Allen, " I am a better player than Pose"

[Jammer]

The thing that astounds me in this thread is that people are using PER to rate players. Any stat that ranks Leon Powe as the 22nd best player in the NBA during the 2007-2008 NBA season should be laughed at, ridiculed, and shown the door, period.

I'm not going to weigh in on this because I'm going to try to give Tony a 5th or 6th chance to prove that he's not a complete cancer, but my favorite part of the thread so far was where an earlier poster said that Sebustian Telfair called Tony Allen the heart and soul of a team that was in the middle of an historic 18-game losing streak and acted like that is a good thing. Who is the heart and soul of current stock market collapse? Can we get him a job within the organization and give him more responsibility than he has now?

Show me one list where Leon is 22nd in NET PER (His own PER minus his MAN's PER).

Leon's MAN (over 82 games) had the 2nd best PER of any opponent last year (Powe's man, over 82 games, averaged a PER of 19.6). So, for all intents and purposes, Powe is very weak link on defense, especially when played at center.

Leon is a long way from 22nd. He had a nice offensive PER, but he was abused at the defensive end,
and PER made it very clear he was abused on defense (only Scot Pollard was worse). Because of that there were many situations were Doc kept Powe off the court (just as Doc did with Eddie House).

[EJay33]

The Tony Allen story is yet to be written, that's about all you guys can say in his defense at this point when comparing him to James Posey. Tony can drive and get to the line, great - we we have a guy who needs the ball in his hands to be effective when we've already got three hall of famers on the court. Give me the guy who can spread the floor and who can be counted on to make a smart play every single trip down the court on both ends.

Tony Allen is like a broke man's Ricky Davis. Posey can defend Josh Smith, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant on one end, spread the floor and keep the defense honest on the other end, and take charges and make timely plays. He is an excellent role player and you guys aren't giving him the credit he deserves. That is why a contending team gave up the full MLE to him at max years. Sure, there are going to be bad salaries here and there, but when free agency rolls around and James Posey is being courted by six or seven teams and Tony Allen was an unrestricted free agent who as far as I know didn't get a single offer from other teams that says something. This didn't happen like 5 years ago, this happened within the last 2 months. This means nothing to any of you?

You guys are talking about what Tony Allen could become, not what he is. I see a guy who had all the physical tools who has consistently made poor decisions on and off the court and I have my doubts if he can get it together, even on this current team with the excellent leadership we have in place. Which is pathetic.

As far as his point guard abilities go, I still won't acknowledge this as a strength. This has been tried a few times during the regular season with disastrous results. So far the verdict would have to be that Tony Allen can not be an effective NBA point guard. I cringe when I see his borderline MR mind trying to make decisions on the fly with the ball in his hands.

Also, the 18-game losing streak - I actually am aware that Tony Allen's injury happened in the early stages of the streak. Really, what happened that year was Tony had a few sporadic big scoring games before he was finally granted consistent big minutes. December 15th against Denver he played the whole game and then played in 32+ minutes in each game except for one 23 point blowout loss to the Clippers until his knee injury. The team went 4-9 in those games. I really am having a hard time getting excited that Tony Allen averaged 19ppg during a stretch where the team won 30% of its games during a season when the Celtics were so bad that teams didn't even take them seriously and usually cruised to easy victories with their backups getting a larger share of the minutes than usual.

I've got news for you, James Posey in his career has had his stretches where he has averaged 19ppg for a few games, too. He's done it a lot more than TA. He's even put up big stats on teams that (wait for it..) actually won games in the league!! More importantly, since both are clearly roleplayers on the Celtics Posey has demonstrated that he can do what he needs to do to help teams win. He's like a poor man's Robert Horry, defends multiple positions including top-tier offense talent, makes smart plays and hits big shots.

TA has shown that he will pout about inconsistent minutes and not being in rhythm, and when he did get rare chances last year he was bad. We'll see how it works out. He had a good rookie year and has been bad ever since. I would rather see Miles get healthy and earn these available minutes because he has actually proven that he can play in this league. I'd rather not watch TA learn to play the right way on the job while he have a team that should be competing for championships if i can help it.

[eloper]

PER is a function of usage, so players who use possessions at a high rate (like Antoine Walker for instance) are generally going to be rated higher than players who use possessions at a lower rate (like James Posey).

