Wyc speaks on opening the wallet....

[Avalanche]

He could definitely cover some minutes at the 3, but i dont think hes realistic

Birdman would be great but i dont see any chance of him leaving denver

Sheed willing to take the MLE is the best case, otherwise im not sure who we throw it at first

[gocelts]

Even though Danny has the green light to utilize the MLE, I find it VERY UNLIKELY that he will blow his wad on Ariza. The player they sign according to the way the article reads will have to be a steal even at the full MLE, and Ariza at the full MLE is not realy a steal. He may command that money today, but please note that that this is a guy who didnt crack the rotation last year and was basically their Scal. Not to say we dont need him today, just not at that price. As far as some other players, I just dont see Artest or Wallace coming here at a cut rate.

With that said, my guess is they have their eye on McDyess or Anderson and they wont be offered the full MLE. Both are bangers, and can play center better than Baby.

[ryaningf]

Then I'd use the Early Bird Rights to lock up Baby for 1 more year (when he'll have his full Bird rights).

No offense but you are crazy if you think Glen Davis is going to sign a one year deal.

His market value is probably the highest it will be in his career right now and he is going to try to cash in this off-season. Glen Davis will be signing a 3-5 year deal with someone this off-season. The questions are Who? How much?

Well, I didn't say I thought Glen would want a one-year deal...I just said I'd try to sign him to one. Big diff there.

The problem with resigning Glen Davis is this: we only have two ways to sign him. Either we use a portion of the MLE (which might be problematic because we'll probably want to use part or all of the MLE to sign other free agents) or we use his Early Bird Rights, which would only allow us to sign him to what amounts to the full MLE (though you don't actually use the MLE--just the amount of whatever the MLE is set to). In reality, Glen is worth about 3-4 million per. But, if we end up using the MLE on other players, we'll only be able to match contract offers for Baby with Early Bird Rights, which will end up costing us the same amount as the full MLE, which is WAY too much for Baby at this point in his career. But, on a one-year deal, it's manageable.

Basically, what I'm saying is that due to the way the salary cap is set up, we're probably going to either a.) sign Baby to a portion of the MLE, thus limiting our ability to use the MLE to sign other free agents; b.) sign Baby using his Early Bird Rights, which amounts to the full MLE (though doesn't count against it); or c.) let Baby go.

The only way to sign Baby to a reasonable deal is to blow a portion of the MLE on him, thus limiting our ability to sign another free agent. It's going to be interesting to see what we do...

[floyd]

You're saying if u use the early bird rights it has to be for the maximum of the exception? That doesn't sound right.

We'd need to use the MLE to sign him to a one year deal - early bird is a min 2 years.

[ryaningf]

If I had to guess the targeted players Wyc refers to, I'd guess: McDyess and Grant Hill. Not exactly a big splash, but solid role players.

But, if I were Danny, the player I'd target would be Trevor Ariza. He can guard 2.5 positions (the .5 position being perimeter fours, like Rashard Lewis), hit the 3 ball, dribble penetrate and dish, and he's clutch. I'd offer him 5 years of the full MLE and let him be the primary backup at 2/3 and sometimes 4 depending on the matchup. Then I'd use the Early Bird Rights to lock up Baby for 1 more year (when he'll have his full Bird rights).

1. Ariza has said he wants to stay in LA (he's a UCLA grad).

2. Lakers would be idiots to not offer him full MLE for 5 years, since a dozen teams will.
Someone will probably offer Ariza $7 million per.

We'll see. Even if you don't think you can get Ariza (and I've heard he hates the Celtics), offering him the full MLE still forces the Lakers to match, which in turn might force them to let Lamar Odom go (and Lamar would be a nice pickup for the Cs). Offering him the full MLE is a win/win for the Cs, even if he resigns with the Lakers. As for these 10 teams you that MIGHT offer Ariza the full MLE, I'll believe it when I see it. In a bad economy with little cap room available and other, more marketable/established stars on the market, I don't think it's a given that ANYONE offers Ariza the full MLE.

3. Even if the Celtics were lucky enough to get Ariza over Grant Hill, they still need to do a sign & trade for a center.

McDyess probably has a deal in place to be overpaid in Detroit,
since he left $8 million on the table in Denver.

I severely doubt this is the case. Besides being against league rules, why would a team committed to rebuilding purposefully lock themselves into a big money deal with a 35 year old backup center? Detroit would be insane to bring back McDyess at this point. They're looking for young players and cap space. McDyess is available--the question is for how much.

