President Brad Stevens - EotY (2023-24)

[Fierce1]

It took Presti 18 years to finally win a championship.

Brad only needed 3.

Don't forget Presti had KD, Russ, and Harden.

This is not me saying Presti is bad.

Point is it takes time to win a championship.

That's why I don't understand why Brad is getting bashed for his drafting.

[Fencer reregistered]

Brad shipped out a lot of assets: Smart, Timelord, Nesmith, a bunch of firsts, etc. He also used some picks and UFA roster slots.

He got White and Hauser long-term, plus rentals of various lengths of Horford, Holiday, Porzingis, Brogdon, Kornet, et al., plus the prospects still on the roster.

White alone is worth the traded picks. The rentals were upgrades over Smart and Rob, whether or not you focus on health issues.

So yeah -- overall, Brad has done well on personnel.

[redslastlaugh]

The Celtics have yet to miss the conference finals since Brad Stevens took over Danny Ainge's job as POBO. That must be one of the more successful starts to an executive's career in the NBA. Usually, when you take on this role, there's some turmoil that caused the personnel change or you're in for some rebuilding or at the very least an adjustment/transition period.

If we don't **** it up, the Cs are poised to make their 4th consecutive conference finals appearance.

Narrator: They did indeed, **** it up

[Smart2Nesmith43]

Interesting data here:

Read on Twitter

Brad is not listed. Why? Because it's only for GM's who have made at least 10 draft picks.

Brad has made 8 picks..and 3 of them haven't even started their rookie season yet (Amari, Hugo, Shulga).

What's my point?

1) I think some folks on here have been unfairly critical of Brad's drafting, saying he can't draft. Well, we don't even have a large enough sample size to judge his drafting. Seems like at least 10 picks is probably a fair minimum threshold before any strong judgement.

Also, out of his 8 picks, only 2 of them were 1st round picks..those 2 picks were very late 1st rounders (28 and 30)..The 28 has not started his rookie year and the 30 has only played 1 season so far and it was a season where we were title or bust so naturally a rookie isn't gonna play much on that type of a team.

2) Someone on here mentioned memphis recently, pointing to the success they have had with late 1st round picks and 2nd round picks and said "Oh, why can't Brad be more like Memphis..he's not memphis, so he must be bad at drafting". Well, according to this data, Memphis is an outlier. Memphis has been outlier good at draft, wayyy better than every other team. So it's unfair criticism..especially since Brad hasn't even made 10 picks..

Plus, Memphis has had like more injuries than any other team in the league over the past few years which means more opportunity for young draft picks to get playing time..especially in comparison to a team like Boston who hasn't had nearly as many injuries and has had far more talent and more depth..

What metrics were used?

I ask in particular because Sam Presti was listed as being particularly unsuccessful at drafting.

The graph lists multiple executives that have been out of the league for years as active so I'm not too sure how much stock we should put in it. I think we can assume the cutoff point doesn't include Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins which are pretty significant data points. The thing with Presti is that he understands the key is volume. Nobody remembers the Ousmane Diengs and Aleksej Pokuševskis if you really hit on one late lottery pick. Kinda like nobody remembers the James Youngs and RJ Hunters when you have a Rajon Rondo on the ledger. But some posters don't seem to grasp that fact.

[redslastlaugh]

Interesting data here:

Read on Twitter

Brad is not listed. Why? Because it's only for GM's who have made at least 10 draft picks.

Brad has made 8 picks..and 3 of them haven't even started their rookie season yet (Amari, Hugo, Shulga).

What's my point?

1) I think some folks on here have been unfairly critical of Brad's drafting, saying he can't draft. Well, we don't even have a large enough sample size to judge his drafting. Seems like at least 10 picks is probably a fair minimum threshold before any strong judgement.

Also, out of his 8 picks, only 2 of them were 1st round picks..those 2 picks were very late 1st rounders (28 and 30)..The 28 has not started his rookie year and the 30 has only played 1 season so far and it was a season where we were title or bust so naturally a rookie isn't gonna play much on that type of a team.

2) Someone on here mentioned memphis recently, pointing to the success they have had with late 1st round picks and 2nd round picks and said "Oh, why can't Brad be more like Memphis..he's not memphis, so he must be bad at drafting". Well, according to this data, Memphis is an outlier. Memphis has been outlier good at draft, wayyy better than every other team. So it's unfair criticism..especially since Brad hasn't even made 10 picks..

