Official Celtics 2022 Off-Season Thread

[MagicBagley18]

So apparently team advanced analytics aren’t that far off from the ones available to the public. Nba teams just have much more detailed tracking than what we get.

Just figured I’d pass it along.

Thanks man. I’ve been losing sleep over this

[Feed Your Head]

So apparently team advanced analytics aren’t that far off from the ones available to the public. Nba teams just have much more detailed tracking than what we get.

Just figured I’d pass it along.

Thanks man. I’ve been losing sleep over this

Your patio is the real reason you’ve been losing sleep.

[steefP2]

Couple of fun stats.

Celtics 18th offense overall but only 1.6 points per 100 possessions out of 10th so not so dire.

Furthermore Celtics are the only team below average in overall offensive rating to have a half court offense better than 12th. (clippers jump from 26th overall to 12th in half court and Dallas jumps from 15th to 5th in half court settings). Should prove promising for our play-off offense.

Our core 4 (with anyone else at the 5th spot) over 1150 possessions has an insane net rating 21, with a very good offense and the most insane defense. All 4 of those guys are young and locked in for a few more years at least. Still need more games to include White in there but the early numbers, while essentially meaningless, are insane.

I don't know if there's real title upside with these 4 but this season has at least proven that to be plausible, whereas before I would've scoffed.

[MagicBagley18]

So apparently team advanced analytics aren’t that far off from the ones available to the public. Nba teams just have much more detailed tracking than what we get.

Just figured I’d pass it along.

Thanks man. I’ve been losing sleep over this

Your patio is the real reason you’ve been losing sleep.

Oooof you are right.....I should have zagged

[Feed Your Head]

Thanks man. I’ve been losing sleep over this

Your patio is the real reason you’ve been losing sleep.

Oooof you are right.....I should have zagged

I ******* KNEW IT.

[Fencer reregistered]

CBS Sportsine power rankings: 6th overall, 3rd in the East.

Not a lot of analysis in the blurbs, however.

https://www.cbssports.com/nba/news/nba-power-rankings-demar-derozans-historic-streak-powers-bulls-celtics-mavs-rising-as-all-star-break-nears/

[GoCeltics123]

Watch on YouTube

[Jaqua92]

Watch on YouTube

Tatum is really well spoken.

He speaks like an adult.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[GoCeltics123]

Watch on YouTube

;ab_channel=JJRedick

Full pod

[Saint Lazarus]

Watch on YouTube

Tatum speaking in code. Wants to trade Brown for Beal

[greenroom31]

Watch on YouTube

Tatum is really well spoken.

He speaks like an adult.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

The frustrating part of that clip is around the 1 minute mark when he talks about how impressed he was by Terry Rozier. He says "Terry is ridiculous... [the Celtics] should let him do more".

If Tatum immediately sees it you'd like to think others within the Celtics org could connect the dots. Instead, we proceeded to play him 23 mpg the next season and then trade him for Kemba.

[canman1971]

Watch on YouTube

Tatum is really well spoken.

He speaks like an adult.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

He is an adult

[bisme37]

Zach Lowe's 10 NBA things: The Celtics' incredible surge

1. The Boston Celtics are, finally, who we thought they were

The most interesting thing in NBA defense over the last 20 games has been Ime Udoka's semi-radical decision to slot his shot-devouring center -- Robert Williams III, Lord of Time -- on wings away from the ball. The next-biggest Celtic -- Al Horford in Boston's starting five, sometimes Grant Williams, Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown in smaller looks -- takes the other team's main screen-setter, and switches everything.

The idea is to build a forcefield around the paint by switching up top, with Robert Williams looming along the baseline ready to pounce. A happy side effect is sewing confusion in offenses: Wait, where's Time Lord? Oh, there. So who's guarding our main screener? Are they just going to switch? Should we run our normal stuff anyway? Or divert our offense to attack Williams? But that would mean using a less dangerous screener, and Williams is really good at switching too! Oh, crap, there's 5 on the shot clock and Marcus Smart is six inches from my face.

