2025 NBA Draft Thread, part 1 – Capture the Flagg

[165bows]

Bennett Stirtz has the best composite score on Bart Torvik's college database.

Thomas Haugh has the 5th best ORtg.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=5&year=2025&minmin=55&start=20241101&end=20250501

[phincsfan]

Bogo Markovic declares for the draft.
https://meridiansport.rs/kosarka/vreme-za-novog-dijamanta-bogoljub-markovic-izlazi-na-nba-draft/

Honestly, this guy looks like he could rise in the predraft process. But not too far because he's too risky a type. I think teams feel like he's reminding them of aleksej pokusevski, which is something I kinda like because it will put a lid on Markovic's draft stock.

When a player is really hitting in the NBA then a comp-lite player will go too high in the next draft because GMs are chasing the hottest thing. Remember after D Wade drove the Heat to the 2006 championship, alot of front offices were looking for the "next Dwyane Wade" and all of a sudden Randy Foye is a top 7 pick because he reminds teams of Wade.

The opposite is also true. If the most recent comp for a player was a big bust, like Poku, then the next iteration, in this case Markovic, gets unfairly penalized because GM's don't want pick a player that looks like a bust, because that's too risky for the GM.

So, in short, i think Markovic could be pretty interesting, has a chance to rise because of size/shooting but won't rise too high because of Poku. I am intrigued, let's just say.

Funny you mentioned him


Post#122 » by phincsfan » Tue Oct 29, 2024 9:33 am
I saw his name on a mock. Gonna add his name to my list.

Sallis
Wolf
Fland
Markovic (not as a draft and stash though)

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[phincsfan]

Jazz with a HUGE win !!!

Wiz got the Bulls and Heat who are still trying to win games.

Jazz may get an OKC team who wants to rest everybody and a Wolves team who may rest everybody

[Dogen]

After seeing Walsh and Davison go 0-9 with some extended minutes last night, I'm leaning back on the hedge to draft players that aren't just showing "potential" to shoot. There will be scorers available. Mazzulla ball means if you can't shoot, you get hunted.

Norris' 3pt shot looks better than Walsh atm. I hope we see him a bit more in the final games.

[winsomme2]

Bennett Stirtz has the best composite score on Bart Torvik's college database.

Thomas Haugh has the 5th best ORtg.

https://barttorvik.com/playerstat.php?link=y&sIndex=5&year=2025&minmin=55&start=20241101&end=20250501

I know Bennet Stirtz followed his coach to Iowa, but does that mean he won't test the draft waters?

Both these guys look like good fits for the Cs if available. Both are good shooters and passers and like to attack the basket.

[playa-hater]

Forward JT Toppin announces he will forgo the NBA draft and return to Texas Tech for more money. Bummer, he was one of my guys. They say he got $4 mil to return

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/jt-toppin-spurns-nba-draft-will-return-to-texas-tech-for-purported-4-million-in-nil-earnings-next-year/

wait.. what!!!!! I had no idea the NIL paid that well.

[playa-hater]

For the record, I want to double down on my desire to not draft any more young projects. Not saying I want seniors. But I want more proven players with a better floor than a Ceiling that they may never get close to. No more 19 year old players at skilled positions that are considered "projects". There are exceptions for every rule, but that is my rule. Big men may be more the exception, however.

Not a fan of draft and stash either.

Last but definitely not least. I could care less about a player's wingspan. So overrated. Focus instead on things like "feel for the game", decision making and SHOOTING abilities. Too many shooting projects do not translate to success not just because of poor mechanics (*which can be changed but is hard) but rather shooting mentality. Give me shooters who have been gunning since HS vs these young HS/AAU standouts that relied on their athletic superiority.

Again, there are exceptions to these rules.

[165bows]

Sion James as a 5th year senior is 22 and a half on draft night roughly the same age as juniors Alex Karaban and Darrion Williams.

[redslastlaugh]

Forward JT Toppin announces he will forgo the NBA draft and return to Texas Tech for more money. Bummer, he was one of my guys. They say he got $4 mil to return

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/jt-toppin-spurns-nba-draft-will-return-to-texas-tech-for-purported-4-million-in-nil-earnings-next-year/

wait.. what!!!!! I had no idea the NIL paid that well.

Yea, it's nuts. I think Toppin's NIL dollar figure may be the highest of anyone in the country. If JT went late first he'd be looking at $2.75 million or so next year. If he went 30s, he'd be looking at $2 million first year. As a 40s pick he'd make $1.25 million. If he slipped so far as to only get a 2way, he'd be at $650k ....

Obviously, made the right choice, unless he truly thought he'd move up into the teens or just wanted to get the clock started on his rookie deal and be 1 yr closer to his first extension. But ... yea, how can you be 19 and say no to $4 million bucks to go to college for another year?

[165bows]

When are you gonna get around to suggesting Drake Powell? Seems like the perfect kind of innocuous guy for you to say we'll take mid 2nd after trading down. I've been waiting for it for a while now.

Seems like a definitely ok prospect though I don’t know that much about him. I don’t love that mold though, I think I figured that out from Dean D, the 6’6” wing can be the most over rated guy.

