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What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#101 » by Jaqua92 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:35 am

31to6 wrote:If Luka is LeBron with a lot less athleticism I agree that Tatum’s looking like KD minus two inches.
I think that's almost fair. I'd say Jayson could be a KD light minus two inches. Although he's showing signs of becoming a lethal offense and defensive player, the other 3 are mvp calibur players. If he can keep up 26/8/3 on 48%+ shooting for entire seasons, then he could make mvp noise if the Celtics win a conference.

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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#102 » by Jaqua92 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:41 am

I think people calling him a possible contender for GOAT contested 3 point shooter and ceiling as "best player in the league" need to pump the brakes just a bit here.

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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#103 » by Jaqua92 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 12:58 am

sam_I_am wrote:
Wes-J wrote:I've really gone back and forth with this since he was drafted. As a college prospect I honestly admit he was not all-star caliber but a very good player that averages 15ish, think Hedo Turkoglu. Please don't kill me.

Then after his rookie season I was convinced he had top ten potential but then came the sophomore season where his flaws were exposed and I was thinking more along the lines of a top 25-30 player at best. Now I've got him in the top 15 range with a good shot for top 10 but absolutely not top 5.

What some are missing is the fact that the top 5 guys are elite creators, not just for themselves but for their teammates. They see all the angles. They are a coaches worst nightmare because they make others better. Tatum hasn't shown that. He's the ultimate iso guy. Not particularly strong at the basket and must figure out a way to take advantage of getting to the line more.

His ceiling, don't kill me. I see Grant Hill with superior range. Sorry I don't get the Pierce comparisons at all. Pierce lived in the post and was a very strong finisher with that body of his he could absorb contact and power through anybody. Mid-range was elite and was a guy that could facilitate offense. Great emotional leader.


The comparison to Pierce I would make is this: Tatum is already a lot better than Pierce was at age 21. Nobody loved Pierce as a player early in his career more than me, so I don’t say this lightly. I think of peak Paul Pierce as his floor and he has already nearly reached that stage.
Tatum isn't even close to peak Pierce.

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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#104 » by Gomes3PC » Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:25 am

Jaqua92 wrote:
sam_I_am wrote:
Wes-J wrote:I've really gone back and forth with this since he was drafted. As a college prospect I honestly admit he was not all-star caliber but a very good player that averages 15ish, think Hedo Turkoglu. Please don't kill me.

Then after his rookie season I was convinced he had top ten potential but then came the sophomore season where his flaws were exposed and I was thinking more along the lines of a top 25-30 player at best. Now I've got him in the top 15 range with a good shot for top 10 but absolutely not top 5.

What some are missing is the fact that the top 5 guys are elite creators, not just for themselves but for their teammates. They see all the angles. They are a coaches worst nightmare because they make others better. Tatum hasn't shown that. He's the ultimate iso guy. Not particularly strong at the basket and must figure out a way to take advantage of getting to the line more.

His ceiling, don't kill me. I see Grant Hill with superior range. Sorry I don't get the Pierce comparisons at all. Pierce lived in the post and was a very strong finisher with that body of his he could absorb contact and power through anybody. Mid-range was elite and was a guy that could facilitate offense. Great emotional leader.


The comparison to Pierce I would make is this: Tatum is already a lot better than Pierce was at age 21. Nobody loved Pierce as a player early in his career more than me, so I don’t say this lightly. I think of peak Paul Pierce as his floor and he has already nearly reached that stage.
Tatum isn't even close to peak Pierce.

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That's not what he said. He said Tatum today is better than Pierce at 21, and he's right.

Difference is, Pierce took like 2-3 more leaps after 21. Does Tatum have 2-3 more gears to step up into? We shall see. I tend to believe so, but not all guys just get better and better after 21 like Pierce did (see Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, etc. etc.).
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#105 » by Bar Fight » Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:16 am

If he improves his playmaking I see him as a top 5 player in the league.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#106 » by Wes-J » Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:11 am

Gomes3PC wrote:
Jaqua92 wrote:
sam_I_am wrote:
The comparison to Pierce I would make is this: Tatum is already a lot better than Pierce was at age 21. Nobody loved Pierce as a player early in his career more than me, so I don’t say this lightly. I think of peak Paul Pierce as his floor and he has already nearly reached that stage.
Tatum isn't even close to peak Pierce.

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That's not what he said. He said Tatum today is better than Pierce at 21, and he's right.

Difference is, Pierce took like 2-3 more leaps after 21. Does Tatum have 2-3 more gears to step up into? We shall see. I tend to believe so, but not all guys just get better and better after 21 like Pierce did (see Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, etc. etc.).


Comparisons like that don't amount to a hill a of beans.

Player development is so much different now than it was 20 yrs ago plus.

