GuyClinch wrote:+/- is not an entirely useful stat. Adjusted +/- should be though. Just like has been explained to you by sully as to why it is not.
You are wasting your time. He doesn't understand or doesn't care to admit its limitations. Its already been explained quite well that Rondo plays with the big 3 - but never without them. That House is used when the team is losing and so on.. All these play into inflating his +/-. This is of course why they invented ADJUSTED +/-. It's why they show the lineups and not just the overall number at 82games. The statistical community understands its limitations but GreenDreamer does not and tries to deflect it saying that WE don't understand it. LMAO.
I'm not a fan of adjusted plus/minus as it is a nice IDEA but has a critical FLAW - it attempts to predict what a player's actual base plus/minus would be. That you would plug said player into another lineup and his performance would either help or hinder his teamby that amount. That honestly cannot be done becuase
1. The stats do not describe the USAGE of a player - eg. Is a guy primarily used as a help defender? Does he pick up the other teams best player? Is the offense reliant on his playmaking? Is the offense perimeter or post oriented? Things like that.
2. Assumes that a player is carried by or carries other players which is why his plus/minus is the way it is. The other players are assigned values according to their production and the ratings of certain lineups. They try to break it down imn an intelligent fashion, and rate according to the game situation, but it is still problematical. What is missed is how much or how little the other players actually rely on the player himself to get what they want.
3. Plus/minus is a NON-INTERPRETIVE stat. Paul or Ray or KG or Rondo's plus/minuses aren't what they are because somebody assigned any value whatsoever. They are simply a record of what actually happneded, scoreboardwise, when a player was in the game. Attempting to say what another player would do playing in that system, being used that way, playing those minutes, with those teammates is VERY problematical.
4. Every team is going to have guys with "good" adjusted plus/minus ratings and ones with "bad" adjusted plus minus ratings. Why? We every team has its guys who they do better with than other guys, and their guys who hold them back. That is how a guy liek Randy Foye actually looks good in this rating system. How the hell can you then use those numbers to compare them to players from other teams?
In addition there are other serious issues which seemingly escape these guys. They weight the playoffs as being worth two times what the regular season is ( they used to have it at TEN times, but I guess they realized how stupid that is). Take Chris Paul, for example, he had a pretty miserable playoffs this year, but that lasted 5 games. That is ten regular season games in this system. So one really good playoff run will make a guys numbers lookgreat, even if he wasn't so good before. Conversely they will hammer a good playersnumbers, like Chris Paul (mind you I am fully aware how this HELPED Rondo this season, and Paul didn't end up getting hammeerd anyways(). The question? What about the guys on teams which didn't even make it? They are fine. Five bad postseason games could take down a player who was superb over 82 regular season games. It just isn't well thought out. Mind you, I've been fully aware of these stats since they first came out. Here's the present roll for teh C's.
http://basketballvalue.com/teamplayers.php?year=2009 playoffs&team=BOS
Paul Pierce gets slammed in these ratings an Kendrick Perkins 1 year adjusted plus/minus is negative NINE POINT FIVE!!! You have to be kidding me. The guy IS one of the team's most valuable players, yet this system rapes him just as it did Rondo last season. Which is even more odd considering that Rondo finished 16th in the league ov erall adjusted ratings after his rookie season, and suddenly turned into a tub of goo in our Title season (according to this system), finishing in the cellar. Now he isgood again. Please. Why? Well Rondo is now considered a guy who carries others instead of being carried himself. He doesn't carry them this much, nor was he ever carried that much.
This whole thing is full of holes. Hell, according to them Perk deserved a -11.5 adjusted plus/minus for the regular season. Give me a friggin break.