If we had to sign Rondo today

[John Locke]

What would his salary be?

What would be fair?

What would you be willing to give him?

[Big Baby]

6 years 60 million bucks.

[MalReyn]

Looking at some other young PGs in their 2nd contract...

Low end - 8 million/year
High end - 10 million/year

[Pogue Mahone]

6 years 60 million bucks.

I would be ecstatic with that. IMO, he is already worth $12M per, at minimum.

Many might think that scoring is what you pay for and, as a general rule, it's true. Then consider the following:

The average rebounding percentage for PGs is generally somewhere around 5.9 RbR. Rondo rebounds at 8.3. Let's give that a bit of a background.

The criteria is all combined seasons, from 1946-47 to 2007-08, 6-3 or shorter, played in the NBA, primary career position G, requiring Total Rebound Pct >= 8.9 and Minutes Played >= 4000, sorted by descending Total Rebound Pct.

I used the height of 6'3 as the cutoff so I didn't gather a bunch of SGs in the sample. There are only three players who meet this criteria.

1. Fat Lever - 10.1 RbR - The gold standard of defensive PGs, imo. Lever is the player I always say that Rondo reminds me of and I think people seriously underrate Lever's impact. Back in the 80s, Denver was run-and-gun and would often get outscored by a ton-- except when Fat was in the game.

Lever was a two-time all-star, was voted top-10 MVP (twice), one all-defensive 2nd team, voted to one All-NBA 2nd team and ranks 8th, all-time, in steal percentage (min 15000 MP 1250 STL.) Like Rondo, Lever wasn't known as being a scorer and I think that is one of the major reasons he was undervalued throughout his career. He just did so many things on the floor and his impact from the PG position was very real. If Rondo indeed becomes the next Fat Lever, oh gosh.

2. Alvin Robertson - 9.4 RbR - Excellent lead guard for the Spurs, though he was often remembered for his time with Bucks in the late 80s/early 90s. Many people considered him the preeminent ball-thief of his day.

Robertson was a four-time all-star, voted DPOY, MIP, two-time all-defensive 1st team, four-time all defensive 2nd team, one-time All-NBA 2nd team. Robertson ranks #1, overall, in career steal percentage.

3. Rajon Rondo - 8.9 RbR

Furthermore, Rondo is a ball-thief, as well. While many consider his performance in that aspect of the game to have fallen off the table since last year, it really hasn't. Yes, there was a slight drop-off but the difference is what amounts to .55%. The change was more in defensive philosophy than actual performance, imo.

Again, lets compare him to players in the past and see what comes up.

For all combined seasons, from 1946-47 to 2007-08, 6-3 or shorter, played in the NBA, primary career position G, requiring Steal Pct >= 3.3 and Minutes Played >= 4000, sorted by descending Steal Pct.

As I stated above, Robertson ranks 1st, all time. There are only 15 players with at least 4000 MP that have recorded a Stl% over 3.3.

Tied for 13th are Rondo and Chris Paul. If Rondo had somehow managed to retain his ball-thievery from season before, Rondo would have been tied for 5th all-time with Jerry West, fwiw. Fat Lever just missed the cut-off, btw, at 3.2 Stl%.

So, right now, it's looking like Alvin Robertson, a four-time all-star and former DPOY, and Fat Lever, a two-time all-star and twice top-10 MVP candidate, are his most likely comps.

Well, lets tweak the criteria and see what we get.

If we allow a little wiggle room and lower the Reb% to 8.5 and leave everything all the same, we get an additional three players. None of the three approach Rondo's stealing ability, though. Not even close. Two of those names are known to most people, as well (Sidney Moncrief and Steve Francis.)

So, lets find someone who rebounds and steals because that is what we are trying to match. Lowering the Reb% to 8.0% and the Stl% to 3.0%, everything else constant, we now have a list of four players.

Fat Lever
Alvin Robertson
Rajon Rondo
Art Williams

Art "Hambone" Williams is an interesting player, no doubt, but he wasn't able to do the things Rondo can offensively. In a faster-paced, higher-scoring environment, Hambone never scored more than 13.3 Pts/36 mins. Rondo scored 12.7 Pts/36 this year as a fourth option on a slower-paced team.

So Lever and Robertson are his two major comps, imo.