Plus, Memphis has had like more injuries than any other team in the league over the past few years which means more opportunity for young draft picks to get playing time..especially in comparison to a team like Boston who hasn't had nearly as many injuries and has had far more talent and more depth..

What metrics were used?

I ask in particular because Sam Presti was listed as being particularly unsuccessful at drafting.

The graph lists multiple executives that have been out of the league for years as active so I'm not too sure how much stock we should put in it. I think we can assume the cutoff point doesn't include Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren, Cason Wallace and Aaron Wiggins which are pretty significant data points. The thing with Presti is that he understands the key is volume. Nobody remembers the Ousmane Diengs and Aleksej Pokuševskis if you really hit on one late lottery pick. Kinda like nobody remembers the James Youngs and RJ Hunters when you have a Rajon Rondo on the ledger. But some posters don't seem to grasp that fact.

Presti coming out so low honestly invalidates this analyst's entire methodology. Presti is the best drafter since, I dont know, Jerry West? He's been very, very good.

One thing about judging drafting is portioning out who gets the credit. In Presti's case, he is credited by the Spurs organization for the Tony Parker pick, but Presti wasnt the final decision maker who would get the credit in a broad meta analysis, RC Buford and greg Popovich would get that credit. Same with Jerry West consulting with the Warriors on the Klay Thompson pick in 2011. So it helps to actually have an understanding of the reporting around the picks.

The same is true in the reverse too. Everybody knows the story that Chris Wallace was ready to select Tony Parker but, at that last minute, was overruled by an elderly Red Auberach who canceled the Parker order and submitted Joe Forte as the Celtics pick. Nobody with knowledge of the Celtics blames Chris Wallace for that pick.

Obviously with Zach Kleiman, it is clear that Memphis's office has been outstanding in the draft. Brad Stevens, compared to Kleiman and Presti, doesn't make many picks, trades out usually, trades back frequently, and doesn't roster the picks he does make. The only draftees Brad has signed to standard roster deals are Hugo, Baylor and Jordan Walsh. The Grizzlies current roster includes Santi Aldama, Zach Edey, Cedric Coward, Cam Spencer, Vince Williams, GG jackson, & Jaylen Wells who were drafted by the Griz over the same time frame Brad Stevens has run the Celtics.

I agree with Hal, volume is important. No GM bats 100% in the draft and everyone has misses, so a component of success is simply taking a lot of swings.

edit: for anyone who doesn't know Tony Parker tells the whole story of his draft night, including the NBA rep handing him a Celtics hat and then coming and taking it back after Red intervened https://www.youtube.com/shorts/mWp4n7nBQB8

[phincsfan]

Until Stevens gets his first crack at a top 14 pick to select I'll hold back criticism.

IMO, DA was set in his way with his picks. I'm sure Stevens had his input, but in the end it was DA's call.

[ConstableGeneva]

The Celtics have yet to miss the conference finals since Brad Stevens took over Danny Ainge's job as POBO. That must be one of the more successful starts to an executive's career in the NBA. Usually, when you take on this role, there's some turmoil that caused the personnel change or you're in for some rebuilding or at the very least an adjustment/transition period.

If we don't **** it up, the Cs are poised to make their 4th consecutive conference finals appearance.

Narrator: They did indeed, **** it up

Yup. More on coach/players than on Brad. In any case, that would've been their last conference finals in a while. Breaking up the team was inevitable, JT injury or not. New CBA blindsided Brad and that's on him. I'm glad we got one, post-KG/PP.

[redslastlaugh]

The Celtics have yet to miss the conference finals since Brad Stevens took over Danny Ainge's job as POBO. That must be one of the more successful starts to an executive's career in the NBA. Usually, when you take on this role, there's some turmoil that caused the personnel change or you're in for some rebuilding or at the very least an adjustment/transition period.

If we don't **** it up, the Cs are poised to make their 4th consecutive conference finals appearance.

Narrator: They did indeed, **** it up

Yup. More on coach/players than on Brad. In any case, that would've been their last conference finals in a while. Breaking up the team was inevitable, JT injury or not. New CBA blindsided Brad and that's on him. I'm glad we got one, post-KG/PP.

