The Celtics Salary Cap Situation

[sully00]

Ainge's philosophy in FA has been the same since he arrived, though he diverted disastrously with Scal. Especially when he is dealing with the tax he is looking for guys who are close to 50 cents on the dollar. That was James Posey a year ago. That was Mourning and Karl Malone when he took over. Maggette this offeason.

As a I brought up before the cap space that could be created for '10 is about 12 million bucks. Not ironically Ainge has also assembled another block of short term contracts that roughly equal that amount of salary in trade with guys who frankly would not be missed. It would be difficult at best to make a move with it at this deadline just because it would involve too many contracts and players as well as Eddie House who would be missed and can't be dealt without his permission. But that stuff is less of an issue in the offseason and after the Draft Eddie will likely have made his decision on his option and Boston would be free to include its '10 pick in trade (this I am somewhat unsure about).

This offseason will be a buyers market, there will be opportunities to pick up guys in MLE FA who ordinarily would command a double digit salary, you may also be able to pick them up on a one year deal as they will want to get back on the market the next offseason. Few teams are in the position of trying to add someone 4-6 they are looking for 1-3 and will likely wait a year. That is why going beyond two years with Posey was so dangerous is you were tying your hands if the chance to take on someone simply because their contract extended into that FA window.

[celtxman]

Posey's contract was crippling. They went above what they were comfortable paying him to bring him back but paying him 7 mil at 36-37 years old is ridiculous. More over he is not the defensive factor he was last season and while he is shooting the ball well the Hornets are a worse team. This team is as good or better. What exactly would we be better at if we had Posey still?

As for the Cav's they are going to piss away around 20 mil in bucks in lux tax payments and missing out on the dispersal of that money. On top of that 91 mil in salary they are paying out. A result of them giving bad contracts to players like Larry Hughes and Donyell Marshall (exact same situation as Posey) so they had to take on even more expensive bad contracts. In the end they have to prove to the king they can surround him with the pieces necessary but that team isn't making money this season and it is a business and if they could trade salary situations with the Celts I am sure they would.

I would like to see the C's add a piece before the playoffs and I think they will and it will likely not involve money spent.

Back to Elrod's article. A couple of points I don't really understand. If Boston intenion is to get under the salary cap for '10 offseason they aren't signing anyone till then. The simply will have KG, Paul, and Perk under contract. They will either sign Rondo to a contract equal or less than his cap hold or leave him restricted.

They will renounce Ray's rights and everyone else. Baby and Powe will be restricted FA's Boston really only needs one of them no way they lose both to offer sheets the year before the FA bomb hits.

The key to the idea would be that Pierce would again replace his option with an extension that matches the one KG signed. Making him 16.5 mil.

KG 18.8, PP 16.5, Perk 4.4, Rondo's cap hold of about 6 mil and 4 mil for the 8 minimum salalry holds of $475,000. That is 50 mil. They would unload their first round draft pick and that will be that.

That isn't 15-20 mil under but it is 10-12 under and that is enough to get a guy who is more interested in winning a title than they are getting every last dollar.