Lever had two seasons with a TS% >= .515 (what Rondo put up this season) and one other season at .514. He also recorded those seasons after already playing 11,000 career MP.

Robertson had seven seasons with a TS% >= .515. He also had another season with a .513.

All things considered, Lever appears to be the best comp, imo, especially when you consider turnovers. While Robertson was by no means bad in this regard, when you factor in playmaking for teammates, Robertson was turnover prone compared to both Rondo and Lever.

Like I said, Rondo's comp appears to be Lever. With that being said, he is still a smidge behind Robertson and a bit to go to match Lever (pace-adjusted, of course.)

In the summer of 1990 Fat Lever hit free agency at the age of 30. On his new contract, the first year was $1.519M. That 1st year's salary was ~2.119 times more than the league average NBA salary ($.717M.)

Just for Schlitz and giggles, the MLE is likely to be $5.50M by the time Rondo is eligible for his extension. Lever's fair value in today's NBA would be somewhere around $11.655M (assuming that he was priced correctly in 1990.) Rondo still has next year to improve on his game.

By my fair salary calculations, Rondo is currently worth $13,025,539.50. While some may consider that high, it is scaled in relation to what others in the league are making, per their performance. The same system says Garnett was worth $21,093,614.15 and Pierce $17,508,421.27 this season.

A member of the APBR messageboard, davis21wylie2121, uses WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) to calculate fair salary. He puts Rondo at $11,760,880. He has Garnett at $22,630,399 and Pierce at $21,853,494, btw.

Long story short, by the time Rondo comes up for extension, at minimum I think he would fetch $12M per year and it wouldn't be the least bit overpaying. If Ainge can somehow tie him up at a cheaper AAV, I would be ecstatic.

[ParticleMan]

great analysis.

as of right now i don't think he'd actually get $10m per tho. the main thing is that while he looks great, a lot of teams will look at it like, well he plays next to 3 allstars, how hard can that be? so i think his stats are a tad inflated for that. he gambles a lot defensively knowing Perk and KG are behind him. and he gets a lot of open shots because teams are doubling the big 3. if we was actually asked to be The Man he wouldn't fare as well imo.

luckily we don't have to worry about this until 2010, when KG's salary will be down and Ray may be off the books. if he keeps improving, especially offensively, we'll be in trouble. hopefully Wyc+co will be willing to cough it up.

[celticfan42487]

7 milion per year, 5 year contract would be fair value

We'd have to overpay him above his worth to keep him for 5 years due to his age

[BrokenLeftyJumper]

12mil per year? Some of you guys are out of your minds. I love Rondo and all, but thats just too much dough. That's almost a max deal! I'd be surprised if the C's couldn't get him for cheaper, I would imagine much of the negotiation is based on numbers, and I just don't see how Rondo's agent comes in asking for 10mil a year unless Rondo's numbers do a serious uptick. If the C's keep the Big 3 over the next few years, I don't see Rondo becoming a big enough part of the offense to demand that type of money. Considering Devin Harris, a comparable player, got around 8mil per on his deal, I'd say Rondo should be in the 8mil per year range.

[P2]

If Rondo continues to play like that and improve, he will get a max contract without a doubt. But luckily for us (not for Rondo), he will be earning under $3.0M per year until the end of 2009-10. But I have absolutely no doubts it will be a max contract he'll be getting.

[GuyClinch]

I doubt Rondo gets a max contract - come on now. Look at his season averages there is no way those merit a max.

10 points/5 assists/4rebounds is NOT MAX. Any max or 12 million talk is based on some uncertain improvement. The premise of this topic is what you resign him NOW at..

Right now - I think a 10/5/4 guy merits around 6 or 7 million IF you think he has major upside. As a guard you might not even get that much.

For reference Perkins was a 7/6/1 guy and he earned only 4 million right..

Pete

[Datruth345]

6 years 60 million bucks.

I would be ecstatic with that. IMO, he is already worth $12M per, at minimum.

Many might think that scoring is what you pay for and, as a general rule, it's true. Then consider the following:

The average rebounding percentage for PGs is generally somewhere around 5.9 RbR. Rondo rebounds at 8.3. Let's give that a bit of a background.

