What is Jayson Tatum's ceiling?

[Feed Your Head]

Possible homer statement incoming, but with his playmaking jump, i don’t think there’s much of a gap between him and Luka, long term.

[bisme37]

Possible homer statement incoming, but with his playmaking jump, i don’t think there’s much of a gap between him and Luka, long term.

He's the Luka now. It's just no one outside of us has noticed yet.

[ddb]

Possible homer statement incoming, but with his playmaking jump, i don’t think there’s much of a gap between him and Luka, long term.

yep. I'm with you. Just ask yourself this question. If Dallas called you personally and said "you have the power to make this decision for the city of Boston. I'll trade you Luka straight up for Tatum." would you? I'm honestly not sure if I would. I'd trade Brown for Luka hands down....but I'm not sure about Tatum. Probably not.

[Gomes3PC]

Possible homer statement incoming, but with his playmaking jump, i don’t think there’s much of a gap between him and Luka, long term.

He's the Luka now. It's just no one outside of us has noticed yet.

He's not the primary playmaker Luka is, and his inconsistency getting FTAs is also a glaring gap between the two.

I'd still take Luka, but Jayson is right with him among the future title-worthy alphas.

[bisme37]

Possible homer statement incoming, but with his playmaking jump, i don’t think there’s much of a gap between him and Luka, long term.

He's the Luka now. It's just no one outside of us has noticed yet.

He's not the primary playmaker Luka is, and his inconsistency getting FTAs is also a glaring gap between the two.

I'd still take Luka, but Jayson is right with him among the future title-worthy alphas.

I mean I know they're different players. I just think everyone is enamored with Luka and missing that Tatum is just as damn good.

Luka isn't the shooter or defender JT is. Or the winner JT is, to this point at least. So it goes both ways.

[sam_I_am]

Luka is a great player but I think Tatum’s length, defensive ability and chance to have a longer healthier career are important factors. I would never trade him for Luka.

[Gomes3PC]

There's not a lot of examples where your alpha on a team has an assist rate as low as Tatum's, unless they are a dominant big man like Shaq or Duncan. If a wing is your #1 guy, they typically need to be in the ~5+ APG range. Kawhi is probably the bare minimum level playmaker I can think of as a wing, and he's so far on the end of elite in all other key categories (defense, rebounding, shooting, turnover rate) that he overcomes it.

[Feed Your Head]

There's not a lot of examples where your alpha on a team has an assist rate as low as Tatum's, unless they are a dominant big man like Shaq or Duncan. If a wing is your #1 guy, they typically need to be in the ~5+ APG range. Kawhi is probably the bare minimum level playmaker I can think of as a wing, and he's so far on the end of elite in all other key categories (defense, rebounding, shooting, turnover rate) that he overcomes it.

It continues to jump every year though, and he’s still only 22. His assist rate by season has been 8/10/15/19, and his turnover rate has been 11/10/11/9, so he’s been getting better and better as a distributor, while taking care of the ball.

I don’t see any reason he won’t be a 5 assist a game guy by next season, even this season I expect him to be in the 4-4.5 range.

[zoyathedestroya]

Late last season (and in the playoffs) was the first time Tatum had to spread his wings and try out this new role as primary playmaker for the team. Previous to that, we had Kyrie, Horford, Hayward (kinda), then Kemba ahead of him. I think even when Kemba comes back, Cs will rely on Tatum as the focal point of the offense with Kemba and/or Brown as the secondary option. He's also carrying the offense for the bench groups since last season.

I hate comparing him to an inferior player (JK) but in Durant's 3rd season, he had an assist rate of 13.5% and turnover rate of 11.7% at 32.0% usage. Tatum was at 14.5% assist rate and 10.2% turnover rate at 28.6% usage. KD's assist rate jumped in the 20s only in his 6th season while already having a usage rate of 28+ since he was drafted.

