Post#1027 » by bucknersrevenge » Mon Jan 11, 2016 9:02 pm
Chad Ford's new Big Board FWIW. Someone mentioned Deyonta Davis recently and he is starting to really gain notice. Wouldn't surprise me if he shoots up to lotto territory by the time the draft comes around, especially if Skal decides to come back for his sophomore season.
1. Ben Simmons
Previous rank: No. 1
LSU
Freshman
Forward
Simmons continues to wow scouts. You just don't find 6-foot-10, 240-pound, athletic players with his feel for the game. He has also started to get more aggressive offensively, which has reassured some scouts who were worried he has been a little too unselfish.
Simmons currently leads all freshmen in the country in PPG and RPG and ranks second in APG. But it's not just the freshman class he's dominating. He currently leads all college players in PER and ranks third in the country in RPG.
His jumper? Well, he's still not showing much there, but he has been so effective at getting to the basket, he really hasn't needed it.
Watch: Ben Simmons highlights Video
2. Brandon Ingram
Previous rank: No. 2
Duke
Freshman
Forward
Since Ingram bounced back from a slow start and exploded for 24 points against Indiana, he has been one of the two or three best players in the country. In that nine-game stretch, Ingram has averaged 20.6 PPG, 8 RPG, 2.1 BPG and 1.9 SPG and shot a red-hot 47 percent from 3-point country. While he clearly needs to add strength, scouts have been impressed with his toughness.
Simmons is the clear No. 1 right now, but I've had a handful of NBA execs suggest to me that he isn't the only top-shelf prize of this draft.
"In a normal draft year, Ingram would be a terrific No. 1 pick," one NBA GM said. "If we win the lottery, I think we'd take Simmons. But we'd seriously consider Ingram. He could be a monster on both ends of the floor in time."
Watch: Brandon Ingram highlights Video
3. Dragan Bender
Previous rank: No. 3
Croatia
Age: 18
Forward/center
After averaging just 3.6 PPG in 11 MPG for Maccabi Tel Aviv in his first nine games, Bender has seen his role expand in the Israeli league lately. In his subsequent three games he spiked to 13.7 PPG and shot 7-for-13 from beyond the arc. For the season Bender is shooting nearly 52 percent from 3, an important number for scouts who came into the season wondering how he'd fare on the perimeter.
His poor rebounding numbers, however, remain a cause for concern.
He still hasn't seen major action in the Euroleague yet, but his increased opportunity with Maccabi is a welcome sight among scouts.
4. Henry Ellenson
Previous rank: No. 6
Marquette
Freshman
Forward/center
Last month I wrote that Ellenson was a hot month away from surpassing Jaylen Brown and Skal Labissiere on our board. I wouldn't say he lit it up over the past month, but his more-than-solid play as a freshman -- combined with major struggles by Brown and Labissiere -- has pushed him past both.
His shaky 3-point shooting (just 26 percent from deep) is a source of concern, but he's stroking the ball from everywhere else on the floor.
"Every time I see him I can't help but see some Kevin Love there," one NBA GM said. "He's probably a better shooter at this stage and I think he's a more willing passer."
With teams emphasizing bigs who can stretch the floor and still protect the rim, he should be very popular on draft night.
Watch: Henry Ellenson highlights Video
5. Kris Dunn
Previous rank: No. 9
Providence
Junior
Guard
Dunn has been one of the three or four best players in the country. His speed with the ball, creative ball handling, passing skills and willingness to rebound are all major pluses. And after a slow start shooting from deep, Dunn is 11-for-17 from 3 in his past four games.
His age (he turns 22 in March) and questions about his long-term shooting promise (his 65 percent free throw shooting is telling) give scouts pause. But with the possible exception of Buddy Hield, there hasn't been a more dynamic guard in the country this season.
6. Jaylen Brown
Previous rank: No. 5
Cal
Freshman
Forward
After a so-so start Brown has played better lately, averaging 15.6 PPG and 8 RPG, but he's ranked this high primarily because of his elite athleticism and strength for a player his size. His lack of a consistent 3-point shot (26 percent from deep) and incessant turnovers (averaging four TOs a game over his past six games) are worrisome.
To stay this high on the board, he needs to play under more control and hit his 3s.
7. Jakob Poeltl
Previous rank: No. 7
Utah
Sophomore
Center
Poeltl continues to look like the only pure center in the lottery. He has nine double-doubles this season and dominates in the paint, where he takes a whopping 85 percent of his shots and converts at a terrific 70 percent rate.
He's not particularly sexy as a prospect -- scouts continue to see some Omer Asik in him -- but in this draft, that's what you may have to settle for outside the top five.
8. Jamal Murray
Previous rank: No. 8
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
Where would Kentucky be without Murray right now? While the rest of its elite recruiting class has struggled, Murray has been the Wildcats' go-to scorer. Murray's ability to create his own shot, his deep range and his terrific feel all make him a great prospect.