The criteria is all combined seasons, from 1946-47 to 2007-08, 6-3 or shorter, played in the NBA, primary career position G, requiring Total Rebound Pct >= 8.9 and Minutes Played >= 4000, sorted by descending Total Rebound Pct.

I used the height of 6'3 as the cutoff so I didn't gather a bunch of SGs in the sample. There are only three players who meet this criteria.

1. Fat Lever - 10.1 RbR - The gold standard of defensive PGs, imo. Lever is the player I always say that Rondo reminds me of and I think people seriously underrate Lever's impact. Back in the 80s, Denver was run-and-gun and would often get outscored by a ton-- except when Fat was in the game.

Lever was a two-time all-star, was voted top-10 MVP (twice), one all-defensive 2nd team, voted to one All-NBA 2nd team and ranks 8th, all-time, in steal percentage (min 15000 MP 1250 STL.) Like Rondo, Lever wasn't known as being a scorer and I think that is one of the major reasons he was undervalued throughout his career. He just did so many things on the floor and his impact from the PG position was very real. If Rondo indeed becomes the next Fat Lever, oh gosh.

2. Alvin Robertson - 9.4 RbR - Excellent lead guard for the Spurs, though he was often remembered for his time with Bucks in the late 80s/early 90s. Many people considered him the preeminent ball-thief of his day.

Robertson was a four-time all-star, voted DPOY, MIP, two-time all-defensive 1st team, four-time all defensive 2nd team, one-time All-NBA 2nd team. Robertson ranks #1, overall, in career steal percentage.

3. Rajon Rondo - 8.9 RbR

Furthermore, Rondo is a ball-thief, as well. While many consider his performance in that aspect of the game to have fallen off the table since last year, it really hasn't. Yes, there was a slight drop-off but the difference is what amounts to .55%. The change was more in defensive philosophy than actual performance, imo.

Again, lets compare him to players in the past and see what comes up.

For all combined seasons, from 1946-47 to 2007-08, 6-3 or shorter, played in the NBA, primary career position G, requiring Steal Pct >= 3.3 and Minutes Played >= 4000, sorted by descending Steal Pct.

As I stated above, Robertson ranks 1st, all time. There are only 15 players with at least 4000 MP that have recorded a Stl% over 3.3.

Tied for 13th are Rondo and Chris Paul. If Rondo had somehow managed to retain his ball-thievery from season before, Rondo would have been tied for 5th all-time with Jerry West, fwiw. Fat Lever just missed the cut-off, btw, at 3.2 Stl%.

So, right now, it's looking like Alvin Robertson, a four-time all-star and former DPOY, and Fat Lever, a two-time all-star and twice top-10 MVP candidate, are his most likely comps.

Well, lets tweak the criteria and see what we get.

If we allow a little wiggle room and lower the Reb% to 8.5 and leave everything all the same, we get an additional three players. None of the three approach Rondo's stealing ability, though. Not even close. Two of those names are known to most people, as well (Sidney Moncrief and Steve Francis.)

So, lets find someone who rebounds and steals because that is what we are trying to match. Lowering the Reb% to 8.0% and the Stl% to 3.0%, everything else constant, we now have a list of four players.

Fat Lever
Alvin Robertson
Rajon Rondo
Art Williams

Art "Hambone" Williams is an interesting player, no doubt, but he wasn't able to do the things Rondo can offensively. In a faster-paced, higher-scoring environment, Hambone never scored more than 13.3 Pts/36 mins. Rondo scored 12.7 Pts/36 this year as a fourth option on a slower-paced team.

So Lever and Robertson are his two major comps, imo.

Lever had two seasons with a TS% >= .515 (what Rondo put up this season) and one other season at .514. He also recorded those seasons after already playing 11,000 career MP.

Robertson had seven seasons with a TS% >= .515. He also had another season with a .513.

All things considered, Lever appears to be the best comp, imo, especially when you consider turnovers. While Robertson was by no means bad in this regard, when you factor in playmaking for teammates, Robertson was turnover prone compared to both Rondo and Lever.

Like I said, Rondo's comp appears to be Lever. With that being said, he is still a smidge behind Robertson and a bit to go to match Lever (pace-adjusted, of course.)

In the summer of 1990 Fat Lever hit free agency at the age of 30. On his new contract, the first year was $1.519M. That 1st year's salary was ~2.119 times more than the league average NBA salary ($.717M.)