Well then it goes down to whether you believe Elrod's article or not, because he quite clearly says the Celtics cannot realistically get to be 10-$12 million under the cap. His last line is the Celtics will not be under the cap in 2010, and if you read it you have to agree. Another thing we are not mentioning are the other roster sacrifices that have to be made for this unknown player even was we could go through the gyrations to get this done. These gyrations include not improving the current team and sacrificing two years of the shrinking window of the Big Three. Sully - I promise, I absolutely PROMISE to go away on this subject if you can explain yourself. I will take it as a given that Posey will be worthless by the fourth year even if that isn't totally true and the Celtics will have $7 million of wasted money and will have cap problems. What hasn't been explained is we have a team that is built to win now, remember the age of our stars and championship window. We may have watched a preview last night against the Lakers of what it means to not have Posey against a premium team. This was the exact team w/o Bynum that the Celtics dominated at home last year BTW and it can only get better with Bynum. The clutch 3's, the defense and the intangibles that would likely have made that game a comfortable win are now gone. But as bad as that is, that is not the worst part. The worst part is that no one has been able to tell me how we get that back. To put it bluntly Banner 18 may not rise this season because of Posey or a replacement for him and you keep telling me they CAN'T sign such a contract. Why is this a cap killer when they can't do anything with the cap anyway as Elrod explained? In fact there is a list of things that needs to happen even now to sign somebody in 2010/11.
If the ONLY thing that Posey accomplished was helping this team win one more championship that they would not have won without him, he would have been worth the entire $25 million. How quickly we forget how difficult it is to get to this mountaintop, how fleeting and finite this time is and the longterm sacrifice that has already been made for this window.
There is nobody in the world who would love to see Danny Ainge pull a rabbit out of the hat and secure another championship more than me. I would even be willing to do it at a cost that would have been more than keeping Posey. Yet all I hear is that they CAN'T do it because of the salary cap, which they can't get under anyway to improve the team. If you want to tell me that Posey will not be the difference maker in another championship, I may totally disagree, but at least that's a plausible arguement. You mention that if they signed Posey they could not have remained a contendor, but say nothing that backs that up - no scenario that supports that idea - you're just giving me a general concept that doesn't apply to the Celtics unique situation. I'm not even sure you can support the idea of losing Posey if the Big Three were all 25 years old, but I'm willing to listen to anything from anybody. Please re-read Elrod's article for 2010 and tell me what you see is questionable, but I've re-read it and I think he is accurate.

[sully00]

First off you are just way overrating James Posey. There is almost no statistical difference between this team and last years team at this point. Pick you measure and this should not be much of a surprise because while a good role player James really isn't that good, he is intangibles player not stats player. Sure we could use his toughness and ability to step up in big situations. But how much is it worth? Were the same and the Hornets are worse at this point.

I want to win the title this year but I also would like to extend this championship window for as long as we can. Now this team can't have a 10 year window but it can have a 5 year window. To do that it has to spend its money wisely. What you want to do is pay Posey a guy whose going to give this team the same production that House, Allen, Powe, and Baby do actually less in some cases, 11 and 12 mil over this year and next salary and taxes. That I would go for as the Big 3 can carry the water for allotting that kind of cash to a guy whose production doesn't really match the money. Year 3 maybe you can move him in a deal but not with another year 7 mil to go.

As I said at this point Boston is the same with or without Posey, but they aren't better. The Cavs and Lakers are clearly better than last year. McDyess would have been great a clear upgrade over Posey and what we have on the roster and fits what this team does. Didn't happen, but couldn't have happened if Posey was here. Joe Smith is also better than Posey and could still happen but wouldn't if he was still here.

But bigger than that is this offseason. Wouldn't Rasheed Wallace be nice? Maybe Ben Gordon. Jason Kidd or AI, How about Lamar Odom, Charlie Villaneuva, Ron Artest, Drew Gooden, Chris Wilcox, Andre Miller. This is just a quick list of guys who may have to take the MLE at least for next season because of what the market bears.

More significantly as teams jockey for cap space to get a top 1-3 player they are going to be willing to liquidate talent whose contracts extend into the '10 offseason. Guys like Barbossa, Salmons, Gerald Wallace, Brad Miller, and so on guys who might make a million dollars or two more than they are really worth but are twice the player that a guy like Posey is now never mind in 2 or 3 years. Guys that could be the key to extending this team as a contender for another year or two but instead you have James Posey in decline. Ainge will have Scal, TA, and Giddens as essentially expiring contracts that can aquire roughly 8.5 mil, depending on Eddie that could be as high as 12 mil this offseason.

Somehow I think we can find a guy who can give this team more than 7 points and 4 boards for the money, they might even have some great intangibles.

[Luxurytaxlotterybust]

I think a few things will happen this offseason.

First, free agents will be more available. The economy will really slow teams signing a lot of MLE or higher guys. Making the minimum on a contender will be a lot better than minimum in Memphis.

