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He will be an UR FA at the end of next season. Many (attractive market) teams will free up $ to go after one of the best FA crops ever. JJ, as a second tier of that group will be lured by a big offer; probably too big. It seems that either he leaves or we have to match a too big offer.

Will he sign before becoming unristricted at a reasonable amount ? I doubt it.

Should we try to move JJ this off-season or do we risk this senario playing out and being left with nothing but cap space ?

I've posted this tidbit in a couple different places already, but you either sign Joe to an extension this summer or risk losing him for nothing. Essentially that would mean a max extension because he has no incentive to sign for a "reasonable" amount. If the team doesn't feel he's worth that offer then they could look at dealing him this summer. The problem with that idea is that unless a team is able to reach an agreement with him he would be a one year rental which can depress his trade value.

If you play the waiting game then Atlanta can still pay him more than anyone else because of holding his bird rights (longer deal, larger raises). However that only comes into to play if you are willing to outpay other teams. If that's the case you could have dealt with him in advance and avoided the drama.

I wish Joe will realize is in a good situation since he has the first role on this team, and that the team is slowly improving. I also hope he knows he's not worth a max contract at this moment, and more important, he knows that more dollars on his contract can result in one good bench player not signed.

Owners seem to be OK to stay over the cap (but under the tax) if the team continue to improve, which Joe should like, but I think an extension will not come in early July, at least not until he knows what they will do with Bibby, Marvin, Zaza... or potential sign-&-trade including these players.
Once he will be sure that the team can be at the same level or higher, he will consider an extension.
But I hope the numbers will already be discussed in July, because if owners don't know if he's OK for a 15M/yr extension, or if he wants max, they will have to wait and maybe pass on a MLE player, or only sign a 2M guy to be sure to keep room for Joe. If at the end he's OK for less than max, it could hurt the team because the good MLE players will be already signed with other teams.

I also think he's not worth a max deal. Their is an upper echelon and JJ is good, but not that good. I call $15M reasonable. If he's willing to sign for that, sign him. If he turns it down, he likely could fetch a bit more, but I don't think I'd want the Hawks to go there.

So, if he won't sign for the vicinity of $15M should we look to trade him this summer?

I love JJ on the Hawks. I'd prefere that the Hawks were quicker in the back-court though. If JJ could move to the SF, we could replace Bibby and look for a good young SG. The other options involve trading one of Smoove/Horf/MW. We need a good C and a starting PG.

Of all of the trade senarios I've tried to come up with, I can't seem to improve the team; unless I envision trading JJ. He should bring us the best return. I also like the thought of Smoove moving to the three in a rotation with Horf at PF, a starting C and Smoove at the 3, with speed, D and as much scoring as possible in the back-court.
Draft PG #19

You think Denver would do a JJ/2010 lottery protected first for Nene/JR Smith ?
Move MW for Rudy Fernandez/Blake/Frye (S&T)
S&T Bibby for a 2010 first and an expiring
Sign Zaza/Flip

The core could look something like this:

Nene/Zaza
Horf/Frye
Smoove/Mo
Fernandez/JR Smith/Flip
Blake/Law/#19

I think that its pretty clear that he will get the max from someone if he hits FA in 2010. There are too many teams clearing payroll to chase players that they are unlikely to get. If you don't want him at a max contract then you are certainly better off trading him now.

Joe doesn't have any ground to complain. he wanted to be a team's #1, and he was given that in ATL. he was given the money, the ball, and the team.

the ownership will offer another max contract to Joe, so i don't see Joe leaving to join another team because he wants to be a #1, because he is already a #1 in ATL.

Hawks are already a top 4 team, i also don't see Joe wanting to leave for a rebuilding team.

ATL is nothing like NY or LA, in terms of media, but ATL is on the same level with Miami, and Chicago as being a second tier major media city.

if by some chance that Joe wants to leave, i think he is a nice enough guy, that he would allow the Hawks to do a sign and trade (like the Grant Hill to Orlando trade)

lol- I love how some people think that players are being "nice" to allow a sign and trade, where in reality they want the S&T because they get more money that way.

It's going to be such an interesting off-season; the contract situations, the strong core that has moved this team to a top four seed, the desire to make the move that will fit with the contract realities and take the team to the next level as the core continues to develop, the risk of upsetting the progress with a move that doesn't work out....

Woodson would have to have a major flop at this point to not be brought back for the second year of his two year contract.

We all seem to think that one of the core of Horf, Smoove, Marvin will be moved to get the LAST piece to put the team at the top of the East, I think trading JJ is a better bet than moving the other three.

Trading JJ and Marvin would dramatically re-shape the team, but it could go like this:

By bringing in a good starting C and Horf and Smoove moving to PF and SF respectfully, we become a dominate power team on the inside. if you match that with a PG that can play D, break down the D and dish and a Sg that can play some D, hit an outside shot and score, I think that could be an amazing senario.

I think that a combination of JJ/MW/Speedy's expiring/and a future pick can get us a very good C and an explosive back-court. We would also have better cap flexibility and a #19 and #49.

tbhawksfan wrote:...
By bringing in a good starting C and Horf and Smoove moving to PF and SF respectfully, we become a dominate power team on the inside...

I (and I am not the only one) don't like the idea of Smith playing at SF, and that's why, if they choose to keep him, they better have to find a C that i good, bit can and want to come off the bench.

The kind of player Brad Miller is, and that's why I hoped we can get him in February. Smith would have continue to play at PF, for 32 minutes, Horford would have start at C, but play only 16 minutes at this position, and 16 at PF backing up Smith, and Miller 32 minutes behind Horford at C.

Certainly the best the best we could have get without giving too much, and without any ego problem.

Miller was also my first choice. I thought his inside passing would tranform the Hawks post production.

I'm not a particular fan of moving Smoove to the 3; but I think if he played within the position; a post up SF, who takes occaisional jump shots appropriately and the Hawks tighten up the interior D; the fast back-court could contest the long ball and it would be very difficult to work us inside.