Conspiracy Theory Time

[MyInsatiableOne]

The only conspiracy I would put forward is that the lottery is rigged not to reward the worst teams with the No. 1 overall pick. Knicks, us with Duncan, us last year, and onwards.

In my opinion they're going out of their way to discourage "tanking" but, lets be real, the Heat really were the worst team in the NBA this season.

That's why my idea of seeding all non-playoff teams in order of the best record and giving the top pick to the best team not in the playoffs, the second pick to the next best team, etc is the best. It discourages tanking and also helps the teams that just missed out on the playoffs get over the hump. The vast majority of the time a team that is dead last in the league stays dead last even with a new star out of college.

[tombattor]

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That's why my idea of seeding all non-playoff teams in order of the best record and giving the top pick to the best team not in the playoffs, the second pick to the next best team, etc is the best. It discourages tanking and also helps the teams that just missed out on the playoffs get over the hump. The vast majority of the time a team that is dead last in the league stays dead last even with a new star out of college.

But then you'll see Denver, GS and even Houston w/o Yao, tanking to just miss the playoffs. Imagine what the Rockets will look like next year with Rose at the 1? Although come to think of it, it would be pretty cool to see Rose playing with T-Mac and Yao, so maybe it's a good idea after all.

[MyInsatiableOne]

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But then you'll see Denver, GS and even Houston w/o Yao, tanking to just miss the playoffs. Imagine what the Rockets will look like next year with Rose at the 1? Although come to think of it, it would be pretty cool to see Rose playing with T-Mac and Yao, so maybe it's a good idea after all.

True, there is that side of it, but tanking to *just* miss the playoffs should be much more obvious and easier to stop, don't you think?

[tombattor]

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True, there is that side of it, but tanking to *just* miss the playoffs should be much more obvious and easier to stop, don't you think?

Not sure how easy it would be to stop it. It's hard to quantify things like that, which is why you can't really do anything about teams tanking in current situation.

If a team like the Rockets went on to lose 7 of 8 after winning 22 or whatever in a row, I think you can attribute the winning streak to luck and say losing 7 of 8 is the effect of Yao's injury.

Even the best teams lose to crappy teams from time to time when they have something to play for, so I don't know how easy it is to spot out a borderline playoff team tanking.

[MyInsatiableOne]

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Not sure how easy it would be to stop it. It's hard to quantify things like that, which is why you can't really do anything about teams tanking in current situation.

If a team like the Rockets went on to lose 7 of 8 after winning 22 or whatever in a row, I think you can attribute the winning streak to luck and say losing 7 of 8 is the effect of Yao's injury.

Even the best teams lose to crappy teams from time to time when they have something to play for, so I don't know how easy it is to spot out a borderline playoff team tanking.

How come in the NFL they don't have this problem when they just assign the picks based on records?

[BrokenLeftyJumper]

How come in the NFL they don't have this problem when they just assign the picks based on records?

I would say they do have the same problem. There have been plenty of NFL teams that have had crap records and didn't necessarily go all out to win games towards the end of the season. Teams start trying new QB's, resting veteran guys who might play if the games were to mean anything, playing some younger players, etc.

I also don't think you see it as much in the NFL because the NFL draft is a bit more of a crapshoot than the NBA draft. Those top 5 picks in the NFL draft often have questionable value b/c of the amount of money your going to have spend on an unproven rookie, which is minimized in the NBA by the rookie scale contracts. Additionally, it seems like top NFL draft picks are far more likely to bust than top NBA draft picks.

[tombattor]

How come in the NFL they don't have this problem when they just assign the picks based on records?

I would say they do have the same problem. There have been plenty of NFL teams that have had crap records and didn't necessarily go all out to win games towards the end of the season. Teams start trying new QB's, resting veteran guys who might play if the games were to mean anything, playing some younger players, etc.

I also don't think you see it as much in the NFL because the NFL draft is a bit more of a crapshoot than the NBA draft. Those top 5 picks in the NFL draft often have questionable value b/c of the amount of money your going to have spend on an unproven rookie, which is minimized in the NBA by the rookie scale contracts. Additionally, it seems like top NFL draft picks are far more likely to bust than top NBA draft picks.

