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Hal’s Draft Thread

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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1541 » by Andrew McCeltic » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:24 pm

Like, yeah you scout the second round thoroughly - you never know who you might hit on. They bring in obscure players for workouts every draft. Abdel Nader they’d apparently tracked since high school! But the collective intelligence of the NBA is not bad - guys go in the second round for a reason.
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1542 » by Hal14 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:28 pm

steefP2 wrote:
Hal14 wrote:
Homerclease wrote:I hate to quote myself, but these two sentences somehow translated into every euro prospect is somehow garbage.

Hal, am I not entitled to my opinion above that hopefully Yam Maders game translates to the American style of Basketball?

You're obviously entitled to your opinion. I'm just not understanding why the need for skepticism about Madar? You're skeptical about him simply because he's from overseas.

All I'm saying is that sounds kind of silly, considering the MVP of the NBA this year is from overseas (Jokic)..the NBA finals MVP this year is from overseas (Giannis). There's so many other good NBA players right now from overseas (Bojan Bogdanovic, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Rubio, Doncic, Fournier, Satoransky, Gobert, Gasol, Kanter, Zubac, Porzingis, etc.). All of them have successfully made the transition from overseas basketball to NBA. You named 1 guy who didn't pan out a few yrs ago. I'm just not seeing any reason to think Madar will turn out to be a bust like Zizic rather than a success like the guys I named, but to each his own..



I think the problem here that some posters have is the amount of certainty you project about some of these prospects and Madar. It’s clear you’re high on the guy and that’s totally fair but the way you talk about him projects a level of certainty that many feel is unwarranted. The season to be sceptic is that the league Yam played in is not terribly impressive and while there have been many successful international players, many did not meet NBA standards. Obviously you could be very right but he’s had 1 good season in a league where the talent is hard to compare to the nba. That’s not a significant sample size to judge him on with such vehemence imo

The league Madar has played in is better competition than the NCAA. He's playing against grown men who are professionals getting paid to play basketball as their job, most of them ages 23-33. NCAA is kids age 18-22, most of whom will be selling software for Microsoft once they're out of college.

The Israeli Basketball Premier League is considered one of the better pro leagues in Europe. Teams from the Israeli Basketball Premier League have played vs NBA teams in exhibition games many times over the years, including a win over the Toronto Raptors in 2005. Many of its players have gone on to play in the NBA.

Madar has played 3 seasons in the Israeli Basketball Premier League, showing steady improvement each of those 3 years, he won the league's Most Improved Player award this year. That's a lot of professional seasons for a kid who's only 20 years old. Especially when you consider most of the players projected as lottery picks in this year's draft are kids who are only 18 or 19 yrs old and only played 1 season of college basketball - again, the Israeli league is superior competition to the NCAA. Think about all of the players who went straight from high school to the pros (LeBron, Kobe, Garnett, etc.) they played 0 seasons of college ball - you're saying Madar is unproven but he's played 3 season professionally. Not to mention Madar has been a member of Israel's national team for over 2 yrs.

Sounds like we're getting off track here, though. This thread is supposed to be about the 2021 NBA draft. Madar was picked in the 2020 draft..
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1543 » by CeltsfaninDC » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:45 pm

Never has so much been written about a draft pick that will never amount to anything
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1544 » by snowman » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:48 pm

What do you guys think about Matthew Hurt out of Duke at pick 45 ?
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1545 » by CeltsfanSinceBirth » Thu Jul 22, 2021 7:58 pm

Hal14 wrote:Think about all of the players who went straight from high school to the pros (LeBron, Kobe, Garnett, etc.) they played 0 seasons of college ball - you're saying Madar is unproven but he's played 3 season professionally. Not to mention Madar has been a member of Israel's national team for over 2 yrs.