Just look at baseball's free agency this year and they have No salary cap.

Second, Leon Powe will command most of our MLE if we want him to stay. Not saying Danny does but it will be a key part of next years off season.

Third, House could opt-out. I doubt he will (see #1) but he could.

Fourth, Ray Allen's contract will be VERY useful to teams trying to get under the cap or cut payroll going forward. We could see a major deal bringing back multiple pieces for his $18 million + deal.

That is why I think 2010 is a more likely championship season than the current one.

[sully00]

Understand that there is nothing inaccurate with what Elrod is saying, I just disagree with some of his assumptions. I explained that in a previous post.

One other thing with Ray Allen. They can renounce Ray at 20 mil and resign him with the cap space or at the minimum and then give him a new contract the following season using his bird rights. Even if renounced a players bird rights return the following season if he re-signs. In theory Pierce could opt out as well and both could take significantly smaller salary for the '10 season and then resign at whatever amount the next season after they added whatever FAs.

With an eye towards '10 offseason two things need to be understood beyond it is the year LeBron, Bosh and Wade are FAs. There are very few players who even have contracts for that year. While teams are clearing cap space the market is going to be loaded because two forces have come together superstar FAs and an expiring CBA. This is an easy to use salary site.

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/r ... laries.htm

Ordinarily going with the idea of filling a roster with 8 guys on the minimum would be pretty weak. But that offseason may well resemble this offseason in baseball with the top guys getting their money and everyone else just scrambling for jobs.

I don't think the cap space is nearly as important as maintaining salary flexibiilty. Short deals and short money. You want to be the Spurs not the Heat.

[sully00]

Second, Leon Powe will command most of our MLE if we want him to stay. Not saying Danny does but it will be a key part of next years off season.

This not true. Leon is full bird we can sign to anything up to the max and it does not affect the MLE.

Third, House could opt-out. I doubt he will (see #1) but he could.

House as well as Big Baby will be early bird FA. Boston can sign them to a contract equal to the MLE, in Baby's case no one can actually offer him more than that. Both could be resigned without using the actual MLE.

[celtxman]

First off you are just way overrating James Posey. There is almost no statistical difference between this team and last years team at this point. Pick you measure and this should not be much of a surprise because while a good role player James really isn't that good, he is intangibles player not stats player. Sure we could use his toughness and ability to step up in big situations. But how much is it worth? Were the same and the Hornets are worse at this point.

I want to win the title this year but I also would like to extend this championship window for as long as we can. Now this team can't have a 10 year window but it can have a 5 year window. To do that it has to spend its money wisely. What you want to do is pay Posey a guy whose going to give this team the same production that House, Allen, Powe, and Baby do actually less in some cases, 11 and 12 mil over this year and next salary and taxes. That I would go for as the Big 3 can carry the water for allotting that kind of cash to a guy whose production doesn't really match the money. Year 3 maybe you can move him in a deal but not with another year 7 mil to go.

As I said at this point Boston is the same with or without Posey, but they aren't better. The Cavs and Lakers are clearly better than last year. McDyess would have been great a clear upgrade over Posey and what we have on the roster and fits what this team does. Didn't happen, but couldn't have happened if Posey was here. Joe Smith is also better than Posey and could still happen but wouldn't if he was still here.

But bigger than that is this offseason. Wouldn't Rasheed Wallace be nice? Maybe Ben Gordon. Jason Kidd or AI, How about Lamar Odom, Charlie Villaneuva, Ron Artest, Drew Gooden, Chris Wilcox, Andre Miller. This is just a quick list of guys who may have to take the MLE at least for next season because of what the market bears.

More significantly as teams jockey for cap space to get a top 1-3 player they are going to be willing to liquidate talent whose contracts extend into the '10 offseason. Guys like Barbossa, Salmons, Gerald Wallace, Brad Miller, and so on guys who might make a million dollars or two more than they are really worth but are twice the player that a guy like Posey is now never mind in 2 or 3 years. Guys that could be the key to extending this team as a contender for another year or two but instead you have James Posey in decline. Ainge will have Scal, TA, and Giddens as essentially expiring contracts that can aquire roughly 8.5 mil, depending on Eddie that could be as high as 12 mil this offseason.