Honestly, Wyc kind of screwed Brad by authorizing him to extend all the guys without telling him once he did the team would be sold and Brad would then be tasked with undoing everything he just did, lol

At the end of year presser when Brad was asked about the new ownership transition and what are Brad's expectations, Brad just said, "Listen, I just want to be kept in the loop pertaining to the big going-ons." And I remembered to the summer when Wyc dropped the press release that the team was going up for auction and Brad was asked, "when did you know that the team was going to be sold," and Brad said he found out when everyone else did

When you also factor in JB's knee, Jrue's hammy, KP's mystery viral illness, the Knicks games 1&2 and then ultimately JTs horrific injury, Brad Stevens is probably the least guy on the blame totem pole

[ConstableGeneva]

With the emergence of both Hugo Gonzales and Jordan Walsh as potential rotation players on a playoff contender, it begs the question -- Is Brad Stevens also a good drafter when just three months ago, he wasn't??!

[playa-hater]

Brad Stevens sample size as a drafter is still a little too small IMO. And certainly a bit strange that he has passed up drafting Filipowski, Kalk and Raynaud when all players would have made good backup centers on a much need team.

But overall Brad is easy top 3 POBO and has done a great job upgrading this roster with talent every year since his take over. But Brad's hiring 2 rookie coaches with NO HC experience during our championship run is something I obviously don't agree with.

[ConstableGeneva]

The four winningest (in terms of titles) NBA coaches in history didn't have previous head coaching experience (except Auerbach who had a brief stint with the Tri-Cities Blackhawks). They all won multiple titles during their first stint as HC.

Shouldn't be a requirement for being an NBA head coach imo. Sometimes it's even an advantage not hiring a has-been/retread since they offer new perspective and bring much-needed energy into the game/team.

[redslastlaugh]

With the emergence of both Hugo Gonzales and Jordan Walsh as potential rotation players on a playoff contender, it begs the question -- Is Brad Stevens also a good drafter when just three months ago, he wasn't??!

Great question.

In 2021, Brad moved from coach to GM shortly before the draft. He traded the #16 + Kemba's contract for Al Horford. He drafted Juhann Begarin #45 who he had not scouted during the season since he was coaching. I don't really count Begarin as a Brad's pick, he had barely had the job, and he probably just signed off on the pick, imo... Trading for Al Horford was a great decision but the pick we traded drafted Alperen Sengun and Jalen Johnson & Trey Murphy were two of the next four picks

In 2022, Brad traded our first (#25) for Derrick White, and took JD Davison at #52. Davison was an interesting swing but Brad never signed him to a standard contract

In 2023, Brad traded the first we got from Memphis (#25) back several times adding Jordan Walsh and 4 future 2nds. The 2nd round was strong that year but Walsh looks like a very good pick. Brad signed Walsh to a 4yr standard roster contract, which looks like a great decision.

In 2024, Brad took Baylor Scheierman at #30, his only 1st round pick at the time, and Anton Watson at #54. Scheierman is already 25 and has looked good at times, bad at others. These players taken after Baylor have more winshares: Mogbo, Filiposwki, Jaylen Wells, Ajay Mitchell, Oso Ighodaro, Pelle Larson, Jamal Shead, Quentin Post, Cam Spencer ... This draft had serious depth and of these guys listed, Ajay Mitchell looks like a potential all star. Watson got cut as a rookie

In 2025, Brad took Hugo Gonzalez, which is looking like a great pick. He traded down from #32 (a spot that requires giving a roster contract) for two guys who'd take 2-ways and 2 future 2nds. I'm not going list the players available at #32 but I am confident none would have taken a 2-way.

So in five drafts, Brad took 3 total players that he signed to a standard deal. The volume is very low for a GM. Over this same time, for instance, OKC Thunder took 13 total players who signed standard contracts (not 2-ways)... I am not looking it up, but 3 total players drafted and signed over 5 drafts, I would bet is the least draft yield out of all 30 teams, lol, but Im not looking it up, lol

So just judging the picks: Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman, Hugo Gonzalez : I would grade Brad as B+ or A-

I would deduct points for Brad not signing more players to 4yr roster contracts. But I would also predict, having seen Walsh, Scheierman and Hugo bang for the buck, that Brad will sign more draftees going forward, esp in light of 2nd apron/tax penalties.

[Fencer reregistered]

The Celtics were unsuccessful with their second round picks in the latter part of Danny Ainge's tenure, and except for Walsh also in Brad Stevens'.

Over a similar period, they've been pretty successful with minimum-salary FAs, be they UDFAs, European imports, or second-chance guys.

Over a similar period, Austin Ainge ran personnel.

Coincidence, or more? I haven't checked the dates closely, nor do I have a simple theory as to why that makes sense. But It does make one wonder ...

