minutes projection csnne.com

[Gant]

It's as good a guess as anybody's.

Projecting the Celtics Minutes

Rich Levine

http://csnne.com/pages/landing?Projecti ... eedID=3352

[captain green]

yep, while I hope we get more from lester, I think he's right on.

[SonicYouth34]

17 mins for Tony Allen?

[Spin Move]

Those minutes DO NOT add up to the right amount he has may way more minutes, unless we are switching to a 74 minute game then were ok.

[GoGoCeltics]

Those minutes DO NOT add up to the right amount he has may way more minutes, unless we are switching to a 74 minute game then were ok.

Not every player plays in every game.

[Spin Move]

Those minutes DO NOT add up to the right amount he has may way more minutes, unless we are switching to a 74 minute game then were ok.

Not every player plays in every game.

Yes, but if your projecting minutes for a team the total is going to be over the course of 82 games 19680 minutes, projecting mpg without saying this player will only play 32 games is pretty meaningless, the stat stands for in an average game, about what do we expect a given player to play, so by inflating the total number of minutes you make the projection pretty worthless.

[chas0x01]

Those minutes assume that some players will be DNP status at various times throughout the season.

[greenmachine_2849]

These are my predictions (for games in which everyone is available):

Rondo: 37 (all at PG)
Pierce: 33 (SF)
R Allen: 32 (SG)
Perkins: 28 (C)
Garnett: 26 (PF)
Wallace: 24 (20 at C, 4 at PF)
Daniels: 23 (15 at SF, 8 at SG)
Davis: 18 (PF)
House: 11 (PG)
Giddens: 8 (SG)

[Hemingway]

Am I the only one who doesn't see the big 3 playing much less than last year. I know we will want to but we say it every year.

[greenmachine_2849]

Am I the only one who doesn't see the big 3 playing much less than last year. I know we will want to but we say it every year.

This is only the third year of the big three, so we don't have much history to base that on. Having said that, we know that:

a) last year all three of them looked overworked and/or broken down by the end of the last season, particular Pierce and Garnett.
b)all of them are either already past the conventional prime age range of 27-33 or on the tail end of it.
c) Ainge has worked hard this off-season to have as many quality back-ups as possible for the big three, especially Garnett.

All of this points to at least a plan of reducing minutes for Garnett, Pierce, and Allen. Obviously, if Marquis Daniels or Rasheed Wallace gets injured during an exhibition game and has to miss the first two months of the season, the plan goes out the window. But I will say that, in a perfect world, I wouldn't mind seeing everybody except for Rondo held to 30 mpg or under. And I think, at full strength, we have the depth to do that this year.

[Spin Move]

Those minutes assume that some players will be DNP status at various times throughout the season.

His total adds up to 271+ mpg, there are only 240, so he has got an extra 37 minutes a game, so unless your assuming that one of the big 3 misses 4/5ths of the season those numbers don't add up to anything close to meaningful, you cant have Perk and KG averaging 28 and 27 and sheed and baby averaging 30 and 24.8 respectively there's just not that many minutes, if KG and Perk play 28 and 27 minutes that leaves 41 minutes for the rest of the team in the front court, Without any minutes for Veal or Sheldon Williams that leaves his current projections 13 minutes over (much more if you take into account other players). If your going to use MPG you need to either say x will play 55 games, for people like JR giddons who wont play every game its ok to be off a little, but on an average night how much is paul pierce going to play? here are my projections for minutes

PG:Rondo 34 Daniels 8 House 6
SG: Ray 28, Daniels 10, House 10
SF: Pierce 30, Daniels 10, TA 4 Baby 4
PF KG 28. Baby 12, Sheed 8
C: Perk 28 Sheed 20

Player Total
Rondo 34
Pierce 30
Ray 28
Perk 28
KG 28
Daniels 28
Sheed 28
Baby 16
TA 4


Deep Bench
Veal, Walker or Giddons

Mostly inactive
Williams, Hudson Walker or Giddons

D- League
Lester Hudson

[sully00]

There is more than 240 mpg but the slack is not near what this guy is talking about it is about 1.7 mins a game. If KG misses a dozen games that is another 4 mpg.

I think that the easiest way to look at this is your starters are going to go roughly 30 and your back ups will go 20. I understand that people want to think that Wallace and Daniels are going to play more but just from game rotations it is difficult for a player who doesn't play the first 8 or the last 8 to play much more than 20 mpg. While you can build your rotation around maximizing bench players mins, that isn't what Boston is going to do, quite the opposite, it is about how they handle Pierce and Allen. They are the two guys who will play more than 30 and how much more will be based on how necessary they are to anchor that second unit. If it gets Daniels 28 mpg great but if it means he is closer to 20 and more mins to someone else so be it.

So figure Daniels will play more than 20 but probably less than 24 and Wallace will clock in a solid 24 because Perk isn't going to play the last 8 and loses mins to fouls. Davis is going to get 16-20 depending what load KG carries.

Rondo played 33 mpg last season, if needed he can play more but the more mins he plays he is actually less effective on the defensive end. While I don't want House on the ball I would expect him to get the mins that Rondo doesn't play. Eddie House has tendency to force coaches to play him because of his shooting ability. I don't know that Eddie is going to play 20 mpg every game but he will probably get pretty close to that because of the nights he just forces Doc to keep him on the floor.

I think Boston will primarily have a 9 man rotation with TA, Scal, and Hudson on the outside looking for mins. I thought Walker would be able to carve out a role in the first half to limit Pierce's mins but the injury is certainly a blow. TA has a much better command of the defense than Daniels so early he will get a shot to keep his role and make it 10 man rotation but I can't say I can expect his body and play to maintain it. Scal will get mins here and there as he always does. Hudson is a wild card, mostly because of Pruitt's departure there is certainly a role for a guy who can defend the point and make a jumper on this team.

[SLCceltic]

Rondo-37
Pierce-36
Ray-34-37
KG-35-36
Sheed-30-32
Perk-18-20.................................Sheed/Perk/Baby is all about matching up and energy minutes
Baby-10-15

Daniels-20
Eddie-18-20

TA/Hudson-5-10

[MyInsatiableOne]

There's a post on Red's Army with a quote from Doc saying he's not going to limit minutes for the starters...

http://www.redsarmy.com/home/2009/10/doc-wont-limit-starters-minutes.html

I think Doc's great, but this is not good news...