Yeah, I agree. The thing is, in basketball, everyone pretty much plays the same game, so if you can dribble, shoot, run or whatever, it means you can play basketball.

OTOH in football, not every player is doing the same thing. Some players do nothing but block, some only throw, some only kick, some only play D, etc. And the system a team runs also have a lot to do with a player's effectiveness. For example, whether a team runs a 4-3 or 3-4 D, can mean a lot to DLs and LBs' productivity.

[MyInsatiableOne]

^^Good points.

I still think my idea would make for a more competitive league where the almost-good teams get over the hump to compete with the teams that are already there. I dunno, can't come up with anything better

[15th overall]

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It's actually even more naive to think that Stern would rig the NBA at the risk of jeopardizing the league's integrity. He and the NBA are making a ton of money without rigging the lottery. So the risk/reward doesn't make it worth the gamble.

Besides, rigging the draft lottery, of all things, is what petty and short-sighted people who can't see the big picture would think. The big picture is that the NBA is continuing to be very successful as the undisputed best basketball league in the world. David Stern may be a sleaze bag, but he's not dumb. Some of you guys on the other hand...

Real classy with the insults tom but your actually helping with my whole argument here. What risk is there if there are no witnesses to this "lottery" process? How do you know that past rigjobs arent fattening Stern's wallet right now? You don't. You can't.

I'm not making claims that I know to be true here. I just know that it can't be completely dismissed. And as spf pointed out there's a whole other side to the coin (I still think us and the Bucks got "punished" last year). These kinds of things are usually a lot more complicated than anyone thinks.

As Tommy Lee Jones says in MIB:

A person is smart. People are dumb, panicky dangerous animals and you know it. Fifteen hundred years ago everybody knew the Earth was the center of the universe. Five hundred years ago, everybody knew the Earth was flat, and fifteen minutes ago, you knew that [David Stern was on the level]. Imagine what you'll know tomorrow.

[MyInsatiableOne]

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This is sorta my point, which is that while I don't *think* anything shady is going on, it would absolutely 100% NOT surprise me if it were revealed someday that there WERE shady dealings in the NBA, among them the lottery.

[Bleeding Green]

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No kidding. It's a **** system, the lottery, but it's not going to be going away any time soon.

What? No. The system is fine.

[BrokenLeftyJumper]

Is it possible that the lottery is rigged? Sure, anything is possible. The problem with the argument of the conspiracy theorists is that their best argument seems to be "my team got screwed, there must be a conspiracy" which is clearly just an attempt to blame someone or something for what really is just bad luck and bad management.

I don't see how the fact the lottery goes on behind closed doors is necessarily evidence of the lottery being rigged. That's a big leap of faith in my opinion. As someone already mentioned, one big reason might be b/c the first pick comes out first, therefore ruining the made for TV spectacle. And as far as the lotto being done behind closed doors, its done outside the view of the public but not the view of the owners. The owners or their representatives are all in there when the lotto is done for real, its not like Stern and some other NBA cronies conduct the lotto in a small room with no windows and comes out and tells the owners how it went down. Which leads me to my next point, why would the owners allow Stern to rig the lottery and additionally why would Stern rig the lottery and risk his job? The Owners all want their individual franchise to be successful, they would not accept getting screwed over in the lottery. And Stern has no ownership interest in the NBA as far as I know, he is paid by the owners to run the league. If the owners want to fire him tomorrow, they could. So why would he risk his job to rig the lottery?

Not to mention, why would he risk his job to help out teams like Milwaukee, Portland, Toronto, etc? This is where I think the conspiracy theorists argument falls apart completely. Look at the entire history of the lottery. Do you see any favoring of big market teams? Or can you provide any sort of other rhyme or reason as to why certain teams won the lottery in certain years? No. The history of the lottery looks pretty damn random to me, exactly the point of a lottery.

[tombattor]

BrokenLeftyJumper, you've nailed it on the head. Why do we have so many morons who fail to see logic and common sense is beyond me.

Just a bunch of sour grape whiners, if you ask me.