Its Official Boston, You and Atlanta will go at it

[billfromBoston]

...I think everyone on this board is going to learn a little something about the nature of playoff basketball and how it impacts play...


I expect the Hawks to get blown out in the first game in Boston, simply because the Celtics are more talented, more playoff experienced, and extremely hungry to start off the title campaign...

..but after game one I'd expect most of the next 3-4 games to be in single digits entering the 3rd and 4th quarters...I believe Boston will have a couple games where they put Atlanta away in the 3rd, but the Hawks have the talent offensively to bring a couple games into the 4th...

The problem the Hawks will have is in the 4th quarter...Atlanta's best weapon is transition, and that simply isn't going to exist during the series late in the game...the Hawks take really bad shots far too often in half court sets under the Celtics defensive pressure-which is precisely why they lost to Boston's bench the other night, and ultimately, the series for the year...

Rivers will allow extended minutes to the bench in order to rest GPA as long as possible, so outside of that first game I wouldn't expect 40+ minutes from the 3 stars nightly in this round...this alone should give Atlanta a chance to stay close and to make some mini-runs....

But in the end, the Hawks inexperience will do them in-as it does to EVERY inexperienced team...while Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby have playoff experience, JJ has NONE as a go-to option and Bibby had all his glory on a team that was far more balanced in terms of inside play and intelligent half court offense...neither of these two is suited to carry the weight of the other starters when things start going badly. They are excellent big-shot makers, but are primarily dangerous as shooters off the dribble-the lowest percentage shot in basketball...

Al Horford has put up good numbers against Boston this year relative to his rather pedestrian offensive output for the season...but he's done absolutely nothing defensively against Boston on the interior, which is the area they need him in the most...Josh Smith has made some nice weak-side blocks, but Hawks fans will see in time how much they overpaid to keep him, because much like Shawn Marion, you can't rely on Smith to be more than a super-role player...if you give him the ball too much he just takes crazy shots that make no sense...

A lot of the Hawks talent is masked by the low expectations and perenial losing that goes on there...Joe Johnson and Mike Bibby are the only two bonafide go-to options on that team and both are more ideally suited for 2nd and 3rd option status because they're better playmakers than they are dominant scorers...Horford is a solid all-around player, but he's not a go-to post player and i doubt he'll ever have the back-to-basket game to be one...Horford's best offensive weapon is his face-up shot...

Marvin Williams I like very much for his potential as a 3...I think he can become quite a player...but Atlanta is going to have to choose between overpaying Smith or developing Marvin because the Hawks will never win a damn thing with a Horford/Smith/Williams frontcourt--being Phoenix is not the way to go...

If Atlanta wants to have any shot at winning a game in this series its going to have to come on the strength of their defense and offensive rebounding...if they can turn Boston over a lot (possible) and get a ton of 2nd chance opportunities they can win a game...but if the posessions are equal, Boston's half-court offense and defense is simply too much for Atlanta to match up to...it doesn't take bias to see that...

[The Corey's]

Still, Boston I think is going to roll right through this first round, regardless of the scores.

[JoshB914]

billfromBoston, I agree with your assesment on the series. I think the Hawks will hang around and then the C's will put them away in the 4th. I know your bench beat us in the 4th on Sat., but I would expect a lot of the games to go like that (except with your starters finishing us off and not Sam Cassell/testical dance).

I don't think Smoove is a super-role player I think he will be more. Perhaps offensively he may never be great, but he is already a star defensively. And he will always be a star because of what he can on that side of the floor. I don't think you can compare him to Marion, who cant do a lot of the things that Smoove can do, they are similar as fantasy players, but nothing more.

[greenbeans]

Marion>>Smith

[Adobozz]

billfromboston that was well said man. Do you watch the Hawks or just saw few games?

What you said about Smoove was 100% true. The guy plays out of control, sometimes it's a good thing because he gets 20pts 15reb 5ast 3stl 4blks but there is also bunch of 10pts on 2-15, 5reb 6TO 5PF games though.

[celticfan42487]

...I think everyone on this board is going to learn a little something about the nature of playoff basketball and how it impacts play...

It seems like half of your posts start off with everyone needs to learn something then a long disertation by you. Regardless of the content I'm just saying it's kinda weird.

[IonSen88]

I see a lot of Atlanta homerism and any Celtics fan over the last few years knows homerism as I have been guilty of it myself. Comparing Horford to KG is stupid. Horford is a great player with a bright future, but get that crap out of the thread. The Hawks are going to take a beating.

I didn't see anyone (including myself) comparing Horford to Garnett. What I said was that Horford will not be Garnett's boy-toy, out-worked, or dominated by anyone on Boston's roster. With that said; after taking a physiological 'beating' the past 9 years by way of unfulfilled playoff guarantees, 8 consecutive 50-loss seasons, a 13 win campaign, and bickering owners; there isn't a beating Boston can dish out that I've yet to endure.

[JoshB914]

Josh Smith is shooting 46%. He has some decision making issues but he is still a solid force offensively. He is only 22 years old, he will get the $$$ he deserves this summer and he will cash in on it.

Of course he may not look all that great if he is matched up with KG all series. But then again who would?

[bruno sundov]

Josh Smith is the single most exciting player to watch in the L. In saying that he is a 3 or 4? What is Marvin, the kid from Duke who ATL drafted 2 years ago now, what position is he?

The question being if your need a 5 can you trade marvin and the guy from duke , with the eyes that are to close to the center of his face, for a legite 5? Say Wilcox or Biedrinis.