Numbers aside, we've already seen the improvement in Tatum's decision-making with the ball. He also doesn't seem to be a ballhog like some other stars of the past. Assist rate also doesn't show the complete picture since it doesn't take into consideration hockey assists or just the team converting with him initiating the offense and opening up scoring opportunities for his teammates.

EDIT: More concerning is his inconsistency with getting to the line and/or powering his shot through contact (Jaylen has gotten good at this).

[Gomes3PC]

There's not a lot of examples where your alpha on a team has an assist rate as low as Tatum's, unless they are a dominant big man like Shaq or Duncan. If a wing is your #1 guy, they typically need to be in the ~5+ APG range. Kawhi is probably the bare minimum level playmaker I can think of as a wing, and he's so far on the end of elite in all other key categories (defense, rebounding, shooting, turnover rate) that he overcomes it.

It continues to jump every year though, and he’s still only 22. His assist rate by season has been 8/10/15/19, and his turnover rate has been 11/10/11/9, so he’s been getting better and better as a distributor, while taking care of the ball.

I don’t see any reason he won’t be a 5 assist a game guy by next season, even this season I expect him to be in the 4-4.5 range.

Haha well, he is 23 going on 24 now, but in general I totally agree - and Jaylen has been on a generally similar trajectory (with one brief dip in there). Two years ago, it was a major concern for me that he didn't have enough natural vision to be a primary initiator. Now, I think the path is there, and the key from here is whether or not he continues to tighten his handle and whether or not we are willing to live with taking some regular season lumps and letting him run the offense vs. handing it to a better natural passer like Kemba.

The optimism I have around this team is that, despite some of the mishaps with FA signings and other picks and the like, our two best young players have gotten better basically every year, and continue to show flashes of being even better than they are right now. Are they enough to win a title with? With a bit more honing and a bit better cast around them, I think so, but part of that will also come down to coaching, health, mental toughness, and luck.

[Feed Your Head]

There's not a lot of examples where your alpha on a team has an assist rate as low as Tatum's, unless they are a dominant big man like Shaq or Duncan. If a wing is your #1 guy, they typically need to be in the ~5+ APG range. Kawhi is probably the bare minimum level playmaker I can think of as a wing, and he's so far on the end of elite in all other key categories (defense, rebounding, shooting, turnover rate) that he overcomes it.

It continues to jump every year though, and he’s still only 22. His assist rate by season has been 8/10/15/19, and his turnover rate has been 11/10/11/9, so he’s been getting better and better as a distributor, while taking care of the ball.

I don’t see any reason he won’t be a 5 assist a game guy by next season, even this season I expect him to be in the 4-4.5 range.

Haha well, he is 23 going on 24 now, but in general I totally agree - and Jaylen has been on a generally similar trajectory (with one brief dip in there). Two years ago, it was a major concern for me that he didn't have enough natural vision to be a primary initiator. Now, I think the path is there, and the key from here is whether or not he continues to tighten his handle and whether or not we are willing to live with taking some regular season lumps and letting him run the offense vs. handing it to a better natural passer like Kemba.

The optimism I have around this team is that, despite some of the mishaps with FA signings and other picks and the like, our two best young players have gotten better basically every year, and continue to show flashes of being even better than they are right now. Are they enough to win a title with? With a bit more honing and a bit better cast around them, I think so, but part of that will also come down to coaching, health, mental toughness, and luck.

The rest of your post I agree with, but Tatum doesn’t turn 24 until March of 2022.

[zoyathedestroya]

You're both wrong. Tatum already admitted in preseason he's only 19. Don't let the grown beard fool you.

[djFan71]

You're both wrong. Tatum already admitted in preseason he's only 19. Don't let the grown beard fool you.

I'm thinking even this joke has already turned 20.

As much as we love her, Anna bringing it to the wider world and Tatum using it was the peak of the 19 yo thing, imo.
He's good enough now he doesn't need the qualification on any stats.

Spoiler:

Sorry, ZtD, this is for everyone, not just you.
Not that I get to decide when a joke is past it's expiration.

Wait..... maybe I do! It may be a special mod power.