Just for Schlitz and giggles, the MLE is likely to be $5.50M by the time Rondo is eligible for his extension. Lever's fair value in today's NBA would be somewhere around $11.655M (assuming that he was priced correctly in 1990.) Rondo still has next year to improve on his game.

By my fair salary calculations, Rondo is currently worth $13,025,539.50. While some may consider that high, it is scaled in relation to what others in the league are making, per their performance. The same system says Garnett was worth $21,093,614.15 and Pierce $17,508,421.27 this season.

A member of the APBR messageboard, davis21wylie2121, uses WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) to calculate fair salary. He puts Rondo at $11,760,880. He has Garnett at $22,630,399 and Pierce at $21,853,494, btw.

Long story short, by the time Rondo comes up for extension, at minimum I think he would fetch $12M per year and it wouldn't be the least bit overpaying. If Ainge can somehow tie him up at a cheaper AAV, I would be ecstatic.

great post, thank you for sharing that information

[UGA Hayes]

I'm pretty happy we got Atlanta for a first round series b/c it gives Rondo a favorable matchup to get his feet wet. Atlanta really has no speed in their backcourt and it showed. Even when they backed off Rondo he was getting into the lane easily.

[GuyClinch]

By my fair salary calculations, Rondo is currently worth $13,025,539.50. While some may consider that high, it is scaled in relation to what others in the league are making, per their performance. The same system says Garnett was worth $21,093,614.15 and Pierce $17,508,421.27 this season.

NBA pay is not merit based though. That's where your statistics fail.. Guys who get the 'glory' stats get the money. Fat Lever was averaging around 18 - 19 ppg in his hey-day. Rondo is averaging 10.

That's a huge difference at the NBA level. Rondo might be WORTH alot but I doubt he gets paid that much. That's why players are so "selfish." More stats = more money.

Pete

[sully00]

Folks, when eligible for an extension it will be a 5 year deal, as Rondo will still have one to go on his rookie deal. 10 mil per is not near the max, a max contract is 5 years 80 mil, so 5 years 50 mil is a lot closer to half of a max contract than it is to a max contract.

Teams will not view Rondo's stats and say look he plays with 3 allstars of course he can play well. Quite the opposite, they will think that he is capable of significantly more offensive production if he had more of a role in the offense. At the pg spot it will be about winning, teams would love to steal a young pg with a championship pedigree.

5 years 45-50 mil is what to expect, it is pretty universal. Devon Harris got 50 without approaching Rondo's production or securing a starting job. Top flight backups get full MLE deals averaging 6 mil per.

While not the same class of rebounder as Rondo and the others, I have always thought and still do that Rondo is most comparable to Mo Cheeks, and frankly this team's best comparison is the '83 Sixers.

I like how that story ends.

[UGA Hayes]

Rondo is going to get a big contract, given that it doesn't even come up for a few more years.

[sully00]

Rondo is eligible for an extension next offseason.

[tlee324]

8-10 million a year, would be ideal. I don't think the C's would or should go over that. I love Rajon a lot, but you can't break the bank for a PG unless he's one of the surefire all-NBA teamers.... I'm not sure he's going to be that, although I do think he's very good and will continue to be. I don't think he's to be paid more than what Tony Parker or Manu Ginobili get... and I actually think Manu's a bit underpaid....

[GuyClinch]

Teams will not view Rondo's stats and say look he plays with 3 allstars of course he can play well. Quite the opposite, they will think that he is capable of significantly more offensive production if he had more of a role in the offense. At the pg spot it will be about winning, teams would love to steal a young pg with a championship pedigree.

I tend to agree that Harris represents the max upside of Rondo's pay check for right now. I think though that Harris was averaging around 15ppg when he got the extension, no?

The premise of the thread was RIGHT NOW - after a year of say 18/8/6 play next year he of course could be making $12/per

Pete

[Bleeding Green]

I think Danny Ainge knows how valuable Rondo is; he's not going anywhere. 10-12 million per year right now would be great. I would have no problems giving him a near-max contract when his current deal runs out if he progresses as I think he should. Luckily it won't come to that, because Rondo doesn't score enough to warrant such a contract. Score one more for Ainge.