You’re really going to mention Madar in the same sentence as Lebron, Kobe and KG? LOLOLOLOLOLOL
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1546 » by Hal14 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:11 pm

CeltsfaninDC wrote:Never has so much been written about a draft pick that will never amount to anything

Gee, you're a real ray of sunshine. Thanks for the reminder that we have the most negative fan base in sports.
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1547 » by Half-Full » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:14 pm

CeltsfaninDC wrote:Never has so much been written about a draft pick that will never amount to anything


As I posted elsewhere, the odds of drafting an all-star player in the second round is approx 2.4%. The odds for a "decent" player is approx 7%. The odds of drafting a player that stays in the league 3 years is approx 26%. Those odds might be slightly better as many believe the draft is deeper than usual. So, not the best odds, but "never amount to anything"? We all know that the odds are long, but hope springs eternal, eh?
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1548 » by CeltsfaninDC » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:20 pm

Hal14 wrote:
CeltsfaninDC wrote:Never has so much been written about a draft pick that will never amount to anything

Gee, you're a real ray of sunshine. Thanks for the reminder that we have the most negative fan base in sports.

LOL
You think I'm negative because I'm not spending days analyzing a late 2nd round pick that will make absolutely no difference to this team? This pick may not even be ours by the time they draft and this team does not need another young prospect that everyone else passed on in the 1st round. It'll be a project who'll spend all their time in Maine. But please, continue your analysis. We're all enjoying it tremendously
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1549 » by Hal14 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:22 pm

The Pacers are doing video interviews with ever player who comes to work out for them. It's cool because you're able to see what these players are like as people, as human beings, what drives them, how they see themself as a player, etc. Drafting good character guys who are the right types of people is important.

Here's the one with Moses Wright:


Really seems like a humble, down to earth guy but at the same time a guy who is driven, motivated and determined to prove he can play in the NBA. He seems to be focused on being a high energy player, being coachable, a guy who can do all of the little things well, doesn't have to score to make an impact. Seems like a guy who has no ego, not a selfish player, just a guy who wants to come in, work hard and help the team. Smiling a lot too which tells you he might be a guy who brings some positivity to the locker room and keep everyone feeling upbeat. In 1 of the scrimmages at the combine, when his team was getting some momentum you saw him getting all pumped up, high fiving teammates, rallying the troops out there, which you like to see.

He says that he played AAU for David West's AAU program, he's worked out a lot with West and says that West is his mentor - very encouraging that Wright has worked out so much with a former NBA all-star - not only that but a former NBA all-star who plays the same position as Wright (PF)...it makes sense, too - Wright's game actually resembles West's in a lot of ways. If Wright can be a player similar to David West (maybe not as good but even if he's almost as good) you're looking at a solid 4 man in the NBA for a long time.

You see that high energy and positivity on display at the draft combine. Here's highlights from 1 of the 2 scrimmages he played in at the combine:


3:17 love the hustle and chase down block
Earlier in the video he throws down an alley-oop dunk by hustling past the defense to be in position for the lob in transition
5:51 really nice pass from top of key to a cutter for a layup

So in a short video (all from 1 game) we're seeing that he can run the floor in transition, he's a lob threat, he hustles on defense, can block shots and he can make good passes, has unselfishness.

6'9" with a 7'1" wingspan. He's one of the guys I'm high on and think he should be on the C's radar..
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1550 » by CeltsfaninDC » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:24 pm

Half-Full wrote:
CeltsfaninDC wrote:Never has so much been written about a draft pick that will never amount to anything


As I posted elsewhere, the odds of drafting an all-star player in the second round is approx 2.4%. The odds for a "decent" player is approx 7%. The odds of drafting a player that stays in the league 3 years is approx 26%. Those odds might be slightly better as many believe the draft is deeper than usual. So, not the best odds, but "never amount to anything"? We all know that the odds are long, but hope springs eternal, eh?

I'm done with hoping for the one guy that we happen to draft in the 2nd round turning into Ginobili. We've stashed guys, we've held onto a whole team of end-of-the-bench guys for a few years now. If this team is going to truly make a push then we need to stop looking for unicorns in the 2ndR and start finding younger vets that can fill holes on the roster and step in when needed. We have a bunch of midgets and a giant on the bench now and not one of them can help this team win.

I guess I'm being negative for wanting this team to give Tatum the tools he needs to get a banner
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1551 » by playa-hater » Thu Jul 22, 2021 8:56 pm

snowman wrote:What do you guys think about Matthew Hurt out of Duke at pick 45 ?


a very good one trick pony.. but on the right team, it's good to have one like this.
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1552 » by Hal14 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:19 pm

CeltsfaninDC wrote:this team does not need another young prospect that everyone else passed on in the 1st round. It'll be a project who'll spend all their time in Maine.

