False Security By Celtics

[Jammer]

In looking at NET PER's of the different NBA teams thru 1/19/2009;

it's clear to me that Cleveland and Orlando are the biggest threats to the Celtics,

and that the Celtics have a tougher road than they may realize if

everyone is healthy on the Cleveland and Orlando teams,
which they have not been for a while.

I think that it's imperative that the Celtics add the Big Man and guard that
Wyc Grousbeck recently said that the Celtics were planning on adding.

No other teams compare to the Celtics like the Cavs and Orlando:

Cleveland ***************************** Boston ******************* Orlando
+25.5 LeBron James ******** +09.9 Kevin Garnett ********* +15.0 Dwight Howard
+11.6 Zydrunas Illgauskas * +08.9 Ray Allen *************** +06.9 Jameer Nelson
+03.7 Delonte West ******** +05.7 Paul Pierce ************* +05.5 Rashard Lewis
+02.3 Wally Szczerbiak **** +05.5 Rajon Rondo *********** +03.4 Mickael Pietrus
+01.6 Anderson Varejo **** +02.9 Leon Powe ************** +03.0 Hedo Turkoglu
+01.6 Ben Wallace ********* +02.8 Tony Allen ************** +01.2 Marcin Gortat
-00.2 Mo Williams ********** +00.1 Eddie House *********** +00.1 Anthony Johnson
-01.1 Sasha Pavlovic ******* -00.6 Kendrick Perkins ****** -01.2 Brian Cook
-02.5 JJ Hickson ************ -02.0 Gabe Pruitt ************ -03.3 Courtney Lee
-03.5 Daniel Gibson ********* -06.5 Patrick O'Bryant ******* -05.6 Tony Battie
********************************* -09.5 Glen Davis ************* -06.5 Keith Bogans
********************************* -11.5 Brian Scalabrine ******* -06.5 JJ Redick

The Big Man would obviously take Glen Davis' minutes behind Perk,
and the Guard would replace Pruitt,
and be an additional scorer in case Eddie or Tony are not with it that day.

The alternative would be to suddenly be able to contain

LeBron James and Zydrunas Illgauskas of Cleveland
(although West, Szczerbiak, Varejo, Wallace and Williams can sting)

and Dwight Howard, Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis of Orlando
(although Turkoglu, Pietrus and Gortat can sting).

[Jammer]

In terms of overcoming Cleveland,

what would it take in terms of cash and picks to entice Cleveland to swap

Anderson Varejo for Glen Davis and Brian Scalabrine ???

(Just kidding, All in Jest, Some Things Really Are Impossible)

[elrod enchilada]

you would have to include Rondo or else Fanny Ferry's laughter would overwhelm Danny's offer.

We have no chips to get a player of Varejao's value, even if he were on the market. And our expiring contract situation is non-existent until next season.

Let's hope for a buyout veteran or a retired guy like Mourning. Our best bet.

[Red2]

to me the false security is in getting too excited about beating NJ and Toronto twice and a tired suns team in the middle of a road trip. Orlando and Cleveland are clearly our biggest challenge in the east and I don't think we want any part of a healthy atlanta team in the playoffs. It all comes down to who's healthy and playing well come the playoffs. Right now it looks like we've righted the ship but I reserve judgment until this week is over. If we win 2 out of the next 3 or all three then I'd say we're in a good groove. If we lose tonight and tomorrow night then we're right back where we were- losing to quality and average teams on the road. Not having Perk and Tony gives us a bit of an excuse of course but every team has had injuries

[Bad-Thoma]

Well, winning these last 5 games isn't all that exciting for the reasons mentioned, but the way we won them has me feeling better, the whole 5 games the C's progressively played better, absolutely smoking NJ twice and just toying with Phoenix. The benchmarks are coming up in a tough back-to-back in Florida and an improved Dallas team, but the team's playing with rythym and confidence.

[ParticleMan]

of course we could always use help, but using PER as the basis for that is a bit wacky.

I mean, do you really think Big Z is a better player than anyone on the C's?
Is Paul only 2 PER points better than Delonte?
Is Perk worse than Varejao?

I don't think we are clearly better than CLE or ORL, but we're not clearly worse either. HCA will be important, but I think our experience of having done it last year will be big.

I'm confident even if we don't make any moves, but I'm also pretty sure we will make a move or two.

[sully00]

Jammer what is your reasoning for constantly bringing up net PER's? Even if their was some relevance it would have to be based on mins played and not just a list. How is Gortat's net PER relevant to anything? If you could find or calculate a team net per, not an average

People are putting way too much value on road games against good teams. It is great if you steal one of those games but you are not supposed to beat good teams like the Cavs and Lakers on their home court. I think we have gotten spoiled.

The Lakers are fading defensively but the Cavs and Magic are still great on both ends. The C's and Lakers are a ying and yang in as far as offensive efficiency and defensive efficiency. Those numbers and point differential, (which the Cavs are killing in) will tell how you stand as a contender.