Boston is about to overtake the Golden State Warriors for No. 1 in defensive efficiency. Their starting five has allowed a bonkers 88.8 points per 100 possessions -- easily the stingiest mark among lineups that have logged 100-plus minutes. Luck has helped; opponents have hit 29% on 3s against that group, and 34% against Boston overall. During Boston's current 9-1 stretch, opponents have shot 32% on midrangers. For the season, no team's opponents have underperformed their expected effective field goal percentage by a larger margin than Boston's, per Second Spectrum.

But Boston is driving this. Only the Warriors allow fewer shots at the rim. The Celtics have kicked their fouling habit. They are long and tenacious -- neck-and-neck with the weirdo Toronto Raptors as the best at unnerving shooters with flying closeouts. Opponents have made just 51% of shots at the rim with Williams nearby -- eighth lowest among 100-plus rotation guys who challenge at least three such shots per game. (One of the seven players above Williams is new Celtic Derrick White, who by most advanced metrics ranks among the league's 20 best defenders.)

Smaller groups with Time Lord as the only traditional big have been impenetrable; Boston's potential new closing lineup -- Smart, White, Brown, Tatum, Robert Williams -- might be a problem.

Opponents will concoct ways to attack Boston's unconventional scheme. (Brian Scalabrine and I brainstormed some on the Lowe Post podcast.) Boston will adjust.

In preseason, I labeled Boston a lock for a top-six spot -- with a chance at seizing No. 3. (Remember when everyone assumed Milwaukee and Brooklyn would go 1-2? Whoops.) That looked foolish for 30 games, but the optimism was about this defense.

The Celtics now have the East's best point differential. They are a threat to beat any conference rival in the playoffs, though a long shot against the Bucks. How the seeding shakes out will be pivotal.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/insider/story/_/id/33314354/zach-lowe-10-nba-things-celtics-incredible-surge-elite-acting-two-kentucky-wildcats-quiet-kyrie-irving-development

[jmr07019]

Between the start of the season and Nov 30th the Celtics had an offensive rating of 106.0 good for 23rd best in the league.

Since December 1st the Celtics have an offensive rating of 112.7 good for 12th best in the league over this date range.

Since January 1st the Celtics have an offensive rating of 113.5 good for 10th best in the league over this date range.

Since February 1st the Celtics have an offensive rating if 116.1 good for 11st best in the league over this date range.

For the season the Celtics have an offensive rating of 110.3 good for 18th best in the league.

Top offenses in the league over the entire season and their rating

Utah - 115.9
Atlanta - 113.9
Phoenix - 113.5
Chicago - 113.4
Memphis - 113.1
Milwaukee - 112.5
Denver - 111.9
Miami - 111.9
Minnesota - 111.5
Toronto - 111.5

I am not sure what happened between November and December but it is a pretty sizeable increase in offensive rating. We played 21 games before December 1st and 39 after so it is not a small sample.

Just how good if our offense? Certainly we are better than 18th best and probably around 10th best. However if we really are around 6th - 8th best offense we have a chance to make some serious noise in the playoffs as our defense is top 3 at worst.

[steefP2]

Between the start of the season and Nov 30th the Celtics had an offensive rating of 106.0 good for 23rd best in the league.

Since December 1st the Celtics have an offensive rating of 112.7 good for 12th best in the league over this date range.

Since January 1st the Celtics have an offensive rating of 113.5 good for 10th best in the league over this date range.

Since February 1st the Celtics have an offensive rating if 116.1 good for 11st best in the league over this date range.

For the season the Celtics have an offensive rating of 110.3 good for 18th best in the league.

Top offenses in the league over the entire season and their rating

Utah - 115.9
Atlanta - 113.9
Phoenix - 113.5
Chicago - 113.4
Memphis - 113.1
Milwaukee - 112.5
Denver - 111.9
Miami - 111.9
Minnesota - 111.5
Toronto - 111.5

I am not sure what happened between November and December but it is a pretty sizeable increase in offensive rating. We played 21 games before December 1st and 39 after so it is not a small sample.

