Nailing down the roster

[Fencer reregistered]

Assuming Davis is re-signed and Daniels arrives in a trade that ships out Tony Allen -- and that there are no other trades -- the roster of 15 looks like:

Perk/Sheed/Williams/(Davis)
KG/(Sheed)/Davis/Scal
Pierce/Daniels/Walker
Allen/(Daniels)/House/Giddens
Rondo/(Daniels)/Mr. X

+ Mr. Y

Obvious candidates for the role of Mr. X include Marbury and Hudson.

Obvious candidates for the role of Mr. Y include the other of Marbury and Hudson, Tony Allen (if he's not shipped out in the Daniels trade), Leon Powe (potentially one of the best developmental investment possibilities), and a money-saving empty chair.

That said, I'm ranking Daniels pretty high in the rotation for a guy who's apt to come as cheaply as he appears likely to. Various guys -- starting with Fast Eddie House -- have a reasonable chance of taking some of the minutes I'm implicitly assigning to him.

E.g., I think the plan is probably still to get a vet PG, rather than rely on a rotation of Rondo/Daniels (out of position)/House (out of position)/Hudson (possibly out of position, definitely a rookie)

[Jammer]

It's obvious a third point guard will be brought in.
Whether Lester Hudson is it,
or Hudson goes to Europe,
or Hudson ends up part of a Marquis Daniels Sign & Trade is not yet clear.

I still think that Danny want's to dump Scal (remote) or Tony Allen by the end of the season
to reduce the luxury tax impact.

Whether the Clippers (possible) or Memphis (greatest need) or Sacramento (unlikely)
or even Minnesota (that would be funny)
facilitate the Sign & Trade by accepting Tony, with their cap space,
and sending cash or a pick to Indiana remains to be seen.
Minnesota would just take Tony, without sending anything other than the
rights to some long forgotten Euro, and forcing the Celtics
to cough up the cash or a pick to satisfy Indiana.

Sacramento is an unlikely destination for Tony because Tony is paid too much
to be a 3rd stringer on any team, he has to go to a team where
Tony WILL BE IN THE ROTATION IMMEDIATELY.

Teams like Detroit and Atlanta don't have the cap space reporters taunt because
if you have only 9 guys under contract you have to add contracts for
enough players to have a 13 man roster.

Detroit also has Ben Gordon and RIchard Hamilton, and
Oklahoma City doesn't need Tony, despite their cap space.

Minnesota has 13 players under contract, and would more likely
just take Tony, if they did take him, and require the Celtics
to send Indiana cash or a pick to facilitate the Sign and Trade for Daniels.

Sheldon Williams was obviously brought in to deter Glen Davis from holding out,
with the threat of his 4th Big rotation spot going to Sheldon,
and Davis having a minimal role, possibly, if he were to sign the 1 year Qualifying Offer.

If the Celtics are able to do the Sign and Trade
by sending Tony to the Clippers or Memphis (or, HA HA, Minnesota),
I don't think that the Celtics are going to carry 15 players, they will likely keep a spot
open, since they are lux tax payers,
rather than add a 7 footer, as sully has said, that can't play:

Position *** Starter ************** Backup *********** Active 12 ********** Inactive Lux Tax Sucker
Center **** Perkins ************* Rasheed ********** Williams
PF ********** KG ****************** Big Baby ??? ********** ********************* Scalabrine
SF ********** Pierce ************** Daniels ??? ********************************** Billy Walker
SG ********** Ray Allen ********** Daniels ??? ********** Giddens ************ Tony Allen
PG ********** Rajon ************** Eddie ************* Job Available

Davis' minutes could be extremely reduced except in blowouts or when someone is
injured this year. Although, KG could get his minutes reduced to. The thing is,
Pierce and Ray Allen can have their minutes reduced with the added depth Sheed
and a healthy Kevin Garnett will provide.

Assuming there is a minute reduction for KG, with Davis and Williams in the fold with Sheed,
I think it could be something along the lines of:

C: Perk 26 / Rasheed 22
PF: KG 28 / Rasheed 4 / Glen Davis 16
SF: Pierce 32 / Marquis Daniels 12 / Justin Ray Giddens or Billy Walker 4
SG: Ray Allen 32 / Marquis Daniels 16
PG: Rajon 31 / Eddie House 17

which is a 10 man rotation, if healthy, with total minutes, when healthy, of

32 Paul Pierce
32 Ray Allen
31 Rajon Rondo
28 Kevin Garnett
28 Marquis Daniels
26 Kendrick Perkins
26 Rasheed Wallace
17 Eddie House
16 Glen Davis
4 Justin Ray Giddens or Billy Walker
___
240

If Doc Rivers tries to improve players like Paul Pierce's stats with more minutes,
to get them on the All Star Team,
at this stage of their careers, he'd be making a BIG mistake.

Doc needs to save these guys so they have energy in the post season.

The third point guard will likely have to take an active roster spot,
as a precaution for injuries to Rajon and Eddie.

The 5th Big, another Center if they add one or Shelden Williams or Scal,
will likely only see time in blowouts. If Scal is still in the rotation when
players aren't injured something is wrong.

[exculpatory]

Fencer and Jammer have it nailed. Very astute analyses and projections, guys.

Fencer: Marbury, I believe, should be Mr. X. I believe he has matured enough that he realizes that this is his best chance for a ring, albeit as a back-up for RR. I also think that he has gas left in the tank. Putting aside his mental status, this guy once had "off the charts" talent, and I think, after a full training camp, he will show us that he still has some of these skills. Mr. Y I think will end up being another back-up big. In an ideal world, if Houston wants to rebuild this year and let go of Battier, a trade of a Giddens, Walker, cash, a pick or some combination thereof, for Shane would be orgasmic. But I realize that is very unlikely.

If KG returns as the 2008 KG, we are winning #18 guys.

[chakdaddy]

It will be tough to save any luxury tax by trading Scal or TA, unless TA manages to go in the sign and trade. In most other cases we would be taking salary back with no net savings.

At this point, I would rather keep TA as the 15th guy, and try to trade him and Scal together as expirings for a vet at the deadline, depending on what our holes look like.

I suppose TA could go in a deal like Patrick O'Bryant's or something where we give cash for someone with cap and roster room to take him.