I actually agree, to some extent. We have so many (probably too many) players age 23 or younger as it is, especially with Moses Brown added to the team and Madar possibly making the team.

That's why my top 2 choices for who we should target with this pick are both guys who are likely to spend a year (maybe 2) stashed overseas or stashed on our G-League team but after that they both have super high upside / high ceiling, like really good potential. I have them both ranked as top 20 prospects in this class yet both will likely still be on the board at no. 45. Both sleeper picks who IMO could turn out to be the steal of the draft when it's all said and done.

So you can have your cake and eat it too. They wouldn't take up a roster spot next year (and possibly not the year after either) so we can fill out our roster with veterans, while at the same time we've got a guy stashed away developing, working on his game, working on his body so eventually he could end up being a damn good NBA player.

Those 2 guys are Juhann Begarin and Santi Aldama.

Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Isaiah Todd and Greg Brown also fit this description - guys who are young and raw but have super high upside / high ceiling so we could stash them (either overseas or on G league team) for 1, maybe even 2 yrs..

With that being said, if we trim some of the fat by getting rid of guys like Ojeleye, Edwards, Waters, Kornet, Fall (maybe even Parker and Thompson) now there's enough roster spots open for us to add some good veteran players AND add a solid player here with our 45th pick. This is a very deep draft. And after the first 5 or 10 players, the players ranked 11-50 for the most part are fairly interchangeable. So you could get a player with 45th pick who's actually just as good (if not better) than many of the players taken in the 1st round..
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1553 » by canman1971 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:43 pm

Hal14 wrote:
CeltsfaninDC wrote:this team does not need another young prospect that everyone else passed on in the 1st round. It'll be a project who'll spend all their time in Maine.

I actually agree, to some extent. We have so many (probably too many) players age 23 or younger as it is, especially with Moses Brown added to the team and Madar possibly making the team.

That's why my top 2 choices for who we should target with this pick are both guys who are likely to spend a year (maybe 2) stashed overseas or stashed on our G-League team but after that they both have super high upside / high ceiling, like really good potential. I have them both ranked as top 20 prospects in this class yet both will likely still be on the board at no. 45. Both sleeper picks who IMO could turn out to be the steal of the draft when it's all said and done.

So you can have your cake and eat it too. They wouldn't take up a roster spot next year (and possibly not the year after either) so we can fill out our roster with veterans, while at the same time we've got a guy stashed away developing, working on his game, working on his body so eventually he could end up being a damn good NBA player.

Those 2 guys are Juhann Begarin and Santi Aldama.

Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Isaiah Todd and Greg Brown also fit this description - guys who are young and raw but have super high upside / high ceiling so we could stash them (either overseas or on G league team) for 1, maybe even 2 yrs..

With that being said, if we trim some of the fat by getting rid of guys like Ojeleye, Edwards, Waters, Kornet, Fall (maybe even Parker and Thompson) now there's enough roster spots open for us to add some good veteran players AND add a solid player here with our 45th pick. This is a very deep draft. And after the first 5 or 10 players, the players ranked 11-50 for the most part are fairly interchangeable. So you could get a player with 45th pick who's actually just as good (if not better) than many of the players taken in the 1st round..

This is ridiculous. Yep, that's it.
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1554 » by sam_I_am » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:51 pm

Andrew McCeltic wrote:Like, yeah you scout the second round thoroughly - you never know who you might hit on. They bring in obscure players for workouts every draft. Abdel Nader they’d apparently tracked since high school! But the collective intelligence of the NBA is not bad - guys go in the second round for a reason.


David Robinson was 6 ft PG in high school and went to Naval Academy because he wasn’t recruited. He then grew a foot and at age 22 was #1 pick in draft. Now that players are drafted at age 18-19 it’s surprising it doesn’t happen more often.

I would love for Madar to be a steal. Really hoping it happens but realistically it seems like a long shot. Giannis was still called the Greek freak in his league when he was projected as a late first rounder. Madar was MIP in Israel.....but he wasn’t MVP like Doncic. He seems like a solid but unspectacular prospect even over there. It will be a home run of a pick if he is almost as good as Shane Larson.
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1555 » by Hal14 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:54 pm

canman1971 wrote:
Hal14 wrote:
CeltsfaninDC wrote:this team does not need another young prospect that everyone else passed on in the 1st round. It'll be a project who'll spend all their time in Maine.