However, scouts are beginning to wonder about his ability to play the point in the NBA. When Tyler Ulis is out and Murray is running the offense, he doesn't look as comfortable as some hoped. That could give teams pause before taking him in the top 10.
At 6-foot-5, he has great size if he's a point guard. But if he's a 2-guard in the NBA, he's average in size and that could be an issue without elite athleticism.
Watch: Jamal Murray highlights Video
9. Furkan Korkmaz
Previous rank: No. 10
Turkey
Age: 18
Forward
Korkmaz has moved into the starting lineup for Efes the past four games and is finally seeing a larger role for the team. In his last game in the Top 16, he scored seven points in 16 minutes. He's shooting 41 percent from 3 this season, and that's where the primary interest comes among scouts.
Talented 2-guards are hard to come by right now, especially those with the size and shooting ability of Korkmaz. Korkmaz may not be a star yet, but the role he plays on a Euroleague team is impressive for his age.
10. Skal Labissiere
Previous rank: No. 4
Kentucky
Freshman
Center/forward
It has been another horrific month for the big man who was originally ranked No. 2 here. He has totally lost confidence in his game and rarely has an impact at either end. In Kentucky's last game against Alabama, he played just four minutes and collected zero points and three fouls.
Labissiere's slide from the No. 2 spot isn't unprecedented. We had Andre Drummond ranked No. 2 in the 2011-12 preseason, right behind Anthony Davis. His lethargic play at UConn caused him to slide all the way to No. 9 on draft night. However, four years later, he's a dominant NBA center. That's why scouts preach patience.
I spoke with NBA scouts and execs from over half the league about Labissiere. Some teams have him as high as No. 6 or No. 7 on their boards, while the others have him lower.
All of them are hoping he returns to Kentucky for another year to work on his strength and toughness. But if he does declare? His perimeter skills -- which teams really haven't seen at Kentucky -- and his upside will be the lures.
11. Wade Baldwin IV
Previous rank: No. 18
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Guard
Teams are looking for top point guard prospects, and most teams now have Baldwin second at the position.
The analytics crowd loves him, he has terrific size and strength for his position, and he can really shoot the basketball. But his turnovers can be a problem and his team is really struggling right now after being projected by many to be a potential Final Four team. That never looks good when you are a point guard.
12. Ivan Rabb
Previous rank: No. 11
Cal
Freshman
Forward/center
A year ago Rabb was ahead of Labissiere on most recruiting boards, only to see the Kentucky prospect pass him after a terrific spring. Now Rabb, who some believed lacked the physicality to be a one-and-done prospect, could end up ahead of Labissiere.
Rabb has not only been a solid low-post threat (he shoots 80 percent at the rim) and rebounder for Cal, he also has shown the ability to step out and shoot. He's hitting 46 percent of his jumpers, about 20 percent higher than teammate Jaylen Brown.
13. Diamond Stone
Previous rank: No. 21
Maryland
Freshman
Center
Stone has found a real niche coming off the bench for Maryland and has quietly put up terrific numbers for the Terrapins, including a crazy 39-point performance against Penn State. He's not a particularly stunning athlete, but his ability to score in the paint makes him an intriguing prospect.
Scouts are really starting to warm up to him. He could end up being the next center off the board after Poeltl.
14. Buddy Hield
Previous rank: No. 29
Oklahoma
Senior
Guard
It's tough to know where exactly to place Hield. He arguably has been the best player in college basketball, especially offensively, averaging 26.6 PPG and shooting 52 percent from 3-point range.
Scouts complained for years about Hield's poor shot selection at Oklahoma, and he still takes lots of wild shots. The difference is that now they're going in. The 46 points he dropped on Kansas might be the best individual performance of the season.
But there are concerns. His age, lack of size for his position and tendency to get careless with the ball all worry scouts.
Everyone loves his heart, scoring ability and confidence, but how much of his success will really translate in the pros? Scouts are having huge debates about that right now.
15. Timothe Luwawu
Previous rank: No. 15
France
Age: 20
Guard/forward
Luwawu continues to impress for Mega Vizura in the Adriatic League. In his last game against Zadar, he dropped 29 points, grabbed 9 rebounds and made 5 assists. His combination of athleticism and size is attractive.
The Adriatic League isn't as difficult as the ACB or Euroleague, but his strong performance has been impressive for a player his age.
16. Caris LeVert
Previous rank: No. 14
Michigan
Senior
Guard/forward
LeVert had been terrific for Michigan before a lower left leg injury kept him out of the past two games. He has been shooting the ball with range, showing terrific court vision and versatility. And despite being a senior, he's only 21 years old.
17. Deyonta Davis
Previous rank: N/A
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
The early attention at Michigan State has rightfully been focused on Denzel Valentine, but a number of scouts have walked away from Spartans games saying Valentine isn't the best pro prospect on the team.