Because Tony and Posey use possessions at such a different rate, it's awfully difficult to compare them. Last year Tony had a pretty horrible oRtg, meaning he was pretty inefficient with his possessions. Through his career, his offensive efficiency has generally been pretty average. Posey meanwhile has historicially posted an excellent oRtg, meaning he uses his possessions very efficiently (high percentage scorer, low turnovers, etc), however he rarely uses his possessions and as a result, has a lowish PER. So what's that all mean?

Tony Allen = High usage, average efficiency guy
James Posey = Low usage, high efficiency guy

Basically, they're totally different players. It's hard to know what Tony would do if he limited how many possessions he would use (would his efficiency go up? The general belief is a player would be picking and choosing his spots better, so it should, but it's never really been proven statistically). What about if Posey were asked to score more? How would his efficiency suffer?

I'd contend that with this team, Tony fits in better with the second unit as he can create for himself and score at a high rate when no one else wants to. Posey however should in theory fit in better with the first unit, because he minimizes mistakes, takes advantage of his few possessions, and doesn't need the ball (which is at all times basically in Pierce/Allen/KG hands).

[Pogue Mahone]

GG5 has bingo. Just a little FYI but 1 unit of USG-R (possession per 40) is roughly equal to .61 points of PER. It allows for a quick, back of the envelope adjustment. Theoretically, at least.

I know we have spoken about this in the past, GG5, but I think one of the major shortcomings of PER is it's ability to handle usage. IMO, at least. Hypothetically speaking, you could be below average in shooting efficiencies and be somewhat turnover prone and still finish with a somewhat healthy PER. You would just need to use a hell of a lot of possessions.

Godmoney, in a nutshell, the reason Powe performed so well in PER and other metrics are that he was a very good offensive rebounder, he was incredibly efficient and he used a lot of possessions. BTW, it's Carl Landry. I think maybe you were confusing him with Kyle Lowry (PG, Memphis, formerly Villanova.)

[ryaningf]

Tony Allen is like a broke man's Ricky Davis. Posey can defend Josh Smith, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant on one end, spread the floor and keep the defense honest on the other end, and take charges and make timely plays. He is an excellent role player and you guys aren't giving him the credit he deserves. That is why a contending team gave up the full MLE to him at max years. Sure, there are going to be bad salaries here and there, but when free agency rolls around and James Posey is being courted by six or seven teams and Tony Allen was an unrestricted free agent who as far as I know didn't get a single offer from other teams that says something. This didn't happen like 5 years ago, this happened within the last 2 months. This means nothing to any of you?

It's a complete fallacy to say that Posey can defend Josh Smith, LeBron, and Kobe. He was consistently burned by those three during the playoffs. Pose no longer has the quickness or strength to compete successfully against those 3. Sometimes he might guess right, because he has great BB IQ, but physically he could not stay with those 3. In fact, last season his perimeter defense was average at best. He excels in the team defense because he is a superior role player and understands how he fits into the team as a whole. And just because Pose got offers and Tony didn't doesn't mean much if anything. Pose just came off a big role in a championship season and was rewarded with an outrageous contract (in years 3/4/5). Tony came off a season which he got inconsistent minutes and was struggling to regain his health following major knee surgery. So, yes, that means nothing to any of us because we, unlike you, have the ability to take things in context.

You guys are talking about what Tony Allen could become, not what he is. I see a guy who had all the physical tools who has consistently made poor decisions on and off the court and I have my doubts if he can get it together, even on this current team with the excellent leadership we have in place. Which is pathetic.

The only thing pathetic is your rationale and your inability to put Tony's career in its proper context. With health, Tony has always produced. With continued health this season, he will produce. End of discussion.

As far as his point guard abilities go, I still won't acknowledge this as a strength. This has been tried a few times during the regular season with disastrous results. So far the verdict would have to be that Tony Allen can not be an effective NBA point guard. I cringe when I see his borderline MR mind trying to make decisions on the fly with the ball in his hands.

The strength is this: he can bring the ball up the court when the other team tries to upset the flow of the offense by trapping and pressing the point guard. That's a nice skill to have and it allows Eddie House to play more effectively. As for your 'borderline MR' comment, that's sick. Again, if you could appreciate the importance of context you'd realize that Tony's decision making ability increases as his health (and confidence in his health) increases. With health, Tony is a fine decision maker with the basketball in his hands.