I gotta find that manual somewhere.

Also, while we're here, I keep hearing Hayward left, but I see him out there every game with #27 on.

[Gomes3PC]

You're right! I was looking at Jaylens BBRef page by accident!

[Feed Your Head]

You're right! I was looking at Jaylens BBRef page by accident!

It’s pretty crazy that Jaylen is a year and a half older than Tatum, and he is young as hell himself.

[ddb]

There's not a lot of examples where your alpha on a team has an assist rate as low as Tatum's, unless they are a dominant big man like Shaq or Duncan. If a wing is your #1 guy, they typically need to be in the ~5+ APG range. Kawhi is probably the bare minimum level playmaker I can think of as a wing, and he's so far on the end of elite in all other key categories (defense, rebounding, shooting, turnover rate) that he overcomes it.

I get your point but to Tatum's defense he hasn't been asked by the coaching staff to be that guy until this season. So let's see where he's at as an assist rate guy at the end of next season before making any sort of judgement. To me, it's clear as day that Tatum has gotten much, much better in this department with room to become very good there.

Season 1 as a rookie he had none of that responsibility. Season two he didn't either. Last year he had Kemba/Hayward and just starting having a little responsibility there. In the bubble he was fantastic facilitating, and so far this year he seems to be doing pretty well handing it.

Plain and simple. Tatum is an absolute STUD.

Lastly, stats are stats. I put some stock in statistics, but at the end of the day his teammates need to make shots in order for that stat to register. My eyes are telling me from watching the games that Tatum is drawing a ton of attention and that he's handling well.

[24istheLAW]

There's not a lot of examples where your alpha on a team has an assist rate as low as Tatum's, unless they are a dominant big man like Shaq or Duncan. If a wing is your #1 guy, they typically need to be in the ~5+ APG range. Kawhi is probably the bare minimum level playmaker I can think of as a wing, and he's so far on the end of elite in all other key categories (defense, rebounding, shooting, turnover rate) that he overcomes it.

I'd say that for Jayson, there's milestones towards being an improved playmaker. 1) Simple passes out of post-ups 2) Passing out of double-teams to punish teams for overhelping on him 3) Passing out of drives. The alpha/MVP players who accumulate 5+ APG and get to the line frequently, do so by being capable of all three.


I think Jayson came into the league with the first skill, and it's just less obvious because he doesn't get deeper post-up touches as much. I think he's largely conquered that second step, of making defenses pay for the attention they give him when he catches the ball.

The third step is the one he needs to take to elevate himself to that rarefied air. And doing so takes a combo of improving his understanding of the game (seeing the opportunities to kick it out) and his technical ability on drives (handle and finishing ability to create drive opportunities, and to also be able to pick up the ball and execute the pass).

[BostonCouchGM]

Possible homer statement incoming, but with his playmaking jump, i don’t think there’s much of a gap between him and Luka, long term.

I happen to love guys who stat pad, shoot 32% from three, turnover prone and are among the worst defenders in the entire league so Tatum could never catch Doncic

[Floody100]

God it’s frustrating watching him drive to the rim. Instead of drawing a foul he either does that stupid floater or dribbles it back out to the 3 point line & Miami get set again defensively.
Someone tell him to either draw the foul or if he’s going to do a floater make it a damn bank shot for god sake.

[Ill News]

God it’s frustrating watching him drive to the rim. Instead of drawing a foul he either does that stupid floater or dribbles it back out to the 3 point line & Miami get set again defensively.
Someone tell him to either draw the foul or if he’s going to do a floater make it a damn bank shot for god sake.

Well, when he drives to the rim, the refs rarely give him a call. I think that's on the refs most of the time, they still aren't giving him the benefit of superstar calls that players like Harden, LeBron, KD, etc. receive at the slightest contact. H

Someone suggested this in the game thread, but Tatum probably needs to learn how to sell contact more, or even flop around just so he could get to the free-throw line. Getting free throws is all that's missing in his game, otherwise he'd be averaging 30+ a game.