First, IMO we have a few main rotation problems.
1.) Tony Allen needs minutes, I am not leaving this alone. Offensively he is not Antoine Walker. His counterpart PER is best on team, he has the second best defensive + / -, pretty good steal stats and such, and according to adjusted + / - - when applied to 5 man units, when Tony Allen replaces Ray in our starting lineup we have the 2nd best defensive lineup in the league, and the 8th best overall lineup. In fact it indicates Tony is the better fit.
I am not saying this means Tony should start, or play more than Ray. I feel that Ray is definitely the better overall player. But even if Tony doesn't fill up the statsheet, and even if his game isn't always pretty, he is not as far behind Ray as people assume. Where stats indicate fire, there is at least smoke. Plus Ray could probably benefit by getting slightly more rest.
Last year various indicators also placed Tony as a very solid player (better than Posey for example) despite being skewed due to missed games and horrendous start of season play.
IMO Tony should be averaging between 20-24 mpg on average, + or -, to be properly utilized. I'd like to come out and say that we are so good that we can go all the way without fully utilizing our assets, but IMO we can't. That means we have to live and die with Tony playing X amount of minutes IMO.
If his confidence is shot, the big 3 need to consult a psychiatrist, step up in front of the team before game 7, and some isht that'll give his confidence a boost. If we must start be confident, then he must start and Ray becomes are sixth man.
2.) Ray Allen & Sam Cassell in the backcourt does not work, especially aginst the Hawks. Hell, House & doesn't work well, and this is arguably worse. Ray is a serviceable but soft and average at best defender. Cassell is a doormat. Cassell makes up for that by the way he runs the point, but especially at this point in his career his offensive game isn't that much different from a lesser version of Ray's game. Rondo complements Ray, and to a lesser extent Cassell. Tony Allen best complements Cassell, by a long shot.
3.) On this note, I'll give Doc that he is very knowledgeable and probably has some logic behind what he has been doing. IMO he should be using his knowledge and hunches to tweak whatever rotation and/or related rules arw initially instituted. But, IMO he needs to pay more attention to theoretical logic and common sense before instituting a rotation or system. Towards the end of last night's game he put out a lineup of Perk KG Posey Ray and Cassell. Very soft defense in the backcourt (especially since Posey wasn't having a night like he had in game 5), no slashing ability, at least Perk was in to rebound, but especially if KG isn't going to work in the post the lineup does not work on either end of the floor. Tony Allen complements Posey, and sometimes Ray. PP complements Posey sometimes if it can worl defensively. Ray does not complement Posey, nor Cassell.
4.) Going back to the last month or two, since Cassell was signed, we get off to a fast start, and slowly see our lead dwindle when guys are subbed out, and when Rondo is out of the game. This I nothing new, but IMO it particularly hurts us versus the Hawks since they bring Childress (a very underrated player) off the bench as well as Pachulia (about as good as Horford in different ways IMO).
Suggested solution, or part of it: With 4 minutes left in either the 1st or 3rd quarter, sub out both Rondo and Ray. Bring in Cassell and TA. Rondo subs back in at the beginning of the 2nd and 4th - IMO he is needed while KG & PP are resting - he is arguably our second most important player even if he is not second best. Bring in Ray shortly thereafter - unless TA is playing rather well and we want Posey at SF. I do however think that Posey @ PF can work beginning of the 2nd and 4th. Eventually Tony and Posey are subbed back out, but if either is playing particularly well they come back with 3-4 minutes left in the half, depending on who is playing well, who is not playing so well, and what matchups allow.
.....
Next: I know this is far fetched and unnecessary at this point, but,
Do any of you think its remotely possible that both Doc and Rick Carlisle would be willing to serve as assistants under Avery Johnson. I don't propose this to criticize Doc - rather I feel it would simply make for an absolutely ideal coaching staff. Could it work, I think Doc and Rick would see the logic and probaby assume the three of em could learn a lot from one another.
Doc and Rick's strengths and weaknesses are exactly opposite - they complement one another perfectly. Avery Johnson is head coach for three reasons:
1.) Doc and Rick are such complete opposites a third guy is needed to ensure balance between them.
2.) He has the personality of an instgator and portrays more self confidence on the sidelines than either Doc or Rick. He makes the best front man of the 3
3.) IMO, he is the best of the 3 when it comes to in-game decisions
Well...okay, I just saw that Rick Carlisle just took the Mavs' job. Oh well. Maybe Tom Thibodeau could be hois substitution.
One last note: PJ Brown was kinda done last season. He is a good presence in the locker room, and is serviceable when other options don't work. I don't like to see him as an option over Baby, who also has sufficient size to play C.
Summary of Rotation Problems, Suggestions, and a little more
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Summary of Rotation Problems, Suggestions, and a little more
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- RealGM
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- RealGM
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celtics543 wrote:We need Rajon Rondo in the game as much as possible. When he's in, the Celts get out to a huge lead, then he comes out and we slowly lose it.
I agree, which is why IMO, when he is on the bench, KG and PP should be on the floor, and TA should be guarding JJ. It tempers any ill effects
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I have been saying to play Tony for two games now. Not many have even backed me on this so far. I think Posey should be played at PF on Smith and give Tony some minutes in the swing spot. He can play Johnson one-on-one defensively and make him work on the defenive side trying to stop Tony from driving. If we are going to double Johnson, then taking Perk out of the starting lineup isn't a bad idea as he doesn't rotate fast enough.