billfromBoston wrote:...it's of course simpler than most here are making it...
1. It all depends on the production value of RA/PP/KG at the time they are expiring
2. That production value will be in relation to their asking price
3. That in turn will be weighed relative to whomever else is on the market
4. The market will be projected and guaged for each of the three years
5. Ray's walk-year projects to have anywere from 6-12 million depending on who is signed/re-signed
6. Pierce's walk year projects between 10-15 million for the same reasons mentioned above.
My best estimate right now would project the team re-signing Ray as long as he's shooting efficiently. A 40-45% 3 point shooter with Ray's resume is worth 5-6 million at ages 35-38, ala Reggie.
If he's healthy, happy, and price-productive he'll stick. Considering the team most likely won't have top-dollar flexibility his walk year, I doubt they'll let him go if he's playing well. Perhaps there's a trade available that year, but its not the norm and isn't the best business to trade a content star of Allen's prestige.
Even with re-signing Allen, its the NEXT off-season that looks the most likely that the team will aggressively pursue a young star for the future to play with Rondo during his prime.
in 2010/11 the team could make a very strong offer of 10+ million even WITH re-signing both PP and RA...over the next 3 years the team will most likely maintain cap flexibility with an eye toward that season as they can contend by keeping most of this current core in tact.
I doubt the team signs anyone for more than 3 seasons this off-season unless there is exceptional value on the market with the MLE, which is rare.
Most likely, the team will keep most of the core in-tact and give out short-term deals to keep their potential cap figure robust for the free agent market in 2010/11...
..it'll all depend on how the current core is playing, the cost to keep, and the availability of other talent....but the team is in great position to extend this team's run of contention past the next 3 years...
...and FYI-KG will most likely pull a Malone and remain an anchor in the front court for another 7-8 years, so this team will always have a shot to contend while he's here...
I've been thinking the same thing, PP's walk year is the year we're most likely to have the financial flexibility to sign a star, but Ray's walk year is the year where most of the guys you'd want to build your franchise around will be FA's (Lebron, Carmelo, Wade).
Anybody know who's going to be available that year?
Edit* Nevermind. I found that the 2 big names available that year are Yao and Amare. Personally I'd be happy with either one.
