that Marvin doesn't get any "knock your socks off" offer and he will just take his 7+ million dollar QO and then hit FA in 2010 as an unrestricted FA in the offseason where many teams are clearing caproom and their fans are going to be really pissed off if they don't do SOMETHING

[raleigh]

I don't think we need to wait until then to know what teams to be on the lookout for. We can easily handicap things now.

Charlotte - Maybe if they trade Wallace and Felton
Detroit - Only if they traded Prince
GS - No way
Indy - No way
LA Clippers - Not likely, with Thornton there
Memphis - Rudy Gay
Miami - Beasley and the whole at PG come first
Minny - Brewer + Miller
NJ - Only if they traded Carter
OKC - Durant & Green
Portland - Webster + Outlaw
Sacramento - Garcia
Utah - too many cap holds

Of the teams that could potentially have cap space, only Portland is currently a credible option. Draft day trades could change a few priorities...

[killbuckner]

I mean just from your list you would really be surprised if Minnesota, Charlotte, or Sacramento went after him? Brewer and Garcia haven't done anything to make people think they are legitimate starters in this league. Who knows what Charlotte is going to do. I think everyone see's beasley's future at PF and not SF.

[john2jer]

If this is in reference to Marvin Williams, he's starting to peak people's interest in Minnesota. Both Brewer and Miller are shooting guards. Brewer was actually playing much improved this year before going down with an ACL tear. The hope is that it was early enough in the year that he'll be fine next season with confidence. Next year will be his third year, so I'm not sure if he's eligible for the summer league, but it would definitely help him.

I personally hope Minnesota can get Marvin Williams, as he'd fit perfectly.

Ignoring what happens in the draft as that's a crapshoot, especially for Minnesota, although Thabeet would be ideal in this situation.

C - Jefferson/Madsen
PF - Love/Smith
SF - Williams/Gomes
SG - Miller/Brewer
PG - Foye/Telfair

So that actually goes against what both the last two posts say. Brewer has done something to show he could be what the Wolves hoped for when drafting him, and Marvin Williams would fit perfect even with Miller and Brewer. Then let's say the Wolves draft Thabeet, they can either move Craig Smith or keep him as the 4th post, doesn't matter. We'd have a very versatile line-up considering Williams/Gomes can play the 3 or 4, Jefferson/Love can play the 4 or 5, Brewer/Miller can play the 2 or 3.

So legitimately, what do you think Williams gets for an offer this off-season? A Mike Miller like contract in the 8-10mil range? Little more because of his age and experience, so 9-12mil? I'd take him at 50mil/5 years and be more than happy because the Wolves would have room in 2010 to sign someone else in the 13mil/year range.

[HMFFL]

Don't forget about how we stand attendance wise. The ASG as a ownership will most likely keep a close eye on this and it may reflect on how they handle free agency or how they deal with any contract extensions. I don't like what I'm seeing attendance wise right now.

2009 Attendance

[raleigh]

I mean just from your list you would really be surprised if Minnesota, Charlotte, or Sacramento went after him? Brewer and Garcia haven't done anything to make people think they are legitimate starters in this league. Who knows what Charlotte is going to do. I think everyone see's beasley's future at PF and not SF.

Minnesota doesn't have the money yet, but it sounds like there may be interest.

Charlotte and Sacramento have more pressing issues...

[NDaATL]

Boozers' not a good fit here IMO. Our offense would get better but our defense would get much worse because Boozer is a terrible defender. Plus, Boozer benefits from having a long range shooting center like Okur next to him and Deron as his PG. I honestly think we'd get worse.

[JoshB914]

Don't forget about how we stand attendance wise. The ASG as a ownership will most likely keep a close eye on this and it may reflect on how they handle free agency or how they deal with any contract extensions. I don't like what I'm seeing attendance wise right now.

2009 Attendance

Still we have improved our attendance steadily every season. If we keep winning I think we end up in the top half of the league in that category. I would hope that ASG would realize that if our current core continues to have success, that it will pay dividends at the box office for years to come.

[NDaATL]

Don't forget about how we stand attendance wise. The ASG as a ownership will most likely keep a close eye on this and it may reflect on how they handle free agency or how they deal with any contract extensions. I don't like what I'm seeing attendance wise right now.

2009 Attendance

Still we have improved our attendance steadily every season. If we keep winning I think we end up in the top half of the league in that category. I would hope that ASG would realize that if our current core continues to have success, that it will pay dividends at the box office for years to come.

The NBA uses profit sharing anyway. Home teams only keep about 60% of their attendance sales, and all of the luxury suites sales. The rest is shared throughout the NBA. The national TV contracts, merchandise sales, and arena sales are ALL shared with every team in the NBA. This is why owners like Donald Sterling had no incentive to improve his team because he could still make a ton of money by being cheap.

My point is that the ASG is making money and this shouldn't be an excuse.

[J-Rich-]

what happened to this dude? he was an up and comming pg with warriors until he was traded for baron and then he just disappeared

[lunarblues]

speedy always had bad knees. nuff said.