[hugepatsfan]

With the emergence of both Hugo Gonzales and Jordan Walsh as potential rotation players on a playoff contender, it begs the question -- Is Brad Stevens also a good drafter when just three months ago, he wasn't??!

Great question.

In 2021, Brad moved from coach to GM shortly before the draft. He traded the #16 + Kemba's contract for Al Horford. He drafted Juhann Begarin #45 who he had not scouted during the season since he was coaching. I don't really count Begarin as a Brad's pick, he had barely had the job, and he probably just signed off on the pick, imo... Trading for Al Horford was a great decision but the pick we traded drafted Alperen Sengun and Jalen Johnson & Trey Murphy were two of the next four picks

In 2022, Brad traded our first (#25) for Derrick White, and took JD Davison at #52. Davison was an interesting swing but Brad never signed him to a standard contract

In 2023, Brad traded the first we got from Memphis (#25) back several times adding Jordan Walsh and 4 future 2nds. The 2nd round was strong that year but Walsh looks like a very good pick. Brad signed Walsh to a 4yr standard roster contract, which looks like a great decision.

In 2024, Brad took Baylor Scheierman at #30, his only 1st round pick at the time, and Anton Watson at #54. Scheierman is already 25 and has looked good at times, bad at others. These players taken after Baylor have more winshares: Mogbo, Filiposwki, Jaylen Wells, Ajay Mitchell, Oso Ighodaro, Pelle Larson, Jamal Shead, Quentin Post, Cam Spencer ... This draft had serious depth and of these guys listed, Ajay Mitchell looks like a potential all star. Watson got cut as a rookie

In 2025, Brad took Hugo Gonzalez, which is looking like a great pick. He traded down from #32 (a spot that requires giving a roster contract) for two guys who'd take 2-ways and 2 future 2nds. I'm not going list the players available at #32 but I am confident none would have taken a 2-way.

So in five drafts, Brad took 3 total players that he signed to a standard deal. The volume is very low for a GM. Over this same time, for instance, OKC Thunder took 13 total players who signed standard contracts (not 2-ways)... I am not looking it up, but 3 total players drafted and signed over 5 drafts, I would bet is the least draft yield out of all 30 teams, lol, but Im not looking it up, lol

So just judging the picks: Jordan Walsh, Baylor Scheierman, Hugo Gonzalez : I would grade Brad as B+ or A-

I would deduct points for Brad not signing more players to 4yr roster contracts. But I would also predict, having seen Walsh, Scheierman and Hugo bang for the buck, that Brad will sign more draftees going forward, esp in light of 2nd apron/tax penalties.

On the Horford trade, I think the financial aspect is worth extra emphasis. They HAD to make that trade to get their cap sheet in order. I doubt it ever even got to the prospect evaluation stage there.

[hickfromfrenchlick]

Brad Stevens sample size as a drafter is still a little too small IMO. And certainly a bit strange that he has passed up drafting Filipowski, Kalk and Raynaud when all players would have made good backup centers on a much need team.

But overall Brad is easy top 3 POBO and has done a great job upgrading this roster with talent every year since his take over. But Brad's hiring 2 rookie coaches with NO HC experience during our championship run is something I obviously don't agree with.

But we … won a title?

[playa-hater]

Brad Stevens sample size as a drafter is still a little too small IMO. And certainly a bit strange that he has passed up drafting Filipowski, Kalk and Raynaud when all players would have made good backup centers on a much need team.

But overall Brad is easy top 3 POBO and has done a great job upgrading this roster with talent every year since his take over. But Brad's hiring 2 rookie coaches with NO HC experience during our championship run is something I obviously don't agree with.

But we … won a title?

Well yes we did but truth be told I truly believe we had the talent and we're in prime position to certainly win more than one in the last four years. And the one we did was almost a cake walk Through a ton of teams decimated by injuries, but whatever.

[Smart2Nesmith43]

Brad Stevens sample size as a drafter is still a little too small IMO. And certainly a bit strange that he has passed up drafting Filipowski, Kalk and Raynaud when all players would have made good backup centers on a much need team.

But overall Brad is easy top 3 POBO and has done a great job upgrading this roster with talent every year since his take over. But Brad's hiring 2 rookie coaches with NO HC experience during our championship run is something I obviously don't agree with.

But we … won a title?

When the Celtics lose, Mazzulla sucks.
When the Celtics win, Mazzulla sucks. The other coach just sucks more.
When the Celtics are NBA champs, Mazulla sucks. He is just lucky he has more talent.
It's really not that complicated.