Joe Smith, likewise, probably has a full MLE guarantee from Cleveland, otherwise he would have signed with the Celtics (who I'm certain did not give a full mid-level guarantee for the summer)

Orlando won't let Gortat go. They'd be crazy to let a great backup center go. They can match any offer.

Joe Smith did NOTHING in the playoffs. Cleveland needs to get younger and I doubt they waste the full MLE on Joe Smith, even if they had an agreement in place. I don't rule out Joe Smith returning to Cleveland, but it'll be for small money. Cleveland is under intense pressure to get better next season, and that doesn't mean bringing Joe Smith back.

Orlando will be an interesting case. They are going to have a hell of a time resigning Turkoglu. And how much money can they afford on a back up center when they just blew their MLE wad on Michel Pietras last season? I sure they'd like Gortat back, but at a reasonable price. Gortat probably can be had, if one's willing to overpay for him. I doubt the Cs will, but I think he can be had.

Sheed wants $8 million per. Rumor is Mark Cuban or Popovich will give it to him. Would Wyc go $7 million per. He can play the 4/5, and is 6' 9.75" barefoot. $7 million would require a sign & Trade.
Maybe the Celtics offer two years at $7 million (S&T with Scal, Tony Allen) or
3 years at full MLE.

Birdman is ??

Rasho has his pick. He's guaranteed $4 million, because there just aren't any centers. How much higher than that he gets probably is a function of how much playing time the team doing the bidding plans to use him. Does he follow the money, or go to a winner? I still say Rasho is the center the Celtics have the best shot at, along with Birdman.

The thing about Charlie Villanueva, who's 6' 9" barefoot, and can make an outside shot, is that he's a power forward, not a center. What I mean is, he's somewhat mobile, and can shoot, BUT he's not a banger. So, when you take Kendrick Perkins off the floor, the only guy the Celtics have that can BANG is Little Baby, all 6' 7.75" of him. Which ain't what you're looking for in a backup C, which according to Doc Rivers, is the number one team need (followed by full sized SF, again, according to Doc Rivers, not me, but I happen to think Doc has it right).

You're right, we need a backup center. I just hope we don't overpay for one. Rasho is crap; Birdman's staying in Denver (which is where he wanted to be all along--which is why the Cs had no realistic chance at him unless they gave him more than the minimum). Wallace is probably a long shot, though he'd fit in very well on this team and is probably worth the MLE for 2 seasons (which isn't enough to get him here, probably). I don't think a sign-and-trade is realistic at ALL--to me, the Cs will just let TA/Scal/House/and possibly Giddens just walk next summer and simply divert that cap space to new contracts/extensions for Rondo/Ray/Baby. If we end up using the MLE and sign Baby with his Early Bird Rights, we can recoup some of the extra expenditure in 2010 by simply letting our free agents walk. I have a feeling that's how it's going to play out.

But, back to a backup center. To me, you can bargain shop for a backup center. Hell, we could have had the Birdman for very cheap last summer. I'm sure we could find another decent backup bigman out there for very cheap...maybe someone like Jamal Magliure. Or we can play the waiver wire/veteran free agent buyout waiting game again and hope we get lucky like we did with PJ.

That said, I expect us to make an offer on McDyess. I expect Bill Walker to have a great summer league--good enough that we'll hold off on Grant Hill. Then I expect Marbury to resign with us come August when he and the Cs can't find anything better.

[ryaningf]

You're saying if u use the early bird rights it has to be for the maximum of the exception? That doesn't sound right.

We'd need to use the MLE to sign him to a one year deal - early bird is a min 2 years.

Yep, I was wrong--deals signed with the Early Bird Rights must be for at least 2 years. Maybe we could sign him to a two-year deal, with an option for the 2nd year. But I was right about the other part--Early Bird deals must be for "either 175% of his salary the previous season, or the NBA's average salary, whichever is greater." (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Salary_Cap)

[I love heinsohn]

I wish there were some way for Wyc to add more limited partners to the team right now. This type of economy is exactly where an owner willing to spend a bit could make a killing in bringing back talent. Check out Hollinger's article today on Denver. They are looking to dump the 34th pick and a future 1st owed to them by Charlotte. Might be a small move, but you could ship Giddens/Scal/Pruitt/cash to Denver for Balkman/Hunter and one of those picks. Denver waives Pruitt (non-guaranteed deal) and buys out Scal to save about $2 million under the cap and $5 million overall. Celtics re-sign Scal and slide Balkman in as the energy backup SF/defender, while also ending up with a useful pick in DA's hands. Oh well. Just some wishful thinking on my part...

