Troubling PER's after 3 Games (Posey Fallout ?)

[Jammer]

3 Games into the season, the team has started off offensively wretched.
Although the Celtics have the 2nd most efficient defense (behind the Lakers),
they can't seem to make open shots, inside or out.

FYI: James Posey's PER after 3 games: 19.63 (higher than any Celtic this year)

Celtics:

PG: Rondo 16.63 / Pruitt 16.22 / House -3.63 (yikes)

SG: Tony Allen 11.74 / Ray Allen 7.2 (team is going nowhere if this continues)

SF: Pierce 17.63 (team is going nowhere if this continues) / Tony Allen 11.74

PF: Powe 18.94 / Garnett 16.7 (off almost as much as Ray Allen's) / Scal 5.54

C: O'Bryant 3.34 / Perkins 3.3 / Davis 0.68

The thing that jumps out most is that the Celtics are getting killed at center.
I wonder why Big Fat Davis is even in the rotation. But hey, I don't get paid $5 million to sit O'Bryant, who might actually learn to develop the lower body strength in the weight room to hold his position on the block so that when he takes that jump hook he hasn't been already pushed under the side of the back board and maybe has a better angle than he is currently getting. I'd go with Perk and O'Bryant, and look into getting a 3rd true center. It improves shot blocking and team D.

The second biggest cause for concern is Ray Allen's, Eddie House's and Tony Allen's poor outside shooting. Not typical of shooting guards. Besides the obvious of simply hoping Ray and Eddie come around back to what's expected of them; I'd run more screen and rolls for Ray, set more picks, AND TELL PIERCE TO NOT HOLD THE BALL COMING DOWN THE FLOOR WHEN RAY IS OPEN IN THE CORNER. Pierce has done this 4 times now, going 1 for 4, when the correct team flow move was to whip the ball to an open Ray Allen. This is a coach's job to point out in a film room. Plus, it doesn't help having Ray scratch his head when he can't get the ball when he's wide open. These would have been better shots than what Ray has seen.

What's clear about the loss of Posey is that besides backing up Pierce and Garnett, having Posey at PF paired with Powe may have been small, but it kept guys like Davis off the floor.

And, the way these guys have been playing, Pruitt should be getting more burn at the PG and SG slots than he has. He can't do much worse, and would probably have been a PLUS in the INDIANA game.

[TheSheriff]

A lot of the bench guys have way too small a sample to even begin looking at the PER yet. It is way too early to look at the per of any player yet.

[AlCelticFan]

Yeah dude,

You might as well have just posted this:

"DUDE!!! THAT GAME SUCKED BRO!"

Because of course all the stats are going to be skewed when 1 out of three games we played the worst game of bball in forever.

[ParticleMan]

oh please, this Posey worship is getting out of hand. Posey's PER last year was abysmal, he was about our worst PER player in our regular rotation; his net PER was -3, higher only than Cassell, Brown, Pollard, Pruitt, and the eponymous Scal. second, Powe is our backup C, you list him at PF but really he's played more mins at C. posey at PF was one of our worst lineups statistically last year; he was -5 net in PER at PF. backup C is definitely a problem, but i don't see how Posey helps that. In any case, 3 games is way too small a sample to be saying anything. but arguing for posey using PERs is laughable, given the much larger sample of what he did last season.

[hickfromfrenchlick]

We've played 3 games. One game against a good team where we played sloppy but won, another decent win against a bad team, and a total clunker against a young team.

Big deal. 3 games.

[AlCelticFan]

Not everyone has college experience in mathematics. So I understand why some people don't understand that stats are of little value until you get a big sample size. Right now, the Hawks are ranked higher than the Celtics. Do you think they are better? No way!!!! Of course not!

[bceltic55]

No need to worry yet. I agree TA needs to do a better job, but Big Baby should get a chance to prove that he can do the job. If he cannot, then a trade will need to be made.

[AlCelticFan]

I really don't see Big Baby stepping up significantly.

