A Statistical Perspective on Rajon Rondo

[CeltsfaninDC]

CP3 is a better player than Rondo.

Well I'm glad we settled that one.

[GuyClinch]

Now why can't Paul and Ray hack it with Rondo off the court and the non point guard Eddie House in?

Only you say they can't. With GP and Davis the C's had the 8th best offense in the league. That's better then the ninth best under Rondo (in the championship year).

[GreenDreamer]

Now why can't Paul and Ray hack it with Rondo off the court and the non point guard Eddie House in?

Only you say they can't. With GP and Davis the C's had the 8th best offense in the league. That's better then the ninth best under Rondo (in the championship year).

With GP? You do realize that Gary Payton is a HOF point guard, right? He isn't Steve Kerr.

By the way, 8th is pretty good, and they had a lot of offense on that team, overall... in a weak East, in a weak division overall. First round exit.

Edit: Forgot a few things too. GP used to regularly blow Doc off and run whatever he wanted to, which is a major reason behind Danny's decision to "go in a different direction". Why was Payton here to begin with? Hated playing in Phil Jackson's system. Go figure.

[humblebum]

Well, I just listened to Doc on Comcast Sportsnet and he said he'd be "very surprised" if the Celtics didn't come back with the same starting five next season. Looks like Ainge and Doc were probably just trying to send a message to Rondo.

[GreenDreamer]

Well, I just listened to Doc on Comcast Sportsnet and he said he'd be "very surprised" if the Celtics didn't come back with the same starting five next season. Looks like Ainge and Doc were probably just trying to send a message to Rondo.

I just hope that he didn't say "I really do" in his comments. Doc saying that is the equivalent of Bill Clinton biting his lip. They do that, and you know that what they are saying is a load of crap.

[GreenDreamer]

I didn't address a couple of Humblebum's very good points in my other response. Rondo certainly needs to improve his free throw shooting. He needs to find something which works for him and rigidly stick to it. He's too much like Dwight Evans was when he was younger - always fiddling around with his stance. What makes a really good free throw shooter is consistency of form and routine. Do the same exact thing in the first quarter that you do in OT. Rondo absolutely needs to iron that out.

With regards to needing the ball, I think that a big thing is that Paul needs to learn to play off of the ball now. Not just because Rondo needs it more, but because Paul is not as quick and explosive as he once was. He can't be the human battering ram he was just a few years ago when he would average double digit FTA a game. He needs to score easier baskets, and Rondo is the kind of guy who can get those for him. The number of open jumpers which Ray would have shot, but which Paul turned down this season off of Rondo passes was extreme this season. He needs to take these, and do a better job of keeping himself open. Things like opportunistic cuts and moving himself on the perimeter. The guy is a good shooter and finisher, and he would quickly find out that it is a hell of a lot easier to go that path than to drag two guys to the rim 20 times a game.

That is where Ray already has a head start on Paul, but especially KG. Garnett, believe it or not, shot 80 points higher, this season, with Rondo than without him. Why? He fed off of Rondo's kickouts for midrange shots, alleys fordunks, and got out in transition. He helped Rondo help him, and it made life easier for him.


I'm plenty critcial of Rondo. Don't think that I am not. I just am in Rondo defense mode now, and don't feel that adding my own observations would be productive. One is that Rondo does not shoot his floaetr right. He should go off of two feet when he shoots them, and look to get extension on his arm, but he one foots them and short arms the shot. I would ahve him watch a lot of tape on Tony Parker, who is the best guy at it around, and have him copy that style. Two feet gives better stability to the shot, and the full extnsion better control. The opposition shouldn't be able to know when that floater is coming. The method I'm describing is one which a player gets off in a flash. With Rondo's vert and long arms, it would be almost unstoppable. He does it his way, and so he unnecessarily struggles with it.

[GuyClinch]

With GP? You do realize that Gary Payton is a HOF point guard, right? He isn't Steve Kerr.

I love GP but he sure the heck wasn't playing like a HOF by the time he got to us come.

By the way, 8th is pretty good, and they had a lot of offense on that team, overall... in a weak East, in a weak division overall. First round exit.

They lost because of their defense. No one every claimed they played good D. We are talking about O here and it was excellent. Funny how whatever team Doc coaches "has alot of offense" LMAO.

Maybe Doc knows how to run an offense. And no Rondo isn't "underutilized" Doc would use him to set people up if the defense paid attention to him. <g>

[threrf23]

Let me get this straight you did your own analysis which is based on the attention that you would expect a guy to have. How exactly did you assign this? I ask that, because I'm figuring that you added a SUBJECTIVE value into your stat. After all, stats can be played out to get what you want out of them if you CREATE them to get a DESIRED result. I'm not inventing my own stats here.

In short, I took scoring stats, manipulated them based on statistical context, to judge scoring ability. When manipulating TO stats, I used an assumption that the more scoring ability a player possessed, the more defensive attention he would have likely received. Everything is objective, once you get past the point that any formula/stat (take PER for example) is somewhat subjective.

[GreenDreamer]

Let me get this straight you did your own analysis which is based on the attention that you would expect a guy to have. How exactly did you assign this? I ask that, because I'm figuring that you added a SUBJECTIVE value into your stat. After all, stats can be played out to get what you want out of them if you CREATE them to get a DESIRED result. I'm not inventing my own stats here.

In short, I took scoring stats, manipulated them based on statistical context, to judge scoring ability. When manipulating TO stats, I used an assumption that the more scoring ability a player possessed, the more defensive attention he would have likely received. Everything is objective, once you get past the point that any formula/stat (take PER for example) is somewhat subjective.

That is why I tend to be suspicious of such stats. I like the ones which try to stay away from interpretation as much as possible. Take Rondo's oncourt/offcourt impact, which was +19.9. it was no one's "opnion" that is was so. It just was. I don't discount things like PER, but I do like to use the big picture and figure stuff like statistical efficiency into the mix, and what is actually happening on the floor when a guy is out there.

People talk about "intangibles". Well, I think that what happens on the scoreboard is a good measure of those intangibles. What is a guy bringing to the table? How much does he help his team when out there, how much does it hurt when he isn't out there? When Rondo wasn't out there, it was as if the Celtics had their heart torn out this postseason. That is how he ended up with a +19.9 oncourt offcourt per 48. Evene more so, his +23.3 offensive/defenisve rating swing. Not only did the offense fall apart, the defense did as well. The rebounding was ridiculously worse. Everything went bad. Just check out his page on 82games.com. It is truly stunning.

Does that mean that he played well in all the games? No. But it was rondo who kept us in it, and that was with him practically fighting a two way battle between his opponents and his own coach.