Bottomline Tatum is on his way.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#107 » by sam_I_am » Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:05 am

Gomes3PC wrote:
Jaqua92 wrote:
sam_I_am wrote:
The comparison to Pierce I would make is this: Tatum is already a lot better than Pierce was at age 21. Nobody loved Pierce as a player early in his career more than me, so I don’t say this lightly. I think of peak Paul Pierce as his floor and he has already nearly reached that stage.
Tatum isn't even close to peak Pierce.

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That's not what he said. He said Tatum today is better than Pierce at 21, and he's right.

Difference is, Pierce took like 2-3 more leaps after 21. Does Tatum have 2-3 more gears to step up into? We shall see. I tend to believe so, but not all guys just get better and better after 21 like Pierce did (see Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, etc. etc.).


Not many players get trashed for poor 3 pt shooting and poor finishing at the rim .... and improve those flaws in a matter of weeks making those critics look foolish. I really am not going out on a limb here. I am not just making a hot take to get people riled up. Arguing against this in the face of the obvious talent, skill and undeniable results is risky. In fact, the counter opinions to Tatum are going to look really silly really soon. I am actually just being captain obvious here. Tatum is a beast already and he isn’t even fully mature physically or close to as strong as he can be.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#108 » by greenroom31 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:41 pm

Tatum is going to be one of the best players in the league and he's already on the way there.

Offensively, his step back 3 can't be defended. He's too tall and has too high of a release for pretty much anyone to bother it. That shooting sets up his drives to the basket, and he has improved mightily at getting to the rim and finishing this year. On top of that, he can stop on a dime if he sees trouble at the rim and hit a fadeaway jumper, again with the high release. When he's feeling it he is unstoppable and we're seeing him get hot and singlehandedly go on runs in quarters that demolish other teams and break their spirits.

Defensively Tatum has the length, strength and quick feet to be a problem for almost any opponent, irrespective of size or position. Really big 5s like Embiid will always be a problem for him, as will incredibly quick 1s, but just about everyone else he can defend.

On top of that he's a good rebounder with broad shoulders and his passing is improving. He's a good teammate and stays very calm. He has shown the ability to hit game winners and perform in the clutch. Not really sure what else you would want to see from him at this stage, but if I'm being super nit-picky, things he is still lacking include:

1) Better court vision and playmaking (he's showing improvement but still not super high level here)
2) More consistency on the offensive end (even though the last month he's been on fire)
3) Freak athleticism (he's a good athlete but not on the level of some other guys)

Given that he's still only 21, more time and experience will improve both #1 and #2, and while he'll never be a Giannis level athlete, he's good enough that it shouldn't hold him back.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#109 » by OldCeltics » Tue Feb 11, 2020 1:43 pm

Tatum's ceiling is Super Saiyin 4 with Ultra Instinct.

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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#110 » by sam_I_am » Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:10 pm

greenroom31 wrote:Tatum is going to be one of the best players in the league and he's already on the way there.

Offensively, his step back 3 can't be defended. He's too tall and has too high of a release for pretty much anyone to bother it. That shooting sets up his drives to the basket, and he has improved mightily at getting to the rim and finishing this year. On top of that, he can stop on a dime if he sees trouble at the rim and hit a fadeaway jumper, again with the high release. When he's feeling it he is unstoppable and we're seeing him get hot and singlehandedly go on runs in quarters that demolish other teams and break their spirits.

Defensively Tatum has the length, strength and quick feet to be a problem for almost any opponent, irrespective of size or position. Really big 5s like Embiid will always be a problem for him, as will incredibly quick 1s, but just about everyone else he can defend.

On top of that he's a good rebounder with broad shoulders and his passing is improving. He's a good teammate and stays very calm. He has shown the ability to hit game winners and perform in the clutch. Not really sure what else you would want to see from him at this stage, but if I'm being super nit-picky, things he is still lacking include:

1) Better court vision and playmaking (he's showing improvement but still not super high level here)
2) More consistency on the offensive end (even though the last month he's been on fire)
3) Freak athleticism (he's a good athlete but not on the level of some other guys)

Given that he's still only 21, more time and experience will improve both #1 and #2, and while he'll never be a Giannis level athlete, he's good enough that it shouldn't hold him back.


I also would stop short of comparing him to Durant. He does a lot of the same things as KD but KD is longer, was more explosive, has a better handle, and could get his shot off much more easily. KD, Lebron and the Greek Freak are all on a different level but I think Tatum - with health, maturity and drive - has what it takes to join the pantheon of great players at the next tier. His skill could allow him to compete and overcome the truly elite if Danny can keep better talent around him. You put a KG next to him and Kemba right now and that’s good enough that it’s 2008 all over again.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#111 » by 5InOfLouisville » Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:20 pm

sam_I_am wrote:
greenroom31 wrote:Tatum is going to be one of the best players in the league and he's already on the way there.