I actually agree, to some extent. We have so many (probably too many) players age 23 or younger as it is, especially with Moses Brown added to the team and Madar possibly making the team.

That's why my top 2 choices for who we should target with this pick are both guys who are likely to spend a year (maybe 2) stashed overseas or stashed on our G-League team but after that they both have super high upside / high ceiling, like really good potential. I have them both ranked as top 20 prospects in this class yet both will likely still be on the board at no. 45. Both sleeper picks who IMO could turn out to be the steal of the draft when it's all said and done.

So you can have your cake and eat it too. They wouldn't take up a roster spot next year (and possibly not the year after either) so we can fill out our roster with veterans, while at the same time we've got a guy stashed away developing, working on his game, working on his body so eventually he could end up being a damn good NBA player.

Those 2 guys are Juhann Begarin and Santi Aldama.

Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Isaiah Todd and Greg Brown also fit this description - guys who are young and raw but have super high upside / high ceiling so we could stash them (either overseas or on G league team) for 1, maybe even 2 yrs..

With that being said, if we trim some of the fat by getting rid of guys like Ojeleye, Edwards, Waters, Kornet, Fall (maybe even Parker and Thompson) now there's enough roster spots open for us to add some good veteran players AND add a solid player here with our 45th pick. This is a very deep draft. And after the first 5 or 10 players, the players ranked 11-50 for the most part are fairly interchangeable. So you could get a player with 45th pick who's actually just as good (if not better) than many of the players taken in the 1st round..

This is ridiculous. Yep, that's it.

Anything of substance to back up that opinion?

Keon Johnson is projected to go in the 8-15 range. IMO Begarin (projected to go in the 50-60 range) is better.

Isaiah Jackson is projected to go in the 10-25 range. IMO Aldama and Moses Wright (both projected in the 45-60 range) are both better.

I'm actually not the only one who has Aldama ranked in the top 20. But again, he's projected to go in the 45-60 range.

I've seen some people call Sengun the best player in the draft. Others have him ranked in the 30-35 range.

Some people have Davion Mitchell going 7th overall - others have him ranked in the 28-32 range.

Jay Bilas has Corey Kispert ranked 10th on his big board. Others who have a sharp basketball mind have him ranked in the 30-32 range.

Some folks who really know their sh*t have BJ Boston ranked as a top 15 player in this class - others have him slated to go early-mid 2nd round.

One expert has Jaden Springer ranked no. 36 while others have him in their top 10. I honestly think he has an argument for possibly being better than Jalen Suggs, who's projected to go in the top 4 picks.

I saw someone yesterday who had Kessler Edwards ranked 15th....and one expert who has him ranked 57th.

This draft is all over the place. There's a good chance that someone really good slips. Or you just nab a sleeper in the 2nd round who ends up being a top 15-20 player in the draft. That's all I'm saying..
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1556 » by canman1971 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 9:57 pm

Hal14 wrote:
canman1971 wrote:
Hal14 wrote:I actually agree, to some extent. We have so many (probably too many) players age 23 or younger as it is, especially with Moses Brown added to the team and Madar possibly making the team.

That's why my top 2 choices for who we should target with this pick are both guys who are likely to spend a year (maybe 2) stashed overseas or stashed on our G-League team but after that they both have super high upside / high ceiling, like really good potential. I have them both ranked as top 20 prospects in this class yet both will likely still be on the board at no. 45. Both sleeper picks who IMO could turn out to be the steal of the draft when it's all said and done.

So you can have your cake and eat it too. They wouldn't take up a roster spot next year (and possibly not the year after either) so we can fill out our roster with veterans, while at the same time we've got a guy stashed away developing, working on his game, working on his body so eventually he could end up being a damn good NBA player.

Those 2 guys are Juhann Begarin and Santi Aldama.

Vrenz Bleijenbergh, Isaiah Todd and Greg Brown also fit this description - guys who are young and raw but have super high upside / high ceiling so we could stash them (either overseas or on G league team) for 1, maybe even 2 yrs..

