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82Games.com crunches the draft

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evildallas
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82Games.com crunches the draft 

Post#1 » by evildallas » Thu Mar 26, 2009 1:57 am

82Games has a mini-series of articles number crunching of 20 years of picks from 1989-2008. There are various articles. Here are some highlights to spark discusion.

Team Rankings - Before you follow the link take a guess where the Hawks rank.
http://www.82games.com/bestdraftingteams.htm

Bargains and Busts - Take a guess where Shelden Williams ranks.
http://www.82games.com/starsandbusts.htm

Performance by College - No Duke is not last, but they aren't very good.
http://www.82games.com/collegedraftpicks.htm

In all honesty, I expected Duke to be near the bottom because of Jay Williams and Bobby Hurley's accident shortened careers and the flops of William Avery, Trajan Langdon, Shelden Williams, and JJ Redick.
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Re: 82Games.com crunches the draft 

Post#2 » by evildallas » Fri Mar 27, 2009 8:57 am


Worst Value Picks 1989-2008 Career Stats vs. Expected Perf.
Player Season Pick G Min PTS REB AST RTG G Min PTS REB AST RTG
Shelden Williams 2006 5 167 14.9 4.7 4.2 0.4 9.3 -385 -13.8 -8.7 -0.7 -2.3 -11.8


I wanted to add in this little tidbit from http://www.82games.com/bestnbadraftyear.htm:

By their rating system, Shelden the 8th most disappointing pick in terms of expected performance actually has yet to rate out as a total bust. He's rated as deep bench while Sene and O'Bryant are full-fledged busts based on current production.

To recap a few principles, since B-R provides career games, and then per game points, rebounds, assists and minutes, I have gone with an admittedly highly simplistic look on things with:
Rating = points/game + rebounds/game + assists/game

Why use this definition? It's the data I have easily on hand, which while not a good player rating system is a decent wag for these purposes. Then I group players as follows (including a new category for this):

* Superstar -- 30+ rating
* Star -- 20+ rating
* Solid -- 15 to 19.9
* Role Player -- 10 to14.9
* Deep Bench -- 5 to 9.9
* Complete Bust -- less than 5
* DNP -- (never played in the NBA)
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Re: 82Games.com crunches the draft 

Post#3 » by conleyorbust » Fri Mar 27, 2009 4:26 pm

I'm OK with the sort of rough qualitative aspect of it, although even though PER/eff aren't perfect they are probably better suited for this... what I'd love to see is more of a "opportunity cost" sort of thing thrown in there so that a team does in fact get punished for picking a good player if a great one was available. I'd also like to see them deal with the "player development" issue a little better because it seems like a player that is traded during his career and then blows up is a credit to the drafting team due to "player development" even though it probably shouldn't be.

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