[Fencer reregistered]

Look at the standings and the head-to-heads. The Celtics, Cavs, Magic, and Lakers have all been very comparable year-to-date.

It's currently a close 4-team race for the championship. Several other teams are hoping to inject themselves into the mix.

[humblebum]

False security by Celtics? No. False security by Celtics fans? Maybe.

I agree with Sully these advanced metrics are good and well to look at. They're great for the quasi-fantasy discussion that is RealGM forums but they mean hardly anything when it comes down to who's a contender and who isn't. Even point differential and offensive/defensive efficiency don't tell the whole story, though I believe that get closer to the truth. We'll just have to wait to the playoffs to see what will happen.

The Celtics are right in the mix with the three other best teams in the NBA AND they're looking to add players. They're not getting complacent (KG says HELLO). And they have plenty of room for improvement internally from an individual standpoint (Rondo, Perk, Davis, Powe) and from a team chemistry and execution standpoint.

[MyInsatiableOne]

Gee, we beat Orlando ON THE ROAD...can we have a little security now?

[Jammer]

Jammer what is your reasoning for constantly bringing up net PER's? Even if their was some relevance it would have to be based on mins played and not just a list. How is Gortat's net PER relevant to anything? If you could find or calculate a team net per, not an average ...

Hi sully:

We all try to find ways to compare players.

At one time I used a version of the "Bird Index", that I thought of several years before Larry Bird proclaimed his method, that I finally began posting on the web around 1999.

The version in effect around 2001 became the NBA efficiency computation on the NBA.com
website.

I've since discarded that approach, although it was an excellent predictor of
studs, mediocrity and duds.

I detested Hollinger's PER method, because I felt it ignored defense, despite digesting John Hollinger's book over a 2 year period. It also ignored matchup issues like quickness, size,
and skills that might nullify differences in PER's.

Ever since I started reviewing the team data for all 30 teams NET PER, and other data like adjusted plus/minus and other info available over at 82games.com

I've come to the conclusion that NET PER is, for me, the best predictor, in terms of a means of comparison, of the relative contributions of players. It's hard to come out with a good number, and mediocrity and duds are identified. With a sample size of games now in excess of 40 for this season, I find it very relevant for identifying team strengths and weakness, and how they compare to competitors (for the Celtics Cleveland, Orlando, and the Lakers are paramount).

I see your point about offensive and defensive officiency, but ultimately, sully,
you have to get down to the level of individual players.

You can tell a lot about the Celtics and the Cavs from NET PERs.

Cleveland has a strong front line of Zydrunas Illgauskas, Varejo and Ben Wallace.
They all help more than they hurt, and Illgauskas dominates his man thoroughly.

LeBron James warrants a Scottie Pippen like defender if you can get one.

Cleveland has a bunch of shooters that they seek the hot ones each game,
from among Mo Williams, Wally, Boobie Gibson and Delonte West.

They're a tough not to crack.

Boston's starters's are solid,
they have one shooter off the bench in Eddie House,
a bench post player (Powe) who is useless against Cleveland's Redwood Timber,
and a slasher (Tony Allen) who likely won't be able to
penetrate AND FINISH against playoff level D without someone else
spreading the floor for him like James Posey did.

I think the Celtics can't wait for Marbury to take Pruitt's spot;
and I hope they don't wait for a Joe Smith buyout, where Joe might go anywhere,
but instead, if the Celtics sign Marbury,
offer up Tony Allen, Sam Cassell (if he'll agree) and ((Gabe Pruitt or Davis or Giddens))

for Joe Smith and either

Thunder's 2009 2nd Round Pick if Pruitt is included or
Thunder's rights to San Antonio's 2009 First Round Pick if Giddens is included.

[sully00]

But the NET PER's alone tell you nothing. They are first compiled in a very arbitrary fashion. Secondly nothing comes down to individual players it comes down to how individuals perform in a team concept.

Kendrick Perkins has a -.8 NET PER. But has near league avg 14.7 PER and holds his counterpart to a similiar 15.5 which is significant because he often matches up against the best offensive big men on the opposing team. Perk's ability to turn Dwight Howard's 28 PER into a 15 on any given night is why he has the 4th best +/- on the team.

Compared with Eddie House who has positive NET PER but is just shy of a -11 +/-. They went to quite a bit of effort over at 82 games compiling all kinds of stats and information because that is how you create a profile of a player.

If you want to compare a single measure for simplicity why not use their Roland Rating that compiles all of the player information into a measure. I don't think it tells the story alone but it would tell you more than NET PER alone.

The reason I brought up Offensive and Defensive efficiency and more significantly Differential is that they actually relate to who will the championship. Only a handful of teams have won a title without being in the top 10 of all 3 of those stats and the closer to the top you are the better your chances on a given year.