How the Celtics can get a major free agent next offseason

[canman1971]

I'm just telling you what Danny said: They're looking at a sign and trade. The reason it could work is because it gives the free agent 30 million more than being under the cap.

This is from Ainge.

The other stuff is just me filling in the gaps. But the possibility is real.

As far as the example: Riley can call Wade's "bluff." But it's not a bluff. Wade in this scenario either signs with Boston, or leaves Miami for another team that has cleared cap space. Riley then either chooses to get something, or get nothing. But if Wade decides to leave he's gone either way.

You can change the name to LeBron or Bosh or someone else and the same circumstances apply. The key to it is a max free agent who is 100% set on leaving his current team.

Right, but the biggest point remains, that nothing is better than taking back salaries to match the S&T that equal nothing on the floor. How the hell can you match a match salary with what the Cs have? Miami isn't taking back Ray Allen on a max deal and the Cs spare parts are not good.

[BlamePitino]

Frankly, I think Rondo is part of any of those sign-and-trades for a superstar, so using him as a selling point for coming here doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Furthermore, I doubt LeBron wants any part of playing in everybody else's shadows; we're not getting Kobe; is Amare really worth it?; does Bosh really help KG?...which brings us to Wade--do you want to throw that kind of money at an undersized 2 who plays physical ball? And by the way, why would he leave Miami to come here anyway? Fun in the sun 24/7 vs. 60-degree weather in June? And let's not forget, he's already won his ring. He could just play in Miami and put up huge numbers for the rest of his career and make the Hall of Fame as a winner.

The more realistic option, to me, is targeting Kevin Durant when his deal is up.

[Fencer reregistered]

This year I can envision somebody being dumped to make room for 2010. But next offseason? There aren't a lot of stars signed past 2010, at least not ones who'd make any sense in this kind of scenario.

[Fencer reregistered]

By the way, Scal, Eddie, Tony, Walker, Giddens, and Pruitt together could bring back >$14 million in salary this year.

If you want to agitate for -- e.g. -- Jason Richardson, it works under the CBA.

[sully00]

With the announcement that the salary cap for next now projects for 50-53 mil down from this years 57.7 and most teams like the Knicks had planned on a 60-63 mil cap, in some ways Gant has become very right and in others very wrong.

If the cap drops that much none of these guys will sever their Bird Rights. The max salary is a percentage of the cap that is reduction of 1.3 mil-2.1 mil in the year one salary. So instead of a FA contract of 16 mil they would get 13.9-14.7 in the first year. Most of these guys are giving up options that are over 17mil. So 3 mil a year plus the compounding raises.

For LeBron, Wade, and Kobe this means they are completely dependent on their present teams to extend their current contracts to not take a significant pay cut. That is why you are hearing LeBron isn't going anywhere because LeBron isn't going anywhere. Now these 3 I think their teams will give them their maxed out extension on their old salary.

At the next level Bosh, Amare, Joe Johnson, these are the guys in trouble. Their present teams are likely not willing to work with them at their current salary levels because they can get under the cap and buy a comparable player at a reduced price.

S&T are likely the only way guys like Wade or LeBron move at least willingly, if they were going to be giving up 30 mil before to go FA it could be as high as 50 mil with this cap projection. I could see Miami deciding they aren't going to extend Wade at the 17 mil salary and telling him to walk because they have no one under contract they would be a like new franchise with the number 1 pick and no cap limits why not start with two guys at 13-14 mil instead.

Teams will now have almost all the leverage in S&T scenarios it will essentially be just like a real trade as far as compensation and based on what kind of salary the team with the Bird rights is willing to accept I think there will also be more of signing & trading players back and forth in the same deal.

The union is about to get totally screwed here. They got greedy thinking about player movement and weren't paying attention to what the ownership had set up. Now the number of available FA's continues to rise while the cap just shrunk 15%-20% of the projection. There will likely be a flurry of extensions in the fall as teams are going to have 10-12 mil in projected cap space and 3 players under contract like we were talking about with Boston.

[jfs1000d]

Sully, clubs won't sign extensions if they think that takes them over the $60 million lux tax threshold in 2010-11. You can't have 17 teams paying this number (for 09-10 16 teams are over $60 million
), and having 13 teams that are under it take that revenue is an incredible imbalance.

This is a disaster not only for the players union,but also the NBA owners. The price of being a good nba team is now outrageous. There is no incentive to be good and spend money this year,and with a 2010-11 lux tax hold of $60 million? No one is going to try and get better.

This rapid depressing of salaries isn't good for the NBA either.

Think about it. If you are the grizzlies,don't you dare go anywhere near the cap,and then you get a fat check in the summer of 2011 from the 15 teams that went over. This is an incentive to be bad.

[CelticFaninLBC]

Sully,

What contracts could Boston use to get Wade? KG, Pierce and Sheed are going nowhere, so that leaves few contracts to match...