[floyd]

(i) If the player is an Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent, the new Player Contract must cover at least two (2) Seasons (not including a Season covered by an Option Year) and, subject to Article II, Section 7, may provide in the first Salary Cap Year up to the greater of: (A) 175% of the Regular Salary for the final Salary Cap Year covered by his prior Contract, plus 175% of any Likely Bonuses and Unlikely Bonuses, respectively, called for in the final Salary Cap Year covered by the player’s prior Contract, or (B) Salary plus Unlikely Bonuses totaling 108% of the Average Player Salary for the prior Salary Cap Year (or if the Audit Report for the prior Salary Cap Year has not been completed, 108% of the Average Player Salary for the prior Salary Cap Year as computed by substituting Estimated Total Salaries (as defined in Article VII, Section 1(i)) for Total Salaries). Notwithstanding the preceding sentence, if the player is an Early Qualifying Veteran Free Agent whose last Contract was his Rookie Scale Contract and whose Prior Team did not exercise its Option to extend such Contract for a third Season, the new Player Contract may provide for Regular Salary, Likely Bonuses and Unlikely Bonuses in the first Salary Cap Year of up to the Regular Salary, Likely Bonuses and Unlikely Bonuses, respectively, that the player would have received for such Salary Cap Year had his Prior Team exercised such Option. Annual increases and decreases in Salary and Unlikely Bonuses shall be governed by Section 5(c)(2) above.

http://www.nbpa.com/cba_articles/article-VII_6.php

This legal crap makes me crossed eyed but i think it means up to that value. The other descriptions did sound like it had to be the full amount.

[gocelts]

If I had to guess the targeted players Wyc refers to, I'd guess: McDyess and Grant Hill. Not exactly a big splash, but solid role players.

But, if I were Danny, the player I'd target would be Trevor Ariza. He can guard 2.5 positions (the .5 position being perimeter fours, like Rashard Lewis), hit the 3 ball, dribble penetrate and dish, and he's clutch. I'd offer him 5 years of the full MLE and let him be the primary backup at 2/3 and sometimes 4 depending on the matchup. Then I'd use the Early Bird Rights to lock up Baby for 1 more year (when he'll have his full Bird rights).

1. Ariza has said he wants to stay in LA (he's a UCLA grad).

2. Lakers would be idiots to not offer him full MLE for 5 years, since a dozen teams will.
Someone will probably offer Ariza $7 million per.

We'll see. Even if you don't think you can get Ariza (and I've heard he hates the Celtics), offering him the full MLE still forces the Lakers to match, which in turn might force them to let Lamar Odom go (and Lamar would be a nice pickup for the Cs). Offering him the full MLE is a win/win for the Cs, even if he resigns with the Lakers. As for these 10 teams you that MIGHT offer Ariza the full MLE, I'll believe it when I see it. In a bad economy with little cap room available and other, more marketable/established stars on the market, I don't think it's a given that ANYONE offers Ariza the full MLE.

3. Even if the Celtics were lucky enough to get Ariza over Grant Hill, they still need to do a sign & trade for a center.

McDyess probably has a deal in place to be overpaid in Detroit,
since he left $8 million on the table in Denver.

I severely doubt this is the case. Besides being against league rules, why would a team committed to rebuilding purposefully lock themselves into a big money deal with a 35 year old backup center? Detroit would be insane to bring back McDyess at this point. They're looking for young players and cap space. McDyess is available--the question is for how much.

Joe Smith, likewise, probably has a full MLE guarantee from Cleveland, otherwise he would have signed with the Celtics (who I'm certain did not give a full mid-level guarantee for the summer)

Orlando won't let Gortat go. They'd be crazy to let a great backup center go. They can match any offer.

Joe Smith did NOTHING in the playoffs. Cleveland needs to get younger and I doubt they waste the full MLE on Joe Smith, even if they had an agreement in place. I don't rule out Joe Smith returning to Cleveland, but it'll be for small money. Cleveland is under intense pressure to get better next season, and that doesn't mean bringing Joe Smith back.

Orlando will be an interesting case. They are going to have a hell of a time resigning Turkoglu. And how much money can they afford on a back up center when they just blew their MLE wad on Michel Pietras last season? I sure they'd like Gortat back, but at a reasonable price. Gortat probably can be had, if one's willing to overpay for him. I doubt the Cs will, but I think he can be had.

Sheed wants $8 million per. Rumor is Mark Cuban or Popovich will give it to him. Would Wyc go $7 million per. He can play the 4/5, and is 6' 9.75" barefoot. $7 million would require a sign & Trade.
Maybe the Celtics offer two years at $7 million (S&T with Scal, Tony Allen) or
3 years at full MLE.

Birdman is ??