Offensively, his step back 3 can't be defended. He's too tall and has too high of a release for pretty much anyone to bother it. That shooting sets up his drives to the basket, and he has improved mightily at getting to the rim and finishing this year. On top of that, he can stop on a dime if he sees trouble at the rim and hit a fadeaway jumper, again with the high release. When he's feeling it he is unstoppable and we're seeing him get hot and singlehandedly go on runs in quarters that demolish other teams and break their spirits.

Defensively Tatum has the length, strength and quick feet to be a problem for almost any opponent, irrespective of size or position. Really big 5s like Embiid will always be a problem for him, as will incredibly quick 1s, but just about everyone else he can defend.

On top of that he's a good rebounder with broad shoulders and his passing is improving. He's a good teammate and stays very calm. He has shown the ability to hit game winners and perform in the clutch. Not really sure what else you would want to see from him at this stage, but if I'm being super nit-picky, things he is still lacking include:

1) Better court vision and playmaking (he's showing improvement but still not super high level here)
2) More consistency on the offensive end (even though the last month he's been on fire)
3) Freak athleticism (he's a good athlete but not on the level of some other guys)

Given that he's still only 21, more time and experience will improve both #1 and #2, and while he'll never be a Giannis level athlete, he's good enough that it shouldn't hold him back.


I also would stop short of comparing him to Durant. He does a lot of the same things as KD but KD is longer, was more explosive, has a better handle, and could get his shot off much more easily.


I agree that he isn't on KD's level, but KD was never a particularly explosive athlete. Like Tatum, he is super smooth and has great handles relative to his height. KD is also like 3-4 inches taller.

So on one hand, he is a great athlete, as it pertains to body control and fluidity, but again I wouldn't describe him as particularly "explosive". I agree that the KD comparisons are a bit premature and I agree with everything else you mentioned.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#112 » by BillessuR6 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 2:57 pm

His big weakness is lower body strenght. He can`t back down anybody...if he gets stronger he will be able to score much more inside...
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#113 » by FlatearthZorro » Tue Feb 11, 2020 3:17 pm

If he can be a top 5 player, which his closest comp George has arguably been ~3 seasons in his career, I'd be pretty dang happy.
Good assessment:

PLO wrote:Tatum played OK - took advantage of a few mismatches - decent on the defensive end. He is what we thought he was going into the season - a technically very proficient player operating close to his career ceiling as a rookie.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#114 » by Gomes3PC » Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:23 pm

Wes-J wrote:
Gomes3PC wrote:
Jaqua92 wrote:Tatum isn't even close to peak Pierce.

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That's not what he said. He said Tatum today is better than Pierce at 21, and he's right.

Difference is, Pierce took like 2-3 more leaps after 21. Does Tatum have 2-3 more gears to step up into? We shall see. I tend to believe so, but not all guys just get better and better after 21 like Pierce did (see Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, etc. etc.).


Comparisons like that don't amount to a hill a of beans.

Player development is so much different now than it was 20 yrs ago plus.

Bottomline Tatum is on his way.

Comparisons like what? I'm not saying he's Tyreke Evans. CJ McCollum has been basically the same guy he was since he broke out in his third year. To be clear, I don't expect Tatum has plateaued, but let's not take it as a given he will keep improving every year. Last year alone should be proof positive of that.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#115 » by sam_I_am » Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:25 pm

5InOfLouisville wrote:
sam_I_am wrote:
greenroom31 wrote:Tatum is going to be one of the best players in the league and he's already on the way there.

Offensively, his step back 3 can't be defended. He's too tall and has too high of a release for pretty much anyone to bother it. That shooting sets up his drives to the basket, and he has improved mightily at getting to the rim and finishing this year. On top of that, he can stop on a dime if he sees trouble at the rim and hit a fadeaway jumper, again with the high release. When he's feeling it he is unstoppable and we're seeing him get hot and singlehandedly go on runs in quarters that demolish other teams and break their spirits.

Defensively Tatum has the length, strength and quick feet to be a problem for almost any opponent, irrespective of size or position. Really big 5s like Embiid will always be a problem for him, as will incredibly quick 1s, but just about everyone else he can defend.

On top of that he's a good rebounder with broad shoulders and his passing is improving. He's a good teammate and stays very calm. He has shown the ability to hit game winners and perform in the clutch. Not really sure what else you would want to see from him at this stage, but if I'm being super nit-picky, things he is still lacking include:

1) Better court vision and playmaking (he's showing improvement but still not super high level here)
2) More consistency on the offensive end (even though the last month he's been on fire)
3) Freak athleticism (he's a good athlete but not on the level of some other guys)

Given that he's still only 21, more time and experience will improve both #1 and #2, and while he'll never be a Giannis level athlete, he's good enough that it shouldn't hold him back.