[GuyClinch]

It seems like half of your posts start off with everyone needs to learn something then a long disertation by you. Regardless of the content I'm just saying it's kinda weird.

Kind of weird? How long have you been reading message boards for? Half of all posts are written by self-appointed "experts" who want to spread their wisdom to the unwashed masses.

That being said his post was pretty decent. Though it reminds me of what Coach Knight said about Dick Vitale's score predictions. If you can predict scores like that you would be a heck of alot richer. I am not sure we can predict "blow-out" then close games or what have you.

It's not crazy to expect a sweep - but point differentials is really a stretch.

Pete

[GuyClinch]

Josh Smith is the single most exciting player to watch in the L.

Highly debatable. I thing Iggy is more exciting - as is AI, Nash and Kobe. Lebron is exciting too but the rest of his team bothers me too much.

Pete

[celticfan42487]

It seems like half of your posts start off with everyone needs to learn something then a long disertation by you. Regardless of the content I'm just saying it's kinda weird.

Kind of weird? How long have you been reading message boards for? Half of all posts are written by self-appointed "experts" who want to spread their wisdom to the unwashed masses.

That being said his post was pretty decent. Though it reminds me of what Coach Knight said about Dick Vitale's score predictions. If you can predict scores like that you would be a heck of alot richer. I am not sure we can predict "blow-out" then close games or what have you.

It's not crazy to expect a sweep - but point differentials is really a stretch.

Pete

Okay yeah good points, I must of lost where I was there for a second.

With that said, anything less then a sweep with a point diffrential of +10 ppg will be a massive failure on the Celtics part.

[JoshB914]

Josh Smith is the single most exciting player to watch in the L. In saying that he is a 3 or 4? What is Marvin, the kid from Duke who ATL drafted 2 years ago now, what position is he?

The question being if your need a 5 can you trade marvin and the guy from duke , with the eyes that are to close to the center of his face, for a legite 5? Say Wilcox or Biedrinis.

Smith is a PF and Marvin Williams is the SF. The guy from Duke youre referring to is Shelden Williams who was dealt to Sacramento in the Bibby trade.

[billfromBoston]

It seems like half of your posts start off with everyone needs to learn something then a long disertation by you. Regardless of the content I'm just saying it's kinda weird.

Kind of weird? How long have you been reading message boards for? Half of all posts are written by self-appointed "experts" who want to spread their wisdom to the unwashed masses.

That being said his post was pretty decent. Though it reminds me of what Coach Knight said about Dick Vitale's score predictions. If you can predict scores like that you would be a heck of alot richer. I am not sure we can predict "blow-out" then close games or what have you.

It's not crazy to expect a sweep - but point differentials is really a stretch.

Pete

...OR...

it could be that I do this professionally, have broken down film on every team in the NBA at least 15-20 times every season for the past 5 years, have scouted every player on both rosters, and have a bit more perspective on the overall league than the posters I was referring to...

...my feeling on how the scoring will play out is just a feeling, but my rationale for it is based off 100's of hours of reviewing how both teams play...

There is a lot of quality on this board, but there is also a distinct lack of perspective...most posts are totally "my team-centric" with little understanding of how the opposition plays beyond how they've played in a limited sample against the home town team...

Its hard not to read quite a bit of the content in some of these posts and not be frustrated by the line of thinking inherent in them...I'm not a self-appointed expert-I get paid to evaluate talent...I'm not Nostradamus, but I do have a very accurate feel for Atlanta's personnel, how they've played as a unit overall, their career development over time, and what the league consensus is about them...

Playoff basketball is different, plain and simple...the game gears more toward half court-especially in the 4th quarter...as series drag on the games tend to further develop into possession battles...the more evenly matched the teams are the harder it is to run away with a game...and for all the adjustments that are made within a series there are usually patterns that develop that expose the overall match up disadvantages..

When i said that some posters are going to learn about playoff basketball, i say it because I read post after post that show a lack of perspective beyond the home town team...its been so long since this team has had a contender i think many posters are making false assumptions based of a lack of familiarity with the environment...

[wickerhd]

And in playoff basketball, every possession is a war.

There are two concerns for the Celtics in my mind. First they play the regular season games with such intensity, that its not clear whether they will be able to take it up a notch as the playoffs require. Teams like Detroit and San Antonio have proven that they have that second gear. That may be a problem going against an athletic young team like the Hawks.

Secondly, turnovers are a much bigger issue in the playoffs, and Rondo has been a little wild with the ball in the past few weeks. As much as I like Rondo's future ability, I think the Hawks have the edge at PG.

In the end I think we'll prevail because of our defense. If past series are any guide, the refs tend to let the guys play more physically. We will definitely be the more physical team.

[bruno sundov]

-= original quote snipped =-



Smith is a PF and Marvin Williams is the SF. The guy from Duke youre referring to is Shelden Williams who was dealt to Sacramento in the Bibby trade.

Oh well that clears that up. Thanks. Shelden williwams always freaked me out. He looked like something out of a video game. It must have been his size and the fact that his eyes were so close to one another.

[bruno sundov]

Josh Smith is the single most exciting player to watch in the L.

Highly debatable. I thing Iggy is more exciting - as is AI, Nash and Kobe. Lebron is exciting too but the rest of his team bothers me too much.

Pete

I don't think Iggy is exciting on the defensive end. Josh Smith is exciting on both ends like the wya amare used tobe.