With that being said, if we trim some of the fat by getting rid of guys like Ojeleye, Edwards, Waters, Kornet, Fall (maybe even Parker and Thompson) now there's enough roster spots open for us to add some good veteran players AND add a solid player here with our 45th pick. This is a very deep draft. And after the first 5 or 10 players, the players ranked 11-50 for the most part are fairly interchangeable. So you could get a player with 45th pick who's actually just as good (if not better) than many of the players taken in the 1st round..

This is ridiculous. Yep, that's it.

Anything of substance to back up that opinion?

Keon Johnson is projected to go in the 8-15 range. IMO Begarin (projected to go in the 50-60 range) is better.

Isaiah Jackson is projected to go in the 10-25 range. IMO Aldama and Moses Wright (both projected in the 45-60 range) are both better.

I've seen some people call Sengun the best player in the draft. Others have him ranked in the 30-35 range.

Some people have Davion Mitchell going 7th overall - others have him ranked in the 28-32 range.

Jay Bilas has Corey Kispert ranked 10th on his big board. Others who have a sharp basketball mind have him ranked in the 30-32 range.

Some folks who really know their sh*t have BJ Boston ranked as a top 15 player in this class - others have him slated to go early-mid 2nd round.

Nope. That's it.
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1557 » by Hal14 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:00 pm

sam_I_am wrote:
Andrew McCeltic wrote:Like, yeah you scout the second round thoroughly - you never know who you might hit on. They bring in obscure players for workouts every draft. Abdel Nader they’d apparently tracked since high school! But the collective intelligence of the NBA is not bad - guys go in the second round for a reason.


David Robinson was 6 ft PG in high school and went to Naval Academy because he wasn’t recruited. He then grew a foot and at age 22 was #1 pick in draft. Now that players are drafted at age 18-19 it’s surprising it doesn’t happen more often.

I would love for Madar to be a steal. Really hoping it happens but realistically it seems like a long shot. Giannis was still called the Greek freak in his league when he was projected as a late first rounder. Madar was MIP in Israel.....but he wasn’t MVP like Doncic. He seems like a solid but unspectacular prospect even over there. It will be a home run of a pick if he is almost as good as Shane Larson.

Tony Parker wasn't thought of very highly in France before he came over to the NBA either. I saw an article the other day where someone (who played with Parker in France prior to him coming to the NBA) was saying how shocked he was that Parker turned into a star over here.

You never know. All you can do is make the best projections you can based on the footage you see, the physical profile, the athleticism, the size, the translatable skills, the hustle/grit/motor, the character, etc.

Also, it doesn't have to be so black and white. It's like you're making it seem like every player is either going to be either a superstar like David Robinson/Doncic/Giannis and if not, then they flame out of the league like Shane Larkin. The more likely scenario is something in between..
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1558 » by MagicBagley18 » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:04 pm

Man stevens really is a genius.....he gives up #16 in the draft to shed kemba -BUT WAIT!?!?!! (sham wow infomercial voice) he really didn’t because picks 11-50 are interchangeable so we actually have a true 1st @45

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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1559 » by Celts17Pride » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:16 pm

Whoever the Celtics pick at 45 the majority of the posters in RealGM will be begging Ime Udoka to start the player by mid season. It is what it is
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Re: 2021 Pick your #45 Player that Likely Won't Play for the Boston Celtics Draft Thread...at least in '21-'22 

Post#1560 » by Curmudgeon » Thu Jul 22, 2021 10:22 pm

If you are looking for quality late in the draft you should be looking for two things: first, a player who does one thing really well. and second, a player who wants to be good and is willing to put in the work. Nowadays every team has film and scouting reports on just about every player, but sometimes teams miss what is inside. Ime Udoka was a case in point.

Joe Ingles, Troy Hudson, Carl Braun (5 time all-star), Marquis Daniels, David Wesley, Darrell Armstrong, Raja Bell, Brad Miller, JJ Barea, Fred VanVleet, Wes Matthews, Avery Johnson, Udonis Haslem (18 years with the Heat), Bruce Bowen, John Starks and Ben Wallace (4 time all-star) all went UNdrafted but had very successful careers.
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