Danny is Human: A Possibly Colossal Mistake

[sam_I_am]

If only he had made a similar collasal mistake prior to overpaying Mark Blount.

I don't care how good POB looks and I don't care if he leaves. Once his deal is over .... the big 3 will also be on the big decline and we won't want any complimentary players clogging up the roster.

[Bluewhale]

Danny is saving every penny for 2010 FA. POB is good, could be great, but he won't be the replacement of Big3 Danny want to reload at 2010.

[elrod enchilada]

That was my point. If Danny had tacked on a third year then POB would not be an issue in 2010, and we would not have to let him go to create cap space. We could have kept him for cheap money and had Bird rights in 2011. If he sucks, we lose next to nothing. If he pans out, we either have a very valuable trading asset or we have a good player we can sign after hitting the free agent market.

Time will tell.

[Pogue Mahone]

That was my point. If Danny had tacked on a third year then POB would not be an issue in 2010, and we would not have to let him go to create cap space. We could have kept him for cheap money and had Bird rights in 2011. If he sucks, we lose next to nothing. If he pans out, we either have a very valuable trading asset or we have a good player we can sign after hitting the free agent market.

Time will tell.

Yeah man, I got your original point. I actually agree with you. I think it is prudent, whenever possible, to provide as much flexibility contract-wise, as one can, especially when it comes to younger players. The thing is, unless the Celtics were going to divvy up the MLE (at the time, they were still offering up the entire nugget to James Posey), offering a third year wasn't possible. Now, if you want to make the argument that Posey wasn't worth the entire MLE and/or the Celtics should have been spreading their resources around a bit more, earlier in the signing period (after it was clear that Maggette wasn't signing), I would definitely and whole-heartedly agree.

Another slight point I didn't make in my previous post but, in hindsight, I should have:

Perhaps the intent is to build up Patrick O'Bryant as a trade chip.

While his value in the present can be argued, a year and a half of playing in a system that highlights your abilities, surrounded by three stars and a fourth player, Ray Allen, who used to be a star, will definitely build value. And the two year point is very important because I don't believe Danny is looking to make a splash into the free agent market of 2010. You overpay in free agency and Danny knows that (he has said as much.)

No, Danny has positioned himself to be able to deal some/all of the expiring contracts of Ray Allen, Brian Scalabrine, Eddie House, Tony Allen and Patrick O'Bryant, in the correct move, at or before the trading deadline of the 2009-2010 season. He will also have lower-priced upside guys to add to the pot, if needed. He will leverage other teams greed (to make a splash in 2010 free agency) by facilitating them in shedding salary. And I wouldn't be surprised if the move is something that nobody can see it right now.

[elrod enchilada]

You may well be right, Pogue. BfB has written along these lines, too, if I recall correctly. If James or Wade approaches the Feb 2010 trade deadline unsigned it might behoove Cleveland or Miami to make a deal and get something for them rather than risk losing them for nothing. There are other players not q
uite as good who might appeal to Danny as well.

But even in that case POB's trade value would be greater if he had the third year, not to beat a dead horse.

[Bluewhale]

Not exactly. Given POB's price tag, if you want to give him a third year contract, it could cost about 2M.

Danny is very reluctant to commit ANY salary in 2010, even it's 2M (Giddens has team option, we shall see.). Why? Because we can only barely offered a MAX if we let Rondo go. A 2M could kill our chance because for the BEST of BEST, they won't take any discount.

If Pierce option out with a smaller contract, it could change it and could help us land a big fish also keep rondo.

But again, in all case, 2M more cap space could be critical for a hit or barely hit (For example, Pierce may agree a Garnett-like contract starting from 16M, but think 14M is unacceptable). I don't think Danny want to risk the whole big picture for POB.

You never overpaid Wade or LBJ. You always underpaid no matter how much you paid. That's why 2010 so special.

[Celtsfan1980]

It all depends on a few factors. If they trade Ray Allen, then obviously we don't know what the team will look like. If they keep Ray Allen and he makes a salary around $13 million, then the 3 will total around $53 million. That's far less than they make currently. With Scalabrine's contract off the books, they will certainly have $4 or $5 million to afford for O'Bryant. If he shows he can be a good starter, then he may get an offer more than that and Boston wouldn't be able to match. It all depends on many circumstances, but you certainly can't consider it a bad decision at the moment.