But for a freshman he’s got decent numbers but nothing dramatic either.

I’m really after the mold of guy that has plus plus versatility and is a solid or better all around defender. Plus shooting and passing.

He’s just giving me Harrison Ingram flashbacks.

Last sentence sums up the dream. I’ll even leave a little versatility off the table if you get all the rest at where were picking.

Apparently Powell is also going to be 20 years old on draft night which isn't a huge selling point.

Though he is similar to Ingram in having an extremely familiar yet also forgettable name for an NBA player.

[Dogen]

Forward JT Toppin announces he will forgo the NBA draft and return to Texas Tech for more money. Bummer, he was one of my guys. They say he got $4 mil to return

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/news/jt-toppin-spurns-nba-draft-will-return-to-texas-tech-for-purported-4-million-in-nil-earnings-next-year/

wait.. what!!!!! I had no idea the NIL paid that well.

Me, after hearing this news:

[redslastlaugh]

If they gave me $4 million to go to Texas Tech for a year, lol
Graduate? Why graduate?! lol
Also, Texas tech in my day, late 1990s, early 2000s had a strong rep as a top 3 hottest college girls school in Texas… lol
So … college, beer, and 4 million …. Lol … I’d still be there lol

[Bill Lumbergh]

Bogo Markovic declares for the draft.
https://meridiansport.rs/kosarka/vreme-za-novog-dijamanta-bogoljub-markovic-izlazi-na-nba-draft/

Honestly, this guy looks like he could rise in the predraft process. But not too far because he's too risky a type. I think teams feel like he's reminding them of aleksej pokusevski, which is something I kinda like because it will put a lid on Markovic's draft stock.

When a player is really hitting in the NBA then a comp-lite player will go too high in the next draft because GMs are chasing the hottest thing. Remember after D Wade drove the Heat to the 2006 championship, alot of front offices were looking for the "next Dwyane Wade" and all of a sudden Randy Foye is a top 7 pick because he reminds teams of Wade.

The opposite is also true. If the most recent comp for a player was a big bust, like Poku, then the next iteration, in this case Markovic, gets unfairly penalized because GM's don't want pick a player that looks like a bust, because that's too risky for the GM.

So, in short, i think Markovic could be pretty interesting, has a chance to rise because of size/shooting but won't rise too high because of Poku. I am intrigued, let's just say.

He looks very intriguing. Good skills and athleticism for a guy that tall. He's got a much better frame than Poku did. He can add weight and muscle. You're right about front offices trying to hit on a certain archetype if a guy before them hit. Likewise avoiding them if that type missed, like Poku, and Bender before him. I hope we at least bring this guy in for a workout.

[Hal14]

Bennett Stirtz has the best composite score on Bart Torvik's college database.

Stirtz is staying in school - transferring to Iowa.

[Hal14]

Ok Smart2Nesmith..your guy Raynaud is growing on me as a potential C's target.

I think we need a big. And we know the C's prefer shooters.

Raynaud has solid shooting indicators. 6.6 3PA/30 mins which is a very high number for a big. 77% FT this season and 34% from 3.

Kind of a funky looking shot, how he brings the ball back behind himself like that and then shoots it, but it seems to work for him..some of the shots I've seen he still manages to catch and shoot it fairly quickly. And other guys (like Bird) shot it in a similar way by bringing the ball back and then shooting it..

Read on Twitter

He plays hard, seems to have good feel. And I've mentioned usage % as a good indicator. Raynaud had a 31% usage which is VERY high for a big.

He checks a lot of boxes. And is likely to go in the 2nd round..possibly late in the 1st.

We gotta at least bring him in for a workout. The more I watch him play..man, he could really learn some stuff from KP..

He'll be 22.2 on draft day. So that means he's a little older, less of a development project..more of a ready to contribute guy which are guys who seem to work out better for us (Pritchard, Hauser, Scheierman)

Trade down, snag Raynaud with like the 35th pick and call it a day.

[Dogen]

Ok Smart2Nesmith..your guy Raynaud is growing on me as a potential C's target.

I think we need a big. And we know the C's prefer shooters.

Raynaud has solid shooting indicators. 6.6 3PA/30 mins which is a very high number for a big. 77% FT this season and 34% from 3.

Kind of a funky looking shot, how he brings the ball back behind himself like that and then shoots it, but it seems to work for him..some of the shots I've seen he still manages to catch and shoot it fairly quickly. And other guys (like Bird) shot it in a similar way by bringing the ball back and then shooting it..

Read on Twitter

He plays hard, seems to have good feel. And I've mentioned usage % as a good indicator. Raynaud had a 31% usage which is VERY high for a big.

He checks a lot of boxes. And is likely to go in the 2nd round..possibly late in the 1st.

We gotta at least bring him in for a workout. The more I watch him play..man, he could really learn some stuff from KP..

He'll be 22.2 on draft day. So that means he's a little older, less of a development project..more of a ready to contribute guy which are guys who seem to work out better for us (Pritchard, Hauser, Scheierman)

Trade down, snag Raynaud with like the 35th pick and call it a day.