[sully00]

jfs,

The luxury tax in 10-11 isn't even the issue teams aren't going to be create salary exceptions to spend on the players. Outside of back and forth S&T deals, that will dry up quick as teams renounce guys, teams are only going to have minimum salaries to offer after their cap space is used up, no mle's, no lle's. You may well see renounced players, returning to their teams for the minimum just to keep their bird rights intact so they can get a legit contract the next year.

LBC

In a trade obviously Ray Allen, that will play out more into the summer and early fall. To me this is the most likely scenario.

In a S&T deal in the offseason about the only thing Boston can offer currently is a package around a resigned Rondo and Perkins. I don't see Riley just paying Ray when he can choose to do nothing. Even with those two it would likely take an additional 5 mil in salary to acquire Wade at 15-17 mil.

In sort of this brave new world of NBA salaries if Miami would see Perkins as enough of a centerpiece to to move Wade for. That way Riley enters the offseaon with Perkins, Beasley, and Chalmers totaling 10.2 mil dollars and he can have Cook if he wants at another 2 mil. Your talking 40 mil in cap space in Tax Free Miami and FA's everywhere.

[Rocky5000]

One thing being overlooked is that Pierce has a player option for 2010-11 of 21 million. He could opt out of his deal and sign for less. In fact, Ray Allen and Paul could conceivably end up splitting the 20 million they were each getting and play for 10 million each.

Why would Pierce do something like this? If he is really loyal to the team and is willing to sacrifice his salary in order to win. However, KG's 20 million + Paul and Ray's 10 each + Perk + Rasheed would put us at the cap level of projected cap level of 50 million, so we still can't get under the cap. Paul and Ray would have to resign for even less to make this scenario work.

On the other hand,
If Pierce turns out to be greedy, he still could opt out of his contract and look for more money elsewhere, maybe with the Clippers. With both Pierce and Ray Allen FAs, we'd have a very low team salary. The only contracts officially on the books would be KG, Perk and Rasheed, about 30 million. Big Baby, E House, Tony, Rondo, Scal, Walker, Giddens all have either team options or are expirings. Being at 30 million would allow us to make a MAX offer to one of the big fish.

Are either of these two scenarios likely? No, but they are still possible, and that's all that Wyc said. That is was possible.

[Dirty Water]

Sully, clubs won't sign extensions if they think that takes them over the $60 million lux tax threshold in 2010-11. You can't have 17 teams paying this number (for 09-10 16 teams are over $60 million
), and having 13 teams that are under it take that revenue is an incredible imbalance.

This is a disaster not only for the players union,but also the NBA owners. The price of being a good nba team is now outrageous. There is no incentive to be good and spend money this year,and with a 2010-11 lux tax hold of $60 million? No one is going to try and get better.

This rapid depressing of salaries isn't good for the NBA either.

Think about it. If you are the grizzlies,don't you dare go anywhere near the cap,and then you get a fat check in the summer of 2011 from the 15 teams that went over. This is an incentive to be bad.

We are in a recession. There is a reason this is going on.

[wigglestrue]

The max salary is a percentage of the cap that is reduction of 1.3 mil-2.1 mil in the year one salary. So instead of a FA contract of 16 mil they would get 13.9-14.7 in the first year. Most of these guys are giving up options that are over 17mil. So 3 mil a year plus the compounding raises.

For players with 7 years or more, the percentage is 30 not 25, I think.

[CelticFaninLBC]

jfs,

The luxury tax in 10-11 isn't even the issue teams aren't going to be create salary exceptions to spend on the players. Outside of back and forth S&T deals, that will dry up quick as teams renounce guys, teams are only going to have minimum salaries to offer after their cap space is used up, no mle's, no lle's. You may well see renounced players, returning to their teams for the minimum just to keep their bird rights intact so they can get a legit contract the next year.

LBC

In a trade obviously Ray Allen, that will play out more into the summer and early fall. To me this is the most likely scenario.

In a S&T deal in the offseason about the only thing Boston can offer currently is a package around a resigned Rondo and Perkins. I don't see Riley just paying Ray when he can choose to do nothing. Even with those two it would likely take an additional 5 mil in salary to acquire Wade at 15-17 mil.

In sort of this brave new world of NBA salaries if Miami would see Perkins as enough of a centerpiece to to move Wade for. That way Riley enters the offseaon with Perkins, Beasley, and Chalmers totaling 10.2 mil dollars and he can have Cook if he wants at another 2 mil. Your talking 40 mil in cap space in Tax Free Miami and FA's everywhere.

If Boston were to offer both Perkins & Rondo to get Wade, I can't see Wade wanting to sign with Boston. Wallace, KG, Pierce, Wade and whoever else wouldn't be contenders for more than a year...