Somehow I think we can find a guy who can give this team more than 7 points and 4 boards for the money, they might even have some great intangibles.

I was the first one in the pool with the 7 point 4 rebound argument and having some confidence that they had a plan for the MLE that would get that player in the off-season. I guess it all comes down to what happens before March 1st. As you say the Cavs and Lakers are better. I don't translate what Posey was done in NO to what he would have done here and I believe he would have helped the team win games like the game the Celtics lost last night. So while it's a bit early an apparant mistake for NO is not the same scenario for Boston. McDyess would indeed have been a perfect fit and in his heart he has to regret not going to Boston or Cleveland. But McDyess is a PF, and Posey is primarily a SF. You could have both, same as next year with Wallace or Joe Smith. in terms of strategy for a championship team it makes far more sense to do deals with expiring contracts than stripping your roster (if it even can be done) to try to get that one player. you think the Cavs are in a worse situation than the Celtics salarywise and I disagree. The Cavs are sitting pretty with the bargaining chips of Eric Snow and Sczcerbiak, with the only thing holding them back their desire to keep the current chemistry. Let's say they found out that Delonte West was out for the season, they have assets to acquire a PG, while the Celtics have to get lucky. Next year it is even worse - they have $14 million in expiring in Ben Wallace and $4.5 in Pavlovic. While the rest of the world is fighting to get Lebron, they could well be securing LeBron with the stud they land with expiring contracts well before 2010 arrives. Can anyone forget we secured Garnett with Ratleff's expiring contract? The Cavs learned the hard way about the under the cap way to success myth when Michael Redd spurned the Cavs when they were under the cap. In desperation of the "use it or lose it" cap situation when they signed Larry Hughes. While Larry Hughes turned out to be a terrible bust, his terrible salary turned out helping the Cavs today. People are only paying attention to the Knicks model of being a mediocre-bad team and trying to build a championship through expiring contracts, hence the fan's perception that getting under the cap is a great thing. The owners are delighted with this perception because they can save on luxury tax and be perceived as good guys. But if you have a championship level team and you want to keep it there, it is not a bad thing to have some bad contracts sprinkled on the roster like Cleveland has. It's kind of like printing your own money, only it doesn't lose any value and it's like "OK - what can we go out and buy to improve our roster with the multitude of teams that are now into saving money."
So in bringing this back to Posey the Celtics are absolutely straining trying to find a way to replace a 7 point player. They couldn't get it done in the off-season and we hope there is a door that opens before March 1st. I have a better understanding of where you are coming from - basically that you believe Posey is overrated. I happen to agree that he was never worth a 4 year MLE contract but there has been no alternative that puts the Celtics closer to a championship and therefore their best option may have been to bite the bullet and sign him and that's where I am coming from. We all held our breath in Game 1 when Pierce was carried off of the floor in Game 1. We all know age and injuries become a factor with each passing year and compromising 2008/9 and 2009/10 does not guarantee a shot at anything in the summer of 2010.

[sully00]

celtxman

Like I said not signing Posey is not just about '10 offseason, it is about what is successful in pro sports and life in general put a price on it and then hold to that price.

I don't think we are a significantly better team with James Posey on the court. We are a different team but how were we better? This team has won without Garnett, won blow outs and won close games. Sure we beat the Lakers but that was before they got Gasol. What is different without James Posey? Nothing you can point to. I don't think we miss him that much.

I am not advocating clearing cap space for '10 I have made that pretty clear. But I want this team to maintain its flexibility and not make cap killing commitments to role players. This is not a do or die season, Boston is committed to this course for 4 more years.

As for CLE they aren't likely to get anything for Wally. First of all he is more valuable to them than anyone else. They also don't have much value to attach to him. Who do you see them getting that makes them better? Who is going to look to help them?