ICanOutreboundWalter wrote:If we are talking about Thabeet as a top 10 pick, then Bill is entitled to his opinion.
If we are talking about him falling to pick 30 (its not going to happen, anyway) then passing on him would be absolutely ludicrous. His intensity is up since last year, and on the mere possibility that he projects out, you gotta try it. Most guys at pick 30 never amount to anything-if you can get a superstar, you have to do that.
I also kinda dispute the whole "everyone I think will be a bust has been and everyone I think will be good has been" thing. I don't remember exact players, which means I'm not going to go back and grade you...but you are definitely biased towards finished products for the most part. Only 2 years or so have probably gone by since you made most of your predictions. These finished products guys are pretty much guaranteed PT, and IMO, there are a lot of players that will average 10 points with guaranteed PT.
To really talk about who was right and wrong about a draft, come back in 6 years.
I've been coming to this site for over 8 years and my own knowledge of the game has grown in that time, so i can see the development of my own understanding of the game during that time...you learn something every year if you're open to it...
That being said, I absolutely agree with the principle that you've got to wait at least 5 years before passing final judgement on a player...I think that I do that a lot better than many posters on this board who tend to condemn a player after a couple of seasons...
That being said, while its certainly foolhardy to cap I player's potential based off his current performance, a player's skill set and track history of his approach to the game give off a very good indication of what his "window" of potential may be...
Yes, at pick 30 you're probably not going to find a superstar, but I'd be much happier taking a guy like Harden or Jawai whom I believe are a higher probability for success than Thabeet...both these players have as much potential as Thabeet in my estimation, aside from shot-blocking...but rebouding, defending, low-post offense, face-up, you name it...Thabeet is an athletic guy, but he really isn't all that skilled...couple that with my questions about his attitude and I really don't see what the major attraction is...doesn't have great latteral movement, so he's not much help in blitzing picks, not a great feel for the game, doesn't have any real offensive game beyond just putting up the ball near the basket...isn't a great positional rebounder and doesn't range rebound at all...
I just don't see the draw beyond blocking a lot of shots, which is much different in the NCAA where a relatively immobile big man-in terms of latterally-won't be able to just camp out and wait for guys...
...I could be wrong, that's just my feeling on it...not really going to push it much more than that...to me, his upside is Mark Eaton and his downside is Yinka Dare...that's just me...