There aren't a lot of elite shot-blockers in this draft and Davis has been a menace in the paint. Factor in his terrific athleticism and the ability to step out and hit from midrange (he's shooting 51 percent on his 2-point shots this season) and Davis has been quietly rising on draft boards all season.
He needs to get stronger, but he has become a legitimate sleeper in the draft.
18. Demetrius Jackson
Previous rank: No. 12
Notre Dame
Junior
Guard
Jackson is having a very solid junior season for Notre Dame. His combination of strength, shooting ability and defensive toughness is coveted in the NBA.
But it does seem as if his stock has cooled a bit in the past few weeks among scouts, despite a few strong performances against Pitt and Boston College.
19. Thomas Bryant
Previous rank: No. 16
Indiana
Freshman
Center
Bryant continues to do what he does: score around the basket at a high percentage and play hard. He's a bit slow-footed and neither an elite rebounder nor a shot-blocker.
However, he does have a jump shot that could allow him to be an inside-outside threat in the pros. Like so many other players on this list, he's not ready. But teams love upside.
20. Jonathan Jeanne
Previous rank: No. 17
France
Age: 18
Center/forward
Jeanne is a draft-and-stash pick as a huge, skilled forward who lacks the strength or game experience to make an impact right away.
His future looks brighter if he stays in France a few more years and eats lots and lots of cheese. But if he were to declare for the draft, I'm told he'd likely go somewhere in the mid-first round.
21. Gary Payton II
Previous rank: N/A
Oregon State
Senior
Guard
My man Kevin Pelton has been leading Payton's bandwagon since last year. This year, Payton is ranked in Pelton's top-five projected WARP. Finally, scouts are also starting to see the light.
Payton's defensive abilities, much like his father's, are his calling card. But his passing has improved and his rebounding is elite for a guard. He's not a shooter, and he's already 23, but it's starting to look like he might be a first-rounder.
22. Taurean Prince
Previous rank: N/A
Baylor
Senior
Forward
By most accounts, Prince isn't having quite as strong a season as he did as a junior. However, that hasn't stopped scouts from continuing to like what he brings to the table.
Athletic wings who can shoot and lock down players on the perimeter come at a premium.
23. Grayson Allen
Previous rank: No. 22
Duke
Sophomore
Guard
Allen continues to be a dominant scorer for Duke and a lights-out shooter from 3. He has had two bad games this season, and his last one against Utah came when he played with the flu.
His lack of size seems to be the biggest issue holding him back. But if Buddy Hield can keep climbing, I'm not sure why Allen, who's the same size, can't do the same.
24. Zhou Qi
Previous rank: No. 24
China
Age: 19
Center
Zhou is still having a terrific season in China, averaging 17.4 PPG, 9.8 RPG and 3.6 BPG while shooting 67 percent from the floor for Xinjiang. He's also shooting 6-for-10 from 3. Strength continues to be the major issue for him.
25. Denzel Valentine
Previous rank: No. 23
Michigan State
Senior
Forward/guard
Valentine has missed the past four games after suffering a minor knee injury against Northeastern. Before the injury he was widely considered a front-runner for player of the year honors and was moving up in the draft.
He keeps his place here late in the first round until scouts can see how well he bounces back from the setback.
26. Tyler Dorsey
Previous rank: N/A
Oregon
Freshman
Guard
Dorsey cracked our second Big Board after a strong performance for Greece at the under-19 championships. He fell out of Big Board 3.0, but is back after continuing to show so much promise at Oregon.
Not only has he been shooting the ball well (49 percent from 3), but a number of scouts believe he has the ability to play point guard in the NBA someday.
27. Malik Newman
Previous rank: No. 26
Mississippi State
Freshman
Guard
Newman got off to a rocky start, but he has started hitting his shots from deep and has been much steadier. He still doesn't look much like a point guard, but as they are with so many other players on this list, scouts are calling for patience.
28. Cheick Diallo
Previous rank: No. 13
Kansas
Freshman
Forward/center
Diallo has been horrible for Kansas in the early going, and unlike with Labissiere, scouts can't point to a skill that would be unleashed in a different system.
Diallo's strength has always been that he works hard and plays defense. But he is a below-average offensive player and that has really shown early for Kansas.
Scouts are still very intrigued, but everyone I spoke with felt he needed at least one more full year of college ball.
29. Marquese Chriss
Previous rank: N/A
Washington
Freshman
Forward
Chriss is a total upside play. There just aren't many 6-foot-9 players with his athleticism and skill.
When he can stay out of foul trouble, and stay focused, there really isn't anything he can't do. He can shoot it, rebound and even handle the ball a little. But right now, he's wildly inconsistent.
30. Domantas Sabonis
Previous rank: No. 27
Gonzaga
Sophomore
Forward
Sabonis has been super productive for Gonzaga. But his lack of elite athleticism and shooting ability has hurt his stock.
Still, he's such a great rebounder with such a high basketball IQ that he'll be tough to pass on in the late first round.