[billfromBoston]

That was my point. If Danny had tacked on a third year then POB would not be an issue in 2010, and we would not have to let him go to create cap space. We could have kept him for cheap money and had Bird rights in 2011. If he sucks, we lose next to nothing. If he pans out, we either have a very valuable trading asset or we have a good player we can sign after hitting the free agent market.

Time will tell.

...isn't a two year deal grounds for early-bird rights, or is that just for rookie deals and not FA singees?

[Pogue Mahone]

That was my point. If Danny had tacked on a third year then POB would not be an issue in 2010, and we would not have to let him go to create cap space. We could have kept him for cheap money and had Bird rights in 2011. If he sucks, we lose next to nothing. If he pans out, we either have a very valuable trading asset or we have a good player we can sign after hitting the free agent market.

Time will tell.

...isn't a two year deal grounds for early-bird rights, or is that just for rookie deals and not FA singees?

Yes, he will be an Early Bird. That being said, that basically only entitles us to offer him from 130% of his previous year's salary up to the average annaul salary if we elected to use the Early Bird provision to attempt to resign him. The highest amount we could offer him in 2010-2011 would be the average salary (with maximum raises of 10.5% and a cap on the length of contract at five years.)

I would argue, though, that it would actually be in O'Bryant's best interest, assuming at least a mini-breakout, to sign a one year deal with the Celtics at the conclusion of 2009-2010. It will give him greater flexibility, either by extension or in a sign-and-trade. Furthermore, he would be able to get more in total salary by signing a one year extension.

[canman1971]

Is this really that important? Does anyone really feel that POB is going to be good enough to warrant some huge contract in 2 years? If he is, it probably means we will have one 1-2 more championships and all will be good. However, I just don't see it happening. Good signing? Yes. But not some groundbreaking signing.

[Gomes3PC]

Guys, it's preseason. Yes, I am VERY encouraged by POB's play. He has added a little bit of scoring down low in lieu of Perkins. While he has a ways to go, his size, rebounding, and ability to finish down low will help us out throughout the course of the season.

That being said, worrying about two years down teh line is a little silly. Two years ago and we thought we'd be enduring another 3-4 years of rebuilding. Two years is an eternity in sports, especially basketball given how often player trades occur. It will be a good problem to have if O'Bryant blossoms- that means we got two primo years from him while we're title contenders.

[Pogue Mahone]

Is this really that important? Does anyone really feel that POB is going to be good enough to warrant some huge contract in 2 years? If he is, it probably means we will have one 1-2 more championships and all will be good. However, I just don't see it happening. Good signing? Yes. But not some groundbreaking signing.

Elrod brought up a good point and most everyone is speaking hypothetically. Real GM is the name of the board. You know, where amateurs can pretend to be the GM and talk about their favorite team and what they would do or how they would handle certain situations. I have yet to see where someone has intimated that "POB ROXORS!!!11!!! LOL." We are merely speaking of the implications of what could happen. A more long range view of things.

Your first post of the thread talked about an overreaction. And your second post questions the validity and worthiness of what other people want to discuss. Did you think that people didn't see your first post? Was it really warranted to post your dissent a second time? We got your point, it's been noted and, yet, it is something we still want to talk about.

Do you think that other posters who say "I don't know how the CBA works ..." or "I don't know if it's possible ..." couldn't learn something from a thread like this? Perhaps Das Celticsbloggen is a bit more your speed, eh?

[Rocky5000]

His contract is so small, that I think a 2 year contract with a 3rd year team option was probably a possibility and would have been better for the Celtics than the deal we have in place. At this point in Patrick's career, he may not want any deal that extends longer than 2 years, for just the reason that Elrod pointed out, if he turns in a decent season & a half he's looking at an MLE contract and there are definitely parties willing to overpay. This is especially true in 2010, where many teams we have a lot of cleared cap room, but only a couple we end up with the Big Fish.

So I don't think it was Danny who didn't want a longer deal, as other people have said, but O'Bryant. I'm not sure how much leverage O'Bryant had in this situation, but probably enough to negotiate a shorter deal. Glen Davis did a similar thing last summer, he wanted the 2 year deal instead of the 3, so that he could hit free agency faster. It seems that may end up backfiring on him.