Rasho has his pick. He's guaranteed $4 million, because there just aren't any centers. How much higher than that he gets probably is a function of how much playing time the team doing the bidding plans to use him. Does he follow the money, or go to a winner? I still say Rasho is the center the Celtics have the best shot at, along with Birdman.

The thing about Charlie Villanueva, who's 6' 9" barefoot, and can make an outside shot, is that he's a power forward, not a center. What I mean is, he's somewhat mobile, and can shoot, BUT he's not a banger. So, when you take Kendrick Perkins off the floor, the only guy the Celtics have that can BANG is Little Baby, all 6' 7.75" of him. Which ain't what you're looking for in a backup C, which according to Doc Rivers, is the number one team need (followed by full sized SF, again, according to Doc Rivers, not me, but I happen to think Doc has it right).

You're right, we need a backup center. I just hope we don't overpay for one. Rasho is crap; Birdman's staying in Denver (which is where he wanted to be all along--which is why the Cs had no realistic chance at him unless they gave him more than the minimum). Wallace is probably a long shot, though he'd fit in very well on this team and is probably worth the MLE for 2 seasons (which isn't enough to get him here, probably). I don't think a sign-and-trade is realistic at ALL--to me, the Cs will just let TA/Scal/House/and possibly Giddens just walk next summer and simply divert that cap space to new contracts/extensions for Rondo/Ray/Baby. If we end up using the MLE and sign Baby with his Early Bird Rights, we can recoup some of the extra expenditure in 2010 by simply letting our free agents walk. I have a feeling that's how it's going to play out.

But, back to a backup center. To me, you can bargain shop for a backup center. Hell, we could have had the Birdman for very cheap last summer. I'm sure we could find another decent backup bigman out there for very cheap...maybe someone like Jamal Magliure. Or we can play the waiver wire/veteran free agent buyout waiting game again and hope we get lucky like we did with PJ.

That said, I expect us to make an offer on McDyess. I expect Bill Walker to have a great summer league--good enough that we'll hold off on Grant Hill. Then I expect Marbury to resign with us come August when he and the Cs can't find anything better.

Good points...after hearing the repeated comments about Birdman wanting to only play in Denver has me now thinking only McDyess too. ...I am also not expecting a trade with Scal and TA this offseason to address any needs, but MAYBE before the last trade deadline when Powe can start his comeback and either Walker or Giddons are ready to contribute...

Im also not too sure that HIll is our guy at SF as I think Doc is reffering to a Kobe and Lebron stopper at the position and not a "stud". This may be addressed with a vet minimum/LLE guy or a pick this year (via trade).

[sully00]

Then I'd use the Early Bird Rights to lock up Baby for 1 more year (when he'll have his full Bird rights).

No offense but you are crazy if you think Glen Davis is going to sign a one year deal.

His market value is probably the highest it will be in his career right now and he is going to try to cash in this off-season. Glen Davis will be signing a 3-5 year deal with someone this off-season. The questions are Who? How much?

But it may not be up to Baby, he is restricted he needs a team to sign him to an offer sheet that the C's can either match or not. It isn't impossible but teams will likely look at unrestricted options first and that will shrink the market which is going to be limited to begin with. I also think that teams will be reluctant to touch the MLE as there may be a lot of talent had for the MLE for one season, because of all of the pending factors. That said it will only take one team and if you can figure out how Ronny Turiaf gets a deal and Ryan Gomes and Carl Landry don't your smarter than me.

I think what Boston does on other FA fronts will impact whether teams think Boston will match and either increase or decrease the chances of him getting a sheet. I think there is a better than 25% chance Glen Davis plays for the Qualifying Offer and that will only be for about 1 mil.

Baby is limited to a a salary of 5.6 mil for the first year. Boston can give him anything from his Qualifying Offer to that and can give it to him for up to 6 years with up to 10.5% raises and it does not affect Boston's mid level exception at all. If a team signs Baby to an offer sheet and Boston decides to match it will still use the Early Bird exception to do so.

The thing with the high profile FA's is they are not going to be able to build many sign and trade deals because the teams that acquired most of them aren't going to want any salary coming back for them. The one player I could see Boston just open up the vault for on the first day of FA is Marion. He is probably still worth a more the MLE but his game has fallen off he likely will have to either stay in TOR or go to a team with little chance to win to get it. I could see him as a candidate for a one year MLE deal or to take the full 5 year deal with some player options. Maybe Boston could work out a S&T with some expiring deals to get him some more money. On an full MLE he will be making 7 mil at 35 years old.

[cisco]

Wyc better be opening his wallet after he opened his big mouth and said that KG guaranteed, not one more, but two more championships.