Lately my 2 pick choices have been Raynaud + someone else TBD. He's been the steady choice

Not sure where he'll be picked but somewhere in that 28-35 range seems about right. He could be a relatively early contributor, a la Scheierman. A 7ft floor spacer with capable defense. Not much of a post player but his passing out of the high post looks exceptional. He could be that shooting big to groom into an Al/KP backup.

I wonder about trading #28 back into 2 seconds, one a 2025 mid-2nd, the other a future pick. Then get Raynaud if there at #32, the second 2nd goes toward a high upside younger guy that can develop in Maine. The best wing or guard available. If Pettiford or Philon stay in the draft and slide. Or, dare I say it... the dreaded Theiro!

The Nets at #36, for example. What are they going to do with all those picks? They could be stacking assets in the first round and trying to trade up. Might be a trading partner.

[Hal14]

Here's my updated personal big board.

Read on Twitter

Some good options in the 20-33 range here for the Celtics to potentially target..

In particular:
Markovic
Wolf
Broome
Haugh
Raynaud
Lendeborg
Fleming

Not necessarily in that order..but it'll be interesting to see which of these names BOS brings in for a pre-draft workout. Pre-draft workouts will probably start up soon..

[playa-hater]

Ok Smart2Nesmith..your guy Raynaud is growing on me as a potential C's target.

I think we need a big. And we know the C's prefer shooters.

Raynaud has solid shooting indicators. 6.6 3PA/30 mins which is a very high number for a big. 77% FT this season and 34% from 3.

Kind of a funky looking shot, how he brings the ball back behind himself like that and then shoots it, but it seems to work for him..some of the shots I've seen he still manages to catch and shoot it fairly quickly. And other guys (like Bird) shot it in a similar way by bringing the ball back and then shooting it..

Read on Twitter

He plays hard, seems to have good feel. And I've mentioned usage % as a good indicator. Raynaud had a 31% usage which is VERY high for a big.

He checks a lot of boxes. And is likely to go in the 2nd round..possibly late in the 1st.

We gotta at least bring him in for a workout. The more I watch him play..man, he could really learn some stuff from KP..

He'll be 22.2 on draft day. So that means he's a little older, less of a development project..more of a ready to contribute guy which are guys who seem to work out better for us (Pritchard, Hauser, Scheierman)

Trade down, snag Raynaud with like the 35th pick and call it a day.

And what is your take on defense etc.. and what about vertical spacing? Smart2Nesmith or Hal14?? or anyone who has seen him?

As for where he may be drafted, very hard to say. If he impresses teams at workouts or does bad, would it really surprise anyone that he may go late teens or even late 2nd rd??

Right now, I am all about a good Bigman draft. preferably nice skill versatility with reasonable defense of course.

[Hal14]

Ok Smart2Nesmith..your guy Raynaud is growing on me as a potential C's target.

I think we need a big. And we know the C's prefer shooters.

Raynaud has solid shooting indicators. 6.6 3PA/30 mins which is a very high number for a big. 77% FT this season and 34% from 3.

Kind of a funky looking shot, how he brings the ball back behind himself like that and then shoots it, but it seems to work for him..some of the shots I've seen he still manages to catch and shoot it fairly quickly. And other guys (like Bird) shot it in a similar way by bringing the ball back and then shooting it..

Read on Twitter

He plays hard, seems to have good feel. And I've mentioned usage % as a good indicator. Raynaud had a 31% usage which is VERY high for a big.

He checks a lot of boxes. And is likely to go in the 2nd round..possibly late in the 1st.

We gotta at least bring him in for a workout. The more I watch him play..man, he could really learn some stuff from KP..

He'll be 22.2 on draft day. So that means he's a little older, less of a development project..more of a ready to contribute guy which are guys who seem to work out better for us (Pritchard, Hauser, Scheierman)

Trade down, snag Raynaud with like the 35th pick and call it a day.

And what is your take on defense etc.. and what about vertical spacing? Smart2Nesmith or Hal14?? or anyone who has seen him?

As for where he may be drafted, very hard to say. If he impresses teams at workouts or does bad, would it really surprise anyone that he may go late teens or even late 2nd rd??

Right now, I am all about a good Bigman draft. preferably nice skill versatility with reasonable defense of course.

Decent defense. Not elite but not terrible.

Same with the vertical spacing.

The sell w/ Raynaud is being a 7'1" big who can shoot, pass and put the ball on the floor. And at age 22, he's more plug and play, less of a development project. He's got good toughness, plays hard, has good basketball IQ.

A guy like that in the late 1st/early 2nd round could turn out to be good value.

[Bill Lumbergh]

Much as Markovic looks intriguing, I think he'd only be considered with our second pick, and only as a stash guy. There's just no room on the big squad for a developmental guy imo. I do like Raynaud a good bit. Just watched him for the first time last night. I understand that in a manner of speaking, all rookies are developmental, but some guys are much closer to being able to contribute than others. Raynaud fits a positional need as well as just being good. I think Joe would like his versatility. Kalkbrenner is such a plodder compared to him.