IMHO the responsibility is one Leon and Tony, and to a lesser degree on Eddie.

I'd like to see more Powe; he is so efficient offensively.

[Jammer]

I really don't see Big Baby stepping up significantly.

IMHO the responsibility is one Leon and Tony, and to a lesser degree on Eddie.

I'd like to see more Powe; he is so efficient offensively.

Guys who have to step up if team is to Repeat:

(in order of need to step up)

Eddie House
Kendrick Perkins
Ray Allen
KG ( 2nd best NET PER in NBA last year, after 4 straight years of best NET PER)
Paul Pierce (10th best NET PER in NBA last year)
Tony Allen

Guys who need to Play More:

Patrick O'Bryant (drop Davis already, he has reached his ceiling, which is
stumpy arms, no vertical, no consistent shot)
Gabe Pruitt (when the other 4 guards are having scoring difficulties,
there is no reason to freeze Pruitt out of the rotation)

Guys who Need to Play Less:

Davis

Biggest Team Need: A true center like Mutombo or Mourning, or at least someone who really is
6' 11" with a mid-range jump shot like Joe Smith (for Scal + Giddens)

[sully00]

Bad games are bad games and I don't think it is time to look at stats in depth. At the same time you can see some things that are a little unnerving.

The center thing is not serious issue none of them are expected to be explosive scorers they are supposed to defend and rebound and to this point Perk has been himself and while you would want to see some scoring out of Baby everything else has been okay.

Ray has me nervous. I think he will be fine but he doesn't look that good at the moment.

The one thing that is plain as day though is Eddie House is awful running the point on that second unit. He isn't just **** himself up but the whole unit. Doc started to adjust by putting Pierce with them but that is not a perfect solution by any means. To be fair to Eddie, Pruitt was playing the point all preseason and now he is out of the rotation, so maybe it will get better but the fact that Eddie isn't a pg is not a revelation.

[Jammer]

This applies to the posts before sully's:

You can make all the snippy comments about whether 3 games is statistically significant,

but last year the same starters averaged
73.3 ppg, 28.3 rpg and 17.2 apg in 166 minutes;

while the bench averaged
27.2 ppg, 13.7 rpg and 5.2 apg in 74 minutes.

This year's breakdown is:

Starters: 58.4 ppg (-14.9), 32.7 rpg (+4.4), 12.2 apg ( -5 ) in 155.7 minutes ( -10.3)
Bench: 29.9 ppg (+2.7), 13 rpg (-0.7), 3.1 apg (-2.1) in 84.3 minutes (+10.3)

[Jammer]

Bad games are bad games and I don't think it is time to look at stats in depth. At the same time you can see some things that are a little unnerving.

Ray has me nervous. I think he will be fine but he doesn't look that good at the moment.

The one thing that is plain as day though is Eddie House is awful running the point on that second unit. He isn't just **** himself up but the whole unit. Doc started to adjust by putting Pierce with them but that is not a perfect solution by any means. To be fair to Eddie, Pruitt was playing the point all preseason and now he is out of the rotation, so maybe it will get better but the fact that Eddie isn't a pg is not a revelation.

True, Gabe Pruitt and Rondo basically played point in pre-season.

No one picked up on my comment that there were 4 times (over 3 games) where Pierce led the break and had Ray Allen one one side waiting for a pass that never came. Winning ball is pass the ball to the open man. The only time Havlicek ( 8 Championships) would have kept the ball in the middle is if he would have SCORED (note, not just simply shooting, but converting). Oh, the Celts got two points out of those 4 possessions where Pierce led a break where the Celtics had numbers (more men down than the defense has back).

[AlCelticFan]

Your second post of stats is just as meaningless as the first one!

3 GAMES. Let them do their thing.

[humblebum]

Trying to substantiate early season frustration with small sample size statistics is crazy. The team has clearly not come anywhere near hitting its groove. Rondo has looked really jittery out there, KG looks hesitant, Ray looks uncomfortable. Pierce and Powe are the ones who really look like themselves to a lesser extent TA and Perk. The team is still trying to figure out its identity. It's a new season. What's important is that they do figure things out and improve from now until the end of the season so that they can peak somewhere during the playoff run.