Just how good if our offense? Certainly we are better than 18th best and probably around 10th best. However if we really are around 6th - 8th best offense we have a chance to make some serious noise in the playoffs as our defense is top 3 at worst.

If you really wanna calibrate this somewhat accurately, you need to check shooting luck and location based efg% to account for smaller sample sizes. I’ll do some digging when I have more time but I’d expect to find somewhere around 9-12 range

[Andrew McCeltic]

So apparently team advanced analytics aren’t that far off from the ones available to the public. Nba teams just have much more detailed tracking than what we get.

Just figured I’d pass it along.

Where do you get your numbers? I just know basketball reference, NBA.com has a little.. LEBRON is nylon calculus, right?

[ryan in Maine]

Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown are not finished products.

Can we bust that myth?

[steefP2]

My mini rant for the day.
Karalis was pushing back on Tatum defending his shot selection, saying he’s just not a good midrange shooter…

Tatum has shot 43% from 16-3p line, Aka long 2’s.
They are 0.111 part of his total shot selection
Let’s say he plays 79 games
That’s approximately 180 long 2’s since he takes a bit over 20 fg a game
He’s hit 77 out of those 180 (43%)
If he hits 1 more EVERY 5 games, he’d be up to 51 % aka Durant level aka better than demar from long 2


Conclusion: recognize that small samples are prone to dramatic shifts and if you build your argument on them you are standing on shaky af ground.

[steefP2]

So apparently team advanced analytics aren’t that far off from the ones available to the public. Nba teams just have much more detailed tracking than what we get.

Just figured I’d pass it along.

Where do you get your numbers? I just know basketball reference, NBA.com has a little.. LEBRON is nylon calculus, right?

Lebron is BBall Index.
Darko is shinyapp
EPM is dunksandthrees
raptor is 538
cleaning the glass is great for a lot of things.

[steefP2]

Between the start of the season and Nov 30th the Celtics had an offensive rating of 106.0 good for 23rd best in the league.

Since December 1st the Celtics have an offensive rating of 112.7 good for 12th best in the league over this date range.

Since January 1st the Celtics have an offensive rating of 113.5 good for 10th best in the league over this date range.

Since February 1st the Celtics have an offensive rating if 116.1 good for 11st best in the league over this date range.

For the season the Celtics have an offensive rating of 110.3 good for 18th best in the league.

Top offenses in the league over the entire season and their rating

Utah - 115.9
Atlanta - 113.9
Phoenix - 113.5
Chicago - 113.4
Memphis - 113.1
Milwaukee - 112.5
Denver - 111.9
Miami - 111.9
Minnesota - 111.5
Toronto - 111.5

I am not sure what happened between November and December but it is a pretty sizeable increase in offensive rating. We played 21 games before December 1st and 39 after so it is not a small sample.

Just how good if our offense? Certainly we are better than 18th best and probably around 10th best. However if we really are around 6th - 8th best offense we have a chance to make some serious noise in the playoffs as our defense is top 3 at worst.

If you really wanna calibrate this somewhat accurately, you need to check shooting luck and location based efg% to account for smaller sample sizes. I’ll do some digging when I have more time but I’d expect to find somewhere around 9-12 range

So after looking into this a bit, the biggest difference has not been our shot quality as it were. Led by Tatum, we've just finished a ton better at the rim. Even from the start of the season we've been a good finishing team and while our 3 point % has increased somewhat, its mostly due to taking our finishing from good to great in the last 20-30 games. Even so our offense hasn't dramatically improved with this better shooting. We're passing a lot better and pace/movement is up but as we adjust to that, our turnovers have skyrocketed. That's mostly what's been keeping the offense down lately. The shooting woes have largely been resolved but we're just giving the ball away too much.

So if we can clean that up, we'll probably hover around top 10 ish offense for the rest of the way.

Our half court offense is already around 10th though so there's some decent play off upside there. We're just not running enough or efficiently atm to juice the overall numbers in the reg season.