It's time to change the rotation

[cloverleaf]

This is exactly the kind of thread I like to see posted here, and after tonight, 10 games in, is a good time to make an initial assessment.

Of course it's early and any stats are limited, but I think the Powe-Davis combo has been decent so far. Take a look at 82games.com-- http://www.82games.com/0809/0809BOS2.HTM -- and you see that after the starting five, the two next best combinations have been with the four rotational backups and either Paul or Ray on the floor. Also, early in, Powe has the best +/- on the team.

They've been winning, and it hasn't been just a matter of the starters in the 3rd catching up after having fallen behind in the first. I think Doc's been experimenting of late with how to get more offense out of Paul and Ray by playing them with the '2nd team'. That includes kicking out to the wings after Powe establishes himself in the post. So the backups aren't necessarily maximizing their individual offense, but they are playing a more solid brand of balanced team ball than they were actually capable of last year.

The challenge right now seems to be being able to sub Ray and Paul out of the starting five more often so their minutes aren't too high. If Tony can handle it, I can see more of a balancing of that three's time all through the game.

[cisco]

I disagree with those that think Baby should lose some playing time. I think he is playing very well (Doc thinks so too). He is TRULY doing the little things (unlike the claim with Scal) to help the team win, especially on the defensive end. The guy hustles his butt off, creates space under the hoop to allow teammates to get the rebound if he doesn't, throws bodies around, takes charges and even plays the passing lanes. I really don't understand the disappointment with Davis, just a 2nd year player. Powe didn't look like a player until his second year.

[armageddon]

Strong possibility that Doc and Danny are showcasing TA and Davis for a potential trade at midseason. Also, knowing Doc's history, the rookies and POB won't see much if any time during the first half of the season. They will need half a season to learn the defense. Hopefully, Pruitt, Walker, and POB will be contributing strongly after the all star break.

[threrf23]

I also disagree re: the comments on Baby. He is not a Center but his body gives him the ability to play Center, because he is strong enough to provide a real presence inside and to match up with opposing Centers. By contrast, POB is a Center but his physique is not sufficient to provide a real presence inside or to match up with opposing Centers. He's not strong enough. And Baby is playing well on the defensive end, on the offensive end not so much perhaps but he pulls down offensive boards and is a capable finisher under the basket.

I also agree that there are times that we may need Bill Walker, and if he's not ready, perhaps we'll need an addition to the team. That said if PP is playing 40+ mpg in the playoffs, we only really need a back-up for 8 minutes or less except in the event of foul trouble. Between TA and Walker and maybe even KG I'm sure we'd be okay.

[threrf23]

I'm also not worried about House, but objectively Doc should consider changing the rotation. If you look at on/off court stats @ 82games.com, the entire second unit, regardless of whether Ray or PP is in with them, is struggling offensively, which could even help explain House's shooting if he is unable to play off of his teammates. One thing I might consider if I was Doc would be to have one of KG/Rondo in the game at all times. In any event, we've seen since last season that Rondo is rather important to the team, perhaps instead of trying to have one of the big 3 in the game at all times, Doc might want to consider Rondo part of a big 4 and aim to have 2 of the big 4 in the game at all times...

[threrf23]

Tony Allen is the guy I worry about the most. He seems to do well against weaker teams or blowouts but when the game is tight he plays like he's lost his confidence(like that horribe scoop shot he attempted vs. the Hawks).

It wouldnt surprise me if TAllen gets traded b4 the deadline for a small forward.

I'm not worried about Tony at all on the court, he can be dominant defensively and when he is not on his game offensively a.) we don't need him for so many minutes and b.) we can simply try and utilize him in a manner such that his offensive problems don't hurt us.

Also, I don't think he plays poorly when games are tight as much as I think we simply blow teams out when he plays well.

[canman1971]

Why is everyone, or some, so worried about what is going on? I know they have been inconsistent, but their 8-1. Pierce had a hurt hand and Rondo has been a little banged up. Every season presents new challenges. Bench players are bench players because, for the most part, they lack the consistency to produce. This team will be fine.

[Fencer reregistered]

In any event, we've seen since last season that Rondo is rather important to the team, perhaps instead of trying to have one of the big 3 in the game at all times, Doc might want to consider Rondo part of a big 4 and aim to have 2 of the big 4 in the game at all times...

I'm inclined to agree, but there's a problem. PGs commonly play in the low 30s in minutes. KG, due to his intensity, tends to play in the low 30s in minutes as well. It's tough to make the numbers work out.

[Havlicek17]

Here's a quote from today's Boston Globe:

"The Celtics' bench failed to match the Nuggets' - House was the only Boston reserve to score more than a point, while Denver's Linas Kleiza and J.R. Smith both finished with 10."

"They've been playing great until the last two games," coach Doc Rivers said of the Celtics' reserves. "The bench is going to be big for us because, really, after [tonight's visit to Milwaukee] is when I start using the bench more. They're going to have to play well because I'm going to use them, regardless. We can't go with Paul [ Pierce] and Ray playing 40 minutes every night. Those numbers have to come down to the 34-minute mark."

Yikes!

This is going to make the 2nd unit production even more key to our success. I expect the added pressure will force some changes in the rotation. I'd like to see more floor time for POB, Pruitt, and Walker, and would especially welcome a POB/Powe combo getting more minutes than BBD/Powe.

The next few weeks are going to be pretty interesting. If the bench does not step up, I expect we will be looking at opportunities to upgrade before the allstar break.

[captain_cheapseats]

I feel that Pruitt and POB need to take over for House and Davis in our rotation. We need to see if Pruitt and POB can help us win games because right now House and Davis aren't getting it done.