P.S. Posey is IRRELEVANT. Move on.

[BadWolf]

What worries me most is Rondo's jumper and FT - they seem to regress over the summer

[GuyClinch]

For the love of *** ..

There is nothing wrong with the OP. He didn't claim those statistics were PREDICTIVE. So stop giving him gruff about the sample size or using statistics.

it does serve to highlight that some players have played VERY POORLY - and that's the reason for the teams problems. I think most of the guys will step it up though.

Pete

[captain_cheapseats]

(Posey Fallout?)

FYI: James Posey's PER after 3 games: 19.63 (higher than any Celtic this year)

What's clear about the loss of Posey is that besides backing up Pierce and Garnett, having Posey at PF paired with Powe may have been small, but it kept guys like Davis off the floor.

Ugh. If you're going to hint that not keeping Posey may be responsible for our slow start, at least do us the favor of not using PER. Posey had a terrible PER last year and will almost certainly have a bad PER again this year, despite the good start. There are plenty of statistical measures out there for evaluating basketball players that capture Posey's contributions a lot better than PER does (like the win-share method, for example).

[Jammer]

...

You can make all the snippy comments about whether 3 games is statistically significant,

but last year the same starters averaged
73.3 ppg, 28.3 rpg and 17.2 apg in 166 minutes;

while the bench averaged
27.2 ppg, 13.7 rpg and 5.2 apg in 74 minutes.

This year's breakdown is:

Starters: 58.4 ppg (-14.9), 32.7 rpg (+4.4), 12.2 apg ( -5 ) in 155.7 minutes ( -10.3)
Bench: 29.9 ppg (+2.7), 13 rpg (-0.7), 3.1 apg (-2.1) in 84.3 minutes (+10.3)

Come on guys, don't have narrow vision.

A lot was said, about what's troubling, besides a reference to Posey.

The 15 point drop in scoring average by the starters is worrisome, even though their minutes were cut by 10. Remember, last year, they were PHENOMENAL.

Will KG shoot 56% again? I hope so. Will he maintain his 9.8 rpg average over 82 games? Maybe.

Will Perkins shoot 61% again? I hope so.
Perk can improve from 7 ppg and 6 rpg to maybe 7 ppg and 7 to 8 rpg.

Pierce should be the same, at only 31.

Ray Allen is the biggest concern, but he's got to shoot to score.

So, let's pretend I never mentioned Posey, and put things in a current context.

The team is still very starter dependent, and can't withstand too much of a drop off (not more than a few points) in the starters production.

Tony Allen's inconsistency will mean there will be games when he's not there, and who will pick up the slack besides Leon Powe if Eddie House is off.

If Eddie House isn't hitting, pull him, damn it, and give Pruitt a shot.

And Doc, play O'Bryant, you'll be thankful come playoff time if you don't let him rot.

And get another regulation size center, you'll be thankful come playoff time.

And, out of obligation, the NET PER's are now available for the first 3 games,
and they are surprising in that 6 players have very good NET PER's,
and 6 players are in the toilet.

For what it's worth, since it's only 3 games, here are the
NET PER's (Your PER minus your MAN's PER) for the first 3 games.

11.9 Tony Allen (obviously shutting his man down)
8.7 Leon Powe
8.2 Paul Pierce
5.8 Ray Allen (guy must be playing helluva DEFENSE)
5.0 Kevin Garnett (a career low which should improve dramatically)
4.3 Rajon Rondo

Brace yourself for the REST, the dashes mean NEGATIVE

-10.3 Brian Scalabrine
-14.2 Patrick O'Bryant
-14.4 Glen Davis
-16.5 Kendrick Perkins
-21.3 Gabe Pruitt
-23.6 Eddie House

Scary.