Also, the 18-game losing streak - I actually am aware that Tony Allen's injury happened in the early stages of the streak. Really, what happened that year was Tony had a few sporadic big scoring games before he was finally granted consistent big minutes. December 15th against Denver he played the whole game and then played in 32+ minutes in each game except for one 23 point blowout loss to the Clippers until his knee injury. The team went 4-9 in those games. I really am having a hard time getting excited that Tony Allen averaged 19ppg during a stretch where the team won 30% of its games during a season when the Celtics were so bad that teams didn't even take them seriously and usually cruised to easy victories with their backups getting a larger share of the minutes than usual.

You're not excited because that stretch invalidates your already shaky argument. What happened in 2006/2007 is that TA finally regained his health, his confidence, and his role. With Paul Pierce out, TA showed he could carry a team offensively and defensively for stretches. That team didn't win because that was a bad team. Lots of fine players aren't good enough to lift their team to even mediocrity, let alone winning basketball.

I've got news for you, James Posey in his career has had his stretches where he has averaged 19ppg for a few games, too. He's done it a lot more than TA. He's even put up big stats on teams that (wait for it..) actually won games in the league!! More importantly, since both are clearly roleplayers on the Celtics Posey has demonstrated that he can do what he needs to do to help teams win. He's like a poor man's Robert Horry, defends multiple positions including top-tier offense talent, makes smart plays and hits big shots.

Posey played defense and made huge shots. But when those shots weren't falling (he didn't make every big shot he took), then the 2nd team's offense was in a huge bind. We were a jump shooting team who played great defense...and when we couldn't make our jump shoots, we have huge problems scoring. With TA, who has a pretty decent 3 point shot (as you will see in this upcoming season), taking Pose's spot, we'll be able to have a more balanced, less jumpshooting-centered team, which should make us much more efficient on offense (and thus a better team). When was the last time Posey got to the line 16 times, like TA did last night? Posey was feast or famine on offense last season, TA is going to be much more consistent because he gets to the line and shoots high percentage shots (like layups) much more often than Posey, who usually just sat behind the 3 point line and waited for a pass.

TA has shown that he will pout about inconsistent minutes and not being in rhythm, and when he did get rare chances last year he was bad. We'll see how it works out. He had a good rookie year and has been bad ever since. I would rather see Miles get healthy and earn these available minutes because he has actually proven that he can play in this league. I'd rather not watch TA learn to play the right way on the job while he have a team that should be competing for championships if i can help it.

Untrue and unfair. TA is all about ubuntu and he's never cried about PT. 2nd, he's proven he can play in this league, your biased opinion not withstanding. It's strange that you'd advocate Miles over TA, when it's Miles who is now dealing with injury issues while TA has seemingly turned that corner in his career.

[eloper]

I know we have spoken about this in the past, GG5, but I think one of the major shortcomings of PER is it's ability to handle usage. IMO, at least. Hypothetically speaking, you could be below average in shooting efficiencies and be somewhat turnover prone and still finish with a somewhat healthy PER. You would just need to use a hell of a lot of possessions.

Yup, which is why it's somewhat useless to use PER in an argument about players with totally different usage rates. Now if I'm comparing two guys with close usage rates, PER is a tremendously helpful tool (and the possession=.61 points conversion has less room for error), but using PER to compare Tony and Posey is pretty faulty. Who's to say whether a high usage average efficiency or average usage high efficiency guy is a better player? It completely depends on the situation they're in and the player's they're playing with, there is no clear definite "this guy is a better player" in that sort of case.

[humblebum]

OK here's a good question. If Posey was such a great player how come Ray Allen and Paul Pierce played such high minutes last season? I mean clearly Posey should have played about 30 MPG if he was this historically awesome role player, right? But Posey didn't play that many minutes, why?

Because he simply can't carry a large load of responsibility on the offensive end. He doesn't create offense, he relies on others to do so for him. There are a lot of players who could thrive alongside Ray, Paul and KG... that's why guys like Posey and House signed one-year deals with the Celtics... because it allows them to be successful which = big paydays. Posey did hit big shots and is valuable in spreading the floor there is no doubting that but people who are giving all this credit to Posey are missing the point; KG, Paul, and Ray (Rondo and Perk were the next most valuable pieces) lead this team to a championship... Posey was largely along for the ride.

So with TA this team has the ability to rest Paul and Ray for more minutes. Why? Because TA can handle a high usage rate. He can make plays for himself and others. He also is a much, much better on ball defender while being no slouch in team defense. It's true that TA has to prove himself, but what the TA believers are stating is that he HAS the ability to do so. Now he needs the opportunity.