Nice post with good points r2g, but I disagree with your ultimate conclusion. The thing with Pruitt is that he had a chance to win the back-up PG spot this pre-season, and House outplayed him by a large margin. Doc has been very clear from the begining that he wouldn't mess with the rotation or expand the bench for the first 15 games, Pruitt and House both knew that, and House won the spot.

I think you have a better argument for POB, because you can at least contend that he played as well as Davis in the pre-season, and arguably earned the 9th spot in the rotation. However while I'm not really a huge Big Baby fan, even I can't deny that the guy has really picked up his play the last few games. He should at least get a chance to see if he can maintain his recent success before being replaced in the rotation.

[Rocky5000]

Pruitt replacing House isn't really necessary, I think Pruitt may need to replace Rondo on nights like last night, and House replace TA for a few minutes. Pruitt, House, Pierce, and Pruitt, House, R.Allen, can spread the floor much better than some of the lineups involving Rondo and TA that we have been seeing. House's shot seems to be coming back around, but Rondo's and Tony's have vanished.

Some of the layups Rondo passed up last night are inexcusable. His defense has been sloppy as well, he keeps stepping to the side and gambling for steals. Pruitt OTOH, played well with the first unit in preseason. He's taller than Rondo, has long arms like Rondo, can D up almost as well as Rondo (better than Rondo has lately), and he can shoot from distance better than Rondo. Rondo does have advantages over Pruitt, namely speed, ball-handling, bbiq, and court vision, but the rest of his game has been hurting him badly.

[captain_cheapseats]

There seems to be some TA hate floating around in this thread. Yes, he has been inconsistent offensively, but what has not wavered has been his defense.....I think you could make an excellent argument that TA is actually the best perimeter defender in the NBA right now. So I can deal with it if he goes a couple games where he doesn't really score.** Oh, and before everyone busts out their "you've got the green goggles on" jabs, keep in mind that the stats back me up on this one (lowest opp. PER in the NBA last year, on pace to do it again this year), so bring more than that if you want to disagree.

**It should also be mentioned that while TA has certainly been pretty poor on offense lately, it's not quite as bad as it looks in the box score. There have been some extremely dubious calls/non-calls against TA lately that have hurt his stats.....the worst was the ridiculous one against Toronto that should have been a 3-point play for TA, but somehow resulted in an offensive foul. He also couldn't get a call last night.

[Rocky5000]

Certainly TA has still kept his intensity on the defensive end up. It's the offensive end that is worrying me. He's been standing out by the 3 point line with his hands at his sides for most of our possessions and when he gets the ball, dives into the nearest defensive player. I don't know if our offense hasn't developed to the point where Tony runs different routes than Paul and Ray, but standing around isn't the best use of him.

[ryaningf]

Interesting discussion. About the only change I see coming after Saturday's game would be some time for Pruitt. Eddie has been up and down for most of the season and I think more than anything we need Pruitt for his defense and his ability to run the offense, two things he does better than House right now. If Doc is to be believed, and we're going to give more rest to Paul and Ray after Saturday's game, then he could possibly see a Pruitt/House/TA lineup off the bench in the future. If anyone can remember back to preseason, House had his great games when Pruitt was running point. I think we'll see Eddie's shot return when Pruitt gets some run.

POB is DOA for now. He's not doing anything, even in practice, or he wouldn't have been in street clothes for the past week (he did dress last night however). The only chance of him getting playing time is an injury to our top 4 bigs (KG, Perk, Powe, or Baby). Other than that, he has no chance of playing consistent minutes. Forget about him.

I also happen to think Baby is playing pretty well. He has real pick-and-pop potential and if we get him playing with a real point guard we might be able to go to him when we need a basket. His defense has been fantastic, and though he doesn't rebound at a high rate, his smart defensive rotation and low post defensive technique often allow for others to cherry pick rebounds Baby's already protected by boxing out.

I'd love to see Bill Walker playing, but right now I think Pruitt deserves the minutes more. But on nights where we need a spark or the bench is otherwise terrible (like last night), I wouldn't mind Bill getting some run, if only to light a fire under somebody else's arse. He's an instigator and he should be used for instigation purposes when this team is lacking fire. However, if I were betting on it, I'd say Doc doesn't give him any run until January, just because Bill's a rookie and Doc is Doc.

Tony has been up and down. These last 3 games have been pretty brutal, but overall I think he's playing very fine; he's just in a crisis of confidence right now. He's still getting to the hoop, but he's not finishing. After making like 10 layups in the Detroit game, he's missed about 5 since then that were very makeable. As always, it's in his head. In fact, for those fans who were around in the 2006-2007 season, this November looks alot like that November, where Tony was great one game and then terrible for the next 3. He eventually pulled out of that inconsistency and I expect him to do the same this season. He's a very solid member of the rotation and the only pure backup 2. As another poster pointed out, he's been very solid in his one-on-one matchups, either against J. Johnson or Billups or Prince, and I think we'll see Doc expand his defensive role in the next month as well.

To me, the major problem with the team right now is Rondo's lack of aggression with the ball. This team is at its absolute best when the ball is in his hands and he's creating. We've only seen that in spurts so far. The kid can't be stopped off the dribble and we should be seeing tons more pick and rolls with him and KG or Paul and we've hardly seen any. And a big part of that aggression needs to be Rondo taking the ball to the hoop. Too often he burns his man, gets an open lane to the rim, and then passes up a layup for a kick out to Ray or Paul for a three. He needs to make those teams pay by shooting layups. The kick out for a three is almost like bailing out the other team's defense. Rondo does that way too much right now.

Overall, though, I think the team is doing pretty good despite the terrible 8 games in 12 nights stretch we're just about to finish, assuming we get the Mil. game tonight.