I also would stop short of comparing him to Durant. He does a lot of the same things as KD but KD is longer, was more explosive, has a better handle, and could get his shot off much more easily.


I agree that he isn't on KD's level, but KD was never a particularly explosive athlete. Like Tatum, he is super smooth and has great handles relative to his height. KD is also like 3-4 inches taller.

So on one hand, he is a great athlete, as it pertains to body control and fluidity, but again I wouldn't describe him as particularly "explosive". I agree that the KD comparisons are a bit premature and I agree with everything else you mentioned.


KD was explosive even if it was more a result of skill, dribbling and length. I know what you mean in terms of leaping and strength but his super quick crossover with his 7 ft height and long arms let him blow by people and finish with dunks in a way I haven’t seen from Tatum.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#116 » by sam_I_am » Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:28 pm

Gomes3PC wrote:
Wes-J wrote:
Gomes3PC wrote:That's not what he said. He said Tatum today is better than Pierce at 21, and he's right.

Difference is, Pierce took like 2-3 more leaps after 21. Does Tatum have 2-3 more gears to step up into? We shall see. I tend to believe so, but not all guys just get better and better after 21 like Pierce did (see Tyreke Evans, OJ Mayo, etc. etc.).


Comparisons like that don't amount to a hill a of beans.

Player development is so much different now than it was 20 yrs ago plus.

Bottomline Tatum is on his way.

Comparisons like what? I'm not saying he's Tyreke Evans. CJ McCollum has been basically the same guy he was since he broke out in his third year. To be clear, I don't expect Tatum has plateaued, but let's not take it as a given he will keep improving every year. Last year alone should be proof positive of that.


This year is proof positive that he can continue to develop. His development in 2 months has been ridiculous. One huge difference between CJ McCollum and Tatum is that Tatum is clearly going to get bigger. You can see it in his shoulders.....he isn’t fully grown yet so even if his skill were to have plateaued, he is still going to get bigger and stronger probably for 2 more years. And at his position that is going to be a huge asset.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#117 » by MagicBagley18 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 4:47 pm

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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#118 » by watsonthedragon » Tue Feb 11, 2020 5:00 pm

I think people saying top 15 as a ceiling don't realize what level that is. Right now that's probably right around Jimmy Butler. If you think Tatum is only going to peak at Butler's level then you're really underselling Tatum, IMO. I think top 10 is a safe bet and top 5 is on the table. He just has the skill set to be a first-team All-NBA player. Wing with great length, all-NBA defensive potential, knock-down shooter who can get his shot whenever he wants AND, as of recently, is showing his strength in the post. He really isn't missing much at all from his game. He's basically elite at both ends of the floor already, at 21 years old. Maybe that's a bit of green glasses by me, but this post IS about his peak.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#119 » by jmr07019 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:13 pm

The way I see LeBron and Giannis are the only 2 guys in last 10-ish years who are in a class of their own. Elite offensively and defensively. Put them on your team and you are automatically a contender. KD was close but had more help than LeBron (1st Cleveland stint) and Giannis and didn't accomplish enough. Had to jump on a 70 win team who already had an MVP to get his title.

Curry revolutionized the game with his shooting. You could argue he's in the Giannis LeBron level. The best offensive player in the last 10 years but nowhere near as good as Giannis and LeBron defensively.

After that there's a ton of good players but no one else is tier 1. I don't see Tatum getting to that LeBron / Giannis level but tier 2 is in play. Playmaking is overstated when talking about ceilings. I'll take the stud defender who is a mediocre playmaker (Tatum) over the complete offensive player who sucks at defense (Harden). Having your best offensive player be an apathetic defender generally doesn't result in titles. Curry at least was passable on D.
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Re: What is Jayson Tatums ceiling? 

Post#120 » by Datruth345 » Tue Feb 11, 2020 6:17 pm

sam_I_am wrote:I appreciate your love for Paul which I admit exceeds even mine. It’s just that Pierce was 30 when he joined with KG and finally had the type of success that Tatum at age 21 has lead for 3 years in a row. His defensive impact which is hugely underrated has been enormous this year. His on/off court differential would make Pierce green with envy. Gordon, Brown and Kemba have missed games, Al and Irving are gone. The constant behind the winning over the past 3 years is Tatum and he is having a much much bigger impact in his first 3 years than an older Pierce did I his first 3 years and he is statistically superior as well.



I don't know what this is all about, I'm going to need a better explanation

This reads as 'Paul Pierce was 30 years old before experiencing the success that Jayson Tatum has provided the Celtics with the last 3 years' is that what you were actually saying?
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